ABC News projects that Beshear will win re-election as governor of Kentucky. In national elections Kentucky has been reliably Republican, and Trump won the state by nearly 26 points in 2020. But Beshear has been popular with the state's voters and way ahead in fundraising. The vote stands at 53 to 47 percent, with 83 percent of the expected vote in. Kentucky is a unique case, but this could give Democrats, worried about Biden's favorability numbers, an emotional boost ahead of the presidential campaign season.

—Monica Potts, 538

Well, right on cue Nathaniel: It seems Democrat Russet Perry probably has the upper hand on Republican Juan Pablo Segura in the 31st Senate District. Most of the remaining vote appears to be mail ballots, based on data from the Virginia Public Access Project, which are more likely to be Democratic-leaning because of the partisan split in preferred voting method in the post-2020 world. Along with the seeming Democratic edge in the GOP-held 16th District, this would be enough to give Democrats 21 of 40 seats in the state Senate — should results hold.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Geoffrey, as you wrote in your preview of the Virginia legislative races, Senate District 16 may have been Democrats’ easiest pickup opportunity in the state Senate. Although it had a GOP incumbent, the district voted for Democrats by 6 points in the 2021 governor’s race and 10 points in 2022 House races. The real test for the party will be winning that 21st seat. Perhaps their best bet is Senate District 31 in the D.C. exurbs, where they currently lead 51 percent to 49 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

With 74 percent of the expected vote in, Beshear is still leading Cameron by 4 points, 52 to 48 percent. It's still early, but it's a promising sign for the incumbent.

—Monica Potts, 538