What's going on in Georgia, one of the newest swing states?
Georgia is a new battleground in the post-2000 "red state, blue state" era. While statewide races had not really been highly contested before then, it has since trended left compared to the country as a whole. In 2016, Trump carried the state by 5 percentage points, which was the state's closest margin in a presidential race over the past two decades until Biden won it by just 0.2 points — becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to win there since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Trump really needs to capture Georgia's 16 electoral votes to give himself a good shot at hitting the magic majority number of 270 nationally. Without knowing how other states will vote, 538's forecast suggests that Trump would have about a 4-in-5 shot at winning the presidency if he ends up carrying Georgia. But if Harris claims it, she would have about a 9-in-10 chance of becoming the next president.
And polls once again show an extremely close race in Georgia. Trump leads slightly less than 1 point in 538's polling average of the state. Although Trump holds a slight edge, his standing against Harris is significantly closer than it was against Biden, who trailed Trump by about 6 points when he stepped aside in late July.
Like Biden, Harris will need overwhelming support from Black voters in Georgia. At nearly one-third of the population, the Peach State has the largest population and proportion of Black Americans of any of the seven main swing states. In 2020, about 30% of Georgia voters identified as Black, according to exit polls, and nearly 90% backed Biden. Yet recent polls suggest that Harris may be running shy of Biden's 2020 support level, while Trump is running a bit ahead of his roughly 10% haul in 2020. Taken together, these potential shifts would notably improve Trump's chances of winning the state in 2024.
Trump can once again expect to win a sizable majority of white voters in the South, which has a higher degree of racially polarized voting than any other part of the country. Still, it's possible he might lose a little ground in Georgia, specifically: In 2020, Trump won about 70% of Georgia's white voters, but he's garnering a little less than that in recent polls, while Harris is polling right around the 30% that Biden carried.
Now, Georgia saw a sizable education split among its white voters last time around, with white voters without a four-year college degree going overwhelmingly for Trump (80% to 20%) but those with a degree only preferring him slightly (55% to 44%). How much Harris can recreate Biden's coalition among college-educated voters in particular will be pivotal to the Georgia outcome. Recent polls in the state that have data for college-educated voters have found Harris running a little behind Biden's 57% among the group as a whole (including voters of color).