Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

Remember, dear reader, the presidential primary is all about the delegates. So far Trump has 276 to Haley's 43. That total is so lopsided that the only real question left is when, not if, Trump will win. The next big primary day is March 12 — let's take a look at what Trump needs to do today in order to clinch the delegate majority of 1,215 on the 12th.

Here's the math: There are 199 delegates up for grabs in contests between March 8 and March 12. Assuming he wins all of those 199 delegates, he would need to win 1,215 - 199 = 1,016 by the time all Super Tuesday ballots are counted. As noted, he's already won 276 of those delegates, meaning he has to pick up 769 delegates more, out of the 865 delegates up for grabs tonight. That's about 89% — which is a little higher than the 87% of delegates he has won from states that have voted so far.

Trump could totally pull that off, in which case we would start calling him the "presumptive nominee" next Tuesday. Otherwise, he will have to wait until March 19, when there are 370 more delegates up for grabs.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

5:01

Colorado Rep. Ken Buck on Super Tuesday races

With delegates up for grabs in 16 states, Colorado Rep. Ken Buck gives his analysis of the Super Tuesday races.

ABCNews.com

If you feel like sitting on the edge of your seat, like we do, The New York Times Needle is back in action tonight and has Haley ever-so-slightly ahead in Vermont at the moment.

—Monica Potts, 538

Earlier I wrote that although more Republican women are running, the GOP conference is still largely represented by men. North Carolina, where polls just closed, nicely illustrates some of the reasons that Republican women continue to trail Democratic women by such large margins, in Congress. North Carolina has low female representation in their state legislature (which is just 29 percent female), and that limits their recruitment from that pool. And in today's open primaries in safely Republican districts where the GOP primary will effectively decide the next representative, women aren't among the most competitive. As Kaleigh wrote earlier, in the 8th District outside Charlotte, the two GOP front runners are state Rep. John Bradford, and Baptist minister Mark Harris. And in the 10th District, the race is largely between state Rep. Grey Mills and Pat Harrigan, a gun manufacturer. There are several non-incumbent women running in the state today, but none of the groups we are watching that support Republican women (Winning for Women, VIEW-PAC, E-PAC or Maggie's List) have made endorsements.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

ABC News projects that Trump will win Virginia's Republican presidential primary. We'll have to wait to see how the final totals break down, but this isn't much of a surprise considering Trump had comfortably led most polling of the GOP race in the Old Dominion. Now, Virginia's more highly-educated population and Trump's weaker performance there in 2016 probably makes it one of Haley's better states tonight. Yet the fact the result there has already been projected less than a half hour after polls closed may foreshadow a Trump sweep tonight. Loudoun County's early returns demonstrate how Haley is coming up short: Sitting outside of Washington, D.C., in vote-rich northern Virginia, Loudoun is a Democratic-leaning and highly affluent county — the kind of place Haley has done better in. But she's still trailing Trump there by around 6 percentage points, 52 percent to 46 percent, with one-third of the expected vote reporting.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

1:25

Trump projected to win Virginia Republican primary

ABC News projects that Trump will win the Virginia Republican primary based on analysis of the exit poll and vote in so far.

ABCNews.com