The Note: From Your First Cigarette

ByABC News
November 6, 2006, 9:54 AM

— -- WASHINGTON, Nov. 6

All politics is local, except when it is national, and elections are always about the future, except when they are about the past.

With those two matters cleared up . . . .

What Republicans have:
The ground game (read this super-mega-must-read Los Angeles Times story now LINK, and then come back to The Note); Gallup; Ken Mehlman; the practical and psychological power of the Bush-Rove five-election winning streak; Vice President Cheney off the trail for the last 48 hours; FLOTUS; "we might not be perfect, but have you gotten a load of them!?"; Dr. Dobson.

What Democrats have:
Iraq; change versus more of the same; anti-Bush feeling; the everything's-relative steely discipline of Dean/Pelosi/Reid; the sixth-year itch; well-recruited candidates who have followed Rahm's and Chuck's First Rule ("Don't f--k this up."); John Kerry off the trail; Bill Clinton on the trail; scandals (which the White House will be sure to tell you on Wednesday cost their side a dozen House seats); Rumsfeld and the Army Times.

President Bush and First Lady Laura Bush campaign all day together beginning in Florida at a Florida Victory rally in Pensacola at 2:25 pm ET.

Republican Florida gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, who was originally scheduled to attend the rally with President Bush has decided to campaign elsewhere in the Sunshine State today. Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) of the 2000 Florida recount fame and GOP Senate candidate is scheduled to attend. (Insert your own joke or Frank Richian coda here.)

Public and private polling in Florida shows that Crist has seen a 15 point lead a few weeks ago drop down to a mid-to-high single digit lead now.

"President Bush and Charlie Crist are the only two politicians in America who believe that our state and our nation should stay the course," said Davis for Governor communication director Josh Earnest. "Since they have so much in common and Charlie Crist thinks President Bush deserves a 'B,' then why won't he show up to campaign with him?"

Davis does not intend to cede all the local news coverage to the President today. After events in Jacksonville and Tallahassee, the Democrat plans to campaign in Pensacola, FL at 5:30 pm ET.

President and Mrs. Bush then head to an Arkansas Victory rally with GOP Arkansas gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson at 5:25 pm ET, followed by a Governor 2006 rally with Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) in Dallas, TX at 8:00 pm ET. The First Couple overnights at the "Western White House" in Crawford, TX.

In a tailor-made-for-Jon-Stewart development, Vice President Cheney has concluded his 2006 campaigning and is participating in his annual hunting trip. The White House insists that Cheney is not avoiding being out on the trail, he's simply keeping his long planned excursion, reports ABC News' Karen Travers. This is the first time Mr. Cheney has gone hunting since he shot and wounded his friend Harry Whittington in February.

Travers also reports that Cheney was in South Dakota on a hunting trip for the midterm elections in 2002. The White House also Notes that Cheney has done 117 total campaign events -- 59 House events, 20 Senate events, 4 gubernatorial events, and 34 events for the national Republican Party committees and state Republican parties. Cheney did four victory rallies in the last week. The AP has it too: LINK

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), chairman of DSCC holds an on-camera briefing to discuss Senate races -- and Iraq -- today at 1:00 pm ET at the Mott House Conference Room adjacent to the DSCC headquarters in Washington, DC.

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) attended a rally at the Vienna Metro Station with Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) at 7:00 am ET in Vienna, VA. Later, Allen attends rallies at Norfolk International Airport in Norfolk, VA at 12:00 pm ET, Wyndham Roanoke Hotel at 2:30 pm ET in Roanoke, VA and at Richmond International Airport at 5:30 pm ET.

Allen's opponent Jim Webb (D-VA) campaigns all over Virginia with former Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA). Their first stop was in Roanoke at 8:30 am ET. Webb is joined on the trail by Bill Clinton at a rally in Alexandria, VA at 5:15 pm ET.

President Clinton then heads back up to Rhode Island for what Democrats hope will provide a last-minute boost to Sheldon Whitehouse's efforts to defeat Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI). The Clinton/Whitehouse rally is planned for 9:00 pm ET in Warwick, RI.

Clinton's former Number Two, Vice President Al Gore, rallies with Rep. Ben Cardin (D-MD) at 2:00 pm ET in Silver Spring, MD.

Sen. Hillary Clinton marked a campaign stop at the Parkchester subway stop at 6:45 am ET in Bronx, NY. Mrs. Clinton also was scheduled to speak at the USS Intrepid "On Leave" ceremony at the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum at 8:45 am ET in New York, NY.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) started off a busy campaign swing through the South today attending two GOTV rallies for Republican senatorial candidate Bob Corker. The Senator was to make two stops this morning with Corker at 7:00 am ET in Johnson City, TN and at 9:30 am ET in Knoxville, TN.

McCain also attends an event for GOP gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist at Sheltair Aviation Services airport in Jacksonville, FL at 11:30 am ET. (That's right, Crist canceled his plans to be with President Bush, but still plans to stand with Sen. McCain today. Insert your own Rove-Weaver wry remark here.)

This afternoon, McCain attends a GOTV rally for Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) at Eclipse Aviation at 4:30 pm ET in Albuquerque, NM. Mr. McCain later attends a GOTV rally for the Arizona GOP in Prescott, AZ at 7:00 pm ET.

Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI) gets campaign support from actor Michael J. Fox who attends a get-out-the-vote rally at Serb Hall at 9:30 am ET in Milwaukee, WI. Fox then heads down to Arizona to close out the campaign season with Jim Pederson and congressional candidate Harry Mitchell in Tucson, AZ.

DNC chairman Howard Dean -- a man who knows that any good 50-state strategy starts at home -- attends a meet and greet with the Vermont Democratic Party in Burlington at 2:00 pm ET and participates in a neighborhood canvas with gubernatorial candidate Scudder Parker (D-VT), Lt. Gov. candidate Matt Dunne, and other Democratic leaders at 2:30 pm ET.

Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) campaigns for Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) at the Minnesota Professional Firefighters headquarters in St. Louis Park, MN at 9:00 am ET. He also heads to Iowa to attend two campaign events for Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA) at Johnny's Italian Steakhouse in Des Moines, IA at 6:45 pm ET and at West Delaware Middle School in Manchester, IA at 10:00 pm ET.

Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun Times writes up Sen. Obama's, much like Giuliani, wrapping up his 2006 campaigning in Iowa this evening. Obama also plans to campaign for his Illinois colleagues Tammy Duckworth and Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL) today. LINK

Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) rallies in Creve Coeur, Columbia, Independence, and Springfield, MO today. His senior colleague, Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO), plans to be with him every step of the way.

Talent's opponent, Democrat Claire McCaskill, does some phone-banking in St. Louis and door-to-door GOTV in Kansas City, MO today.

Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) began his day on Bob Corker's home turf in Chattanooga, TN. He called into IMUS this morning and plans to be on CNN's Larry King Live this evening at 9:00 pm ET. Ford also plans to campaign in Knoxville and Centerville, TN today before wrapping up with a Memphis, TN rally this evening.

Gov. George Pataki plans to hit the Empire State campaign trail today. Pataki plans to meet and greet voters with Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NRCC) in North Tonawanda, NY at 11:30 am ET.

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) attends a get-out-the-vote rally with Democrat Baron Hill -- who is seeking to return to Congress to represent Indiana's 9th congressional district -- at 12:00 pm ET in Clarksville, IN. Sen. Bayh also heads to two get-out-the-vote rallies with congressional candidate Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) at 1:15 pm ET and at Plumbers & Pipefitters headquarters in Evansville, IN at 6:00 pm ET.

Vice President Al Gore and Tipper Gore -- two people who know where their base is -- attend an event hosted by the American Society of Association Executives and the Center for Association Leadership on the environment at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts at 8:00 pm ET in Washington, DC.

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