The Note: Broad field means race for narrow slices in New Hampshire
Bernie Sanders or any other potential winner of the primary might not crack 30%.
The TAKE with Rick Klein
Four years ago, Sen. Bernie Sanders blew Hillary Clinton away in New Hampshire, locking down 60% of the vote, powered by an astonishing gap among young voters, an upsurge in liberal turnout and a broad perception that the party needed someone perceived as an outsider.
He could win the state again Tuesday night, and for similar reasons. Yet Sanders or any other potential winner of the New Hampshire primary might not crack 30%.
Sanders could conceivably coast to another victory, but not with anything like the clear message he derived from his win last cycle. Or someone else could pull off a surprise that would rock the early stages of the Democratic race.
So it is that a split and delayed decision in Iowa could lead straight into a splintered outcome in New Hampshire.
Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg comes in with a hot hand but facing the sustained attacks of his campaign. Sen. Amy Klobuchar looks to ride a strong debate back into the conversation. Sen. Elizabeth Warren sees whether playing her own game gets results in her neighborhood. Former Vice President Joe Biden probably finds out what another hit looks like.
Sanders, meanwhile, has been free to do what Sanders does -- mostly though not entirely untouched by his opponents. But even his space is crowded in New Hampshire, with Andrew Yang and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- in addition to Warren's appeal to progressives and Buttigieg's to young voters -- sucking up support from overlapping voting blocs.
It's insanely early in the voting process for Democrats to panic about the consequences of being divided. But they are looking at a New Hampshire race that could presage even more divisions, even as they root for a cleaner finish than they went through in Iowa.
The New Hampshire Primary
The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks
The days before the Iowa caucuses were really weird. Several of the top-tier candidates were not physically there.
In New Hampshire this week, no one can miss the fact that the senators are back in the arena -- untethered from Washington and the impeachment trial -- and fighting like crazy.
Klobuchar and Warren packed in crazy days with four or five formal events and off-the-cuff stops at diners in between.
Sanders, too, closed out events in the state on the eve of the primary with a powerful image -- an arena-filled rock concert with a crowd that other Democrats would beg for. The huge event was a power-play meant to build a split screen, rivaling to the president's rally 40 minutes away.
It's has been easy to try to categorize the candidates into the race: progressive versus moderate, young versus old, male and female. In the end, the Democratic voters are mix-matching and swinging in between all possible lanes.
They want someone who can beat the president, who can bring the fight and the energy. And their opinion on who that might be changes all the time, especially as many candidates seem to be ramping up.
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The TIP with Kendall Karson
The 2020 race's turbulent start in Iowa ushered in an unsettling fear for Democrats: what if the highly anticipated election doesn't reach expected turnout highs, fueling the party's hopes of ousting President Donald Trump? For Democrats, Iowa was supposed to kick off an election year that would make up for the last three, with the state party predicting 2020 turnout would rival 2008's record of 239,000. But that first contest delivered lower-than-expected turnout, with a little over 176,000 Iowans showing up to caucus -- barely scraping past 2016's lackluster numbers.
"It appears, what I have heard, is they are somewhat higher than they were in 2016. Not as high, frankly, as I would have liked to have seen," Sanders told reporters in the aftermath of Iowa.
Following the caucuses, New Hampshire Democrats reset expectations for their contest. Party chairman Ray Buckley started the year by suggesting that "record turnout" would overwhelm the Democratic race. But by Monday, a week after Iowa, he reversed course, telling reporters, "I don't think anyone is expecting a turnout like 2008 -- 2008 turnout was extraordinary. ... Not only the historic candidacies of then-Sens. Obama and Clinton, but the closest between Iowa and New Hampshire."
Despite flat turnout in Iowa, four days after the caucuses, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner released the office's predictions for turnout: a total of 420,000 ballots will be cast across both parties and he maintained that there will be a record-shattering 292,000 Democratic primary ballots.
THE PLAYLIST
ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. Tuesday morning's episode features ABC News Senior Congressional correspondent Mary Bruce in New Hampshire, who gets us ready for the night's primary. Then, FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver tells us what could lie ahead if former Vice President Joe Biden does not perform well. And, "Start Here" host Brad Mielke gives us a taste of midnight voting in Dixville Notch. http://apple.co/2HPocUL
FiveThirtyEight's "Politics Podcast." At a live show in Manchester, Hew Hampshire, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew previewed what to expect from the New Hampshire primary. They also debated the likelihood of a contested convention and played a round of "Guess What Americans Think." https://apple.co/23r5y7w
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