ABC News projects that Trump will win the New Hampshire Republican primary. He currently leads Haley 53 percent to 46 percent with 15 percent of the expected vote reporting. And based on where ballots remain to be counted, I'd expect that margin to widen.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

According to preliminary exit polls, Trump is doing about 10 points better with men than women in New Hampshire. In earlier primary polls, he was running more evenly, or better, with women. With Ramaswamy and DeSantis out of the race (and their endorsement of Trump), Trump likely picked up more support from male voters.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The first major news organization — the Associated Press — has called the New Hampshire Republican primary for Trump. Our colleagues at the ABC News decision desk, however, have not yet made a projection.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

There are a lot of arguments about whether the current nomination system that we have — influential early contests and the "invisible primary", where fundraising, polls and endorsements show which candidates have support — is effective. There's an argument that this system is effective at "winnowing" candidates who aren't able to unite the party behind them. But in the case of DeSantis dropping out on Sunday — unusual timing — it's not clear that this was especially effective winnowing. From a candidate perspective, maybe. DeSantis lost support as Trump gained it, and he didn't seem to especially strike people as an ascendant presidential figure.

DeSantis's departure from the race was good for consolidating the party around Trump at this stage, which is usually what parties want. But Trump is a complicated figure, and even as the GOP is increasingly his party, it's not totally straightforward. If your takeaway from the Iowa caucuses was that about 40 percent of caucusgoers preferred someone else, then it makes sense that a real contest between Trump and a competitor might have been good to have. Now the Haley campaign is trying to talk about a head-to-head contest. It's hard to know what a two-person race between Haley and Trump would have been like, and pretty difficult to imagine that Haley would be beating Trump now. But competition between Trump and an alternative might have been clearer if it had been a two-person race for longer.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

Haley has been on quite a tear in New Hampshire polls over the last two months. She stands at 36 percent in 538's final New Hampshire polling average, compared to 19 percent on Dec. 1, 2023. Just ahead of the Iowa caucuses, that surge had narrowed Trump's margin in the Granite State to a little over 10 percentage points, much lower than his average margin across the other states.

Since Iowa, however, Trump has also surged in New Hampshire, shooting up to 54 percent percent, his best number of the whole cycle in the state. He is now 18 points ahead of Haley. It's likely Trump gained some votes from Ramaswamy, who was ideologically closest to him and endorsed the former president on stage in Iowa after withdrawing following his poor performance there. It is also possible that Trump will get a last-minute bump from DeSantis's drop out and endorsement on Sunday that is not fully captured by the polls.

Haley hitting, say, 40 percent in New Hampshire would be a feat. Across the polls we've collected, no other candidate even came close to that mark in any state. With such a showing, Haley could, somewhat credibly, claim a moral victory heading into Nevada and South Carolina next month. But, of course, moral victories do not win nominations.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538