Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Haley suspends her campaign

Haley is now speaking live from Charleston, South Carolina, and she just announced she is suspending her campaign. There are now no major Republican candidates left running against Trump.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Trump wins Alaska and Utah

While you were sleeping, ABC News projected Trump as the winner in the last two presidential contests: Alaska and Utah. Trump currently leads in Alaska 88 percent to 12 percent and in Utah 57 percent to 42 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Good morning!

After a full-ish night's sleep, we're back on the live blog as the winners of several House primaries from Super Tuesday remain unknown. However, the big news this morning is that campaign sources are telling ABC News that Haley will suspend her campaign for president after winning just one primary yesterday, making Trump the presumptive Republican nominee. She will deliver remarks at 10 a.m. Eastern, and we'll cover it live right here.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Wrapping up for now

It's just past 2 a.m., and we've got major results in from most of Super Tuesday's wide-ranging slate of primary contests. So far, Trump has won at least 12 of the 15 states holding GOP presidential nominating contests, while Haley has won Vermont — though whether she hits a 50 percent (plus one vote) threshold of victory there will determine the exact number of delegates she takes home.

Either way, with an estimated 943 total delegates to Haley's 86 so far, per ABC News projections, Trump's well on his way to securing the magic delegate majority number of 1,215 — though it will take at least another week. He's so far secured 667 delegates tonight and is likely to hit the 769 mark that Elliott noted earlier would set him up to mathematically clinch the nomination on March 12. Of course, we're all watching to see if Haley drops out sooner.

In other highlights:

- As expected, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein secured their parties' respective nominations, and will go head to head in what's expected to be a close general election contest for governor.

- Rep. Colin Allred locked up the Democratic nomination in Texas's Senate race, and will face off against Sen. Ted Cruz in the general.

- Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff secured not only the top spot in a top-two primary, but also a likely glide path to the nomination, as the second spot on November's ballot went to Republican Steve Garvey instead of a second Democrat.

We're still tracking a dozen-odd downballot races that have yet to be projected, and awaiting presidential primary results in Utah and Alaska, so we'll see you back here tomorrow ... er, later today, with more results and analysis!

—Tia Yang, 538


Trump leads in primary polls in virtually every state

If the polls are right, there will be very little drama tonight in presidential races: Trump has massive leads over Haley in virtually every state. For instance, here's what our primary polling averages say in the six states with enough polling to calculate one:

Trump also leads by at least 42 percentage points in the few state-level polls we have this year from Alabama, Maine, Minnesota and Oklahoma. His lead is smaller, though still substantial, in the most recent surveys of Utah (27 points) and Vermont (30 points). Unfortunately, we're flying blind in the last three states; we don't have any polls of Arkansas since last fall, or any polls of Alaska or Colorado, period.

But what if … the polls are wrong? Even in the states where we've calculated averages, there is precious little truly recent polling. The only polls of Super Tuesday states conducted entirely within the last month were four of California, two of Maine, one of Minnesota, two of North Carolina, one of Texas, one of Vermont and one of Virginia. That's not a lot of data to go off.

Plus, primary polls so far this year have overestimated Trump's margin over Haley. This isn't necessarily unusual; since 2000, presidential primary polls have had an average error of 9 points. But the fact that the direction of that error has been consistent so far is … interesting. We usually caution against trying to predict the direction of polling error in advance, but this could — could — indicate that pollsters' likely-voter models for the primary are too weighted toward the Trump wing of the GOP.

As Geoffrey and I wrote yesterday, there are certain states — Colorado, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia — that seem demographically favorable for Haley. Despite what the polls say, I wouldn't be totally shocked if Haley pulled off a win in one of them. As noted, Colorado hasn't seen any polling this cycle, and Massachusetts hasn't seen any in a month. And while a poll gave Trump a 30-point lead in Vermont a few weeks back, the most recent poll of Virginia put Trump's lead over Haley at just 8 points among likely voters.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538