Toppling of Syria's Assad most important moment in recent Middle East history: Reporter's notebook

LONDON -- This is a truly historic day, one many of us thought would never come.

On Sunday, rebel forces in Syria captured the capital Damascus and toppled the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in a lightning-quick advance across the country.

I first crossed into Syria with smugglers in 2011 as popular protests were sweeping through the country. I reported on only one story for the following few years.

The short-lived Arab Spring was in full bloom, and Syrians had watched Tunisia, Egypt and Libya with hope in their hearts. Decades of oppression in the chokehold of first Hafez al-Assad and then his son Bashar had created a vast reservoir of resentment.

This was truly a homegrown uprising, almost a family affair. By early summer 2012, a large-scale armed rebellion was underway. At first, Assad's poorly motivated, ill-disciplined army was a poor match for the Sunni-led popular rebellion. The minority Alawite-led regime had persecuted, subjugated and discriminated against much of the country's Sunni majority for decades.

The regime responded with deadly force, gunning down peaceful protesters. And so in turn, the protesters became rebels, taking up arms and daring to take on Assad and the allies who came to his rescue: Iran, Hezbollah, Russia and a host of other Shia militias.

Russia provided air, weapon and artillery support to the regime, as well as mercenary fighters -- primarily to protect its own interests in the Middle East and its naval base in Latakia, Syria's principal port city and a strategically important foothold on the Mediterranean. Iran, long an ally and sponsor of Assad and Syria as a key node in its Axis of Resistance, stepped up its military presence to protect its client and secure weapons flows and influence. And Hezbollah, the Iranian-sponsored group designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and others, flooded the front lines with some of its best fighters. Together, they halted and ultimately reversed the rebel advance, although never completely, as the rebels clung to a small corner of northwest Syria.

The rebels were a fairly ragtag and disparate group of local men with a little external support, learning to be fighters. As the violence and death grew, so many groups became more radicalized. Most were Islamists of different shades, albeit more nationalist in outlook.

I still find it difficult to think of the countless people I have seen wounded and dying at the hands of Assad. Young Mohammed, peppered with shrapnel, writhing in agony in a makeshift hospital. The children whose school was hit with an incendiary bomb, and they were burned alive. It is a sight, a smell I will never forget.

The people of Syria never forgot, either.

We may never know how many hundreds of thousands of men, women and children died. The United Nations Human Rights Office estimated in June 2022 that the death toll over 10 years of the conflict was at least 306,000 people. But that was over two years ago and at the time, it acknowledged it was almost certainly an undercount. The United Nations has said over half the population has been forcibly displaced, with an estimated 5.4 million refugees in neighboring countries and almost 6.8 million refugees within the country as of 2022.

The world watched and the world largely did nothing. When Assad used chemical weapons against his own people, the Obama administration blinked. The so-called red line was indisputably crossed, but Russia played the U.S. brilliantly. Assad agreed to destroy his chemical weapons stockpile and the international community allowed him to continue to kill his people by more conventional means. Assad walked away scot-free while the U.S. and its allies turned their attention to the black flag of ISIS.

Here was something they could agree and act upon. It suited Assad perfectly. His regime also became an ally, although in practice it did little to take on the terror group, certainly far less than it was willing to do against the rebel fighters. (The Trump administration in 2018 ordered a strike on Syria in response to chemical attacks.)

So yes there are scenes of celebration now, but there won't be a Syrian at home or in exile who isn't also reminded of loved ones mercilessly slaughtered by Assad, Russia, Iran or Hezbollah. They will also remember how little the U.S. did to help.

It remains to be seen what hue the new Syrian government takes. Islamists have an unfortunate habit of allowing one man, one vote, one time. Maybe this will be different. If not, then expect Israel and the U.S. to have a say.

Syria has long been a lynchpin in the Shia crescent, allowing Iran to spread influence and weapons from Tehran to Iraq, Syria and into Lebanon. What happened Sunday has broken that chain in a way that will have huge consequences for the region. We must wait and see, but this is the most important moment in recent Middle Eastern history.