The Note: Broad field means race for narrow slices in New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders or any other potential winner of the primary might not crack 30%.

By
Rick Klein
 and
MaryAlice Parks
February 11, 2020, 6:01 AM ET
7 min read

The TAKE with Rick Klein

Four years ago, Sen. Bernie Sanders blew Hillary Clinton away in New Hampshire, locking down 60% of the vote, powered by an astonishing gap among young voters, an upsurge in liberal turnout and a broad perception that the party needed someone perceived as an outsider.

He could win the state again Tuesday night, and for similar reasons. Yet Sanders or any other potential winner of the New Hampshire primary might not crack 30%.

Sanders could conceivably coast to another victory, but not with anything like the clear message he derived from his win last cycle. Or someone else could pull off a surprise that would rock the early stages of the Democratic race.

So it is that a split and delayed decision in Iowa could lead straight into a splintered outcome in New Hampshire.

Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg comes in with a hot hand but facing the sustained attacks of his campaign. Sen. Amy Klobuchar looks to ride a strong debate back into the conversation. Sen. Elizabeth Warren sees whether playing her own game gets results in her neighborhood. Former Vice President Joe Biden probably finds out what another hit looks like.

Sanders, meanwhile, has been free to do what Sanders does -- mostly though not entirely untouched by his opponents. But even his space is crowded in New Hampshire, with Andrew Yang and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- in addition to Warren's appeal to progressives and Buttigieg's to young voters -- sucking up support from overlapping voting blocs.

It's insanely early in the voting process for Democrats to panic about the consequences of being divided. But they are looking at a New Hampshire race that could presage even more divisions, even as they root for a cleaner finish than they went through in Iowa.

The New Hampshire Primary

  • Polling locations close by 8 p.m.
  • What's at stake? 24 delegates
  • ABC will air special reports in primetime as voting results break and ABC News Live will provide special, comprehensive coverage and analysis beginning at 8 p.m.

    • The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

    The days before the Iowa caucuses were really weird. Several of the top-tier candidates were not physically there.

    In New Hampshire this week, no one can miss the fact that the senators are back in the arena -- untethered from Washington and the impeachment trial -- and fighting like crazy.

    Klobuchar and Warren packed in crazy days with four or five formal events and off-the-cuff stops at diners in between.

    Sanders, too, closed out events in the state on the eve of the primary with a powerful image -- an arena-filled rock concert with a crowd that other Democrats would beg for. The huge event was a power-play meant to build a split screen, rivaling to the president's rally 40 minutes away.

    It's has been easy to try to categorize the candidates into the race: progressive versus moderate, young versus old, male and female. In the end, the Democratic voters are mix-matching and swinging in between all possible lanes.

    They want someone who can beat the president, who can bring the fight and the energy. And their opinion on who that might be changes all the time, especially as many candidates seem to be ramping up.

    The TIP with Kendall Karson

    The 2020 race's turbulent start in Iowa ushered in an unsettling fear for Democrats: what if the highly anticipated election doesn't reach expected turnout highs, fueling the party's hopes of ousting President Donald Trump? For Democrats, Iowa was supposed to kick off an election year that would make up for the last three, with the state party predicting 2020 turnout would rival 2008's record of 239,000. But that first contest delivered lower-than-expected turnout, with a little over 176,000 Iowans showing up to caucus -- barely scraping past 2016's lackluster numbers.

    "It appears, what I have heard, is they are somewhat higher than they were in 2016. Not as high, frankly, as I would have liked to have seen," Sanders told reporters in the aftermath of Iowa.

    Following the caucuses, New Hampshire Democrats reset expectations for their contest. Party chairman Ray Buckley started the year by suggesting that "record turnout" would overwhelm the Democratic race. But by Monday, a week after Iowa, he reversed course, telling reporters, "I don't think anyone is expecting a turnout like 2008 -- 2008 turnout was extraordinary. ... Not only the historic candidacies of then-Sens. Obama and Clinton, but the closest between Iowa and New Hampshire."

    Despite flat turnout in Iowa, four days after the caucuses, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner released the office's predictions for turnout: a total of 420,000 ballots will be cast across both parties and he maintained that there will be a record-shattering 292,000 Democratic primary ballots.

    THE PLAYLIST

    ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. Tuesday morning's episode features ABC News Senior Congressional correspondent Mary Bruce in New Hampshire, who gets us ready for the night's primary. Then, FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver tells us what could lie ahead if former Vice President Joe Biden does not perform well. And, "Start Here" host Brad Mielke gives us a taste of midnight voting in Dixville Notch. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

    FiveThirtyEight's "Politics Podcast." At a live show in Manchester, Hew Hampshire, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew previewed what to expect from the New Hampshire primary. They also debated the likelihood of a contested convention and played a round of "Guess What Americans Think." https://apple.co/23r5y7w

    WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

  • Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., appears on ABC's "The View." Later, she hosts the "Amy For America Primary Night Party" at 7 p.m. in Concord, New Hampshire.
  • President Donald Trump participates in a signing ceremony for the Supporting Veterans in STEM Careers Act at 3:45 p.m. at the White House.
  • Andrew Yang attends a canvass launch and poll stop beginning at 9 a.m. in Keene, New Hampshire. He then participates in a canvass launch and poll stop beginning at 11:15 a.m. in Lebanon. Later, he takes part in a canvass launch and poll stop in Concord beginning at 1:30 p.m. Afterwards, he makes a stop at the University of New Hampshire in Durham at 3:30 p.m. He then holds a rally at 7 p.m. in Manchester.
  • Tom Steyer participates in a meet-and-greet event at noon in Gardnerville, Nevada. He also hosts a town hall at 6 p.m. in Reno.
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., leads a "New Hampshire Election Night Event" at 5 p.m. in Manchester, New Hampshire.
  • Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., hosts a "Primary Night Party" at 7 p.m. in Concord, New Hampshire.
  • Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, holds an Election Day party at 7 p.m. in Manchester, New Hampshire.
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., leads a rally at 7:30 p.m. in Manchester, New Hampshire.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden hosts a "Primary Night Event" at 8 p.m. in Nashua, New Hampshire.

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