Searching for a villain in Maryland Senate race, Angela Alsobrooks looks beyond Larry Hogan

GREENBELT, Md. -- As Democrats in Maryland tell it, the state's key Senate race isn't about any particular person -- even the candidates themselves.

On the campaign trail, you'll hear Democrats vying to keep an open Senate seat blue knocking former Gov. Larry Hogan, the GOP nominee. But you'll also hear lamentations about Sens. Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz, firebrands who are primed for committee chairmanships in a potential Republican-controlled Senate.

In paid television ads, you'll see videos painting Hogan as a partisan, not the moderate he cast himself as during two terms in Annapolis. But you'll also see attacks on outgoing Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, a vaunted political knife fighter and self-proclaimed "grim reaper" of liberal legislation.

That duality is a core feature of the campaign for Angela Alsobrooks, the Democratic nominee and Prince George's County executive -- as much as she's talking about her opponent, she's also sounding the alarm about a Senate she's hoping to join.

There are few motivators in politics as potent as fear and anger. But Alsobrooks is at a disadvantage in that regard -- Hogan left office in 2023 as a popular two-term governor with a reputation as a pragmatist before running for a Senate seat in a year when any race can determine the chamber's majority.

And while Alsobrooks and her allies are still casting Hogan as a Republican whose values are misaligned with deep-blue Maryland, particularly on abortion, they're also diverting some of their fire at prominent Senate Republicans and what they could do with committee gavels.

"Marylanders are very savvy. They understand that this race is about the 51st vote and about control of the Senate. It is bigger than Larry Hogan. It's actually bigger than me," Alsobrooks told ABC News Monday at an annual community barbecue her family hosts in Greenbelt, Maryland. "It is much bigger than any one person. It is about the future of our state and of our country and the kind of country that we want to build for our children."

The Senate race is tight, especially by Maryland's standards.

The 538 polling average shows Alsobrooks up by nearly 6 points in a state where Democratic presidential candidates typically romp by at least 25, a difference universally attributed to Hogan's entry into the race.

Hogan has continued to reinforce his reputation as a moderate, saying he'd vote to restore abortion protections that existed under Roe v. Wade and serve as a check on the GOP's more hard-line impulses. However, he has still said that as a lifelong Republican, he'd caucus with the GOP in the chamber, and Alsobrooks has made hay of his past record, including vetoing state legislation to expand abortion protections.

Still, the need to tie Hogan to bogeymen like Cruz, Graham and McConnell was underscored Monday, when conversations with nearly a dozen of Alsobrooks' most vocal supporters revealed little negative to say about the former governor, but a greater eye on the levers of power in Washington.

"I guess he's OK. He hasn't really done a bad job since he's been here in Maryland, but I think it's time for a fresh face," said Bertley Thomas, a retired teacher, about Hogan. "I am a lifelong Democrat, and so is Angela. Hogan happens to be a Republican, it doesn't mean I don't like him any less. However, I think we would like to see the Democrats control the Senate."

Waymon Lynch, a small business owner, said she voted for Hogan twice, but praised Alsobrooks' record as a local politician.

"He's definitely not the Trump wing of the party, no, not at all. That's not his history," Lynch said of Hogan. "And if it were someone other than Angela running against Mr. Hogan, I might consider him. But in this particular case, it goes a little bit further than that."

That's not to say voters aren't also considering the issues and where Hogan stands.

"I was really kind of concerned when all of a sudden he came out to run against her. I just feel that Democrats serve me and my needs, and I am for women's rights," said Valerie Callender, a dermatologist. "I know Angela is going to fight. She's a mother, and she believes in women's rights. And to take total control of their body, as a physician, I feel that's very important."

Nevertheless, the race's dynamics have left Alsobrooks with limited ability to run against her actual opponent, instead making future colleagues of the very chamber she hopes to join top antagonists in the race.

"Angela Alsobrooks is playing the best card she has to play. She is never going to win a contest of personality or popularity with former Gov. Hogan. He is just far too known and too well liked for her to change public opinion on that front. So, she has to run exclusively on the notion that, regardless of how one feels about Gov. Hogan personally, he can and would be the deciding vote in favor of tipping the Senate over to Republicans," said Maryland Democratic strategist Len Foxwell.

The argument requires voters to generalize the importance of the race beyond their state's borders, but Democrats are betting that Marylanders -- living in proximity to Washington and many working for the federal government -- are more attuned than the average voter on the current 51-49 Senate majority and the importance of chamber control.

"The beauty of it is that the voters we're talking about are voters in Maryland, and this is about one of the most savvy electorates that you can find, not just in the Washington suburbs, but throughout the state," said Maryland Democratic Party Chair Ken Ulman. "We know what this is about."

At the same time, Alsobrooks has work to do to define herself more concretely outside of her powerbase in Prince George's County, particularly in the vote-rich areas in and around Baltimore.

Alsobrooks is working to boost her own policy bona fides with a new ad out Wednesday, noting the threat of GOP Senate control but adding what she would "also" do as Maryland's senator, including taking on "price gouging" and standing "up for a woman's right to choose."

Hogan and his allies are trying to do the same, with a well-heeled supportive super PAC releasing an ad Wednesday hitting her over a CNN story alleging she improperly took tax deductions on properties in Maryland and Washington.

"Raising her name ID, especially in the Baltimore suburbs, is really important. When you see the polling, you still see Hogan has pretty universal name ID. We've got room to grow her ID," Ulman said.

To be certain, Alsobrooks is still viewed as having an advantage.

Vice President Kamala Harris is anticipated to win Maryland, one of the nation's bluest states, by as many as 30 points, possibly creating tailwinds long enough to carry Alsobrooks over the finish line and forcing Hogan to lean on a potentially unrealistic number of ticket splitters, voters who support one party for president and another in down-ballot races.

"If Larry Hogan doesn't win this race, from what I've seen thus far, it has very little to do with whatever Angela Alsobrooks is doing," said Doug Mayer, a former Hogan aide. "If Larry Hogan doesn't win this, it's just because it's extremely difficult to have a million switch voters. If anyone can do it, it's him.

And while operatives of all stripes agreed that Hogan is the only person who could make the race competitive, Democrats' emphasis on the threat of Republicans who Marylanders are less familiar with and more aligned with former President Donald Trump could help Alsobrooks lean into her state's existing partisan advantage, experts said.

"With the base energized in a presidential year, I find it implausible to think that there will be enough ticket splitters, and we're reminding people every day what the stakes are," said Ulman, who was the Democratic lieutenant governor nominee in 2014 when Hogan won his first term. "Nobody will take the former governor more seriously than me, having seen his success in the past, but it just makes the math very, very hard in a presidential year."