Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

Over the weekend, ABC News reported that Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse was projected to win reelection in Washington's 4th District. Newhouse is one of just two House Republicans still in office who voted to impeach Trump back in 2021, and it looks like both will win reelection. (David Valadao's race is still unprojected, but he is winning by a comfortable margin.)

But we already knew Newhouse's seat was a guaranteed hold for Republicans because Newhouse's opponent, Jerrod Sessler, was also a Republican. The Newhouse-Sessler race was one of seven same-party general elections for the House, a setup that's possible because of California's, Louisiana's and Washington's top-two primary systems. There were two other head-to-head matchups between Republicans on this year's ballot:

- In California's 20th District, Rep. Vince Fong is projected to defeat Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux 66% to 34%. Boudreaux withdrew from this race after Fong won a special election between the two of them earlier this year.
- In Louisiana's 4th District, Speaker Mike Johnson easily fended off teacher Joshua Morott 86% to 14%.

And here's how the Democrat-versus-Democrat races shook out:

- In California's 12th District, Bay Area Rapid Transit Board of Directors President Lateefah Simon is projected to defeat professor Jennifer Tran 64% to 36%.
- In California's 16th District, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo is projected to hold off Assemblyman Evan Low 59% to 41%.
- In California's 34th District, Rep. Jimmy Gomez is projected to defeat David Kim 56% to 44% in what was the pair's third consecutive general-election matchup.
- Lastly, in Washington's 9th District, Rep. Adam Smith is projected to defeat nonprofit employee Melissa Chaudhry 68% to 32%.

Arizona is getting closer to finishing the tabulation of all its votes, and while Trump has carried the state at the presidential level, it looks increasingly likely that Republican Kari Lake will lose to Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in the state's U.S. Senate race. With 91% of the expected vote reporting, Gallego leads by about 2 points, 50% to 48%. As of this morning, Arizona's secretary of state estimates that about 270,000 votes ballots remain uncounted. Based on that figure, Lake needs to win roughly 62% of the remaining votes to have a shot at barely edging out Gallego.

However, the challenge for Lake is that about two-thirds of the outstanding vote hails from Maricopa and Pima counties (home to Phoenix and Tucson, respectively), which are not favorable ground for her. Gallego leads by more than 20 points in fairly blue Pima, and by about 5 points in purple Maricopa (which Trump carried over Harris in the presidential race). That means her path to winning more than 60% of the remaining vote is vanishingly narrow. In light of this, we can probably expect a projection here relatively soon.

After this weekend's projections, Republicans have clinched at least 214 seats in the next House, and Democrats have secured at least 205. That leaves 16 seats that are still unresolved, and Republicans need to win just four of them in order to win a majority.

That shouldn't be too hard. Based on what's been counted so far, Republicans have more votes in eight of the unprojected races. Democrats might be able to take the lead in a couple of these (I'm thinking California's 13th or 45th) because California still has millions of ballots left to count and those are expected to break disproportionately for Democrats, but Republicans appear well positioned to eventually win between four and six additional seats. There likely are not enough Democratic votes uncounted for them to take the lead in Arizona's 1st, Arizona's 6th, California's 22nd and California's 41st. In Iowa's 1st, Democrats are holding out hope that a combination of late-adjudicated provisional ballots and/or a recount will flip the seat to them, but it's unlikely. And in Alaska, Republican Nick Begich has a relatively comfortable lead right now, but no one really knows how the race will change when later-arriving mail ballots get counted starting tomorrow and when ranked-choice tabulations are run on Nov. 20.

In another competitive Centennial State contest, ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Gabe Evans is projected to win the House race in Colorado's 8th District. It's something of an upset: Evans had a 32.6% chance of winning in 538's final preelection forecast. He'll unseat Democrat Rep. Yadira Caraveo by less than one percentage point, and currently leads by around 2,500 votes. As House control looks to come down to just a few seats, this pickup may help Republicans retain control of the lower chamber, giving them a trifecta on Capitol Hill next year.