The Note: Trump plays to fears at tense moment

The TAKE with Rick Klein

The Republican Party's scramble to keep the Senate runs deep through Trump country.

That’s on President Donald Trump's mind as he prepares for a final campaign blitz aimed at boosting turnout in areas where he remains popular. And it's a big factor -- maybe the only factor -- in his late push to elevate the migrant caravan into a national campaign issue.

Sending more than 5,000 U.S. troops to confront an unarmed group of refugees seeking asylum is a dramatic statement. It's also little more than a statement -- one the president hopes is heard loudly inside his base.

Trump spends part of his Tuesday in Pittsburgh, where he’s traveling with first lady Melania Trump to support the local Jewish community in the wake of an awful mass shooting.

That figures to be the last respite from a packed rally schedule that starts Wednesday and that’s heavy on Senate and gubernatorial races, and light on key House campaigns.

One week from Election Day, the House may be slipping from the GOP's grip. But the Senate map is what it's always been -- and remains a tempting target for Trump to play to his base.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

What about Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio? All three states helped put the president in office, but did they really go "red?"

The strength of sitting Democratic senators up for re-election this year would suggest otherwise.

Sens. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin; Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio; and Bob Casey, D-Pennsylvania, are also forecasted to win handily by our partners at FiveThirtyEight. What’s more, in two of those states, the Democratic gubernatorial candidates are giving incumbent Republicans a run for their money. (Pennsylvania already has a Democratic governor, and he looks rather safe at this point, too.)

That could mean: the president winning in those areas two years ago was a fluke, his popularity is not enough to boost Republicans, or the Democrats are successfully making their case (or a combo of all three).

The national conversation has largely focused on only a select few super competitive Senate races like North Dakota and Indiana, but were they really just the low-hanging fruit?

The TIP with John Verhovek

In a midterm year defined in many ways by President Trump, one particular section of the 2018 political battleground is seemingly defying the conventional laws of Trump-era politics: governor's races.

Whether it's the adage that all politics is local, or because there are quality candidates on either side, the gubernatorial landscape in 2018 provides a fascinating look at how trends on the ground diverge from the national conversation.

According to FiveThirtyEight's Governors forecast, with a week to go until Election Day, there are five states Trump won by between 15 and 37 points where Democrats are in a competitive position:
Alaska

Idaho

Kansas

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Conversely, in four states Hillary Clinton captured by between 10 and 28 points, Republicans are either assured re-election or are in competitive races:
Maryland

Massachusetts

Oregon

Vermont

Some of this phenomenon is tied to the unique political histories these states have of bucking partisan trends in state-level races, but it also serves as a warning that the idiosyncrasies of local politics often prevail.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. Tuesday morning’s episode features ABC News Deputy Political Director MaryAlice Parks, who tells us that gun control is a big talking point on the campaign trail in the wake of the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre. And, ABC News’ Elizabeth McLaughlin explains why thousands of troops are on their way to the U.S.-Mexico border. https://bit.ly/2M7OS5c

FiveThirtyEight’s "Politics Podcast." The team at ABC News' partner FiveThirtyEight discusses whether the state of American politics is contributing to the recent violent acts, and looks at the narratives the two parties are telling themselves about their opportunities in the Senate and debates the best possible outcomes for each party. https://53eig.ht/2COJ36Q

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