The Note: GOP closing with feuds and mixed messaging

Trump is leading his party into a scattershot closing stretch.

The TAKE with Rick Klein

The chairman of the House GOP campaign arm is cutting loose a member of Congress over white nationalist rhetoric.

And, for a day at least, Trump won't even be the biggest star on the campaign stage. (Welcome, Oprah Winfrey, to Georgia.)

Trump is leading his party into a scattershot closing stretch.

His focus on stoking fears on immigration -- "We have to have a wall of people," he told ABC's Jonathan Karl late Wednesday -- has boxed in some Democrats. But it has also elbowed out some Republicans, including many whose House seats it's critical to keep.

Trump was the beneficiary in 2016 of late-breaking voters who sought something new. Democrats hope that the Trump-stoked confusions now will drive frustrated voters to them -- as a check during an uneasy time.

In short, Trump and the Republican Party are making the race about everything. It could wind up being about one big thing -- Trump -- that carries risk for the party in power.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

According to a new report this week from the Center for Responsive Politics, it's likely more than $5.2 billion will be spent before Election Day, which would make this the most expensive non-presidential, midterm cycle ever.

The report went on to say that the uptick in funds is largely being fueled by an "unprecedented" surge in Democratic donations and spending, keeping up with, and even surpassing, Republican dollars, which is rare.

"In every kind of competitive race -- even those in red districts -- Democrats are either outraising Republicans or keeping pace," the report said.

In the final stretch, those dollars not only can help with expensive TV ads but also with last-minute staffing and technology to get voters to the polls.

The TIP with Meg Cunningham

2018 early voting numbers are on track to largely surpass those from 2014, according to at least one analysis.

Data from nationwide secretaries of state and election boards, compiled by Michael McDonald, an associate political science professor at the University of Florida, show increases nearly across the board, including in a number of battleground states.

In Texas, more than 3.36 million ballots had been cast as of Tuesday morning, compared with 2014's statewide early-vote total of 2.06 million, according to the Texas Secretary of State -- an increase of more than 175 percent.

In Georgia, where 2014 statewide early vote totals approached 1.07 million, the state has already seen a more than 140 percent uptick with over 1.5 million ballots cast as of Tuesday morning.

As of Wednesday evening, with five full days to go until Election Day, 16 additional states had also already topped their 2014 early-vote numbers.

But while competitive races featuring intriguing candidates may drive interest in Georgia, Texas and other areas, McDonald had an additional explanation for a predicted increase when he spoke to ABC News earlier this year, prior to the start of voting.

"What we see is, generally, with more opportunity to vote, people take advantage of it," he said.

Simply put, each year that more states hold early voting and for longer periods of time, the numbers are bound to go up.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. Thursday morning's episode features ABC News' John Verhovek, who says as the calendar turns to November, both Republicans and Democrats are feeling more certain than ever of the outcome in their respective House and Senate races. And, ABC News' Candace Smith tells us that the race for governor in Georgia is tightening as the Republican candidate pulls out of the final debate. https://bit.ly/2M7OS5c

ABC News' "Powerhouse Politics" Podcast. Former New Jersey governor and ABC News Contributor Chris Christie joined ABC News' Political Director Rick Klein and Congressional Correspondent Mary Bruce on the Powerhouse Politics Podcast to discuss President Donald Trump and GOP messaging in the run-up to the midterms. https://abcn.ws/2JtcH2I

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

  • Trump receives a briefing on election integrity at 1:30 p.m. He later headlines a Make America Great Again rally in Columbia, Missouri, at 7:30 p.m.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden kicks off the "Bring it Home, Heidi!" tour for North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in Fargo at 11 a.m. The statewide tour will last five days and span over 2,000 miles -- as the red-state Democrat faces a tough re-election bid against Trump-endorsed GOP challenger Kevin Cramer. Biden later heads to Lansing, Michigan, for a campaign event with a slate of Democratic candidates, including gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and 8th Congressional District candidate Elissa Slotkin at Lansing Community College.
  • Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum continues his campaign bus tour across southern Florida, heading to Key West, Homestead, Richmond Heights, North Miami and Miami.
  • Early voting begins in Oklahoma.
  • Thursday debates: Republican Gov. Chris Sununu and Democratic opponent Molly Kelly square off in New Hampshire's gubernatorial debate at 7 p.m. The Vermont gubernatorial debate between Democratic candidate Christine Hallquist, the first transgender nominee, and incumbent GOP Gov. Phil Scott, begins at 6:30 p.m. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin faces Republican contender Patrick Morrisey in a debate at 7 p.m. in Morgantown.
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