The Note: Impeachment set for early ballot tests on Election Day 2019
Impeachment is on the ballot Tuesday. What that means depends on where you look.
The TAKE with Rick Klein
Impeachment is on the ballot Tuesday. Who wants it there and what that means depends on where you look.
The marquee 2019 Election Day races are for jobs that don't have any direct bearing on impeachment, or really anything in the federal policy realm. Yet gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi and control of the state assembly in Virginia could all be referendums on President Donald Trump and the impeachment battles raging around him -- and they could land in much different directions.
In Kentucky, Republican Gov. Matt Bevin's reelection could hinge on his ability to energize voters about efforts by national Democrats who are seeking to halt the Trump presidency. Trump visited Lexington on Monday night to make the connection explicit.
"Tomorrow the people of Kentucky will head to the polls, and you will vote to reelect your terrific Republican governor," Trump said Monday night. "And we're sending a signal by doing that to the rest of the country, to the rest of the world, that the Republican party -- you know what we stand for -- but do you see what's happening with the Democrats. They have gone crazy."
Meanwhile, in Virginia, national Democratic figures -- led by the 2020ers -- have poured time and attention into nationalizing races for the General Assembly. Republicans are clinging to the narrowest of edges in both the House of Delegates and the state Senate, in a state that appears to be turning bluer -- particularly in the suburbs -- in the age of Trump.
Off-year elections are imperfect indicators of what's to come. But the impact of Trump and impeachment could really be as complicated as Tuesday's results might be, with voters driven in different places for exactly opposite reasons.
The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks
In hypothetical head-to-head matches against Trump, several Democratic presidential candidates are expanding their nationwide polling leads. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll out Tuesday, respondents said that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren over Trump by large double-digits margins.
In the latest poll too, Trump is underwater on every single question about his personality and temperament. More, the percent of respondents who identify as leaning Republican in their preferences, said they'd defect to Biden should he become the nominee.
Despite these warnings for the White House, the national popular vote obviously decides absolutely nothing in a future general election. Trump faced plenty of polling red flags in 2016 and still prevailed in the Electoral College, while losing the popular vote.
A new poll from the New York Times and Siena College tells a different story in battleground states. According to the polls conducted last month in six key individual states, Trump is highly competitive going head to head against Biden, Sanders and Warren. While Biden does slightly better against Trump than do Sanders and Warren, all of these matchups were close, within the margin of error.
Side by side, the two polls are a reminder that the country's divisions by geography and demographics continue to be profound.
The TIP with Kendall Karson
At the onset of 2019, two controversies over blackface and sexual assault allegations embroiled Virginia Democrats -- with the top three leaders of the commonwealth all wrestling with widespread calls to resign and dwindling support from the party.
But now, without Gov. Ralph Northam, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax or Attorney General Mark Herring on the ballot, the rest of the party is finding their own path forward and could potentially capture full control of the state government on Tuesday -- despite Republican efforts to undercut their hopes of flipping the general assembly by invoking the scandals.
In the final stretch in the contest for Senate District 13, a seat that covers parts of Loudoun and Prince William Counties and is trending blue, Republican candidate Geary Higgins has repeatedly tried to make House Delegate John Bell's ties to Northam and Fairfax a centerpiece of his campaign. One ad targeting the Democrat, who was endorsed by former President Barack Obama, says that he was "blocking a bipartisan investigation into Fairfax's sexual assault allegations." Fairfax has denied those allegations.
But Bell's campaign remains adamant that those scandals are not at the forefront of voters' minds. His campaign manager, Kiera Hall, told ABC News that he "has not been asked by voters" about them and called the ad "as offensive as it is untrue."
THE PLAYLIST
ABC News' "Start Here" podcast. Tuesday morning's episode features ABC News Senior Editorial producer John Santucci, who tells us the moments that mattered from the impeachment deposition transcripts released Monday. Then, ABC News Deputy Political Director MaryAlice Parks gets us ready for big Election Day races in Kentucky and Virginia Tuesday. http://apple.co/2HPocUL
ABC News' "The Investigation" podcast. "The Investigation" co-hosts Chris Vlasto and John Santucci interview two recipients of the International Women's Media Foundation "Courage in Journalism" award: Ukrainian journalists Nastya Stanko and Anna Babinets. Stanko, a war reporter who is often on the front lines of conflict in Eastern Ukraine and was once held hostage while on the job, stressed the importance of U.S. military aid because even with peace agreements. Babinets, an investigative journalist focused on government corruption and big crime in Ukraine, explained their fears and frustration with reporting in their home country. "The Investigation" also catches up with ABC News senior national correspondent Terry Moran and Capitol Hill reporter Katherine Faulders, who break down the latest news on the impeachment inquiry. https://apple.co/2BlcX0N
FiveThirtyEight's "Politics Podcast." In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the governors races in Kentucky and Mississippi and the state legislative elections in Virginia. Then, they take a look at the latest in the Democratic primary -- including former Rep. Beto O'Rourke dropping out of the race and Sen. Elizabeth Warren's stagnancy in national polls -- and introduce a new segment called "Impeachment Data Point of the Week." https://apple.co/23r5y7w
ONE MORE THING
Former Republican Rep. Bob Livingston says he has never spoken with Rudy Giuliani about Ukraine, and did not coordinate with him when he sounded alarms about the former U.S. ambassador to the country, Marie Yovanovitch. In an interview, Livingston told ABC News he was dismayed by reports that suggested that federal prosecutors in New York were looking into whether he had contact with the president's personal lawyer as part of a push to remove Yovanovitch. He said he sounded alarms about Yovanovitch because of what he was hearing from his contacts in Ukraine.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY
Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis.
The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in politics. Please check back tomorrow for the latest.