The Note: On Kavanaugh, Trump’s 'dangerous' roadmap for GOP

The TAKE with Rick Klein

Deny, deflect, attack. Then, contradict and confuse – while attacking some more (even claiming Democrats would vote against George Washington).

Perhaps the highest-stakes day of President Donald Trump’s tenure in office will feature only two witnesses, only one of whom can be telling the truth.

It figures to be a marathon day featuring Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford. According to her prepared statement, Ford plans to refer to Kavanaugh as "the boy who sexually assaulted me."

For a Republican Party that’s lining up behind Trump and his nominee – though not quite with enough support to guarantee confirmation – the president offers enough contradictions to churn up a spectacle.

On the eve of the hearing, Trump called the Kavanaugh’s accusations "all false to me" and part of a "big, fat con job" by Democrats – suggesting a scheme orchestrated by "very evil people." Yet, he also said it’s possible that Ford could change his mind, and raised the possibility of a replacement nominee.

Trump wound down his news conference Wednesday night by calling this "a very dangerous period in our country."

He meant it in the context of potentially false allegations. But the dangers for his party are far broader, in a storyline that’s virtually guaranteed to finish without clean answers.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

As President Trump and Senate Republicans double-down in defense of his Supreme Court nominee and attempt to paint all allegations against Brett Kavanaugh as political hogwash, the legal documents piling up ahead of Thursday’s hearing reveal something else entirely.

Professor Christine Blasey Ford’s team presented four signed and sworn affidavits on the eve of the hearing. These legal statements from her husband and friends describe several times in the last six years when they say Ford shared her memories of Kavanaugh with others. Simply put, those who knew Ford said she brought up the assault and his name well before Kavanaugh was hand-picked for this top post.

That is not to suggest that politics has not muddied the waters here. Of course it has. It’s Washington.

Attorney Michael Avenatti, who has talked openly about exploring a run for president and made a national name for himself by taking on President Trump, became a bogeyman of sorts for Republicans this week to point to.

Still, it is remarkable to listen to Republicans sound astonished by politics surrounding the Supreme Court. It was, after all, Sen. Mitch McConnell who refused to bring up President Obama’s pick, Merrick Garland, mainly because Obama selected him. And it was McConnell who changed the rules about how many Senate votes are needed to confirm a judge to the bench.

The TIP with John Verhovek

The stakes of Thursday’s hearing aren't just high for President Trump and his Supreme Court nominee, they are critically important for Republican candidates in tight races across the country, in a midterm cycle where women are flexing their political muscle in ways never before seen.

Republican candidates up and down the ballot, from North Dakota to Michigan to Mississippi, have been on defense in recent days in light of the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh, and a divided nation will tune in to see how the GOP-controlled Senate Judiciary Committee handles the vitally important moment that comes exactly 40 days before the midterm election.

New polling shows that 47 percent of women oppose Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court, while just 32 percent approve. And for the record number of women seeking office this cycle, the hearing could be a turning point – 26 years after the first so-called "Year of the Woman."

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"If I thought he was guilty of something like this, yeah, sure." – President Trump said Wednesday, during a freewheeling news conference, when asked if there’s any scenario in which he would consider withdrawing Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast.Thursday morning’s episode features ABC News’ Jonathan Karl and Cecilia Vega, who break down President Trump’s wide-ranging news conference in New York Wednesday. ABC News Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran on the latest sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. And, ABC News’ Ali Rogin tells us more about his accuser who will be testifying this morning, Christine Blasey Ford. https://bit.ly/2Ohkpz8

ICYMI: ABC News' "Powerhouse Politics" Podcast. Wednesday's episode featured ABC’s Political Director Rick Klein and Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran, who sat down to discuss the history and controversy surrounding Kavanaugh’s nomination and what it could mean for Republicans merely 40 days ahead of the midterms. https://abcn.ws/2Qb7VsF

NEED TO READ

Brett Kavanaugh, Christine Blasey Ford testify amid high-stakes, stark Anita Hill parallels. Nearly three weeks ago, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh first took a seat before a panel of senators, fielded hours of questions and attempted to secure enough votes to be confirmed to the highest court in the land. (Cheyenne Haslett) https://abcn.ws/2OTNuAn

Kavanaugh hearing could define a political generation: ANALYSIS. It will be a showdown that could define a generation – in politics and well beyond. At stake is a lifetime appointment to the swing seat on the Supreme Court. (Rick Klein) https://abcn.ws/2OcX9Ff

Who is Christine Blasey Ford? When the Washington Post revealed her name a week-and-a-half ago, California professor Christine Blasey Ford almost immediately became the most talked about person in Washington, D.C. – and across much of the nation. (Ali Rogin) https://abcn.ws/2N4xABx

Who are the key Senate Judiciary Committee members in the Kavanaugh hearing? The 21 committee members -- 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats -- are expected to press both Ford and Kavanaugh for details. Republicans are expected to yield their time to Rachel Mitchell, a prosecutor from Arizona, to question Ford. (Max Hamid) https://abcn.ws/2zyBXkW

Ford legal team releases polygraph results, Thursday hearing still on amid new allegations. According to an attachment to the letter, the examiner found her answers "Not Indicative of Deception." Also included was Ford's handwritten account on a sheet of lined legal paper, signed and dated August 7, 2018, of what she claims happened. (Mary Bruce, Benjamin Siegel, Ali Rogin, Mariam Khan and Trish Turner) https://abcn.ws/2NL9n8s

Third woman makes sexual misconduct allegation against Brett Kavanaugh. The Senate Judiciary Committee is reviewing new allegations lodged Wednesday against Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, from a woman who claims to have directly witnessed sexual misconduct by Kavanaugh during his high school years. (James Hill) https://abcn.ws/2R0lUTq

Ford spoke of sexual assault allegation years ago: Affidavits. The legal team representing Christine Blasey Ford in her allegations of sexual assault against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh sent four sworn and signed affidavits to the Senate Judiciary Committee Wednesday from Ford’s husband and friends, all of which state that Ford told them about the alleged assault before Kavanaugh was named as President Donald Trump's pick for the life-long appointment. (MaryAlice Parks) https://abcn.ws/2Ik7fi2

Trump says he could change his mind on Kavanaugh: 'If I thought he was guilty of something like this'. In a freewheeling press conference after a day of meetings while at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, President Donald Trump again strongly defended his Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, but said that he could change his mind and withdraw the nomination after hearing the judge's accusers speak out. (Meridith McGraw) https://abcn.ws/2NIXH6k

What Kavanaugh’s Thursday hearing could mean for Republicans as they fight to maintain a majority. ABC’s Political Director Rick Klein and Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran sat down this week on ABC News’ "Powerhouse Politics" to discuss the history and controversy surrounding Kavanaugh’s nomination and what it could mean for Republicans merely 41 days ahead of the midterms. (Meg Cunningham) https://abcn.ws/2Qb7VsF

Trump backs two-state solution for Israeli-Palestinian conflict. President Donald Trump for the first time endorsed a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, saying on Wednesday that he thought it was the best option for peace. (Ben Gittleson) https://abcn.ws/2OcGGAM

DOJ officials on what Rosenstein should tell Trump. Justice Department officials aren't quite sure what to make of Thursday's possible meeting between President Donald Trump and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. (Mike Levine) https://abcn.ws/2Q65rf6

They're three Democrats and four Republicans – and they're the seven Senators who will decide Kavanaugh's fate, according to analysis from FiveThirtyEight. https://53eig.ht/2N3V2Ph

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