Keith Srakocic/AP Photo

Nearly five thousand revelers hoping for an early spring were disappointed  today after Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow.

But those winter jackets may be able to go in the closet sooner than the forecasting groundhog has to say.

It turns out the ultimate prognosticator- and his copycat counterparts- are wrong more often than they are right.

An analysis by the National Climatic Data Center found there is no correlation between Phil's predictions and the actual weather.

But don't tell that to the members of the Groundhog club's Inner Circle in Punxsutawney, Pa.

"I would argue with the comments he doesn't have a great track record," Jon Johnston, Phil's "Chief Healthman" told ABCNews.com. "They're missing the point then. It's always winter somewhere."

And more often than not, Phil agrees.

The well-fed, revered groundhog also has a penchant for seeing his shadow. Ever since the tradition began in 1887, Phil (and his ancestors) saw their shadows 99 times, while predicting an early spring only 16 times. There was no record for nine of the years.