Punxsutawney Phil Isn’t Always Right
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Keith Srakocic/AP Photo
Nearly five thousand revelers hoping for an early spring were disappointed today after Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow.
But those winter jackets may be able to go in the closet sooner than the forecasting groundhog has to say.
It turns out the ultimate prognosticator– and his copycat counterparts– are wrong more often than they are right.
An analysis by the National Climatic Data Center found there is no correlation between Phil’s predictions and the actual weather.
But don’t tell that to the members of the Groundhog club’s Inner Circle in Punxsutawney, Pa.
“I would argue with the comments he doesn’t have a great track record,” Jon Johnston, Phil’s “Chief Healthman” told ABCNews.com. “They’re missing the point then. It’s always winter somewhere.”
And more often than not, Phil agrees.
The well-fed, revered groundhog also has a penchant for seeing his shadow. Ever since the tradition began in 1887, Phil (and his ancestors) saw their shadows 99 times, while predicting an early spring only 16 times. There was no record for nine of the years.
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Granted, I wasn’t in Punxsutawney this morning, but the National Weather Service shows that the area was under cloud cover at 7:30AM. Are they sure it wasn’t all the bright TV camera lights causing his shadow?
Posted by: Bob | February 2, 2012, 9:01 am 9:01 am
Who came up with the notion that a ground hog seeing his shadow predicted anything? What if it’s raining? What if it’s overcast? I think it’s more a novelty than reality. I never believe Phil. I’ve been to Punxsutawney — cute little town. : )
Posted by: carole | February 2, 2012, 9:08 am 9:08 am
Top Story abc?…..
Posted by: Logicsgood5 | February 2, 2012, 9:10 am 9:10 am
There was way more than 5,000 people there. There was 18,000 I was there. Bob it is just for novelty. the only reason I know this is because I live in Punxsutawney.
Posted by: James | February 2, 2012, 9:21 am 9:21 am
Phil rocks and more fun than any weather reporter.
Posted by: Carolyn | February 2, 2012, 9:28 am 9:28 am
“Who came up with the notion that a ground hog seeing his shadow predicted anything? What if it’s raining? What if it’s overcast?” I think the whole point of the shadow is that if the weather is mild enough for the sun to cast shadows to see on February 2nd then somehow the winter weather patterns would persist longer into the season (maybe a sort of “It’s so nice we’re sure to pay for it later” mindset). As to Phil not always being right, neither has the weather service (at least in my area).
Posted by: MyTake | February 2, 2012, 9:40 am 9:40 am
You mean a rodent cannot predict the weather? Gee, I’m shocked.
Posted by: A Cynic | February 2, 2012, 9:41 am 9:41 am
Come on folks, can’t we just have a little fun once in a while. I love Phil and the whole idea of a community coming together during what is usually the most bleak and cold time of winter to have a little celebration. For the “Is this new?” crowd: Yes, this is fun news and I look forward to it every year. We all need to stop taking ourselves so seriously and have a little fun. And by the way, the sky is not falling folks. Lighten up, have a little faith, and keep putting one foot in front of the other instead of whining about life.
Posted by: Alexandria | February 2, 2012, 9:58 am 9:58 am
Phil has always been right. It’s the human translators and interpreters who have sometimes been wrong. (ABC should correct this error in their reporting.) :)
Posted by: Jimmie | February 2, 2012, 10:13 am 10:13 am
I like Phil — very cool dude. He knows what he’s about.
Posted by: Phil Is Cool | February 2, 2012, 10:22 am 10:22 am
So the little rat can’t predict the weather any more accurately than the average human weather forecaster. Why should we be surprised?
Posted by: Arf40 | February 2, 2012, 10:27 am 10:27 am
“An analysis by the National Climatic Data Center found there is no correlation between Phil’s predictions and the actual weather.” — Really? A bunch of scientists actually did an *analysis* to determine this? That’s just sad….
Posted by: Working_Class | February 2, 2012, 10:53 am 10:53 am
Go Phil! I love the idea of a groundhog predicting the weather….probably more accurate than the weather on tv – haha. It’s some good fun and with all of the sadness in the world – we need more things like this to keep us light hearted
Posted by: Mandy | February 2, 2012, 11:06 am 11:06 am
Not for nothing guys but Phils track record is just about the same as any other weather forcaster here in Illinois, DEAD WRONG more often then right.. Great Job Phil, but honestly I would start discusssing a pay raise as Im sure your not getting as much as all the other tools that “Guess” our daily weather..
Posted by: Max | February 2, 2012, 11:29 am 11:29 am
Poor Phil. To be awakened so rudely by those fools with the funny hats just so he could predict the weather is going just too far. That idiot that stuck his hand in his cozy nest is just lucky he didn’t draw back a stump. 62 degrees in Springfield, Mo today and we haven’t seen but maybe a 1/2 inch of snow since winter began. Our school kids just hate it because they haven’t had any snow days. Haha.
Posted by: howdymo1 | February 2, 2012, 11:59 am 11:59 am
LOL at the people who take this seriously. It is either 6 more weeks till Spring or 6 weeks more of Winter. It is the same damn thing! Either way, spring is here in 6 weeks!
Posted by: Mike | February 2, 2012, 12:20 pm 12:20 pm
I get it that reporters can’t spot a numerical error … 115 occasions between 1887 and 2011 when Phil’s predictions were 99 and 16 (but the third number has to be zero ! not 9) . Bad handwriting by Punxatawney “note-takers” , bad aritihmetic by the “mathematicians” at the NOAA who ‘misread’ it as a 9 and didn’t complain , and bad fact checking by ABC news … And you say Phil’s record is bad ? BTW , there’s NOTHING in this summary article showing that Phil’s record is less reliable than ‘random chance’ except the link to the NOAA … No explanation ? No shame ? This is America , folks !
Posted by: Mark | February 2, 2012, 12:29 pm 12:29 pm
He knows more than all of the weather forcasters. And if he’s wrong some times its allright, everyone entitled to a mistake or two, even an animal. Just relax and let him do what me make him do.
You rock Phil. Keep it up!
Posted by: Brandon | February 2, 2012, 12:37 pm 12:37 pm
I want that prediction from Phil in writing
Posted by: Peter | February 2, 2012, 1:55 pm 1:55 pm
I don’t think people look to the groundhog for scientific weather data … I think it’s all in good fun, so who care if he’s wrong or right. More people are interested in if he saw his shadow – not what it means for the weather if he saw his shadow.
Posted by: MIssy me | February 2, 2012, 2:08 pm 2:08 pm
“…the National Climatic Data Center found there is no correlation between Phil’s predictions and the actual weather.”
Uh, you think?
Posted by: Sam S. | February 2, 2012, 2:45 pm 2:45 pm
Punxsutawney Phil, meet Ruger Hawkeye, 22-250.
Posted by: Scott | February 2, 2012, 3:06 pm 3:06 pm
What a lovely fuzzy creature. So cute! And yes, keep the tradition. It is all in good fun.
Posted by: Mielle Pasquat | February 2, 2012, 5:08 pm 5:08 pm
So Phil’s just another “climate scientist”, I guess …
Posted by: Beau Zeaux | February 3, 2012, 11:18 am 11:18 am