By Gary Langer

Nov 7, 2011 12:01am

The Question for Romney: Is Electability Enough?

gty mitt romney ll 111012 wblog The Question for Romney: Is Electability Enough?

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What’s with Mitt Romney?

He’s been the constant in an otherwise shifting Republican landscape, the steady leader or co-leader of the field, the standout choice in ratings of electability — yet with weaknesses in core GOP groups, shortfalls in views of his personal attributes and no apparent momentum.

And then there’s that little matter of the Massachusetts health care law.

It all adds up to a conundrum of a candidacy. In a year when the Democratic incumbent clearly is vulnerable, 33 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents pick Romney as the GOP candidate most likely to defeat Barack Obama in the 2012 election, a dozen points above his closest competitor. Yet fewer, 24 percent, support him for the nomination, basically steady the past three months, and slightly down from his peak support, 30 percent, in July.

The question for Romney, who’s scheduled to visit Iowa today, is whether electability is enough. Compared with his rating on beating Obama, just half as many leaned Republicans in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, 17 percent, see Romney as the most honest and trustworthy; 22 percent instead pick Herman Cain. On best reflecting core Republican values, 20 percent choose Romney, but essentially as many, 19 percent, go for Newt Gingrich.

Nor does Romney clearly lead on other attributes — being “closest to you on the issues” (on which he runs evenly with Cain), best understanding the problems of people like you (again just 17 percent for Romney, vs. 21 percent for Cain) or even on Romney’s supposed strong suit, being best able to handle the economy (22 percent, vs. 19 percent for Cain).

Romney’s religion does not appear to be a major impediment; 77 percent of leaned Republicans say his being a Mormon makes no difference in their vote choice, while 20 percent say it makes them less likely to support him. Compunctions about voting for a Mormon started much higher, 36 percent, early in the 2008 contest, but subsided over that year to the same level as today.

Romney’s role in enacting mandatory health care while governor of Massachusetts, however, is another matter: Far more potential Republican voters, 48 percent, say this makes them less likely to back him, including a third much less likely. Seniors and lower-income Republicans stand out as more critical of Romney on this issue, as do conservatives compared with moderates.

Ideological acceptability, indeed, may be Romney’s greatest challenge. This poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that just 13 percent of conservatives say Romney best understands the problems of people like them, 16 percent say he’s closest to them on the issues and 16 percent say he best reflects the GOP’s core values. Among moderates these rise to 25, 27 and 29 percent, respectively.

Romney’s overall support for the nomination, in turn, declines from 31 percent among moderates to 21 percent among conservatives and 15 percent among leaned Republicans who describe themselves as very conservative — a group accounting for nearly three in 10 potential GOP voters. Romney wins just half of Cain’s 30 percent support among very conservatives and only manages to run alongside both Gingrich and Perry, at 17 percent each, in this group.

For all that, the notion that Romney simply can’t break through doesn’t bear out: In fact he leads as the second choice among Republicans and Republican-leaners who currently favor other candidates. In this group, 27 percent identify Romney as their backup.

The actual equation, of course, depends on who stays in the race, who goes, and how other dynamics play out, in a contest in which, among those with a current preference, 69 percent say they yet may change their minds. While Romney, for instance, has a numerical lead for second choice among Cain supporters, Cain has a numerical lead for second choice among Romney supporters. Sliced another way, among those who currently support neither Romney, Cain nor Perry, 30 percent pick Romney as their second choice, 22 percent Cain, 15 percent Perry.

While “last man standing” may not be as straightforward a path as he might prefer, Romney’s acceptability as a second choice suggests a possible route for him to the nomination — assuming that other candidates do drop out over time, and that he, in fact, can win over their supporters.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,004 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents, and 438 leaned Republicans. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points for the full sample and 5.5 points for leaned Republicans. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

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User Comments

Being ultra-rich distances him from many people. If he and I sat down together, I doubt we could find something in common to chat about. Remember Ronald Reagan and his awe over the department store automatic door sensors?

Posted by: Aaron Ververs | November 7, 2011, 12:56 am 12:56 am

looks like a president,talks like a president, walks like a president ,thinks like a president. Must be a president.

And why are people always giving him a bad time about money ? That he was smart enough to make a lot of money should be encouraging to us. He EARNED it–he didn’t inherit it -that’s a smart business man. We need it.

And just because he has money is no sign he is some arrogant stuffshirt who can’t relate to the average citizen . Bet you a bundle you COULD talk to him. Money doesn’t mean a person is a snob, so it’s not fair to judge him that way. Besides–anyone with five kids is bound to be pretty down-to-earth .

Posted by: Pam | November 7, 2011, 2:37 am 2:37 am

Ron Paul 2012 – End the wars – bring troops home – and focus on American people first!

Posted by: Tony | November 7, 2011, 3:14 am 3:14 am

The GOP really puts the “fun” in dysfunctional.

Posted by: Iolani | November 7, 2011, 7:02 am 7:02 am

If Romney is not nominated and Obama wins, the Republican Party goes into the dustbin of history. Pollsters should start asking whether Romney could win in 2012 on a third party ticket made up of moderate Republicans and Democrats.

Posted by: Wm. Inman | November 7, 2011, 8:11 am 8:11 am

Yea, I watched him come into Portland, OR a few weeks ago to have an expensive lunch with some rich folk, from the West Hills. He was in town all of about an hour. Grab his campaign contributions and ran. Never spoke to the media or nothing. That’s the kind person I don’t want for President. He’s just in it for the money. Besides, if he is so rich why does he need campaign contributions. Personally, I think the entire GOP should collectively jump off of a short pier.

Posted by: Jallard | November 7, 2011, 8:13 am 8:13 am

First he would have to secure the nomination. And it looks like Herman Cain has that right now. Apparently the Democrat strategists will have to actually do some work in their effort to discredit the Republican candidate and win election for a failed president. 9% unemployment. $3.50 gasoline. Obamacare. Solyndra. Fast and Furious. … Obama IS toast.

Posted by: Ed Smith | November 7, 2011, 8:13 am 8:13 am

The right will hold their noses and vote for Romney. They have nowhere else to go. Christi will sweeten the odor. In essence, it will be a race between two democrats. Obama will win if he successfully taps into the anger thing. The GOP tries to boomerang the anger by blaming the economy on Obama, but that only sells to the party faithful. Everybody knows when and how this all started if they are paying any attention at all, and that’s from where the anger stems. Romney doesn’t know how to manage anger. It’ll be close, but Obama gets the edge. He’s already playing his strategy, and strategy is his strongest suit.

Posted by: sameagain | November 7, 2011, 8:16 am 8:16 am

Our national debt was under 400 billion in 1980, we have elected 4 globalist presidents in a row beginning with G. Bush in 1981. Our debt is now 15 trillion. Romney is another globalist and we need a president who will put the needs of this nation ahead of the needs of the global community. We do not need Romney we need one of the other candidates who is not a globalist.

Posted by: karek40 | November 7, 2011, 8:17 am 8:17 am

I think a ham sandwich could win. The news media still keeps trying to prop up the worst president in our history and run down any one else.

Posted by: Freedom | November 7, 2011, 8:28 am 8:28 am

Romney turned his state’s 3B deficit into a 2B surplus. He veto’d 800 pieces of liberal legislative crap during his gubernatorial stay. He authorized the Mass police depts to enforce federal immigration laws. He’s plenty conservative for me. I’m a Freedom Works member, and I’m voting for Romney.

Posted by: Richard | November 7, 2011, 8:32 am 8:32 am

If three quarters of his own Party cannot or will not support him, why should the rest of the nation?

Posted by: Searambler | November 7, 2011, 8:41 am 8:41 am

Richard | November 7, 2011, 8:32 am post —- LOL! No mention of RomneyCare and the Individual Mandate?

Posted by: Searambler | November 7, 2011, 8:42 am 8:42 am

I’m predicting Romney will win it all.

But, the more critical issue is Congress. Has long as conservatives control congress, it won’t matter that Romney is president, he will fall in line with a conservative Congress. Because, once we start implement proven conservative priinciples (smaller govt., free market competition, reasonable regulations, sensible energy polices, etc.), the country will start to turn around and Romney will want to be part of that movement.

Posted by: jorge | November 7, 2011, 9:15 am 9:15 am

Mitt Romney inherited most of his money from his old man, the governor of Michigan. Unlike John Kennedy who never forgot where his roots were, Mitt Romney has no empathy for the working people of America. Look at his proposals, all sacrifice is put on the backs of the middle class. The guy just doesn’t relate to average Americans who don’t have 400, 000, 00 million dollars to fall back on.

Posted by: tmferretti | November 7, 2011, 9:18 am 9:18 am

NYT, ABC, CNN, right wing blogs and talk shows equally distain the only man to win the General. I read the other day a sign – Crazies on the left, clowns on the left, me stuck in the middle. The right is determined to damage Romney to the point if he wins the primary, he will limp into the general. The left is terrified because they know that most people are somewhere in the middle, the old silent majority, will beat Obama. It will not be easy. I know why the left leaner dislike him but the why of the right is the mystery. I would like some of these people to put country before idiology.

Posted by: Janeway | November 7, 2011, 9:26 am 9:26 am

The flagrant flip-flops of Romney are looming large in the minds of many voters, and it is gonna be a bitter and bruising battle between him and Obama. The victor wiil be anybody’s guess and it perhaps will depend on the intensity of the campaigning and red meat attack of one against the other. There will be blood all over the place.

Posted by: Marat | November 7, 2011, 9:34 am 9:34 am

Because, once we start implement proven conservative principles (smaller govt., free market competition, reasonable regulations, sensible energy polices, etc.), the country will start to turn around…..Posted by: jorge | November 7, 2011, 9:15 am 9:15.

“Implement proven conservative principles”?!?!? The last THREE Republican presidents oversaw the biggest EXPANSION of both the size and reach of the federal government seen in the last 60 years. GW Bush ALONE set records for increasing the size and scope of the federal government, through the creation of the Homeland Security department and the Patriot Act. Not to mention two wars and the unfunded Pill Bill.

These may be “conservative principles”, but the Republican Party sure as hell doesn’t adhere to them………..

Posted by: Searambler | November 7, 2011, 9:35 am 9:35 am

I don’t care how good Romney is with money and business. He can’t run the govt like a corporation. His solution is to cut the hell out of govt. Another Reagan conservative where government IS the problem. God help us if he gets into office and lots of red state GOPers are elected to Congress. We the people are in for a financial hurting if this happens. The Senate had better get to work and stop being the bottleneck or else Democrats are toast in 2012.

Posted by: Bob | November 7, 2011, 10:01 am 10:01 am

Personally, I can’t stand Romney. He has no core principles to fall back on and without them, he will be another DC politician: Pass-out-the-pork and kKck-the-can-down-the-road kind of guy. American needs someone that isn’t a DC politician; Someone that isn’t reasonable. America needs the jobs that come from making our own energy, making our own clothes, making our own toys – America needs someone that will end the psuedo governmental agencies that screw this country up, and that cannot happen with the current DC political class getting their way.

Posted by: jaimeshawn | November 7, 2011, 10:20 am 10:20 am

simple answer…..NO

Posted by: jack carlson | November 7, 2011, 10:25 am 10:25 am

After the disaster of the (Not ready for prime time) Obama Administration it will be a breath of fresh air to have a President who has accomplished something in his life! Mitt Romney wants to make the country the best it can be where as Barack Obama wants to throw the baby out with the bath water!

Posted by: Common _ Sense | November 7, 2011, 11:51 am 11:51 am

Romney 201-2020! Romney is more than electable…he’ll win! More allegations about Cain…It’s Tiger Woods all over again.

Posted by: bolsen00 | November 7, 2011, 11:59 am 11:59 am

I am so sick of the tea party and their little vendetta against Mitt Romney! If the Tea Party want’s to nominate someone like Rick Perry or Ron Paul, and throw the election over to the Democrats, then do it. You guys are nuts.

First of all, why dose Rick Perry get a pass on all of the flip-flops that he has committed? The guy is so two faced, whishy-washy, and plasticky that he makes Mitt Romney seem like he has the consistency of concrete! Perry’s whole career is a giant contradiction. FIrst he is a Democrat then a Republican. First he want’s to succeed from the US, now he want’s be President. He was for healthcare mandates before he was against them. On, and on, and on, and on. Why dose he get held to a different standard. Mitt changed his position on abortion! So what? So did Reagan and Bush 1 and 2.
Of course there is healthcare. At least Mitt tried!!! Rick Perry and Ron Paul’s state of Texas has one of the highest percentage of uninsured in the country at 25%. That is unacceptable! Romneycare may be far from perfect, but it was one states attempt to fix a massive problem in this country. I would bet my last dollar that “Romneycare” would have looked far more conservative had it not been passed in a deep blue state, with a very liberal state legislator, and a liberal state supreme court.
I respect Ron Paul to a point. I like his bold plan to cut $1 trillion in his first year in office. But he loses people when he says that we should try to be friendly with Iran. Didn’t Obama try that? Iran gaining nuclear weapons in NOT an option. How about getting rid of the Center for Disease Control. Can you say bird flu, swine flu, listeria outbreak??? The bottom line is this is the third time the guy has run for President, and 12% among likely GOP voters is all the support he can muster. He can’t win! Period ! End of story!!!!
Here is the bottom line for all you “conservatives”. I am forty years old. I voted for Clinton twice, Gore once, Kerry once, and I supported Hillary Clinton in 2008. I left the Presidential and Vice Presidential choices on my ballot blank in the 2008 election in protest of the terrible choices we had for President. I will gladly vote against Obama if my choice on the Republican side is either Romney, Gingrich, Cain, or Huntsman! If my choice is Paul, Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum I will vote for Obama to send a message to the Tea Party. The deal is, you “conservatives” better understand with people like me your just a 20% fringe group. So if you are serious about beating Obama you better hold your nose and vote for a moderate!

Posted by: Garbonzo | November 7, 2011, 12:31 pm 12:31 pm

Romney has his warts but they are small compared to Obama’s economic ineptitude. Romney has a good chance of winning this and it would be a breath of fresh air.

Posted by: deerjerkydave | November 7, 2011, 12:33 pm 12:33 pm

After the disaster of the (Not ready for prime time) Obama Administration it will be a breath of fresh air to have a President who has accomplished something in his life!
Posted by: Common _ Sense | November 7, 2011, 11:51 am.

LOL! Yeah, being the first Black president in US history certainly doesn’t qualify as an accomplishment in 21st century America…….. (he said very sarcastically). Nor does being the first Black editor of the Harvard Law Review. And 8 years in a state legislature? Piffle, that’s less than nothing. Yep, Obama has just sat around his whole life because he was born with a silver spoon up his arse…..oops, sorry, that’s Romney with the silver spoon. Romney, who has won exactly ONE election in his entire life. Romney, whose daddy gave him everything, and then some. Yeah, he sure has accomplished so much on his own……… (he said sarcastically, again).

Posted by: Searambler | November 7, 2011, 12:56 pm 12:56 pm

About Romneycare- My aunt who’s a retired RN in Worcester MA tells me that nurses are fleeing the state in droves. You know things are getting desperate when they ask a 69 year old women with a bad back out of retirement for ER desk duty ( Aunt Bev said no). As for Romney for President?Sigh. Hell, why not? Hey, I’d even vote for my cat Fred over Obama- at least Fred listens to me.

Posted by: whadaham NY | November 7, 2011, 1:12 pm 1:12 pm

Why do republicans always think businessmen will make a good president? It shows where their mindset is. Let’s face it most company CEOs don’t know their a— from a hole in ground. There are very few Henry Fords, Andrew Carnegies, Bill Gates and Steve Jobs left out there and most of them are smart enough not to want the job.

Posted by: tmferretti | November 7, 2011, 1:13 pm 1:13 pm

Amazing… A candidate that is charged with Sexual Harrassment Complaints by three past female workers (and who were paid off by Cain’s Company), a candidate who has been caught in numerous gaffs and falsehoods, is a candidate that scores the highest in Honesty among the GOP Candidates for President…

A candidate who simply says that I didn’t do it which is enough for the Freedom Works crowd and their Cheerleader (Talk Radio)….

I think that what has really happened here is that this brainless group who has to have Limbaugh, Levin, and Miller tell them what they think are beginning to understand that they are looking like 10 year olds running from candidate to candidate for the past 8 months…. Consequently, they are sticking with Cain regardless of what he has done in the past and the numerous Gaffs that he makes day after day on the campaign trail…

I always thought that Cain did not have the experience and qualifications necessary to win the Presidency…. Now that the vetting has begun, I now see that he may not have the Moral Fortitude that one should expect of a President…. The people of GA know Cain better than anyone and they gave his Competitor the Senate Seat that he ran for 7 years ago by a margin of over 27%.

I always thought that I was a member of the Tea Party… The Freedom Works rendition is not anything that I want to be associated with…. Perhaps it’s time that we break up the Republican Party and formally get away from these “NutBags” on the far right….. Perhaps we Moderates and Fiscal Conservatives should form a party that would be more enticing to the Independents and the Moderates and Fiscal Conservatives on the Left….. This would keep the country from having to choose between the far right and far left whackos.

Posted by: poyman | November 7, 2011, 1:26 pm 1:26 pm

Amazing… A candidate that is charged with Sexual Harrassment Complaints by three past female workers (and who were paid off by Cain’s Company), a candidate who has been caught in numerous gaffs and falsehoods, is a candidate that scores the highest in Honesty among the GOP Candidates for President…
Posted by: poyman | November 7, 2011, 1:26 pm.

Republicans have completely lost their way. Their Party has been hijacked by their extreme Right lunatic fringe, and it manifests itself in things like this. I blame FOX, Rush, and the rest of the Right Wing media presence in this country. They have driven all sense out of the Party. They have driven all the Moderates out into the ranks of the Independents. And the truly sad part is that there are poor and middle class people who STILL carry the water for them, not comprehending that the Republican Party does NOT have their back and does NOT have their best interests at heart. They are the very definition of “useful idiots”…………

Posted by: Searambler | November 7, 2011, 1:43 pm 1:43 pm

“During the month of October, 34.3% of Americans considered themselves to be Republicans, up from 33.9% in September. The number of Democrats fell to 33.1% from 33.7% the month before.” (Partisan Trend – Rasmussen Reports, Nov. 1, 2011)

Let’s see 34.3 + 33.1 = 67.4%. So that means that 2/3 of Americans belong to one of the two parties. That leaves the other 1/3 as independents. So why would the Republican party (of which I am member) want to nominate a candidate that will NOT get the support of the majority? Romney is the only candidate that has any draw among independent voters and among conservative Democrats. Any other choice of candidates is like giving Obama the election on a silver platter. Cain can’t win, Perry can’t win, Gingrich can’t win, Bachmann can’t win, Santorum can’t win, and Huntsman can’ t win.

Romney 2012 – that’s where I am voting.

Posted by: Poqui | November 8, 2011, 3:26 pm 3:26 pm

I remember when Newt was caught on his cell phone, having a conversation with someone that was not exactly ethical. He went balistic, pushed through legislation to force manufacturers all over the world to modify the radio scanners that supposedly intercepted his conversation and since that time no scanners coming into the USA to be sold, had a “Cellular Gap”.
It did not stop the monitoring, just banned the Cell phone coverage.
Now thinking about it, like banning guns because the guns kill people.

Wonder if Newt is in favor of that?

Me thinks Newt has “Two Faces”, the one to get him elected, and the other one that is for the 1% and to feather his nest like George did with his buddies, the Military Industrial Complex, two wars and putting the debt of the wars on 99% and giving his 1% buddies a 10 year tax break putting $477 Billion more debt on the 99%.

I think we can do better than “Fig Newt”.

Posted by: Mike | November 28, 2011, 9:20 am 9:20 am

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