Caucus Coin Toss, Newt's Lament, Santorum's Mob, and Showing Humanity (PM Note)

ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf ( @zbyronwolf) and Amy Bingham ( @amy_bingham) report:

Iowa Caucus predicts nominee about as well as a coin-toss:

Nasty, Vicious, Negative - "Politics has become a really nasty, vicious, negative business and I think it's disgusting and I think it's dishonest," Gingrich told ABC News' Jon Karl aboard his campaign bus in Iowa.

Santorum 'Mobbed' - That's how Shush Walshe described his arrival at an Iowa State bowl watching party at the Buffalo Wild Wings in Ames today. Walshe: "What a difference a day and two polls makes."  Santorum: "People say what's your key to your success. We've been out here doing this for a long time and working very hard and the message is beginning to resonate as people start to focus on making that decision."

Newt Says He'll Survive Air War - Despite an all-out air war against him - 45 percent of Iowa ads were anti-Newt, according to CMAG -  Gingrich said his campaign will survive Iowa and move on to New Hampshire.

"I'm going to survive, period. You're talking to somebody who in the national polls is tied for first or first. I think I'll survive OK. I think I'll survive," he told Karl.

Obama Delays Debt Ceiling Increase - Gives Congressional leaders more time to comment:

Late afternoon trading on the Political stock market:

Gingrich is steady today at 55, Santorum is up a bit, but has yet to break 30. Not a lot of volume on the market. Obama is still the man to beat, up slightly to 68. Romney is his closest rival at 63. The market closes at 7 p.m. ET.

Get the latest results at

Ron Paul Pile-On: One thing all the other Republican candidates can agree on is that Ron Paul would be a dangerous choice for president. (Ron Paul, clearly, disagrees). Sherisse Pham took a look at how often his name is being invoked by others on the campaign trail and put together this cool video:

What's a Caucus? ABC's Chris Good and Elizabeth Hartfield explain and add a little bit about why we care:

Romney's Son Makes Birther Joke:

And the Obama Campaign - does anyone still think they don't like talking about this - Pounced On It:

Gingrich's Humanity - A little while after Jon Karl's interview, Gingrich broke down while talking about his mom and her difficulties with bipolar disease. Showing a little humanity has been known to give candidates the tempo change they need. (ahem, Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire in '08). Whether it has the same effect for Newt? We'll see.

Jersey-Style - Chris Christie's said he's going to go "Jersey-style" on Iowa if they don't vote for Mitt:

He also called himself a "loud mouthed guy" while he spent the day stumping for Romney in Iowa:

Flashback 2010 - Remember back in July of 2010 when he told Jake Tapper Jersey stereotypes were unhelpful? (h/t @KarenTravers)

Teapot Museum and Indoor Rainforest - More Perry attacks on Santorum for earmarks.

Pearl Harbor - On their Hawaiian vacation the Obama's stopped by Pearl Harbor to lay a wreath and take a moment of silence, as Yunji de Nies reports

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