Gingrich Leads in Des Moines Register Poll, Romney Drops to Third
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(Craig Ruttle/AP Photo)
DES MOINES, Iowa — Newt Gingrich is now the frontrunner in the first caucus state of Iowa, according to a new Des Moines Register poll released this evening.
With only a month before the caucuses, the former speaker of the house received 25 percent support of likely Republican caucus-goers, up from only 7 percent in the Register’s last poll in October. Ron Paul came in second place with 18 percent support, and Mitt Romney was third with 16 percent support.
Caucus campaign veteran and current spokesman for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, Tim Albrecht calls the results an “accurate snapshot” of what’s going on here on the ground, but Albrecht says now it’s Gingrich’s turn to play the expectations game.
“The poll places Newt Gingrich in a must-win position with regard to the Iowa caucuses,” said Albrecht, who is currently unaligned but last cycle served as Romney’s communications director in the state. “The question is if he can build the ground game necessary to be successful. Time will tell.”
The poll was taken before Herman Cain’s suspension of his campaign Saturday and he received 8 percent of the support, the same as Michele Bachmann. But the fact that 11 percent of those polled remained undecided while 60 percent may still change their mind, combined with Cain being now out of the running means the race is still very much up in the air.
“The first thing that jumped out at me is that two-thirds (of those polled) say they are still persuadable voters, which tells me it’s going to be a wild ride for the next four weeks,” says Matt Strawn, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party. “It still doesn’t seem that Iowa caucus voters are locked in.”
Strawn pointed out this could also mean the candidates are having a hard time cementing those all-important precinct captains for caucus night because of the high number of undecided voters.
Rick Perry tied with Rick Santorum with only 6 percent of the vote.
Perry has been on the airwaves in Iowa for over a month now, but his poll numbers have not budged despite spending nearly $1 million in advertising in the Hawkeye State alone. Make Us Great Again, the pro-Perry super PAC, has spent at least $202,000 on ads in Iowa as well.
Albrecht says it shows that the Texas governor is just “the latest in a long line of candidates who think merely throwing TV ads on the air will somehow translate into caucus support.”
“A candidate has got to spend time here, or they will never be successful,” Albrecht said. “You can’t spend thousands on ads alone. They are learning a very real lesson tonight, and that is, don’t ignore Iowa.”
One candidate who has not ignored that state is Santorum. Despite campaigning the hardest here, visiting every one of the state’s 99 counties, he remains still at the bottom of the pack only moving up 1 percentage point since the last poll. His barnstorming of the state seems to have made no difference to Iowa voters, but his recent endorsements by evangelical and conservative leaders in both Iowa and New Hampshire, along with the undecided and Cain voters, could possibly help him.
Craig Robinson, former political director of the Iowa GOP who now runs the politics website The Iowa Republican.com says he still has a chance.
“At the end of the day when voters are done moving around and jumping to whoever is hot it will come down to who they support and who they believe in and they (the candidates) have to hope it is them,” Robinson said. “I think that helps Santorum more than Perry.”
Robinson also says today’s derailment of the Cain Train could help both Santorum and Bachmann in the state.
“Clearing that distraction out of the race might be good for Santorum, that goes for Bachmann, too,” Robinson said. “That’s the one thing they have to be banking on and that is their support is greater than what they are seeing in these polls.”
Although Cain is no longer in the race, the poll shows how dramatically he dropped in the eyes of voters here and how the sexual harassment allegations as well as foreign policy gaffes hurt him. In the October poll he was on top with 23 percent support, but in this poll he received only 8 percent. His most recent scandal, allegations of a 13-year affair with a Georgia businesswoman, broke on day two of polling. The Register reports that over four days of polling Cain went from 12 percent to 4 percent support.
Robinson said Cain supporters in Iowa will go to “multiple” candidates instead of just one and it may not help Gingrich.
“A lot of his (Cain) supporters are super passionate about illegal immigration. They are not going to Gingrich,” Robinson said, referring to Gingrich’s comments at a CNN debate last month where he said he opposed the deportation of all illegal immigrants. “I don’t think they will all go to one place.”
Mitt Romney has sunk to third place, down from 22 percent, a statistical tie with Cain in the last poll. This could give the campaign the opportunity to back off here just as expectations were rising and focus on New Hampshire, but Robinson says Romney’s number is “the story of the poll.”
“Romney is no longer in second place and I think the Romney campaign needs to start — instead of worrying about managing expectations, they need to concern themselves with actually winning. That was the caucus results, it’s a huge loss for Mitt Romney,” Robinson said. “He can’t beat Ron Paul, he can’t beat Newt Gingrich in Iowa. His support is dropping when he is starting to reengage the state. It shows he may have waited too long.”
Romney did get some good news in the Hawkeye state today. The Sioux City Journal endorsed the former Massachusetts governor, as they did in the last cycle. It’s an influential endorsement with just a month to go. Romney did well in that part of the state last cycle and in order to do well here this time he will need to hold on to those supporters.
The paper called him the “best prepared through experience, skills and qualities to lead the country” and it lavishes high praise on the candidate, even comparing him to Ronald Reagan.
“If it’s a ‘family values’ candidate you want, Romney is a good and decent man of integrity who lives the values he espouses,” the Sioux City Journal writes. “By virtue of his bid for president in both 2008 and 2012, no candidate in this year’s Republican field has been vetted like Romney. If no skeleton has been discovered in his closet to this point, it’s likely there isn’t one.”
The editorial also knocks Gingrich and his other opponents, although not by name.
“Do not discount the importance of personal traits in a candidate for president. As we said in our 2007 endorsement of Romney, if a presidential candidate is a polarizing figure within the halls of Congress and devoid of the personal characteristics necessary to inspire Americans to listen and follow, his or her plans have little to no chance of success, regardless of how detailed and well-conceived they might be, “the editorial reads. “Like the popular Ronald Reagan, Romney combines a pragmatic conservatism with confidence (not arrogance) and an easy, comfortable style and manner, even charm.”
ABC News’ Arlette Saenz contributed to this report.
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Newt? The man who lobbied Fannie and Freddie? The guy who this country has rejected over and over and over for good reason. So basically, the republicans WANT to lose the general election.
Posted by: Johnnyboy | December 3, 2011, 11:11 pm 11:11 pm
It’s a sure bet that a Gingrich nomination will become an Obama victory in 2012.
Posted by: john locke | December 3, 2011, 11:16 pm 11:16 pm
Why do the titles of these articles always leave out who is in second place??? Do you think we are all stupid. America is well aware of the fact the Ron Paul is polling either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in almost every poll. You guys are trying to subconciously leave his name out to get people to vote for the other guys. It will not work this time. We are all on to your media tactics and the American people will decide who the next president will be NOT THE MEDIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: joe | December 3, 2011, 11:23 pm 11:23 pm
Ron Paul is the only chance for peace and prosperity. Gingrich supports the corrupt “Patriot” Act, and wants to expand its powers. Ron Paul faught against the Patriot Act, and doesn’t support the illegal, undeclared wars and empire building. Dr. Paul is the Champion of the Constitution and fights for personal liberties, states rights and a sound economic policy, which includes the “Audit the Fed” bill. Vote Ron Paul, not Gingrich.
Posted by: Mike Ikeo | December 3, 2011, 11:24 pm 11:24 pm
I’m thinking that both republicans and democrats should take the billions that are going to be put in adds for this election cycle and just put them directly toward paying off the deficit, because obviously, republicans are bound and determined to put Obama back in office, so why bother giving all the money to add and tv execs who are already billionaires. Just call off the election- hand it to Obama, You are anyway, and pay down some of the deficit and spare us the long painful event that will only lead to a landslide rejection of their latest freak of nature. Romney is your only candidate that could beat Obama. fact. And you’re obviously not going ti bite, so, do something useful with the money and pay down the debt and let the chips all where they may > YOu’re making it perfectly plain you dont want to run a competitive campaign.
Posted by: seriouslynow | December 3, 2011, 11:29 pm 11:29 pm
Ron Paul is the only chance for peace and prosperity.—he wants to get rid of FEMA. He says churches pay for the uninsured and will do nothing about healthcare. IN fact, his plan is to do absolutely nothing about anything. Face it, he’s just one more fruitloop in the endless box of republican looney tunes. You people have no idea how far outside of the mainstream you are. NONE of your candidate, save Romney, has a chance. And you just will not embrace Romney, so before it’s even begun, it’s over. But that works for me. I like Obama. So, Newt is your new Not_Romney, huh? Great. I dont mind another 4 more years with Obama ,so, this totally works for me. How’s Fannie and Freddie, Newt???? Gee, never had a lobbyist run for president before! LOL!
Posted by: SAmtheMan | December 3, 2011, 11:32 pm 11:32 pm
Wow the MEDIA sure wants us to have to decide between what we got now (which aint’ much) and a CROOK to the tune of 1.8 million in bribes.
Posted by: Bigslamntee | December 3, 2011, 11:39 pm 11:39 pm
Gingrich would mop the floor with Obama in a debate.
Posted by: gary | December 3, 2011, 11:41 pm 11:41 pm
The media (right & left) glaze over Newt’s “baggage.” If he gets the nomination, the left wing media will open the baggage to expose it as “dirty laundry” and keep the light on it until Nov. 2012… RESULT: 4 more yrs. of Obama.
Posted by: David | December 3, 2011, 11:50 pm 11:50 pm
As with most post here, once again while they “mention” Ron Paul, they don’t say anything else. Man are they ever in for a rude awakening in 2012. This article once again just proves how stupid the media think we are. Ron Paul is the ONLY choice in 2012 to start getting this country back on track. ABC and the rest of the buffoons at the major network are in for a rude awakening once they realize they can’t sway peoples minds as much anymore. Ron Paul 2012!
Posted by: Steve | December 3, 2011, 11:57 pm 11:57 pm
The fact that the Tea Party think Newt is their guy only proves how ignorant they are – or says they don’t stand for what they say they stand for. Newt is so establishment its ridiculous. He is frankly morally bankrupt and completely offensive to any moderate thinking person.
Posted by: cesf | December 4, 2011, 12:31 am 12:31 am
Are republicans really that desperate,
Posted by: dave | December 4, 2011, 12:53 am 12:53 am
I will take anyone over Obama, except for the lunatic extremist Paul.
Posted by: Joe | December 4, 2011, 12:54 am 12:54 am
The lunatic extremist Paul is the only candidate I will vote for, name on the ballot or not.
Posted by: TomInOregon | December 4, 2011, 1:09 am 1:09 am
“I will take anyone over Obama, except for the lunatic extremist Paul.”————–That’s because you are a mindless conservative peon aka a ” dining room table ” to borrow an appropriate line from Barney Frank . .And anyone who’d vote for more conservative stupidity after the Bush/ Cheney debacle is a total 100% moron , end of story . I’m NEVER voting GOP conservative again , unless Jesus runs on the ticket . Then I may CONSIDER it , but not before. They’ve proven time after time that they cannot run the US government in a responsible fashion that is in the interests of the greater populace , they consistently and reliably pander to big business and the 1% ers .
A vote for any conservative politician is a vote for lies built upon lies , all of their presidential candidates are totally unethical hypocrites and power grifters of the worst order .Gingrich is lying conniving scum . Cain is the same . Romney is the biggest hypocrite of the pack , and is about as greasy as Trump. Pathetic , and anyone who’d vote for such trash is an idiot .
Posted by: frankm | December 4, 2011, 1:15 am 1:15 am
Newt ,Newt , who gives a hoot ? Electing this guy would make the US political electorate look even more stupid and clueless than the Italian buffoons who kept that clown Berlusconi ruining the Italian economy for years ( while he spent all their money on under age call girls and wild rock star parties ) . Yeah , that’s about the level of voter intellect on the right wing in the USA too lately , i.e. abysmal..
Posted by: billtomy | December 4, 2011, 1:22 am 1:22 am
Gingrich is not electable. He betrayed conservatives as Speaker in the 1990s, has a horrible track record, makes global warming videos with Pelosi and is a war-monger with no morals. Romney is only slightly better, of the 3 major contenders, I am going for Ron Paul.
Posted by: Janelle | December 4, 2011, 1:29 am 1:29 am
Hehehe. I love it. Pseudo religious, womanizer, ex lobbyist, ex crooked Congressman Newt who was fined $300,000 for ethics violations is now the Republican front runner. The Republicans are morally bankrupt. What are they thinking? Family values? Hahaha LOSERS!!
Posted by: Michael M | December 4, 2011, 1:42 am 1:42 am
Things are looking up for Ron Paul.
Posted by: Aaron Ververs | December 4, 2011, 1:47 am 1:47 am
Obama is going to lead us to WW3 to take the attention away from his bankster masters, crimes.
But Newt would be worse.
We’re talking total one world government, end of America, and commencement of depopulation program on a massive scale instead of JUST Fukushima irradiation, GMO poisoning and forced vaccinations, that is.
Read the forward Newt wrote in Toffler’s book “The Third Wave”. You’ll get the picture.
As for Romney, it’s not just Obama’s people who would love nothing more than to have him as their ultimate opponent.
It’s Ron Paul’s as well. That’s why they’ve been taking it easy on Romney so far. They WANT it to come down to Romney and Paul.
There has never been a more important election in the HISTORY of this country.
Make the right choice, patriot.
Posted by: Reggie | December 4, 2011, 1:47 am 1:47 am
Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich have a couple things in common. They have ideas, but many of them are looney such as getting rid of the Federal Reserve and eliminating social security. And they also act condescending to others. I don’t see a rational reason to vote for either one of them.
Posted by: Scott | December 4, 2011, 3:13 am 3:13 am
I HAVE NO TOLERANCE FOR THE CLUELESS BOOBS THAT THINK DR. PAUL IS A LOON..HEY BONEHEADS THE FED IS A PRIVATE UNCONSTITUTIONAL CARTEL OF BANKS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STEALING TRILLIONS FROM AMERICANS VIA THE BANKER BAILOUT THAT OBAMA BUSH MCCAIN AND ALL THE OTHER GOP CANDIDATES SUPPORTED OR WOULD SUPPORT EXCEPT FOR DR. PAUL..YOU IDIOTS DONT SEE THAT THE BANKERS ARE LAUGHING AT YOU BECAUSE OF YOUR REFUSAL TO OPEN YOUR EYES..AND HOW DID TRAITOR NEWT GO FROM POLLING AT 2% TO POLLING AT 20% OVERNIGHT?? THE CLUELESS BOOBS CANT SEE THE B.S. BEHIND THAT AS WELL..YOU WANT MORE WARS AND MORE WALL STREET THEFT?? THEN VOTE FOR OBAMA OR ANY OF THE OTHER GOP CANDIDATES THE MSM SHOVES DOWN YOUR THROAT..I CANT STAND THE SHEEP THAT WONT RESEARCH WHAT RON PAUL WANTS TO DO TO SAVE THIS COUNTRY..THEY WOULD RATHER BE TOLD WHO TO VOTE FOR..
Posted by: IDIOTS | December 4, 2011, 4:34 am 4:34 am
I HAVE NO TOLERANCE FOR THE CLUELESS BOOBS THAT THINK DR. PAUL IS A LOON..HEY IDIOTS THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL PRIVATE CARTEL OF BANKS RESPONSIBLE FOR STEALING TRILLIONS FROM AMERICANS VIA THE BUSH OBAMA SUPPORTED BANKER BAILOUT..WHO IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE THAT WANTS TO RUN THE BANKS/WALL ST OUT OF D.C..DONT POST A COMMENT IF YOU ARE TOO STUPID TO KNOW THE FACTS..I CANT BELIEVE THERE ARE SO MANY CLUELESS IDIOTS THAT WANT TO SEE THE CRIMINAL FED CONTINUE TO RAPE AMERICANS..
Posted by: YOUBONEHEADS | December 4, 2011, 4:44 am 4:44 am
25 paragraphs and not one mention of RP except that he was SECOND. Complete also rans such as Cain , Bachmann, Santorum and Perry get repeated mention. I guess ABC News is part of the cartel to blackout information to the public about ronpaul.
Posted by: andrew | December 4, 2011, 4:58 am 4:58 am
Why would anyone vote for Gingrich, who epitomizes everyhing wrong with our government?
He is completely lacking in ethics and honesty, and the $1,500,000 he got from Freddie Mac is just one small part of his gouging the taxpayers.
For decades, he’s been a part of squandering our money and running up the deficit, just like the rest of the old dinosaurs in Congress.
A fat old man in a fake-looking wig, who is a womanizer. A fatcat who peddles influence to line his pockets and those of his cronies.
Anyone who believes a politician is a fool.
Posted by: eric | December 4, 2011, 6:20 am 6:20 am
The GOP is it’s own worst enemy. They continue to shoot themselves in the foot by backing candidates that will NEVER win a national election. Remember the words “ELECT ABILITY” because republicans will end up eating those words. You can’t shove a rebel made over conservative down the throats of a moderate electorate and expect to win. Independents can only hope the GOP sees the folly in nominating Gingrich because they sure aren’t going to vote for Obama.
Posted by: Indymind | December 4, 2011, 7:08 am 7:08 am
Ok RON PAUL fans. Let’s get one thing straight you bunch of bananas. YOU WANT ALL CAPS?!?!
Good luck getting around on dirt roads and sharpen up your hunting an gathering skills. THERE’S YOUR ALL CAPS.
YES Ron Paul is in SECOND place in a 3 ring circus you loons.
Posted by: The Dude | December 4, 2011, 7:38 am 7:38 am
One fact is for certain. I will NOT vote for business as usual, which means voting for Obama. He has failed, massively. That also includes any and all incumbents for congress. Insane is voting for the same failures and expecting a different result.
Posted by: kris | December 4, 2011, 9:14 am 9:14 am
Cain drops in polls, numbers shift to another man . Both (or shall I say three of them?) experienced similar thing in late nineties. Is this what this country all about? An ex adulterer in the oval office and a woman as first lady who had an affair with a maried man? Is this a role model that we want to give to our kids? Hypocracy is the buzz word here.
Posted by: Smile | December 4, 2011, 9:23 am 9:23 am
Cain drops in polls, numbers go to another man. Both (or shall I say Three) experienced the same thing in the late nineties. Is this what the country all about? An ex adulterer in the oval office and a first lady that had an affair with a married man? Is this a role model that we want our kids to see? Hypocracy is the buzz word here.
Posted by: Happy | December 4, 2011, 9:35 am 9:35 am
HEY NEWT, YOU MAY HAVE 25% OF IOWA BUT GUESS WHOSE GOT THE OTHER 75%! REAL CLEAR POLITICS SAYS OBAMA NEED NOT WORRY! THE ONLY POLL LISTED HERE THAT GIVES NEWT THE EDGE IS RASMUSSEN AND EVERYBODY KNOWS THEY ARE PAID BY THE REPUGS! IF NEWT IS THE BEST THEY HAVE TO OFFER, PRESIDENT OBAMA SHOULD BE A “SHOE IN”!
General Election: Gingrich vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Gingrich (R) Spread
RCP Average 11/8 – 11/29 — 48.7 43.0 Obama +5.7
Rasmussen Reports 11/28 – 11/29 1000 LV 43 45 Gingrich +2
Quinnipiac 11/14 – 11/20 2552 RV 49 40 Obama +9
FOX News 11/13 – 11/15 914 RV 46 41 Obama +5
CNN/Opinion Research 11/11 – 11/13 925 RV 53 45 Obama +8
Pew Research 11/9 – 11/14 1576 RV 54 42 Obama +12
PPP (D) 11/10 – 11/13 800 RV 49 43 Obama +6
McClatchy/Marist 11/8 – 11/10 872 RV 47 45 Obama +2
Posted by: sharonawit62 | December 4, 2011, 5:09 pm 5:09 pm
ANOTHER ANTI RON PAUL HIT PIECE.
MAN, THE MEDIA HATES THAT PAUL IS IN SECOND PLACE. I MEAN COME ON.
EVERYONE HATES THE MAINSTREAM CORPORATE MEDIA.
YET THEY STILL BELIEVE THE POLL NUMBERS FROM THE MSM.
THINK ABOU IT, PERRY COMES OUT ON A SUNDAY AND MONDAY HES A FRONT RUNNER? HE HADNT EVEN WALKED LOL.
THEN THERE IS WILLARD MITT ROMNEY. BUYS COMPANIES, BREAKS THEM UP AND OUTSOURCES JOBS, THEN GETS DONATIONS FROM GOLDMAN SACKS. I MEAN WTF?
NOW THERE PROMOTING NEWT GREENY. WHICH HIS PROFILE SAYS SOCIOPATH ALL OVER IT.
DID YOU KNOW HE, BILL CLINTON AND 50 OTHER REPUBLICANS TRIED TO STOP RON PAUL FROM BEING IN CONGRESS IS 1996?
AND THE ALL FAILED.
NEWT HAS TAKEN OVER 30 MILLION FROM LOBBYIST THINK TANKS.
HELL, HE IS A LOBYIST. HAS BEEN FOR YEARS.
DO YOU THINK HES GOING TO ABIDE BY THE CONSTITUTION?
WELL, IF YOU VOTE FOR NEWT YOU BETTER DO SOME RESEARCH FIRST, UR NOT GOING TO LIKE WHAT YOU FIND, TRUST ME, I DID RECON ON ALL OF THEM.
RON PAUL IS THE ONLY CLEAN CANDIDATE IN THE ENTIRE PROCESS.
RON PAUL 2012.
Posted by: informer | December 7, 2011, 11:58 pm 11:58 pm
OBAMA HAS BEEN A AWFUL PRES, LOOKS GREAT, BUT IS ONLY GOOD AT VACATIONING AND KEEPING HIS TEETH ABNORMALY WHITE.
WHILE THE COUNTRY GOES DOWN THE DRAIN, HIS WIFE SPENT OVER 10 MILLION TAX PAYER DOLLARS, 500 DOLLAR LUNCHES. OH YA, A YEAR WINNER……SAD.
5 UNDECLAIRED WARS
SAID HE WOULD VETO THE CRIMINAL PATRIOT ACT, THE SIGNED IT AGAIN.
PROMISED TO BRING TROOPS HOME IN 6 MONTHS, ADDED EVEN MORE AND NOW ITS BEEN YEARS.
THIS GUY DOES THE OPOSITE OF EVERYTHING HE SAYS, HES A SERIAL LIAR.
OBAMA IS BUSH IS ROMNEY IS PERRY IS NEWT IS BACKMANN.
ONLY RON PAUL STICKS TO HIS WORD.
ONLY RON PAUL IS A REAL AMERICAN PATRIOT.
ALTHOUGH I HAVE NOTICED ALL THE OTHERS PAROTING RON PAUL ABOUT AUDITING THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
RON PAUL HAS BEEN SCREAMING IT FOR 30 YEARS.
ONLY RECENTLY HAVE AMERICANS BEGUN TO WAKE UP.
HURRY HURRY, ITS NOT TO LATE.
NO MORE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES, WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH.
TIME FOR A REAL REVOLUTIONARY.
Posted by: informer | December 8, 2011, 12:10 am 12:10 am