Voters Flee Democratic Party in Key Swing States
EmailPresident Obama’s uphill battle to re-election is getting steeper.
A report released today by the centrist think-tank Third Way showed that more than 825,000 voters in eight key battleground states have fled the Democratic Party since Obama won election in 2008.
“The numbers show that Democrats’ path to victory just got harder,” said Lanae Erickson, the report’s co-author. “We are seeing both an increase in independents and a decrease in Democrats and that means the coalition they have to assemble is going to rely even more on independents in 2012 than it did in 2008.”
Amid frustrating partisan gridlock and unprecedentedly low party-approval ratings, the number of voters registering under a major party is falling fast, but it is also falling disproportionately.
In eight states that will be must-wins in 2012 – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – Democrats lost 5.4 percent of their registered voters while Republicans lost 3.1 percent. The number of independent voters in those states jumped 3.4 percent.
“People are frustrated and the way you tune out in American politics is that is you drop the label of the two parties,” said Steven Jarding, a Harvard public policy professor and Democratic campaign strategist. “The danger for Obama in this is he is not only going to have to capture them but capture more of them because there are less Democratic voters.”
There will likely be more independent voters in the upcoming election than there has been in nearly 50 years, according to the report. But Jarding argues that could actually help Obama, if he plays his cards right.
“On paper, it looks like, ‘Well, it’s just going to be bad for Obama,’ but a part of me says, ‘Bad in what sense?’ He’s proven that he can get independent voters,” Jarding said.
Obama snagged 52 percent of unaffiliated voters in 2008, but those independents flocked to Republicans in the 2010 midterms with 56 percent opting for a GOP candidate. Between 2008 and 2010, there was a 27-point shift in which party independents chose.
“Independent voters have been the deciding factor in the last two major elections,” said Omar Ali, the national spokesman for IndependentVoting.org. “And they are going to, more than likely, determine the 2012 presidential election.”
Obama’s campaign team has already launched two get-out-the-vote initiatives in the hopes of re-creating the web of grassroots support that propelled him into the White House.
The Obama re-elect machine kicked off Project Vote this summer, a targeted voter outreach program aimed to boost minority registration, and the website, GottaRegister.com, which offers interactive online voter registration on desktops, laptops, tablets and mobile devices.
Harvard’s Jarding said the unprecedented increase in independent voters “fundamentally changes” how candidates have to run their campaigns. Instead of convincing a list of party voters to turn out to the polls, candidates now have to build “much stronger” grassroots efforts to interact with undecided voters.
“People are very, very disillusioned and the danger for Obama is when people are disillusioned and when they are hurting they tend to throw the guy in power out,” Jarding said. “If Obama can’t turn out the vote that he did in 2008, he’s in trouble.”
Ali, also a University of North Carolina at Greensboro professor of independent black politics, said that while candidates mobilize their party’s base by talking about ideology, they will have to focus on nonpartisan reform measures in order to make their case to independents.
“What [Obama] needs to do is present himself as somebody above partisan politics,” IndependentVoting.org’s Ali said. “Independents, in some ways they span the ideological spectrum. The one thing they agree on is having a more open and transparent political process.”
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What BS, Third Way is more right than centrist and a lot of both democratic and republican voters have become independents. There were more democrats in most states than republicans so the democrats were bound to lose the most. That doesn’t mean these independents will vote for any of the republican candidates.
They need to take a look at Arizona (the most republican state in the country). The bet is President Obama will take that state due to the Hispanic and Independent vote..
Posted by: tmferretti | December 7, 2011, 4:09 pm 4:09 pm
Sounds to me like a vote for an independent is a vote for a republican because the democrats are offering no alternative than Obama for election.
Posted by: Paulie | December 7, 2011, 4:15 pm 4:15 pm
All of this postulation ignores the fact that the GOP will not be offering a compelling alternative in this election. Romney? Gingrich? Obama should not have a problem.
Posted by: Todd Slater | December 7, 2011, 4:15 pm 4:15 pm
The ruts of corruption are just getting too deep for thoughtful people to follow. They’re not switching parties, they’re getting out of their respective ruts. Perhaps reforms will occur. A constitutional amendment banning lobbyists would go a long, long way toward reform.
Posted by: sameagain | December 7, 2011, 4:17 pm 4:17 pm
All of this postulation ignores the fact that the GOP will not be offering a compelling alternative in this election. Romney? Gingrich? Obama should not have a problem.
Posted by: Todd Slater | December 7, 2011, 4:15 pm 4:15 pm —You keep on thinking that way Todd. All the way till the ship hits the bottom.
Posted by: billy bob | December 7, 2011, 4:50 pm 4:50 pm
Obama’s TOAST!!! ——– Unless you think I’m being too hard on him….. lets look at his record…. 1) big-gov beauracracy with Obamacare and Dodd-Frank, 2) unemployment steady at 9%, 3) record deficits THREE years in a row, 4) US credit downgrade, 5) spending up 24% in three years, 6) Solyndra-Gate, 7) Fast&Furious-Gate….. yeah…. he’s TOAST!!!
Posted by: TheLoyalOpposition | December 7, 2011, 4:54 pm 4:54 pm
They’re an indy think tank. Now they’ve put out a report saying there are more indies. It’s self serving. Evidently some republicans on here didn’t read the part where they lost a share too. And they had a smaller share to start with.
Posted by: lexingtonlady | December 7, 2011, 5:10 pm 5:10 pm
lexingtonlady —You and Todd are on the same ship, SS Titanic.
Posted by: billy bob | December 7, 2011, 5:17 pm 5:17 pm
Obama has lost Virginia and Ohio. States he needs to win. Obama…one and done.
Posted by: gary | December 7, 2011, 5:48 pm 5:48 pm
For most voters its anybody but Obama in 2012.
Posted by: william | December 7, 2011, 5:49 pm 5:49 pm
YES—the people in America are waking up!! Maybe it is because they are tired of their President playing class warfare with their lives. You see Mr Obama, we are American citizens and proud of each other; some have more and some have less. However we all like the opportunity–the chance– to be whatever we want to be. One more characteristic we value Mr Obama is honesty and truthfulness…….try it sometime.
Posted by: whathappened08 | December 7, 2011, 5:50 pm 5:50 pm
Is this really surprising? Anybody with any intelligence should run as fast as they can from the democrat party.
Posted by: Linda | December 7, 2011, 6:21 pm 6:21 pm
The GOP needs to take notice here as well because there seems to be a ground swell of anti-incumbent mood growing in the American electorate. There is dissatisfaction on both sides amongst the less fervent party types. The GOP does not seem to realize that 2010 was not strictly a GOP victory but more of an attempt to introduce new blood into Congress; I believe in the hopes that they would shake up the establishment types on both sides and bring some semblance of sanity to an otherwise corrupt system. On top of everything else the old GOP guard in the Senate then tries to undo the compromise THEY agreed to in an attempt to keep Democrats true to their word. This left the establishment types in the GOP facing serious questions about their fiscal credibility. So, you have the moderates in both parties starting to unalign themselves with both the Democrats and the GOP which does not bode well for incumbents of any party come 2012. My personal prediction is Obama squeaks out a victory but then has to work with a Republican controlled House and Senate.
Posted by: MnNice | December 7, 2011, 6:24 pm 6:24 pm
MnNice | December 7, 2011, 6:24 pm —— You said “notice here as well because there seems to be a ground swell of anti-incumbent mood growing in the American electorate.” ——– GOOD!!! — Because there are twice as many Dems up for re-election than GOP candidates…. yeah… anti-incumbency is good!!!
Posted by: TheLoyalOpposition | December 7, 2011, 6:46 pm 6:46 pm
Yup, those obama/biden bumper stickers are being scrapped off cars and SUVs. For sure, my neighbors won’t be putting any obama signs in their yards for the 2012 election. This time around, they all are saying “anybody but obama.”
Change! Ain’t it wonderful?
Lol. :)
Posted by: ceeLeelee | December 7, 2011, 9:15 pm 9:15 pm
The Obama administration is anything but open and transparent and he is the master of partisanship and class warfare, the end of his administration can’t come soon enough.
Posted by: Carol | December 7, 2011, 10:35 pm 10:35 pm
I’m going third party. Obama was put into office to undo what Bush did. He failed to do so and that is why he won’t get a second term.
Posted by: whatever | December 8, 2011, 3:09 am 3:09 am
I left the democrat party in 2007 for the same reason, and said so at the time. Democrat leadership now represents the principles and ideas or communism, not what the Founders had in mind for America. I just didn’t think they’d actually elect an communist president to prove it. Since when has Envy been touted as an American principle?!
Posted by: clayusmcret | December 8, 2011, 6:27 am 6:27 am
No doubt it’s because all these Democrats are racists. Why else would anyone do anything that would hurt Obama.
Posted by: Robert Taylor | December 8, 2011, 9:13 am 9:13 am
look for unprecedented voter fraud, vote buying and rigging from obama and co… it’s going to be civil war if he cheats his way back into the white house.
Posted by: kirche | December 8, 2011, 10:16 am 10:16 am
Notice Amy didnt give any rebutal to HAVAWRD professor for the DEMONS. Standard Democrat bias at ABC as usual.
Posted by: joie | December 8, 2011, 10:51 am 10:51 am
I, too, was a Democrat—for 43 years! No way in he@@ will I be voting Democrat in 2012! I have to agree with many, many Americans—ANYBODY but Obama in 2012,
Posted by: DixT | December 8, 2011, 11:02 am 11:02 am
“What [Obama] needs to do is present himself as somebody above partisan politics,…” There is NO way Obama can present himself like this except to those who paid NO attention to anything that he has done (a large base in his ’08 victory, obviously)
Posted by: Paul in Ohio | December 8, 2011, 11:27 am 11:27 am
AS a registered Democrat ive voted as an independent voter all my life trying to pick the middle of the road candidates its why I voted for Mitch MCConnel in the past but his shift over the years to ultra right caused me to rethink my vote in his case. and to reconsider each of my votes since the incumbents turned more partisan since the Regain era and the race to deregulate the market agenda hit our nation has fallen down hill.. Rules are needed to pick good and bad sides of a situation so yes my shift as an independent will be to the left to rid us of the extremest right view Neither extreme is correct view but mid way is best to keep off the rocks of life.
Posted by: kent | December 8, 2011, 12:27 pm 12:27 pm
“A report released today by the centrist think-tank Third Way showed that more than 825,000 voters in eight key battleground states have fled the Democratic Party since Obama won election in 2008. … But Jarding argues that could actually help Obama, if he plays his cards right.”
Suuuurrrrrrre that will help Mr. Obama. Right about the time when pigs sprout wings and fly to freedom in New Pigolia.
Posted by: Asok Asus | December 8, 2011, 1:17 pm 1:17 pm
What this will do is result in more fringe candidates on both sides like we’re seeing in the Republican Party. With moderates/independents leaving the 2 parties and few open primary elections held those switching to independent status will only be able to choose between either a far-left or far-right candidate in the general election.
This raises the question, is it not more beneficial for general voters’ choices if moderates remain affiliated with one of the two parties in order to push them towards the center? Is this trend to switch to independent status reflect a desire in voters to simply make a statement or does it actually serve a purpose in the primaries where the major candidates are picked?
Posted by: MPBulletin | December 8, 2011, 1:23 pm 1:23 pm
I’ve been telling left-wingers, since the passage of ObamaCare, the Obama/Pelosi/Reid junta have thrown moderate Democrats over the cliff. Denial is just another lug in the in the progressives’ nut bag.
Posted by: TCop | December 8, 2011, 1:31 pm 1:31 pm
Percentages mean nothing (-5.4% D vs. -3.1% R) if the absolute number vary greatly, and they do. Many more registered GOP originally. Inane article.
Posted by: Sskar | December 8, 2011, 1:38 pm 1:38 pm
Too late, MP, the pendulum swing started in the late sixties and has been progressively swaying farther from the center.
Posted by: TCop | December 8, 2011, 1:41 pm 1:41 pm
In seven of the eight states, the partisan shift was much smaller than Obama’s margin in 2008. Based on this, North Carolina is the only one that flips. Yawn.
Posted by: Sammy | December 8, 2011, 3:27 pm 3:27 pm
Green Party. Time for a change.
Posted by: j | December 8, 2011, 3:42 pm 3:42 pm
RON PAUL 2012!
Posted by: gatersaw | December 8, 2011, 5:42 pm 5:42 pm
Thankfully this disaster of a man will be sent packing soon.
Only the severlly mentally damaged would even consider supporting this idiot.
Obama is as predicted the least qualified person to hold the office and easily the worst president in the modern history of the country.
Posted by: LogicalUS | December 8, 2011, 8:04 pm 8:04 pm
If the GOP wants to win over the independents, they’ll have to focus on their fiscal message about cutting waste and bringing back jobs (and fighting illegal immigration, too) and stay away from the religious nonsense. If the independents were into their social “morality” agenda, they’d register as Republicans and not as independents. Forget the gay marriage and abortion issues and focus on the things most important to Americans these days: jobs and taxes.
Posted by: Tula | December 8, 2011, 10:52 pm 10:52 pm
every democrat i know regrets voting for obama …
Posted by: kmc | December 9, 2011, 12:56 am 12:56 am
Every republican I know is a sociopath.
Posted by: azia | January 30, 2012, 1:09 am 1:09 am
It seems many of you never read the article, you just skimmed the title.
it says dems have lost 5.1 percentage since 2008. thats not the same as actually losing voters people. it means more people are registering as independents, thats it.
Posted by: Derrick | February 10, 2012, 1:14 pm 1:14 pm