CRYSTAL BALL: Our Predictions for Iowa Results
Email
Getty Images
We’re journalists, not prognosticators. But in this business, sometimes it is just an irresistible conversation line to turn to each other and ask, ‘so, what do you think is really going to happen?’
Monday morning on Good Morning America, Matthew Dowd and George Stephanopoulos put it out there. Dowd says he thinks Rick Santorum is going to snag first place in Tuesday’s Iowa Caucus. That’s a big prediction for a candidate who was trailing in last place in the polls just a few weeks ago. George predicts Romney will take first in the Caucus, but he says he “wouldn’t be surprised by Ron Paul or Santorum.”
And so, with the understanding that we really don’t know what’s going to happen for sure (nobody does), here are the predictions of some of the best political minds at ABC News. This is the order we predict the candidates will finish in Iowa. What do you think? Tell us below. And on Wednesday we’ll call out the winners. (and I use the phrase ‘winners loosely’…the only prize here is bragging rights - and the opportunity to lord your win over your friends and colleagues).
RICK KLEIN , Senior Washington Editor, World News with Diane Sawyer:
Romney, Santorum, Paul, Perry, Gingrich, Bachmann, Huntsman
AMY WALTER, ABC News Political Director
Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman
JONATHAN KARL, ABC News Senior Political Correspondent
Santorum, Romney, Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman
Z. BYRON WOLF, ABCNews.com Politics Editor
Romney, Perry, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Huntsman
(These predictions were altered before caucus time)
CHRIS GOOD, ABC News political unit
Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman
ELIZABETH HARTFIELD, ABC News political unit
Romney, Santorum, Paul, Perry, Gingrich, Bachmann, Huntsman
MATT NEGRIN, ABC News political reporter
Paul, Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman
SARA JUST, Senior Washington Editor, ABC News Digital
Paul, Romney, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, Bachman, Huntsman
AMY BINGHAM, ABC News political reporter
Romney, Paul, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, Bachmann, Huntsman
HUMA KHAN, ABC News digital reporter
Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman
KAREN TRAVERS, ABC News correspondent
Romney, Paul, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, Bachmann, Huntsman
GEORGE SANCHEZ, ABC News Assignment Editor
Santorum, Romney, Paul, Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman
SARAH PARNASS, ABC News’ wicked smart intern
Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Perry, Huntsman
Best Commencement Speeches of 2012 
Joe Biden Recalls Death of Wife, Daughter
We all talk about looking for ways to expand our economy. I believe we to not have to look any further than ourselves and others in the same room. I was at an unemployment support group. Then after I heard what occupations they were in, I realize there were enough different talents there to start a new company. I believe it will take “a village” to create many new companies. I am an Iowa voter. I am hoping to create a third room for independents and bipartisan others (Republicans and Democrats). I believe there are different talents that make up Republican voters and Democratic voters to build that “village” of Americans to expand our US economy. I believe we all are born with God given talents; though many have not discover these, yet. I believe we all have a small piece of solutions to our massive US economic puzzle. I believe, if we can work together as Americans, and not as Republican and Democrats; We will as a nation, obtain goals beyond our wildest dreams….Then everyone will win across our nation and across the globe…This is just an opinion…
Posted by: Dave Des Moines | January 3, 2012, 7:42 am 7:42 am
Wow, six out of nine pick Romney? Clearly, you’re all quite insulated from the political realities of Iowa. Romney doesn’t have the same get out the vote enthusiasm that Paul does by an order of magnitude. I see Romney underperforming big time and coming in third behind Santorum.
Posted by: Joe M | January 3, 2012, 8:48 am 8:48 am
Ron Paul is the winner. I am from Iowa and you people are quite out of touch with Iowa. This continued attempt to force Americans to choose anyone but Paul sickens me. I used to be a reporter in Waterloo, Iowa and what the press has turned into is a joke. You Tube has more accuracy than any mainstream news outlet.
Posted by: Georgia Hull | January 3, 2012, 8:54 am 8:54 am
Paul, Santorum, Romney, Gingrich. Huntsman, Bachmann. The eventual nominee will be Romney, and Santorum is well positioned to be his running mate because his solid conservative credentials willl help assuage conservative concerns about Mitt’s moderate record.
Posted by: DominickSr | January 3, 2012, 8:55 am 8:55 am
Posted by: Georgia Hull | January 3, 2012, 8:54 am 8:54 am
Sounds about right Georgia.
Ron Paul will probably win Iowa.
The dirty secret that the press won’t utter is the Bama Miester is afraid of Ron Paul.
Posted by: Noz | January 3, 2012, 9:10 am 9:10 am
The dirty secret that the press won’t utter is the Bama Miester is afraid of Ron Paul. Posted by: Noz | January 3, 2012, 9:10 am.
The Bama Meister? Are you referring to the President of the United States and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces? Or some guru at the University of Alabama?
Obama has no reason to fear Paul. Paul is crazy. He would get crushed in a general election, and his Party knows it. Which is why his Party will not pick him. When Paul’s name is NOT on the ballot in November, blame the Republicans. He’s THEIR man.
Posted by: A Cynic | January 3, 2012, 10:15 am 10:15 am
“The Bama Meister? Are you referring to the President of the United States and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces?” – A Cynic
Yep, and you would find a term of endearment for the Prez too if your handle were true.
Posted by: Noz | January 3, 2012, 10:43 am 10:43 am
Obama is terrified of facing Paul. He will be forced to answer real questions. Imagine him explaining Obamacare to Romney, the man who wrote the original.
Posted by: Ryan83 | January 3, 2012, 11:08 am 11:08 am
I’m voting Ron Paul even if he doesn’t get the nomination!! Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Posted by: Peter | January 3, 2012, 1:20 pm 1:20 pm
Again, it’s all about elect ability. Both parties are going to need the Independent vote for the win. So, when you pick your GOP nominee keep that in mind. This country down the middle is a moderate thinking country. Right now the middle class is hurting and what the candidates talks about on the stump, will be closely scrutinized by the voters. Be in the wrong corner and that candidate will pay with a big “L”.
Posted by: Indymind | January 3, 2012, 1:24 pm 1:24 pm
Paul will have supporters to make the empassioned speeches that sway the fickle Iowa voters. Caucuses are won with organization and emotion, not logical concerns. Advantage Paul.
Posted by: Greggw | January 3, 2012, 1:45 pm 1:45 pm
The seven dwarfs …
Posted by: velvers | January 3, 2012, 5:15 pm 5:15 pm
Paul, Romney, Santorum…the rest with insignificant #’s.
Best to beat Obama being Paul.
Posted by: jen2b | January 3, 2012, 6:15 pm 6:15 pm
Drudge is now reporting Ron Paul has risen to 31%, and Romney has dropped to 23%.
Posted by: blind spot | January 3, 2012, 6:16 pm 6:16 pm
“…here are the predictions of some of the “best political minds” at ABC News.”
An oxymoron? ;-{)}
Posted by: Jack Moran, DC | January 3, 2012, 6:21 pm 6:21 pm
For the first time in Iowa Caucas history, the Iowa Republican Party is going to count the votes in secret. Hmmmmmm……..I wonder?
Posted by: bob | January 3, 2012, 6:22 pm 6:22 pm
For the first time in Iowa Caucas history, the Iowa Republican Party is going to count the votes in secret. Hmmmmmm……..I wonder?
Posted by: bob | January 3, 2012, 6:22 pm 6:22 pm
They’ll do anything to keep Ron Paul from winning.
Posted by: blind spot | January 3, 2012, 6:31 pm 6:31 pm
Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Romney,Bachmann, Perry,Huntsman-in order of those who make the most sense.
Posted by: Donna P | January 3, 2012, 6:32 pm 6:32 pm
Prediction for tonight’s IA Caucus: 1 Santorum 2 Paul 3 Romney 4 Perry 5 Gingrich 6 Bachman 7 Huntsman
Posted by: Richard | January 3, 2012, 7:16 pm 7:16 pm
the main stream media is a joke.. ron paul is the winner.. and has the best chance of taking the presidency from obama.
basically anyone has that chance.. its just paul is the only one not on the same pay roll as all the other candidates and obama..
you got to ask yourself. why is there so much ridicule and blind eyes towards ron paul?
don’t give me the “he’s crazy” he’s not.. he’s 100% constitutional. and his voting record proves it.. nothing crazy about the constitution.
RON PAUL 2012.. wether or not the GOP commits voter fraud which they will (the counting being in secret and all)
not to mention the israeli defense firm who is hired to count the votes
Posted by: thebluecadet | January 3, 2012, 7:36 pm 7:36 pm