Why Democrats Think the GOP Race Might Last Until June
Email
Paul Sancya / AP Photo
Game it out for a second. Look at the calendar.
This GOP race could go on for a long time, and Democrats profess to be thrilled about that prospect, about Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich continuing to bloody each other up, aided by Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.
Why would this go on for awhile? Because a combination of an elongated schedule, new Republican National Committee rules, and some quirks of fate have diminished the importance of individual contests and reduced the ability for knock-out punches.
Part of the reason for this schedule is then-RNC chair Michael Steele wanted an extended primary season so as to ensure a strong nominee; the elongated Barack Obama v. Hillary Clinton race indubitably made Obama a better candidate, and got out a lot of his “dirty laundry” – Reverend Jeremiah Wright, Tony Rezko, William Ayres, flag pins and such – long before the general election, so that his campaign could by the fall claim it was all old news.
But top Democrats are hoping that won’t happen with the GOP race, that it will just provide more moments of Romney calling Gingrich “erratic” and Gingrich calling into question Romney’s business practices.
Here’s how top Democrats see it: On January 31 comes the Florida primary, as we know. Because the Sunshine State has opted to hold its primary on an earlier date than the RNC had sanctioned, Florida’s 99 delegates have been shrunk to 50 as penalty, lessening the state’s impact. These delegates will be winner-take all.
Whoever wins – Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul – it’s unlikely that the other three will drop out. As of now Romney, Gingrich and Santorum can brag about winning one contest. One of their rivals’ jumping to two doesn’t change the dynamic all that much, they can argue. Especially when all it means is 50 delegates out of 1,144 needed to win the GOP presidential nomination.
What comes after Florida? February brings four GOP caucuses – Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada. That’s a whole month for just 128 delegates, 5% of the total that can be won. All of these 128 delegates will be allocated proportionally. This won’t encourage anyone to drop out – it will keep folks in the race. Third place finishers in caucuses can get delegates.
February ends with winner-take-all primaries in two other states that have been penalized by the RNC, Michigan and Arizona — a total of 116 delegates. All of this means that by the end of February, 85% of the delegates will still not have been awarded.
Then comes Super Tuesday, which will be less important this year, diminishing the opportunity for a knockout punch:
* It comes a month later in this election cycle than it did in 2008 — March 6, 2012 versus February 5, 2008.
* In this year’s Super Tuesday a smaller number of delegates will be at stake — 466 delegates in 11 states this year, versus 1,069 delegates in 21 states in 2008. Gingrich could do well in his home state Georgia, and other southern states such as Tennessee. Romney and Paul are the only ones on the Virginia ballot, and he will no doubt romp in Massachusetts and Vermont.
* Plus, many, many more of this year’s Super Tuesday delegates will be awarded proportionally as opposed to winner-take-all.
After Super Tuesday 64% of the total delegates will still be at stake, with 28 states not having yet voted.
April showers bring some Winner-Take-All showers that might allow Mitt Romney to build some delegate momentum. On April 24, northeast states such as New York, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island will offer an estimated 231 delegates. (If Santorum has stayed in the race this long, his home state of Pennsylvania also holds its contest this day.)
But there are other states holding primaries in April where a conservative non-Romney could do well – take the Texas Primary on April 3. The governor has endorsed Gingrich, and the Texas State Republican Party may change its rules to award its 155 delegates winner take all, possibly offering Gingrich a counterbalance to the April 24th contests. Democrats hope the April 3 Texas Primary and the April 24 Northeast Primary essentially cancel each other out.
More than 25% of the delegates will still be un-awarded as the Republicans head into May. California and New Jersey don’t vote until June 5.
And that’s why Democrats think and wish this could be long and bloody for their rivals.
-Jake Tapper
Republicans Duke it Out in Arizona 
Rick Santorum Defends Earmarks
I also hope that the Republican primary period lasts quite a while. I want all of the dirty laundry to come out now. I want Obama to know he is going to have to answer the same questions that the republicans have been answering for months. Screw the moderators, the Republican winner will ignore the moderator and ask Obama their own questions. The Republican nominee will have the job that the media (especially the white house press corps (not corpse) has refused to do over the past five years. I pitty the moderators, their power is gone…AWSOME.
Posted by: I am John Galt | January 24, 2012, 2:30 pm 2:30 pm
Why not point out that 564 delegates Santorum and Gingrich aren’t eligible for?
Kind of makes it hard for him to win? He’s not even on the ballot in Virginia.
It’s going to come down to Obama winning or Ron Paul. Why?
Three elections so far clearly show:
Youth vote clearly Ron Paul wins.
Independent vote is clearly Paul’s.
Crossover democrats – only for Paul.
Toss in Paul supporters won’t vote for anyone but Paul since nobody but him is serious about fixing the economy, ending endless wars, fixing the tax code, etc.
It will be a brokered convention.
And Obama definitely doesn’t want to be up against Paul.
Posted by: John | January 24, 2012, 2:33 pm 2:33 pm
I don’t think it really matters. I honestly can’t see anyone in the field beating Obama. They all come with too much baggage that the Dems will be able to exploit – flip flopping elite vs. erratic party insider (though he is trying to shed that).
Posted by: Independent | January 24, 2012, 2:37 pm 2:37 pm
I don’t think that Paul will be able to beat Obama once people realize that Paul wants to radically roll back social programs. He is just too extreme.
Posted by: Independent | January 24, 2012, 2:40 pm 2:40 pm
The Democrats want the Republican primary to go on and on and on so scrutiny won’t turn to Obama’s dismal record as president.
Posted by: JustAGuy | January 24, 2012, 2:44 pm 2:44 pm
“And that’s why Democrats think and wish this could be long and bloody for their rivals.” The Dems should “wish” a lot of things. They need a lot more than a long Repub primary season for Obama to be reelected.
Posted by: Msut | January 24, 2012, 2:44 pm 2:44 pm
0bama WHERE is YOUR background information @ !
Posted by: cd | January 24, 2012, 2:50 pm 2:50 pm
Ron Paul against Obama? Give me a break. RP would become dog meat.
- Three elections clearly show – no confidence, no wins
- Youth vote can’t determine between “reality TV” and “reality debates”
- Where are you getting Independent’s are clearly for RP? Prove it – the statistics don’t show it
- Cross over democrats for Paul – maybe it’s because RP is more democrate than Republican.
The fact that RP supporters won’t vote for any other Republican candidate just goes to prove why no one trust him. At the general election, I fully expect all RP supporters to go running back to Obama.. this has been the plan all along. RP people are just a bunch of disruptive spoiled brats.
Posted by: Dandama | January 24, 2012, 2:50 pm 2:50 pm
RON PAUL is the only candidate with the wisdom to effect change on our country and this includes getting rid of so much waste in the federal government including many cabinet level departments. Thanks God for RON PAUL. REVOLUTION.
Posted by: David | January 24, 2012, 2:54 pm 2:54 pm
Because of the redistricting lawsuit filed by the DNC, the Texas primary is likely to be pushed back to May and more likely June. It was originally scheduled to be part of the March Super Tuesday and the Supreme Court’s weak response all but guarantees further delays. The state needs at least 60 days from the time the court case is finally resolved to be able to hold the election because of absentee balloting, etc.
I assure you the Democrats have all but assured this race goes though June. Meanwhile the GOP candidates pound on each other and spend more and more of their campaign dollars while the president continues to build an unprecedented war chest.
Posted by: Todd Kinsey | January 24, 2012, 3:06 pm 3:06 pm
Written by Jake Tapper, who’s in love with Obama. Jake Tapper has zero understanding of a conservative, so his opinions are irrelevant. Actually, I’m now angry with myself for the one minute I wasted in reading and responding to ignorance.
Posted by: Steinmann | January 24, 2012, 3:09 pm 3:09 pm
As much as ole Jake would like to revise history, I don’t recall endless news cycles and shattering tell-all’s about Wright, Ayers, and Rezko. I do, however, recall Steph asking one question and getting a demotion though.
Posted by: n8 | January 24, 2012, 3:21 pm 3:21 pm
I don’t think it really matters. I honestly can’t see anyone in the field beating Obama. They all come with too much baggage that the Dems will be able to exploit – flip flopping elite vs. erratic party insider (though he is trying to shed that).
Posted by: Independent | January 24, 2012, 2:37 pm 2:37 pm
Aint’ it the truth.
Posted by: Sam | January 24, 2012, 3:30 pm 3:30 pm
Why would Democrats be happy? Would they have forgotten the Obama vs Hillary primary four years ago? Didn’t hurt Obama much.
In the end it won’t matter how long the primary goes. Once the general election starts it’s a whole new game.
Posted by: Jason Miller | January 24, 2012, 3:43 pm 3:43 pm
Dr. Paul doesn’t want to end the Social programs right now or in the near future. He’s the only one that wants to save it. The US govt. spends 64% more on the military than the top ten countries in the world. $687,105,000,000, more than 687 billion dollars in 2010.
The US govt. has more than 700 bases around the world, we can surely bring some of them home to defend the borders of the US, and have the troops spend money here.
We can save money with the military, yet still get the most powerful military in the world and save the social programs.
Dr. Ron Paul would run over Obama because he is honest, pro-peace, and will do what he says, with a record to back it up, unlike Obama.
Posted by: Danny | January 24, 2012, 3:52 pm 3:52 pm
He is an evil, vile, enemy of the state and should be treated no differently than any other enemy of the state.
Posted by: Fred | January 24, 2012, 3:53 pm 3:53 pm
What impressed me about the NBC debste is how clueless the 2 junior questioners were about what conservatives and libertarians believe. They were stunned when their questions proved not to be wedge issues either between the candidates or between the candidates and the American People. They looked like deer caught in headlites! Yes, my dears… Conservatives are rational, caring beings, not greedy monsters as Liberals try to convince us they are!
Posted by: Karl Quick | January 24, 2012, 3:58 pm 3:58 pm
I don’t believe one word that comes out of a dim-o-crat. Not one word – nor of their lapdog press. I totally distrust them both – totally.
Posted by: bo1921 | January 24, 2012, 4:19 pm 4:19 pm
ABC news is engaging in a political attack again.
Nobody in either party will be nominated until the convention.
Not even 10 percent of the delegates required to win the nomination have yet been voted on.
It was always going to go on until June.
What a total BS story – ABC as a propaganda arm of a radical left White House.
Posted by: Reality Check | January 24, 2012, 4:20 pm 4:20 pm
ABC as a propaganda arm of a radical left White House.
Posted by: Reality Check | January 24, 2012, 4:20 pm 4:20 pm
It’s all those commies at Disneyland! Run for your lives!
Posted by: Bill | January 24, 2012, 4:30 pm 4:30 pm
Media hopes it will last…keeping the focus of their guy failing.
Posted by: Bob Forsberg | January 24, 2012, 4:41 pm 4:41 pm
Obama didn’t secure enough delegates in 2008 until June 3rd! Has everyone forgotten already? And it turned out fine for him in getting elected. One advantage in having a lengthy GOP battle is it makes it harder for Obama to direct his aim on one candidate.
Posted by: Brian Barker | January 24, 2012, 4:45 pm 4:45 pm
Will this story be on Democrat Party Operatives Tonight at 6:30 eastern?
Posted by: Jeff | January 24, 2012, 5:08 pm 5:08 pm
It’s now a global expression,
Economies in recession,
Bush isn’t to blame,
(The attempt is lame),
It’s called “Obama Depression”.
Posted by: Iambic PentaMaster | January 24, 2012, 5:19 pm 5:19 pm
Why doesn’t ABC admit they ARE The democrat Party?
Posted by: Bruce | January 24, 2012, 5:56 pm 5:56 pm
It won’t do them any good. If the process goes all the way through October, the democrats still have to run Obama and the tremors will make their way all the way down the ticket. The record turnout in SC, a state that normally has a large turnout should send a message that Obama is toast.
Posted by: poet756 | January 24, 2012, 6:22 pm 6:22 pm
It’s actually good for them for it to drag out. Free press and drowning out Obama. Its Obama who loses to a long Republican slug fest. Obama will have to target all candidates early and waste money on potential non-nominees if he wants to succeed.
Posted by: R. Glenn | January 24, 2012, 6:44 pm 6:44 pm
My bets on the serial adulterer.
Posted by: Jim Bob jr. | January 24, 2012, 6:44 pm 6:44 pm
Its already over…..Mittens lost. Crown Gingrich!
Posted by: rippedpockets | January 24, 2012, 6:45 pm 6:45 pm
POET756: You do realize that many Democrats registered as Republicans and voted against Mitt Romney.
Posted by: bob | January 24, 2012, 6:47 pm 6:47 pm
VOTE Dr. Ron Paul 2012. For GOP republicans, Here’s the truth in beating Obama,
Newt and Romney both have way too much baggage to beat Obama, Sanatorum very skepticle,
Ron Paul is consistant with his voting policy issues for 20 years of legislature, only he tends to
never sacrifice his core values of understanind Liberty and the US Constitution as it pertains
to the American people, and, our way of life, and how that has been changed over the years,
and, he’s a great defender of truth and Liberty for all, he’s preached the US Constitution as having all the answers to our contemporary problems that pleague this great country.
Obama doesn’t want a showdown with Dr. Ron Paul, because he’s got no excess baggage to plunge upon, and Dr. Paul has much substantial fact on his side, DO THE HOMEWORK.
VOTE Dr. Ron Paul and eliminate the opposition so we can get this country running again.
Vote Ron Paul 2012.
Posted by: Dean | January 24, 2012, 6:57 pm 6:57 pm
who cares what the Dems think – all we care about is getting Obama out of office – he’s such a waste in every way read this web site and see how he operates —- he hires professional bloggers —-
Posted by: Sci | January 24, 2012, 7:14 pm 7:14 pm
Ron Paul this and Ron Paul that. NEWSFLASH: Most Republicans DON’T like Ron Paul! I like the guy myself, but I’m a Dem who admires his honesty and consistency. But his foreign policy and social issue stands do not fit with that of the Republican party.
Posted by: Austin Jim | January 24, 2012, 8:04 pm 8:04 pm
Ron Paul is the only option. The only reason people don’t believe he has a chance is because they’re sheep and believe everything the lame stream media tells them!
Too extreme? Why, because he wants to be non-interventionist (not isolationists like the media says) and get rid of useless government factions? The Repbulicrats don’t like him because they get rich of the wars they help create. Last I checked though the Dems glory boy is continuing the wars and creating others (Libya).
You sheeple need to wake up and realize there is no left or right, democrat or republican. They all work for special interest groups not the American people!
Ron Paul is the only one with a firm voting record and the only one who has never flip flopped on issues.
Extreme. Sure I guess Ron Paul is extreme if your idea of extreme is cutting government spending, making the government smaller, taking care of America first, and actually applying the Constitution and upholding it, then yeah…I guess he might be extreme (or Sane).
But, some of you like your handouts so that’s probably why he’s not your guy.
Posted by: Lame Stream Media | January 24, 2012, 9:04 pm 9:04 pm
THE DEMS AND THE LIBERAL MEDIA BETTER HAVE A BIG OCTOBER SURPRISE..BECAUSE THEY WONT HAVE ANYHTING ELSE TO USE BY THEN,,,IT WILL ALL BE OLD NEWS…YAWN…
AND OF COURSE THE REPUBS WONT BE ATTACKING EACH OTHER MUCH LONGER AND WILL FOCUS ON OBAMA..DAY AFTER DAY AFTER DAY AFTER DAY…
GONA BE FUN WATCHING THE MSM DEFLECTING ALL THESE ATTACKS AND SHOWING THOSE WHO STILL ARENT CERTAIN OF THEIR BIAS THAT THEY ARE AS BIAS AS IT GETS.
Posted by: JEFF | January 24, 2012, 9:07 pm 9:07 pm
@John 2:33: the Dems would have a field day with Ron Paul. When’s the last time a Democrat presidential candidate got to run to the right of the Republican on national defense and foreign policy.
I’ve voted Republican in every Presidential election since I turned 18. If Ron Paul gets the nomination, I will, for the first time in my life, vote for the Democrat. Obama will continue to trash our economy. That can be repaired. Ron Paul will get Americsns killed and would abandon foreign policies paid for by American blood and treasure. His naive approach to terror sponsoring countries like Iran will get Americans killed. I won’t have that on my conscience.
Posted by: MrSpkr | January 24, 2012, 10:18 pm 10:18 pm
While Ron Paul has some real strengths, I find it very hard to believe that we brought the 9/11 attacks upon ourselves. According to Paul, we provoked Al Quada to attack us and we got what we deserved. This is quite frankly is a very repulsive view.
Posted by: Jerry Thomas | January 24, 2012, 10:19 pm 10:19 pm
Or Romney could collapse. He’s losing electability! That’s the only reason anyone liked him!
Does anyone seriously think a guy can win who has Swiss bank accounts who makes more money in a day DOING NOTHING than the average American makes in a year WORKING?
Posted by: Tony | January 24, 2012, 10:47 pm 10:47 pm
TO ALL THE LIMP ONES WHO CONSTANTLY SAY, “ALL THE GOP GANDIDATES COME WITH TOO MUCH BAGGAGE, SO NONE OF CAN BEAT BARRY”. DO ANY OH THEM HAVE AS MUCH “BAGGAGE” AS BARRY – THE WORST POTUS OF ALL TIME!
Posted by: Stop Watching MSM | January 24, 2012, 10:49 pm 10:49 pm
“Does anyone seriously think a guy can win who has Swiss bank accounts who makes more money in a day DOING NOTHING than the average American makes in a year WORKING?”
Posted by: Tony | January 24, 2012, 10:47 pm 10:47 pm
We currently have a president who occupies the most powerful chief executive position in the world yet had no chief executive experience when he got elected. And it shows.
Posted by: David | January 24, 2012, 11:56 pm 11:56 pm
America needs to ask:
If one needs to be a “natural born citizen” to be POTUS, Mr. Obama, why did you swear that you were qualified for the ballot when, as a Constitutional law professor, you knew that (1) you needed to be born on U.S. soil and (2) both of your parents had to be U.S. citizens at the time of your birth.
Why did you lie?
Then throw him out.
Posted by: RedMan | January 25, 2012, 12:05 am 12:05 am
This is NOT the negative the Dems dream of. No matter WHO is the nominee, ALL – Republicans, Conservatives, and Independents- will vote for that nominee. This election will be an ABO election: Anybody But Obama.
Posted by: Bonnie | January 25, 2012, 12:12 am 12:12 am
Ron Paul will not be the Republican nominee because the Republicans do not want him. Plain and simple. How hard is that to understand?
Posted by: Jon Baker | January 25, 2012, 12:19 am 12:19 am
I can clearly see that Mitt Romney is the only candidate, who can get elected against Obama’s svelte, pernicious, well-oiled, skull-breaking political machine. My fellow Republicans, have no idea what’s coming at them and Newt cannot convince Independents, moderates, Reagan democrats and libertarians to vote for him in sufficient numbers to achieve victory in the general election. Mr. Gingrich is a sure bet to loose against Pres. Obama.
Posted by: Michael Veritas | January 25, 2012, 12:52 am 12:52 am
It is deeply entertaining to watch the right talk about how this guy or that guy will beat President Obama. He will beat any one of the current folks in the field, probably with a higher margin than his first term, with one hand tied behind his back. He is the only grown-up in the room, and Americans are not stupid. They know an improving economy when they see it. They know a mature, balanced foreign policy when they see it. They know military and domestic strength when they see it. And from the right, they know weakness and greed when they see it. I know that eight years will offend their racist worldview, but they might as well accept that they have idiots running for president, and our current president is not an idiot.
Posted by: sdsportpilot | January 25, 2012, 1:27 am 1:27 am
Hillary won Super Tuesday. I wonder what kind of response the media will have if Newt does the same?
Posted by: echosierra | January 25, 2012, 2:38 am 2:38 am
Democrats crossed over and voted for McCain in 2000 and 2008. A lot of good that did. Any Democrats that cross over and vote for Ron Paul would just be voting for whatever Democrat is on the ticket in November.
Posted by: krp | January 25, 2012, 9:18 am 9:18 am
Does this mean the Deemocrats will stop planning their wag-the-dog/October surprise IRAN WAR to cover up the Emperor ObaMarxist Keenyatta’s domestic disasters?
Posted by: STRAIGHT TALK HAWK | January 25, 2012, 9:40 am 9:40 am
Democrats crossed over and voted for McCain in 2000 and 2008. A lot of good that did. Any Democrats that cross over and vote for Ron Paul would just be voting for whatever Democrat is on the ticket in November. Anyone who thinks that this would not be the case, simply refuses to see the big picture for blind devotion to a Messiah figure.
Posted by: krp | January 25, 2012, 9:51 am 9:51 am
The Democrats are safe from the dirt of their party because it’s under lock and key. There’s no proof what so ever of Obamas past and they like that very much which gives them the license to sling all the mud they can knowing there isn’t a thing we can do about it.
Posted by: mixplx | January 25, 2012, 10:25 am 10:25 am
In 2008 the Dems race last thru June McCain won Rep Race early, Obama won in November. If the Rep race lasts to August it will not matter for the Nov election.
Posted by: S Smithton | January 25, 2012, 12:13 pm 12:13 pm
“I don’t think that Paul will be able to beat Obama once people realize that Paul wants to radically roll back social programs. He is just too extreme. -Posted by: Independent | January 24, 2012, 2:40 pm 2:40 pm”
He’s not saying to get rid of all social programs forever. He’s saying they don’t belong at the Federal level. States are more than welcome to enact all of the programs that the citizens of that State approve.
This fear mongering that the programs will be gone forever under Paul are absurd!
Posted by: JP | January 25, 2012, 2:03 pm 2:03 pm