That's what ABC News contributor Matt Dowd told me this morning when I asked him what happens if Mitt Romney loses his home state of Michigan on February 28.

"This is a huge, crucial moment. I think it's actually the most important moment for Romney in this entire campaign up until now. The moment is - can he stop Rick Santorum like he stopped everybody else?" Dowd said.

"If Rick Santorum wins this I think what we're going to have is a new frontrunner for the first time in this race come after the Michigan primary going into Super Tuesday," he said.

Take a look at what else he said here: