Obama Bounces Back in Swing State Virginia
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President Obama’s standing with voters in Virginia has bounced back in the past month and a half, with a new poll putting him ahead of all potential GOP rivals for the first time in this election.
In hypothetical general election matchups, Obama bests Mitt Romney 47-43, Newt Gingrich 51-37, Rick Santorum 49-41 and Ron Paul 47-40, according to Quinnipiac University, which conducted the statewide poll Feb. 1-6.
The findings mark the first time in Virginia that Obama has moved ahead of Romney, who edged the president 44-42 in a December Quinnipiac poll. They also offer an encouraging sign for Obama’s re-election campaign.
Obama carried Virginia with 52.6 percent of the vote in 2008, turning the state blue for the first time since 1964, but enthusiasm for the president has significantly eroded. His job approval in the latest poll remains underwater at 46 percent.
Republicans have also been on the rise in Virginia, taking control of both chambers of the state legislature earlier this year and picking up U.S. House seats in the 2010 midterms.
As recently as November, an Obama campaign official declared Virginia “an absolute tossup.”
To be sure, Obama’s edge over Romney is “razor-thin,” notes Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Hamden, Conn. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
But Brown explained in a statement that “the keys are the president’s improved standing among independent voters and women in the Old Dominion.”
Obama holds a 4-point edge over Romney among independents and an 18-point lead among women, according to Quinnipiac.
“The Obama bump could be driven by the perception that the economy is improving. And the nasty GOP primary fight is not helping Romney, exposing swing voters to lots of negative attacks on him from within his own party.”
The Obama surge is evident in other 2012 swing states and national polls.
Approval of Obama climbed 10 points between October and January in New Hampshire, according to a WMUR-University of New Hampshire poll released last week.
Fifty percent of Americans in the latest national ABC News-Washington Post poll approve of Obama’s job performance, the most since spring.
Obama now leads Romney among registered voters by a slight 51-45 percent, in the ABC-Post poll, the first time either has cracked 50 percent in a series of matchups since spring.
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Posted by: yep I said that | February 8, 2012, 3:49 pm 3:49 pm
I’m not surprised. The good people of Virginia didn’t like the news about the front running Republican candidates. Really, Romney is one of the 1% with no interest in helping the rest of us, Newt has some really wacky ideas like a moon base while we have a huge national debt and Santorum doesn’t think women should have abortions even if they are raped.
Posted by: Librarian53 | February 8, 2012, 4:06 pm 4:06 pm
Republicans have also been on the rise in Virginia, taking control of both chambers of the state legislature earlier this year and picking up U.S. House seats in the 2010 midterms.
—-This tells me that their poll is way off base.
Posted by: billy bob | February 8, 2012, 4:19 pm 4:19 pm
I’m a Brit and we always pay a lot more attention to your elections than you do to ours. Understandably as who is going to be the POTUS has a lot more significance for the world than who will rule the roost in Westminster. But I’ve never seen a US primary season getting as much attention as this current Republican circus. Not good attention either. ALL the current Republican contenders are seen as and being treated as jokes. There has been a bit less to laugh about since Bachmann, Cain and Perry dropped out of the race but the remaining four are still providing plenty of chuckles. Santorum and Paul are Creationists which seems to everybody outside the US to automatically rule them out. How could anyone who can’t grasp one of the most proven ideas in science lead America in to the 21st century? Gingrich and Romney fair a bit better but not much. Is this bunch really the best your great country can come up with? The whole world is watching. And laughing. Four more years for Obama, please.
Posted by: 2hundredthousand | February 8, 2012, 4:25 pm 4:25 pm
Ah yes, still nothing has changed: Obama still sucks. And he’ll still be sucking in November.
Posted by: sai | February 8, 2012, 4:46 pm 4:46 pm
Actually, I am surprised that this many people can be this easily bamboozled by Obama at this late date. But it serves my preferences very well.
Posted by: librarian53 | February 8, 2012, 4:50 pm 4:50 pm
2hundredthousand, sorry but your book is both boring and sheer bs. Try a new schtick — the fake “wise Brit” thing ain’t working at all. LOL.
Posted by: Jerseybabe | February 8, 2012, 4:55 pm 4:55 pm
“The whole world is watching. And laughing. ”
Posted by: 2hundredthousand
And that’s why we will be replacing Obama in November. Oh, and by the way, you’re a Brit just like my dog is a Brit, and my dog is from Colorado.
Posted by: Jinx it | February 8, 2012, 4:58 pm 4:58 pm
The juvenile right wing posts here show exactly why people are moving away from the Republicans in droves.
Posted by: Dan | February 8, 2012, 5:01 pm 5:01 pm
Actually Va. has come through recession so far fairly well since we got rid of Kaine. Obama almost made him his VP, but he took ole one bullet sheriff Biden who really has a hard time just knowing what day it is. Since we got rid of the dem Kaine we are doing much better than Pelosi’s state, Reid’s state and Obam’s state, all of which are broke. See any connection there?
Posted by: specialty57 | February 8, 2012, 5:06 pm 5:06 pm
This supposed “bounce’ is no more meaningful than a kid’s kickball bouncing down the road and on down into a sewer drain or into a muddy ditch.
Posted by: Jamica | February 8, 2012, 5:10 pm 5:10 pm
Right Dan. When they read X Republicans (forest gump) post they can see how intelligent the liberals are. Besides, I have not seen the republicans moving out in droves but I did see alot of democrats sent to early retirement last November. A record number of them. Thanks to President Pelosi, VP Reid and their side kick Obam.
Posted by: specialty57 | February 8, 2012, 5:12 pm 5:12 pm
Perhaps Obama will get even more of a “bounce” if Michelle goes on Ellen again and does some situps and cartwheels to go with those 25 half pushups from before. LOL!
Posted by: Obama's Cartoon Ears | February 8, 2012, 5:19 pm 5:19 pm
“…thick in head”
Posted by: 2hundredthousand
That part is true, I’m sure. Thanks for owning up to it. As for the rest of your lame schtick, it’s quite old and threadbare. We see it in every major election — the fake “wise foreign person” telling us how to vote and that the world is watching and what his or her country supposedly thinks. It’s absolute BS, but it is mildly persuasive to the super gullible, like those who voted for Obama the first time around.
Posted by: jerseybabe | February 8, 2012, 5:24 pm 5:24 pm
OK, 2hundredthousand, who cares if you’re a Brit or not? I sure don’t. You’re still a clanky and clunky partisan hack, quite obviously. Not to mention lying very badly in generalized terms about the “views from Europe”. Be any nationality you please. Doesn’t make the propaganda smell any better.
Posted by: Jackson | February 8, 2012, 5:28 pm 5:28 pm
‘Of course the rest of the world doesn’t get a vote.”
Posted by: 2hundredthousand
That’s right, mate. Nor should they. But you can continue posting nonsensical crap here. Knock yerself out, nonce.
Posted by: Brit | February 8, 2012, 5:31 pm 5:31 pm
“This supposed “bounce’ is no more meaningful than a kid’s kickball bouncing down the road and on down into a sewer drain or into a muddy ditch.”
Posted by: Jamica
Yes, truth. November is a long way away, and the longer-term for Obama is down, not up. But that’s only because he is such a corrupt failure, lol.
Posted by: same again now | February 8, 2012, 5:35 pm 5:35 pm
Is this bunch really the best your great country can come up with? The whole world is watching. And laughing.
Posted by: 2hundredthousand | February 8, 2012, 4:25 pm 4:25 pm
Two words: Gordon Brown. Nuff said.
Posted by: Sad But True | February 8, 2012, 5:38 pm 5:38 pm
I tried to stop them from enacting Romneycare too, but the Democrats liked it so much…what could I do?
Posted by: mitt the Ripper | February 8, 2012, 5:50 pm 5:50 pm
This poll is a joke. Republicans took control of the Virginia legislature in the 2011 elections just a couple of months ago for the first time in years. Repubs are also looking real good to capture another Senate seat in Virginia this November. ABC is really doing its best to pull the democrats out of the gutter.
Posted by: frank | February 8, 2012, 5:55 pm 5:55 pm
TWOTHOUSANDYEARS I’m a Brit and we always pay a lot more attention to your elections than you do to ours.—You really need to find another site because no gives a crap about what you think. You are a citizen of a country who we kicked its butt twice and had to pull it out of the frying pan twice.
Posted by: gary | February 8, 2012, 5:58 pm 5:58 pm
If I had a choice between Obama winning a second term or the Democrats retaining the Senate majority, I’d take Obama winning a second term. That way Obama would either have to sign bills crossing his desk or veto them. No more masking true convictions. No more voting “present”. No more Harry Reid running interference.
Posted by: newcountryman | February 8, 2012, 5:59 pm 5:59 pm
2HundredThousand (4:25 PM); When is the royal family due for their next tax payer funded allowance increase? And exactly what do they DO?
Posted by: newcountryman | February 8, 2012, 6:05 pm 6:05 pm
Intrade has Obama’s re-election chances at 54%.
Truth is that Republican voter turnout has been below the levels of 2008, and was again Tuesday. Republicans claim to be fervent in their desire to defeat the president but they can’t work up much enthusiasm for the candidates of their ilk.And who can blame them even if they won’t flat out admit how lame their candidates are on here? They’re lame. We know when their chatting with their friends they’re slapping their foreheads and saying to each other, why do I stick with this uninspired party? Heck, look at the comments at conservative and Republican blogs. They can’t stand their own candidates.
Posted by: Jen | February 8, 2012, 6:06 pm 6:06 pm
Posted by: Jen | February 8, 2012, 6:06 pm 6:06 pm
When Obama gets re-elected I hope he can use his office to revoke the first amendment. Then we can finally suppress all political dissent. It should be no problem turning this country into Venezuela in four more years. We’ll finally see Marxism done right. That’s change I’ve been waiting for.
Posted by: Jen | February 8, 2012, 6:17 pm 6:17 pm
Hey, 2HUNDREDTHOUSAND. Well, I know I am a real Brit, and I readily see that you are full of it, clear up to the brim. Even if you are “British”, which I do doubt, the fact is that there are conservatives and liberals in all of the countries in Europe, naturally including the UK, so your silly blowhard pontifications about Europe uniformly loving Obama are nonsense (or lies) in the extreme. Furthermore, why should the US care anyway what Europe thinks when it is in such dire shape itself? Even Britain, which is in better shape than most of Europe, is in no position at all to tell the the US which candidate to pick for president. Your whole pose is pompous and asinine. And hypocritical in the extreme.
Posted by: A Real Brit | February 8, 2012, 6:30 pm 6:30 pm
Jen, I also would like to see the Venezuelan model put in place here. I was going to say the Grecian model, but they are a bit too insolvent, even for my liberal tastes. And suppressing political dissent is sometimes very necessary, as we found out in the far older days in Britain.
Posted by: 2HUNDREDTHOUSAND | February 8, 2012, 6:36 pm 6:36 pm
TWOTHOUSANDYEARS isn’t a Brit. He is a American liberal jacka$$
Posted by: whining liberal | February 8, 2012, 6:38 pm 6:38 pm
Posted by: lame name stealer/ February 8, 2012, 6:17 pm 6:17 pm
You do cliched overwrought parody quite well, and even throw a few dogwhistles in there, but even for all that exaggeration and flailing about in desperation, you can’t deny the blatant enthusiasm gap.
Intrade. Obama. 54%.
Posted by: Jen | February 8, 2012, 6:47 pm 6:47 pm
—-Gallup 47% today…bounces around from 43 to 47 depending on whether Oblather is running his big mouth.
Posted by: jen | February 8, 2012, 7:08 pm 7:08 pm
When they read X Republicans (forest gump) post they can see how intelligent the liberals are.
Posted by: specialty57 | February 8, 2012, 5:12 pm 5:12 pm
Forest gump’s posts (while humorous) tower above the majority right wing posts on this blog.
And yes, people have been running away from the Republicans in droves. Congress approval has dropped to record lows since the Republicans were elected, and in generic Democrat vs. Republican polls, the Republicans have lost 3% in the past year, whereas the Democrats have gained 3%.
Posted by: Dan | February 8, 2012, 7:08 pm 7:08 pm
More States Move to GOP in 2011–Democrats have lost their solid political party affiliation advantage in 18 states since 2008, while Republicans have gained a solid advantage in 6 states. A total of 17 states were either solidly Republican or leaning Republican in their residents’ party affiliation in 2011, up from 10 in 2010 and 5 in 2008.======Gallup Feb 2 2012
Posted by: dan | February 8, 2012, 7:17 pm 7:17 pm
Forrest Gump (aka X-Repub) usually doesn’t comment so much on the issue at hand as he comments on other people’s comments.
Posted by: newcountryman | February 8, 2012, 7:21 pm 7:21 pm
States Move to GOP in 2011
Posted by: dan | February 8, 2012, 7:17 pm 7:17 pm
Not Virginia anymore and lots of others in the midst of following suit. Obama’s numbers have been improving steadily and the Republicans numbers sinking further in the past two months. People can see Romney as the snake-oil politician/liar that he is and the rest of them are just as whacky.
Posted by: John | February 8, 2012, 7:36 pm 7:36 pm
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich – Mitt Romney is a liar.
“I think it’s the most blatantly dishonest performance by a presidential candidate I’ve ever seen,” Gingrich said in a telephone interview with the Washington Post Friday, January 27, 2012.
You know it’s bad when even the Republicans are calling their leading candidates liars.
Posted by: Stephen | February 8, 2012, 7:44 pm 7:44 pm
John Not Virginia anymore….That poll posted earlier is so wrong. Virginian Republicans took full control of the state legislature just this November for the first time in quite a while. Republicans are also favored to win another Senate seat this November.
Posted by: justuspofolks | February 8, 2012, 7:45 pm 7:45 pm
Obama is only above 50% approval rating in 10 of 50 states and in the swing states he is below in every single one…….Gallup
Posted by: gary | February 8, 2012, 7:47 pm 7:47 pm
John The repubs in Virginia just took full control of the state legislature this fall. So I don’t think so
Posted by: Terry | February 8, 2012, 7:48 pm 7:48 pm
STEPHEN | FEBRUARY 8, 2012, —Nice spam no matter what name you post under. Its Newt being Newt…..what do you expect?
Posted by: darla | February 8, 2012, 7:52 pm 7:52 pm
Nice spam no matter what name you post under. Its Newt being Newt…..what do you expect?
Posted by: darla | February 8, 2012, 7:52 pm 7:52 pm
Oh, just Newt heh? How about Santorum?
“This is the kind of outright lies and the hypocrisy that Gov. Romney is engaged in, not just with Newt Gingrich now but with anybody who stands in his way. You can get away with it, obviously, if you’ve got millions of dollars to spend and you go out there lying and people don’t hold you accountable. Well, we are.” Rick Santorum Jan. 16, 2012
Posted by: Stephen | February 8, 2012, 8:20 pm 8:20 pm
If Romney is nominated, all the Democrats will have to do is run ads playing back his fellow Republicans calling him a liar and a hypocrite, and the game is over. That’s the one thing the Republican candidates agree on.
Posted by: Stephen | February 8, 2012, 8:30 pm 8:30 pm
February 8, 2012, 7:08 pm 7:08 pm
Intrade is more reliable than Gallup, and actually the numbers are even better for Obama now than they were a few weeks ago as in Obama .60.7 %. Mitt down to 30.3.
For the trendline, on 1/29/2012 Intrade Obama 54.9 Romney 38.6 on 2/4/2012 Intrade Obama 57 Romney 38.6, on 2/6/2012 Intrade Obama 58 Romney 36.
Posted by: J-bone | February 9, 2012, 3:39 am 3:39 am
wow.
Posted by: chris | February 9, 2012, 12:58 pm 12:58 pm
Dan, what polls are you quoting, the latest is that more democrats have left the party and the republicans have increased. Sounds good when you reverse the numbers.
Posted by: Lizzie | February 9, 2012, 2:20 pm 2:20 pm