Amy Walter’s Gut Check, Twins in Romney World, Exactly How Much Economic Recovery Does Obama Need? (PM Note)

May 4, 2012 6:31pm

TWINS – Congrats to Tagg on kids 5 and 6 and Mitt and Ann Romney on grandkids 17 and 18 – Tagg and wife welcome twins via surrogate – http://abcn.ws/IPtftI

Amy Walter says this: My latest estimates based on polling, conversations with political insiders, and gut.

Obama: 247

Romney: 191

Undecided: 100

Eight Undecided (Toss-up) States: OH, CO, NV, IA, NH, FL, NC, VA

Best opportunities for Romney: NC, IA

Best opportunities for Obama: NH, CO

Bottom line: Obama has lots of different paths to 270, while Romney has a narrow one.

Also – It was a “buy” week for Pawlenty, a “sell” week for Rubio, and maybe a very bad week coming up for Dick Lugar - http://abcn.ws/IQOilK

Jake Tapper Will Host This Week Sunday with David Axelrod and John McCain.

You can bet they’ll talk about this…

1. Obama was talking Student Loans in Arlington – http://abcn.ws/IzH2Kf

2. Biden was talking women’s issues at the YWCA – http://abcn.ws/IBTR5G

3. Is there a disconnect between the White House spending so much time on student loans when there is such tepid Job Growth, Minimal Unemployment Drop – http://abcn.ws/IRfwZH

How Much Economic Recovery Does Obama Need? – Case Studies – Obama’s economy vs. Clinton’s economy vs. Reagan’s economy vs. Ford’s economy.

If the current economy stagnates between now and November, Obama will face essentially the same unemployment picture Ford did-except with a rate that’s higher by a few tenths of a percentage point. None of these examples match Obama’s political or economic circumstances too precisely, and the unemployment rate isn’t everything. BUT… http://abcn.ws/IR0KSL

What Happened in Romney / Santorum Detente? – More Ice Breaker than Policy Parlay, per Shush Walshe -  http://abcn.ws/IMANRt

Half Court Press – It was an amazing half court shot video and the school kids watching erupted in applause for when Downtown Scotty Brown sank it from half court. They cut out the earlier attempts, according to the Boston Globe’s Glenn Johnson  -http://abcn.ws/IMDC4Y

Will George Bush Return? – Joel Siegel takes a good and measured look at whether we’ll ever see Bush back on the campaign trail – “And while the former president is expected to formally support Romney at some point between now and Election Day — perhaps in a written statement — many Republicans doubt he will actively campaign for the party’s ticket this fall.

His withdrawal from the political stage stands in contrast to his predecessor, former President Bill Clinton, who has plunged into campaigns large and small since leaving office, even a race for a state Senate seat in Buffalo, N.Y. At a similar point in his post-presidency, Clinton tried to sway the 2004 presidential race, appearing — just weeks after undergoing heart surgery — arm-in-arm with the Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry, at a late-October rally before 100,000 people in Center City, Philadelphia.” http://abcn.ws/J2hZwu

Buckeye Blitz - Romney Allies Will “Bracket” Obama Rallies This Weekend – http://abcn.ws/J2hYsF

Top Worst Romney’s Endorsements – From Newt, who said Romney lied shortly after endorsing him to Huntsman, who attacked his China Policy -  http://abcn.ws/IKbYso

Indiana Cash Flow – Why GOP and Tea Party groups are pouring cash into the Lugar / Mourdock race – http://abcn.ws/IBTOGU

The Question that Remains – Did Elizabeth Warren’s Career Actually Benefit From Cherokee Association? – http://abcn.ws/Kn65Bv

Bobby Jindal in New Jersey – And How Education Reform could be bipartisan -http://abcn.ws/K7GFVN

Wiretaps are Way Uphttp://abcn.ws/JkbKU5

SHOWS:
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