By MICHAEL FALCONE ( @michaelpfalcone )

NOTABLES

• TUNE IN TONIGHT: ABC's GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS moderates the final New Hampshire U.S. Senate debate between Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and her GOP opponent, Scott Brown. With just five days to go, polls are tight and both need to seriously wound the other or at least shine in one moment or more, ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE notes. There are still undecided voters out there in the Granite State, not many, but it's likely they will be tuning to make their final decision and it's those voters Shaheen and Brown need to convince. The New Hampshire Institute of Politics and Political Library at Saint Anselm College will host the debate sponsored by WMUR-TV and the New Hampshire Union Leader. WMUR Political Director Josh McElveen will co-moderate with Stephanopoulos. Beginning at 7 p.m. Eastern, the debate will air live on WMUR-TV and will stream live here: http://abcnews.go.com/live

• WHAT THEY WILL SAY: More than 40 percent of New Hampshire voters are independent or undeclared so you're likely to hear both candidates again stress how they will be independent voices for the state while their opponents try to tie them either to the president for Shaheen or the right wing of the GOP for Brown. But this close out, it's unclear how much those attacks are still sticking. Voters have likely heard all the mudslinging already and tonight really want answers.

• WHY THE GOP IS CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTION DAY 2014: Republicans enter the final stretch before Election Day with a cautious air of confidence. They believe more than six seats needed to win the Senate are within their grasp. But they still aren't sure, exactly, just which six they may win. Even at this late stage of the campaign, the GOP believes it has only three races in the bag: Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. A half-dozen others remain stubbornly too-close-to-call. ABC's JEFF ZELENY reports that despite a difficult environment for Democrats, the 2014 campaign does not yet feel like a wave election for Republicans. STATE-BY-STATE WITH ZELENY: http://abcn.ws/1E2a92m

• 5 CRAZY ELECTION 2014 SCENARIOS THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPEN. You think Nov. 4 is the end of the election season? That you can go to bed election night and wake up knowing who controls the Senate? Think again. There's virtually no chance that all the close Senate races will be settled on Election Day itself. From runoffs to recounts, wild-card independents to wild-salmon fishermen mailing ballots in Alaska, there are multiple scenarios that will leave us up all night - and then some. ABC's RICK KLEIN and JEFF ZELENY look at five scenarios that might happen this Tuesday. http://abcn.ws/1001n5L

ANALYSIS

ABC's RICK KLEIN: About Obama's America… A pair of new polls suggest a collapse in the Democratic Party's support among two key constituencies: young voters and Latinos. A Harvard University Institute of Politics poll finds that a majority of 18-29-year-old likely voters say they would rather see a Republican-controlled Congress than a Democratic one. http://abcn.ws/1012KkQ And the Pew Research Center found Latino voters' support for Democrats softening, down eight points from the eve of the 2010 election - hardly a high-water mark for the party. http://fus.in/1tkyzRs In the short term, this means Democrats are unlikely to be able to rely on the so-called "Obama surge" voters that turned out in 2008 and 2012; the likeliest impact will be Democratic-leaning voters staying home. In the longer term, these numbers scramble demographic assumptions about political ideology in intriguing ways. Make that tantalizing ways for Republicans, who could suddenly find themselves playing for voters who were assumed to be aligning with Democrats for the foreseeable future.

THE MIDTERM MINUTE

-OREGON: FIVE DAYS, MORE ADS. The American Future Fund, the conservative super pac, is out with three new ads this morning in Georgia's 12th district, Michigan's 6th district, but also in the Oregon Senate race where Sen. Jeff Merkley is battling it out against his GOP challenger Monica Wehby. This race is no longer on most radars as we are closely watching the top and tight 11 and it is rated "Likely Democrat" by ABC News, but AFF is pouring $200,000 in the spot going after Merkley. The ad attacks him for not doing enough in Washington with a narrator asking the viewer, "Can you think of one think of one thing he's accomplished?" It doesn't mention Wehby, but says at the end "Jeff Merkley's time is up." Watch: http://bit.ly/1sJV5Oc - Shushannah Walshe

-WISCONSIN: WALKER PULLING AWAY FROM BURKE. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has gained a little ground over the past two weeks on Democratic challenger Mary Burke, putting the potential 2016 presidential candidate on track to win his third bid for governor in just four years. While a poll conducted earlier this month showed the race at a dead heat, new data released Wednesday by the Marquette Law School now shows Walker with 50 percent of likely voters compared to only 43 percent for Burke. Among registered voters, however, the survey still shows a tight race with Walker winning 46 percent of the vote and Burke garnering 45 percent - essentially a statistical tie within the poll's margin of error. Walker will continue his bus tour campaign through the Green Bay area today, while Burke plans to make a campaign swing through southeastern Wisconsin. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

-FLORIDA: CRIST INCHES AHEAD. Florida's gubernatorial race-one of the country's nastiest-is still extremely tight, but former Republican governor now Democratic candidate Charlie Crist has inched ahead slightly according to a new Quinnipiac poll out this morning. He leads incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Scott 43 percent to 40 percent and libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie has eight percent while nine percent of voters are still undecided. Last week the two were deadlocked at 42 percent. Crist seems to have made some inroads with independent voters and leads with those voters by a significant 47 to 29 percent. Among early voting it's still very tight with Crist at 40 percent and Scott at 39. Only 10 percent of Florida voters say they could change their mind at this point and as for favorability in this race where the two candidates seem so disliked throughout out the campaign, voters now give Crist a split 45 percent favorability. Scott is underwater at 41 to 46 percent. http://bit.ly/103lDUb - Shushannah Walshe

-NORTH CAROLINA: MAKE THE ADS STOP: One North Carolina resident is fed up with the Senate race's negative advertising, even if she can't vote. Eight-year-old Raleigh third grader Carson Park wrote a letter to Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis asking why their ads "say mean things about each other." "You don't know what they're really like," Park told Raleigh's ABC 11. More than half of the spending in the Senate race has gone to television ads, according to the Center for Public Integrity. On Wednesday, spending in the race hit the $100 million mark, according to the Sunlight Foundation. http://abc11.tv/105BLnM - Ben Siegel

-COLORADO: A PRO-LIFE CONDOM SHORTAGE? That's the claim in a new radio ad from pro-choice group NARAL. The spot continues Democrats' attacks against Republican Rep. Cory Gardner on women's health by suggesting his support for personhood bills would outlaw contraceptives. "Now, it's all on us guys," says the man in the ad to his girlfriend. "You can't find a condom anywhere … sweet pea, Cory denies science." Gardner, who leads Sen. Mark Udall in the Colorado Senate race, said he stopped supporting personhood amendments because they would limit contraceptive access. Democrats claim a federal personhood bill Gardner co-sponsored would do the same. http://bit.ly/1Dtl3Mg - Ben Siegel

-COLORADO: BAD NEWS FOR UDALL. A new Quinnipiac poll out this morning is spelling some bad news for Sen. Mark Udall in one of the most closely watched races this cycle, battling it out against his GOP challenger Rep. Cory Gardner. The survey shows Gardner leading Udall by seven points 46 to 39 percent, with seven percent for independent candidate Steve Shogan and another seven percent still undecided. This gap is slightly wider than their poll last week that showed Gardner leading by five points. There is also a significant gender gap in this race, but it benefits Gardner more. He is leading with men 51 to 38 percent and women back the Democratic incumbent 45 to 39 percent. Only 10 percent of Colorado likely voters could still change their mind according to the poll, enough to make up the difference, but not much time to convince them. http://bit.ly/1sJYjBr

-IOWA: OH DEER, ERNST BUS HITS A BUMP ON THE TRAIL. Joni Ernst's campaign may have skyrocketed into infamy thanks to few hogs, but late Thursday night a deer brought her to a halt. "Reports are true. RV did hit a deer. No one injured. Campaign will continue on," Ernst's campaign account tweeted shortly after the collision, followed by a tweet from Ernst herself assuring the public that everyone on the bus was safe. Senator John McCain was campaigning with the Iowa Senate hopeful on Thursday and was among those onboard when the RV hit a deer just miles away from the final campaign stop of the midterm season. - Alisa Wiersema

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

CHRIS CHRISTIE TELLS HECKLER TO 'SIT DOWN AND SHUT UP'. This is why some people love him … and some people hate him. N.J. Gov. Chris Christie, appearing along the Jersey Shore to mark the second anniversary of Superstorm Sandy yesterday, got heckled by a local activist and former councilman. So Christie did what he does - fire back, ABC's JOSH MARGOLIN and SHUSHANNAH WALSHE report. "I'm glad you had your day to show off, but we're the ones who are here to actually do the work," Christie said from behind an official podium placed in a Belmar, N.J., intersection. "So turn around, get your 15 minutes of fame and then maybe take your jacket off, roll up your sleeves and maybe do something for the people of this state." Christie summed up: "So listen, you want to have the conversation later, I'm happy to have it, buddy. But until that time, sit down and shut up." WATCH: http://abcn.ws/1u8KzHN

THE BUZZ

with ABC's KIRSTEN APPLETON

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS WALK BACK 'CHICKENS***' COMMENT ABOUT NETANYAHU. A day after an unnamed Obama administration official was quoted calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "chickens***," administration spokespeople said that they were just as surprised as Netanyahu was to read the comment. ABC's ALI WEINBERG and MARY BRUCE report Obama spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters that the comment, published by Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic, was "counterproductive" and "inappropriate," and that he would be surprised if President Obama knew who said it to Goldberg. At the State Department, spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Secretary of State John Kerry believed it wasn't productive for either side to lob insults at the others, alluding to comments from Israelis in recent days criticizing Kerry for seemingly linking the rise of ISIS to Muslim frustration over the lack of progress between Israelis and Palestinians over peace talks. http://abcn.ws/1wFVSE7

OBAMA USES HUGS AND KISSES TO EASE EBOLA FEARS. President Obama is trying to lead by example as he works to calm public fears about Ebola in the U.S. ABC's DEVIN DWYER and MARY BRUCE note that Obama has come into contact with more American Ebola patients, and the doctors and nurses who treated them, than just about any other American. For weeks, the president has repeatedly assured the American people that the risks of a widespread outbreak are "very, very low." To hammer home the point, the president has gone beyond words, to hugs, kisses, and hand-shakes. http://abcn.ws/103EPRo

MAJORITY OF MILLENIALS TURN ON OBAMA, FAVOR A GOP-LED CONGRESS. Many Democrats who are fighting to win re-election next week were swept into office with President Obama in 2008, with the help of millennial voters. Now, more than half of likely 18-29 year-old voters want a Republican-led Congress, according to a new poll from the Harvard University Institute of Politics. ABC's BEN SIEGEL reports it's a marked shift for the youngest and largest generation of voters, who have supported Democrats reliably since 2004. Millennials who said they will "definitely be voting" favor a Republican-led Congress 51-47 percent, according to the poll. http://abcn.ws/1012KkQ

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

SARAH PALIN PROMISES TO 'BUG THE CRAP' OUT OF HER 'HATERS.' Sarah Palin isn't driven away by her haters. ABC's KIRSTEN APPLETON reports that she's actually motivated by them. In an interview on Tuesday with Fox Business Network, the former Alaska governor and vice presidential nominee said that "those haters out there" have not driven her away from politics. "It wants me to get out there and defend the innocent," Palin said "The more they're pouring on the more I'm going to bug the crap out of them by being out there with a voice, with the message, hopefully running for office in the future too." http://abcn.ws/ZZTI7w

WHO'S TWEETING?

@rickklein: can Dems hold Senate? "rosiest scenario is you're looking at a 50-50 proposition," Mitch Stewart says. http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/power-players-abc-news/whither-obama-s-army-obama-s-field-general-mitch-stewart-sees-even-odds-to-hold-senate-111313665.html … #TopLine

@donnabrazile: Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and others can run for Mr Obama's job in 2016. But until then, let #POTUS finish.

@CarlCannon: Ben Bradlee funeral captured perfectly in superb column by @Milbank. Here's Dana's piece: http://wapo.st/1FYMd1J

@GeraldFSeib: Very good GDP growth number this morning: 3.5%. Kinda late to affect mid-terms much, though. http://on.wsj.com/13jMKfG

@mviser: Who'd you rather have a coffee with? Massachusetts gubernatorial candidates and their coffee routines #MyMorningCup http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/food-dining/2014/10/30/massachusetts-gubernatorial-candidates/R1hijRBISV3w32epxN8pmI/story.html …