Election Day 2014 Is Here!
By MICHAEL FALCONE ( @michaelpfalcone )
NOTABLES
- A SUPER DUPER EASY VIEWER'S GUIDE TO THE BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Tonight's main event is the battle for control the United States Senate. ABC's RICK KLEIN has put together a quick way to understand the stakes and the trends that will develop over the course of the night - and maybe beyond - to determine which party will hold control. ABC News is working off a list of 16 states (out of 36 total Senate seats on the ballot) that we see potentially swinging to a different party (starting with the earliest poll closings and finishing with the latest): Virginia, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, South Dakota, Iowa, Montana and Arkansas. Of the states on that list, 13 are held by Democrats now and only Georgia, Kentucky, and Kansas are currently held by Republicans. Here are five things to keep in mind as you get ready to watch tonight's returns: http://abcn.ws/1sbDI9X
- TUNE IN TONIGHT: ABC's on-air coverage of Election Night 2014 begins at 6:30 p.m. Eastern with a special edition of "World News Tonight With David Muir." Then, starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, tune into ABC's election night livestream at http://abcnews.go.com/live ABC News Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos along with Nightline anchor Dan Harris will lead live coverage until 2 a.m. Eastern, with analysis from ABC's Diane Sawyer, Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl, Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz, Fusion's Alicia Menendez. Plus look out for live reports from the ground in key battleground states from ABC's Jeff Zeleny, Ron Claiborne, Cecilia Vega, Tom Llamas and Linsey Davis. At 10: 00 p.m. Eastern our Midterm Election special report, "Your Voice, Your Vote" will air on television and online at: http://abcnews.go.com/live Look for live election results on ABCNews.com and our political team will be live blogging the election starting later this morning: http://abcnews.go.com/politics
- TAKE A TOUR OF THE KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES with ABC's JONATHAN KARL: http://abcn.ws/1AavQyC
- BEYOND THE MIDTERMS: WHO'D BE GOOD IN 2016? Looking beyond today's midterms to the big event in 2016, half of registered voters in an ABC News-Washington Post poll say Hillary Clinton would make a good president, far more than say the same about some of her potential Republican rivals, ABC's GREG HOLYK notes. Then again, they're far less well known - and Clinton's got difficulties of her own. For one, at 50 percent, views that Clinton has the makings of a good president fall short of a majority, much less a comfortable one. Another is that 43 percent don't think she would make a good president, a negative not to dismiss. The rest, enough to tip the scale, are undecided. But those realities don't make things any easier for four possible GOP candidates tested in this survey. Fifty-two percent think Jeb Bush would not make a good president, as do 49 percent when it comes to Rick Perry, 48 percent for Chris Christie and 45 percent for Rand Paul. http://abcn.ws/1upGPl5
- FOLLOW OUR SNAPCHAT (ABC_NEWS). Just in time for Election Day, ABC News has launched a Snapchat account. Follow us for a behind-the-scenes look at ABC News live election coverage.
THE ROUNDTABLE
ABC's JEFF ZELENY: If Republicans win control of the Senate tonight - or in the days or months to come, given the prospect of runoffs or recounts - it can be attributed to one thing above all: A concerted decision by the party establishment to flex its muscle in primaries. It was a controversial move, particularly when Steven Law at American Crossroads said a candidate like Steve King in Iowa was unacceptable and unelectable. But after back-to-back elections that ended with embarrassing GOP gaffes, this new air of discipline and tenacity guided Republicans to where they are today: on the cusp of seizing the Senate majority. When we caught up with Mitch McConnell yesterday in Lexington, he smiled as he told us: "We've learned a couple lessons over the last two cycles. If you don't nominate really credible candidates you have a chance of not even taking advantage of a good year, and this could be a good year."
ABC's RICK KLEIN: If there's anything to rejoice over at the end of this campaign - a campaign that was at times about nothing, other times about everything, and was impossible to avoid if you live in a state with a hot or even warm race - it's that it remains truly close at the finish line. As many as two dozen statewide races go into Election Day without a clear winner; it's still possible more Republican governors lose than do Democratic senators. There's a larger point in this that winning (and losing) parties should remember, but will probably forget: This is a divided country that is shifting allegiances but not conveying loyalties. Mandates will not exist, and probably can't exist for a while in this kind of environment. That means it's particularly easy to over-read messages being sent by the voters - which then lengthens this extraordinary period of wild back-and-forths. If you're a student of the game, it sure can be a frustrating one to figure out. But enjoy the ride.
ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: Election Day, it's finally here. No more counting down and soon no more attack ads, no more fundraising e mails, no more mailers, and calls although it's very possible if you live in Louisiana or Georgia those could continue…and increase. Today, Americans get to exercise their right to vote, so what should we be watching for? North Carolina and New Hampshire, where polls close at 7:30pm and 8pm respectively is where we may get an early look at the rest of the night. If both go to the Republican candidates, the Democrats could be in for quite a terrible night and although each race is quite local and so many are razor tight it looks like those states are the tell-tale signs of possibly losing the Senate. On the other hand, this fight could go on not just all night since Alaska's polls don't close until 1AM eastern, but until January when Georgia's run-off is held (Louisiana's is next month). Both states require their candidates to get to that 50 percent mark and with 3 candidates in each race no one may cross that threshold. There's no way to tell right now, but watching the N states early in the night might be able to tell us if we'll be up all night or if the GOP will have an early…and successful night.
THE MIDTERM MINUTE
LOUISIANA: STOPPING TRAFFIC. Longshot Louisiana Senate candidate Rob Maness was pulled over by police yesterday. But it wasn't for a traffic violation. According to the Maness campaign, the tea party candidate was pulled over by Mer Rouge Police Chief Mitch Stephens, who wanted to express his support in advance of today's election. "Chief Stephens had been waiting all day hoping to have the opportunity to 'catch' Maness, shake his hand and tell him that he had planned to vote for Congressman Bill Cassidy until he heard Maness's in-studio interview on Oak Grove's KWCL-FM Oldies 96.7 with Irene Robinson," the campaign said in an email. And for Maness, the police pull-over was one for his record: "There aren't too many times you come out of a traffic stop with a smile on your face, but this was the exception. It's moments like these that have made this campaign so rewarding." Maness has spent the final days before Election Day driving across the state in his pickup truck, which he has driven through all 64 of the state's parishes over the course of his campaign. - Jordyn Phelps
ARIZONA: MARTHA MCSALLY REVERSES COURSE ON ELECTION NIGHT PARTY. On the eve of Election Day, Republican candidate Martha McSally's Arizona Congressional campaign announced media would be ousted from the GOP election night party she offered to host at two crucial points in the night: 8pm-9pm, when the early ballot count is typically announced; and at 10:30pm, when enough ballots are counted to start calling results. On both occasions reporters were told they would be ushered out of the main ballroom and into a secondary reception room. As news of the ban spread, the McSally campaign quickly responded by backing down from their initial plan. "Our Election Night Victory Party is open to media and supporters alike," McSally campaign spokesman Patrick Ptak wrote. "This is in consideration of media needs and other candidates at the party." McSally is facing a tight race with incumbent Democrat Rep. Ron Barber in the state's 2nd Congressional district. - Ali Dukakis
THE BUZZ
with ABC's KIRSTEN APPLETON
MITCH MCCONNELL'S VISION FOR A GOP SENATE DOESN'T FOCUS ON OBAMA PROBES. Sen. Mitch McConnell told ABC News that Republicans would not make investigating the Obama administration a priority if the GOP wins control of the Senate, ABC's JEFF ZELENY reports. "Obviously, we intend to be a responsible governing Republican majority, if the American people give us the chance to do that," McConnell said in a brief interview as he flew around Kentucky on the eve of the midterm elections. McConnell was dismissive of calls from Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and other Republicans to open Congressional hearings next year into the executive actions of the Obama administration. "We're gonna do a combination of pointing out the things that we disagree on and the things we can possibly agree on," McConnell said. "And be a responsible governing Republican majority." http://abcn.ws/1vCBotH
ALL QUIET IN THE WEST WING: President Obama spends Election Day at the White House, with no public events on his schedule.
CONTROVERSIAL BALLOT ISSUES OF 2014 INCLUDE POT, PERSONHOOD AND GUN CONTROL. Controversial and emotional issues are on ballots in states and the outcome of those votes - ranging from "personhood" for the unborn, pot laws and gun control - could have significant ramifications. ABC'S ALI WEINBERG takes a look at some of the top ballot measures this Election Day. http://abcn.ws/1vCT5tf
MEET THE BRAINS BEHIND THREE OF THE MOST MEMORABLE GOP ADS OF ELECTION 2014. The 2014 midterm elections produced a blizzard of political ads, but a precious few have broken through in a big way - shaking up key races and attracting national attention. ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE, BEN SIEGEL and NOAH WEILAND spoke to three of the ad makers who masterminded the most talked about campaign commercials of this election cycle. http://abcn.ws/1wYa1Qy
COLUMN: DONNA BRAZILE'S 'WILLIES' AWARDS FOR BEST AND WORST POLITICAL ADS. http://abcn.ws/1A7k6gc
CAMPAIGN FINANCE: WHY THESE ARE THE MOST EXPENSIVE MIDTERM ELECTIONS EVER. This year's elections are expected to be the costliest midterm elections ever due in large part to the massive increase in unfettered spending, much of it called "dark money," made possible by a 2010 Supreme Court ruling. The bottom line for this year's races is going to come down to $3.67 billion, which the Center for Responsive Politics reports is the most expensive midterm campaign ever. But experts believe it's the way in which the costs were increased that is more important than the total number, ABC's MEGHAN KENEALLY reports. http://abcn.ws/1wsBQiB
-CHART: HOW A CAMPAIGN BLOWS THROUGH MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN ONE YEAR. Senate campaigns aren't required report their spending by Election Day-they submit spending reports to the Federal Election Commission on paper. But Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, has been filing his disclosures electronically since October 2013, giving us a window into how Senate campaigns are spending their millions of dollars these days. ABC's CHRIS GOOD breaks down where $7.3 million went in one year. http://abcn.ws/1ph77nL
-HOW NORTH CAROLINA BECAME THE MOST EXPENSIVE SENATE RACE OF 2014. North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan is sitting on the most expensive hot seat in Senate history. Spending in her Senate race against Republican State House Speaker Thom Tillis topped $100 million, according to the Sunlight Foundation-$10 million more than the second most expensive Senate contest this year in Colorado, and roughly $30 million more than the priciest Congressional race in history before 2014. ABC's BEN SIEGEL reports that expensive media markets, early spending and swing state status have propelled the record-setting spending. http://abcn.ws/10Oh9BV
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING
COLLEGE REPUBLICANS TAKE THEIR MESSAGE (AND PIZZA) TO FRAT PARTIES: The College Republicans are pushing a softer message ahead for today's midterm elections trying to re-brand the party by bringing the party. http://fus.in/1xU0SFq
WHO'S TWEETING?
@CookPolitical: Republicans appear poised for a good Election Night-but just how well will they fare? Charlie's take: http://www.nationaljournal.com//off-to-the-races/how-big-a-night-will-it-be-for-the-gop-20141103?ref=off_to_the_races …
@ByronYork: Going into these midterms, GOP haunted by memories of O'Donnell, Akin, Angle, Mourdock… http://ow.ly/DNjSL
@JohnJHarwood: as everyone piles on Obama, remember who else got hammered in mid-term elections: FDR, Truman, Ike, LBJ, Reagan, Clinton, GWB. #history
@TheFix: The Fix's 2014 Election Day music playlist is here! Give it a listen. http://wapo.st/1xXnMf2
?@thegarance: So #VoterSelfie is a thing now.