2016 Presidential Race: Where Things Stand

(Lisa Lake/Getty Images)

So, now that the midterm elections are over - in case you missed it, the GOP did pretty well - we can now focus on the 2016 presidential race. Get excited! For the latest on the 2016 presidential race, we turn to ABC News' deputy political director Shushannah Walshe.

1] So the big news this week is that Jeb Bush is going to explore the possibility of running for president. How is that different from actually running for president? It's kind of confusing.

It is a bit confusing and it really is likely just a step before a step before an announcement. Usually candidates announce they will form an exploratory committee first, that is the traditional first step before a full-blown campaign. Instead, the former Florida governor announced essentially he's thinking about it, saying in a statement he would "actively explore the possibility of running for president of the United States" and will set up a political action committee next month. He said the PAC will help him "facilitate conversations with citizens across America to discuss the most critical challenges facing our exceptional nation."

It's a step before an exploratory committee, although it's possible he would even skip that step since he's already admitting to exploring the possibility. In 2008, then-Sen. Obama had only three weeks between his exploratory move and announcing his campaign, but that tends to be unusual.

An aide cautions that Bush has "not made a final decision on whether he will run," but it would seem unlikely he would reverse course. But there are differences between an exploratory committee or what is called "testing the waters" before launching a full-fledged campaign. It's really seen as just a coy move and there are different campaign finance laws between the two entities, but usually when you hear the words "exploratory committee" you can expect an actual presidential campaign … at some point.

Up to now, the only candidate even at that stage is former Democratic Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, who announced an exploratory committee last month. There are different finance laws between an exploratory committee and an actual campaign. The Federal Election Commission says an exploratory committee is "not considered a political committee and does not have to register or file reports as long as its activities are limited to testing the waters and it does not engage in campaigning," which means candidates don't need to report donations until they are an actual presidential contender.

Yes, it's fuzzy. The FEC categorizes a candidate as no longer "testing the waters" when a person makes several moves, including if they "make or authorize statements referring to him/herself as a candidate." But remember Bush isn't even at this stage yet.

2] So, what happens next? When can we expect more people to formally express interest in running for president? Is it still early?

It is still early! We think, "Hey, the 2014 midterm elections are over. Let's get to 2016," but it is still only 2014. In the 2008 race, Hillary Clinton announced her exploratory committee in January 2007, but not her official campaign until September of that year. Barack Obama announced in January 2007 and as mentioned above, his official campaign just three weeks later in February.

In the 2012 cycle, Mitt Romney announced his exploratory committee in April 2011, followed by his official campaign in June of that year , but he already had run once and felt he could enter later because of broader name recognition. So, by early next year we will likely see some candidates get in the race, but the contenders with higher name recognition can stay out longer.

Of course, once you are in you open yourself up to much more scrutiny, so for some candidates (like Hillary Clinton) they may be thinking, "Hey what's the rush?" And as of now, Clinton also doesn't have a possible Democratic star nipping at her heels, like she did with Obama in 2007. Even with Jeb Bush admitting what no one else is willing to acknowledge yet - he's thinking about it - he will face much more scrutiny, but he also has the advantage now of trying to lock in high-dollar donors before they go to another campaign or potential campaign. On the Republican side, that's important because it will be quite a large field (keep reading for more on that).

3] There's been some reporting that former Gov. Mitt Romney seems more open to the idea of running again for the highest office in the land? What do you make of that?

A Politico article last week said the 2012 GOP nominee is more open to the idea of another run, and Romney consistently comes in first in GOP polls he's included in. But that's likely due, in large part, to name recognition. I think it's very unlikely in 2016 that a candidate that lost twice - one time as the party's nominee - would actually run again, even if he is more open to the idea now, and had financial and voter support, especially when there will be a wide Republican field.

And now with Jeb Bush likely in, much of the establishment GOP donor and voter appetite could go to Bush over Romney. And I can tell you what Ann Romney told me in October about the 2016 talk. After two bruising campaigns she simply said "No," saying she has "moved on."

"We're not doing that again. It's a no," she said, adding that when friends, family and former aides urge them to give it one more go, she says it's "kind of cute." I would trust that the answer will remain a no, but of course stranger things have happened.

5 Ways Jeb Bush's 2016 Announcement Will Shift the Presidential Landscape

Jeb Bush Will 'Actively Explore the Possibility of Running for President

4] What's going on with Hillary Clinton? When is she going to decide on a run?

Well, deciding and announcing are two very different things. But, the former secretary of state told ABC News' Diane Sawyer in June, "I will be on the way to making a decision by the end of the year, yes." More recently she has slid that decision timetable to the beginning of next year saying she will decide after the first of the year. A Washington Post article last week said a spring announcement is likely and we do know she has paid speeches through March, but the bottom line is we don't know. We don't know when she will decide and we don't know when she could announce, but it's looking more and more likely it will be later than the last time around.

5] So, break it down for us. Who should we be watching most carefully as we edge toward 2016? Who are the players to watch? What's next?

There are so many possible 2016 candidates out there, especially on the GOP side. On the Democratic side, all eyes are on Hillary Clinton, but others making moves are Webb, as we said, and also Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, who has spent eight days each in Iowa and New Hampshire since 2012, according to an ABC News early visit tracker.

There's also Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, technically an Independent, who was back in Iowa this week and has also spent eight days in the first caucus state. Progressive groups MoveOn and Democracy for America this week launched their draft effort to encourage Massachusetts senator and liberal favorite Elizabeth Warren to get into the race. She's said repeatedly she's not running, but her supporters are hoping to change her mind. And how about Vice President Joe Biden? He hasn't ruled it out either.

On the GOP side, there is a long list of potential candidates to watch. Let's break them in to groups. The governors: Chris Christie of New Jersey, Mike Pence of Indiana, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

The Senators: Marco Rubio of Florida, Ted Cruz of Texas, and Rand Paul of Kentucky.

The 2008 and 2012ers who could run again: Former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, Texas governor and former 2012 candidate Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania senator and 2012 presidential candidate Rick Santorum, former GOP vice-presidential candidate Rep. Paul Ryan, and of course eyes are still on Mitt Romney, as we mention above.

Ben Carson says he'll decide on a WH run by May 1st.

A video posted by benlbell (@benlbell) on Nov 11, 2014 at 9:28am PST

"This Week" brings you all the latest news on 2016 Sunday.