By MICHAEL FALCONE ( @michaelpfalcone )

NOTABLES

• EXCLUSIVE - AMERICAN ALAN GROSS RELEASED FROM CUBA AFTER FIVE YEARS: Held for five years in Cuba, 65-year-old American contractor Alan Gross has been released from prison and is en route to U.S. soil, ABC's JIM AVILA and SERENA MARSHALLreport. In a landmark humanitarian prisoner exchange to be announced by President Obama shortly at the White House, the agreement was reached following more than a year of secret back channel talks at the highest levels of both governments. Today's release of Gross, who is said to be in poor physical condition, represents a first step toward normalizing relations with the neighbor just 90-miles off the Florida coast. Gross was convicted of espionage by a Cuban court in 2011 and sentenced to 15 years for bringing telecommunication devices into Cuba while working as a subcontractor for United State Agency for International Development. The Cuban government accused him of being party to a U.S.-led plot to overthrow the government through an "Arab spring." http://abcn.ws/1Abmv7t

• JUST THE BEGINNING:The humanitarian release is just the beginning of a promised new relationship with Cuba. The White House is indicating the beginning of new talks on everything from travel restrictions to eventual lifting of the Cuban embargo in place since John F. Kennedy was President. In an interview last week with Jorge Ramos for Fusion - a sister network to ABC News - President Obama said: "We've been in conversations about how we can get Alan Gross home for quite some time." http://abcn.ws/1Abmv7t

• PRIMER - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ALAN GROSS: How he got to Cuba, why he was arrested, what happened during his incarceration and what his health is like. Everything you need to know about Gross from ABC's ERIN DOOLEY. http://abcn.ws/13xJyNO

• SEE YA TRIA: The Senate adjourned for the year late last night, but there was one item on the Senate's agenda left unaddressed: the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, which expires at the end of the month, ABC's ARLETTE SAENZ reports. Set up after the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks, TRIA, was established to help American businesses with insurance coverage in the case of a terrorist attack. Some have speculated that the Super Bowl may not be played if TRIA expires, though the NFL has insisted it will be played regardless. The Senate was unable to come to an agreement on the TRIA legislation this week. Over the summer, the Senate passed a seven year extension of TRIA. Last week, the House passed a measure that would extend TRIA for six years and would roll back limits placed on Wall Street bank provisions. Democrats, like Sen. Chuck Schumer, opposed the changes to the Dodd-Frank legislation in the House bill on TRIA. But ultimately it was objections from Sen. Tom Coburn that sank the bill. Senate Democrats attempted to place the House's TRIA program on the calendar Tuesday night, but Coburn blocked the bill from moving forward.

THE ROUNDTABLE

ABC's RICK KLEIN: Jeb Bush wins the first-out-of-the-gate prize, and with it the frontrunner's target and oppo-researcher magnet. A few lessons to draw from the timing and manner of his surprise Facebook posting, based on conversations with Republican operatives and those inside and outside Bush's camp… First, he's a digital guy, but that doesn't mean he's digital for 2016; his posting didn't seek to capture e-mail addresses or contact information, and he left space open for Rand Paul to advertise against his name on Google. Second, he's more than willing to operate on his own timeframe, in a clear message that he thinks of himself as someone who can set the course of the race, rather than respond to others; one supporter e-mailed, "get used to it." Third, Bush has already gotten to a place where he's comfortable with a run. He's in, now, unless something unexpected happens to or around him, even if the early part of an "active" exploration doesn't look all that active.

ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: It's on, as they say. Yes, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush didn't really announce anything concrete, but just his announcement of "exploring the possibility" of a run started the ball truly rolling on 2016. Up to now plenty of candidates were making moves-both Bernie Sanders and Bobby Jindal were in Iowa just yesterday-but, his announcement somehow pulls the trigger on the starting gun. And Hillary Clinton may still just be running a campaign before a campaign, but last night while strongly condemning torture she may have been trying out some themes we could be seeing on the campaign trail. It was Clinton's first comments since the Senate's torture report was released and she said she was "proud" of being part of the team that eliminated such tactics. Of course, they were used in George W. Bush's administration after the September 11th attacks. Is it possible she could continue to remind people of what the country was like then if she runs against another Bush? Count on it.

ABC's JEFF ZELENY: With a simple tweet from Jeb Bush, the 2016 sweepstakes are now underway. His announcement to "actively explore" a presidential campaign was actually more of a siren to top Republican contributors and boosters that he's serious about running and they should know it before pledging their loyalties to another GOP prospect. But even by jumping in so early, he won't have the luxury his brother had in 1999 of essentially clearing the field and locking down the party. It does allow him a chance to take the incoming shots now, learn the new rapid-fire nature of modern campaign and give Republicans a candidate of unquestionable stature. Yet his walk to the nomination will surely be a rocky one. How he recovers when he undoubtedly stumbles will tell us a lot about the strength of his candidacy.

THE MIDTERM MINUTE

SIX WEEKS LATER, A WINNER IN ARIZONA. More than a month after Election Day, the lone Congressional race left uncalled will finally get a winner today, ABC's ALI DUKAKIS reports. This afternoon an Arizona judge will put to rest the historic nail-biter between Rep. Ron Barber and his two-time Republican challenger Martha McSally after a recount of the state's 2nd Congressional district, once held by former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. The automatic recount was a necessary after an initial count of the nearly 220,000 ballots in the district showed McSally, a former Air Force colonel, ahead by just 161 votes. But the recount didn't stop McSally from declaring victory, nor from getting two impressive Capitol Hill committee assignments last week. Barber was able to best McSally by roughly 2,500 votes in 2012.

THE BUZZ

Jeb Bush Will 'Actively Explore the Possibility of Running for President.' Jeb Bush announced yesterday that he will "actively explore the possibility of running for president of the United States." The former Florida governor, 61, said he made the decision over the Thanksgiving holiday in consultation with his family." As a result of these conversations and thoughtful consideration of the kind of strong leadership I think America needs, I have decided to actively explore the possibility of running for President of the United States," he said in a message posted on Facebook Tuesday. http://abcn.ws/1AC8NZn

5 Ways Jeb Bush's 2016 Announcement Will Shift the Presidential Landscape. Jeb Bush's announcement has shaken up the 2016 landscape, making him not only the first Republican candidate to make such a move, and by far the biggest name, but also sends a clear message to donors to stay put. Here are five ways the former Florida governor's 2016 announcement will shift the presidential landscape, according to ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: http://abcn.ws/1wgCSyF

POLLING NOTE: Work Ahead if Bush Does Run. Jeb Bush has his work cut out for him, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds - but no more than any of the other potential Republican presidential hopefuls for 2016, ABC's GARY LANGER writes. Fourteen percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote support Bush for the GOP presidential nomination. In a matchup assuming that Mitt Romney doesn't run, that puts Bush numerically first, but not by a meaningful margin. Paul Ryan has 11 percent support, Rand Paul 10 percent, and six others have 7 or 8 percent apiece. http://abcn.ws/1GMzsEW

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: Donald Trump Says Jeb Bush is the 'Last Thing We Need.' As Jeb Bush begins to pull together early supporters for his potential presidential campaign, he can go ahead and cross Donald Trump off his list, ABC's JONATHAN KARL and JORDYN PHELPS report. In an interview with ABC News, Trump said the former Republican governor of Florida is the "last thing" the country needs in a presidential candidate. http://abcn.ws/16q7aFc

Hillary Clinton Speaks Out Against U.S. Use of Torture. Hillary Clinton spoke out against the use of torture during a Tuesday speech in New York City, strongly condemning the tactics for the first time since the recent release of a Senate Intelligence Committee report on CIA interrogation methods from a decade ago, ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE reports. "Today we can say again in a loud and clear voice, the United States should never condone or practice torture anywhere in the world," Clinton said. http://abcn.ws/1wXTe0Q

Obamas on Race: We've Been Treated Like the Help. President and Michelle Obama personally identify with everyday experiences of racial bias in America that have underpinned recent protests across the country, they told People magazine in an interview to be released Friday. "Barack Obama was a black man that lived on the South Side of Chicago, who had his share of troubles catching cabs," Michelle Obama told the magazine, according to ABC's DEVIN DWYER. On one occasion, she said, her husband "was wearing a tuxedo at a black-tie dinner, and somebody asked him to get coffee." http://abcn.ws/1vYzJ1d

Barack the Deejay: Obamas Reveal Intimate White House Dance Party. It's played host to royalty, presidential family Christmases, and first lady summits. At one time it served as FDR's personal study , ABC's DEVIN DWYER writes. Now, President Obama says, the Yellow Oval Room in the upstairs residence of the White House has also served as his personal dance floor. http://abcn.ws/1GrLANi

Political Pundits Scolded on Live TV: 'Oh God, It's Mom.' Brad and Dallas Woodhouse, brothers with vastly different political ideologies, appeared to be having a great time bickering on C-SPAN Tuesday, ABC's ERIN DOOLEY reports. That is until one caller - initially identified as "Joy, in Raleigh, North Carolina" - phoned the network, popular among political junkies and Washington insiders, to deliver a particularly humiliating on-air scolding - as only a mother could…. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/1z0oFba

Democratic Allegiance Hits a Low; Can the GOP Seize the Opportunity? The number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats has dropped to a record low in nearly 34 years of ABC News/Washington Post polls, marking the party's challenges after its poor showing in the 2014 midterm elections. The Republican Party, by contrast, has gained sharply in popularity, if not allegiance, ABC's GARY LANGER writes. Just 26 percent of Americans now identify themselves as Democrats, down from 32 percent six weeks ago to the fewest since ABC/Post polling began in 1981. http://abcn.ws/1qZxyir

WHO'S TWEETING?

@jonward11: Vastly changed electoral system presents risks and opportunities for Jeb Bush http://news.yahoo.com/vastly-changed-electoral-system-presents-risks-and-rewards-for-jeb-bush-235324681.html …

@matthewjdowd: reminder folks:last bush to run was 40 points ahead, outraised everyone at least 5 to 1, had every endorsement, &nearly lost the nominnation

?@mattbai: I could do without ever reading the phrase "party coffers" again. Does anyone even know what a coffer is anymore?

@JohnCelock: Mike Huckabee is calling for giving women concealed carry permits to reduce rape. Says less violent crime against women in Texas than in DC

@ruthreichl: Rain gone. Sky washed clean. Sun sparkling off the river. Bagel. Cream cheese. Lox. Raucous NY streets. Heading back to snow.