2016 Is Here To Stay

By MICHAEL FALCONE ( @michaelpfalcone )

NOTABLES

  • SPLITS ON IRAN, CUBA DOMINATE FIRST GOP PRESIDENTIAL FORUM: The first 2016 presidential forum of the year revealed sharp divisions on foreign policy last night, with Sen. Rand Paul breaking with his colleagues, Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, on both Iran and Cuba - a split that's likely to play out in detail over the next year, ABC's RICK KLEIN reports. The forum, moderated by ABC's JONATHAN KARL was held barely 24 hours after the first major Republican showcase event of the 2016 campaign - an all-day conservative gathering Saturday in Iowa. Sunday night's panel was sponsored by the Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, a not-for-profit connected to Charles and David Koch that is holding a donor conference at an exclusive resort in Palm Springs. The 75-minute forum featuring the three senators and Karl was the only portion of the conference that wasn't shielded from the press and the public. http://abcn.ws/1xXepLL WATCH Karl's "Good Morning America" report with the highlights of last night's event: http://abcn.ws/1z1r17i
  • THE NIGHT'S LIVELIEST MOMENTS came when Paul said his colleagues in Congress should give the president negotiating space with Iran before imposing new rounds of sanctions, KLEIN notes. "They're saying you want 535 negotiators, not the president," said Paul, R-Kentucky. "Diplomacy is better than war, and we should give diplomacy a chance." His fellow senators pounced. Cruz called Iran the "single greatest threat in the United States today," and said the problem is trying to negotiate with Iranian leaders he called "radical Islamic nutcases." "When you have religious leaders who glorify death or suicide, ordinary cost-benefit analysis doesn't work," said Cruz, R-Texas. Rubio agreed that Paul is misguided in trusting the president that a true deal disarming Iran is even possible. "I am a little cautious and perhaps skeptical about negotiating with someone who has said, either be with us or die," said Rubio, R-Florida. But Paul suggested that his colleagues would put the United States on a path to war. "Many times in our fear and anger and distrust and we want to - you know, what are we going to do?" said Paul. "Are you ready to send ground troops into Iran? Are you ready to bomb 'em? Are you ready to send 100,000 troops?" http://abcn.ws/1xXepLL
  • ON CUBA: Paul was more closely aligned with Obama than with his GOP colleagues. He called it a "form of isolationism" to be "retreating, not engaging" with other countries. Rubio and Cruz, who are both Cuban-American, sharply if politely disagreed while sitting on opposite sides of Paul. "It's hard to argue that the president's deal is a good one," Rubio said. http://abcn.ws/1xXepLL
  • PAUL ON POSSIBLE ROMNEY RUN - 'NO, NO, NO, NO': As recently as October, Ann Romney was poo-pooing the notion of a third Mitt Romney candidacy. After two failed presidential bids, in 2008 and 2012, she and her husband had "moved on." Though sources Mitt Romney has indicated he's once again thinking about another bid for the White House, at least one of Romney's GOP colleagues thinks Ann Romney had the right idea, ABC's ERIN DOOLEY notes. "I'm with Ann Romney on this one: No, no, no, no, never," Sen. Rand Paul said at last night's forum. Romney "would have made a great president," added Paul, rumored to be considering his own White House bid. "But to win the presidency you have the reach out and appeal to new constituencies. And I just don't think it's possible." http://abcn.ws/1yUOpou

THE BUZZ

with ABC's VERONICA STRACUALURSI

FREEDOM SUMMIT: FOR REPUBLICANS AT CAMPAIGN KICKOFF, SIDESHOWS PRECEDE BIG SHOW. It was billed as the kick-off to the 2016 cycle, a chance for an A-list of presidential contenders - Gov. Chris Christie and Gov. Scott Walker among them - to introduce themselves to Iowans a mere 53 weeks before the caucuses. But Saturday's Iowa Freedom Summit quickly and frequently got sidetracked. There were familiar diversions, even more familiar intra-party battles, brief heckling episodes, and a few famous faces who are only tangentially involved with national politics these days. The result was that at a showcase moment for an energized Republican Party, with a deep bench of talented presidential aspirants, the fault lines of policy and personality that have defined the GOP during the Obama era made themselves known yet again. In an analysis, ABC'S RICK KLEIN notes that the clear signal was that they're unlikely recede amid the most wide-open field in modern history. http://abcn.ws/1L785dR THE SHARPEST GOP VS. GOP ZINGERS: http://abcn.ws/1BpEMha

-CHRIS CHRISTIE THINKS HE COULD 'CERTAINLY' WIN IOWA. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie thinks he could "certainly" win Iowa in 2016. Christie spoke exclusively with ABC News following his speech at the summit. Christie has made six trips to the Hawkeye State since 2014, ABC's ARLETTE SAENZ notes. "I don't know why they keep inviting me back if I can't win here," Christie told ABC News. "I certainly think I could." http://abcn.ws/15HOe4L

-SCOTT WALKER: WHAT SHOPPING AT KOHL'S HAS TO DO WITH HIS WHITE HOUSE HOPES. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker got a rousing reception from the conservative activists in Iowa and promised to "be back many more times in the future." ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE reports that described in detail how thrifty he and his wife are, he told the crowd that next month he will celebrate his 23rd wedding anniversary with his wife Tonette, but when they were first married he "made a critical mistake." "I went to a Kohl's department store and I bought something for the price it was marked at," Walker said. "My wife said to me, 'You can never go back there ever again until you learn how to shop at Kohl's.'" http://abcn.ws/1xQgCsm

-TRUMP BLASTS ROMNEY, JEB BUSH; 'SERIOUSLY THINKING' ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL RUN. Donald Trump arrived in Iowa to train his fire on his fellow Republicans, telling the audience that neither Mitt Romney nor Jeb Bush can win the presidential nomination. He draw applause for those lines at the Freedom Summit, ABC's RICK KLEIN reports. "It can't be Mitt, because Mitt ran and failed. He failed," Trump said, bringing cheers from the audience. "He choked. He had that election won." Turning to Bush, Trump cited the former Florida governor's support of Common Core education standards and a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants as straying too far from conservative ideology. "The last thing we need is another Bush," Trump said, drawing more applause. http://abcn.ws/1zGODkq

-SARAH PALIN ASKS IOWA, 'ARE YOU READY FOR HILLARY?' Holding up a "Ready for Hillary" sticker, Sarah Palin asked the crowd at the first conservative showcase of the 2016 presidential campaign cycle to take on the likely Democratic presidential candidate. "I'm ready for Hillary, are you? Are you coming?" the former Alaska governor and Republican vice presidential candidate said. Palin roused the cheering crowd at the Iowa Freedom Summit in Des Moines, Iowa, asking, "Is Hillary a new Democrat or an old one?" She held up a Time Magazine from last year with the headline "Can Anyone Stop Hillary," according to ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE. "Hey Iowa, can anyone stop Hillary?" Palin asked the crowd, before co-opting a famous Obama campaign slogan. "To borrow a phrase, 'Yes we can!' And it starts here and it starts now." http://abcn.ws/1D4bjJs

WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: U.S. 'SPARING NO EFFORT' TO FREE AMERICAN ISIS HOSTAGE. Following the apparent execution of a Japanese hostage this weekend by ISIS, President Barack Obama's chief of staff Sunday said the U.S. is working aggressively to free the remaining Japanese hostage as well as a female American hostage held by the radical Islamic group, ABC's BEN BELL writes. "Well, the president had a good talk overnight, our time here, with [Japanese] Prime Minister Abe, underscoring our continued support for and partnership with the Japanese, they [are] making this huge investment of, you know, halfway around the world, like we are, in Iraq and Syria against ISIS," White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough said. "And as it relates to our hostages, we are obviously continuing to work those matters very, very aggressively. We are sparing no expense and sparing no effort, both in trying to make sure that we know where they are and make sure that we're prepared to do anything we must to try to get them home," he told ABC's GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS. http://abcn.ws/1L8ViYc

GOV. BOBBY JINDAL: U.S. NEEDS A SPIRITUAL REVIVAL. Like a lot of Republicans with national name recognition, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is "seriously looking" at a 2016 White House bid, but he says the country needs more that just for the right candidate to win. "We can't just elect a candidate and fix what ails our country," he said at a prayer rally that he attended Saturday instead of the Iowa Freedom Summit, ABC's LAURA WAGNER writes. "We can't just pass a law and fix what ails our country. We need a spiritual revival to fix what ails our country," Jindal said. "You know, it is a time-honored tradition, going back to our nation's founding, for our presidents, for our leaders to turn to God for guidance, for wisdom," he said on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos." http://abcn.ws/1wwmh5s

MY BRO MODI: PRESIDENT OBAMA'S UNLIKELY FRIENDSHIP WITH A RIGHT-WING HINDU. If there's an Indian equivalent of President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Narenda Modi just might be it. The rapidly budding friendship between the two leaders, catching many observers by surprise, stems from shared experiences with democratic organizing, a technological savvy, and deep personal ambition, U.S. officials say. And it comes in spite of the fact that Modi is a right-wing Hindu extremist. "He is in a party which has a lot of fringe views. They have views about India being a country only for Hindus," said Milan Vaishnav, a leading India analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The two men spent more than 10 hours together Sunday in Delhi, including a joint visit to the memorial for the father of India, Mahatma Gandhi, a private lunch and meeting, a state dinner, and cultural celebration, ABC's DEVIN DWYER reports. http://abcn.ws/1GSbm0M

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

5 TIMES PRESIDENT OBAMA DITCHED HIS SHOES OVERSEAS. Even when you're the leader of the free world, sometimes you have to ditch your shoes. Sunday in New Delhi, President Obama spent some time in his socks during a visit to a memorial for Mahatma Gandhi, the father of modern India. It wasn't the first time Obama has gone shoeless while on foreign soil; he's done so a handful of times. ABC's CHRIS GOOD and DEVIN DWYER list a few of the times Obama has slipped out of his shoes while on overseas trips since taking office in 2009. http://abcn.ws/1yYVQcP

WHO'S TWEETING?

@David_Bossie: Iowa Freedom Summit: All the stories and videos http://dmreg.co/1JADXny via @DMRegister #IAFreedomSummit #tcot

@costareports: Over breakfast, Perry tells Iowa group he'll make a final decision by May or June

@KyleTrygstad: One way the Cuban gov't got a message to the WH: http://roll.cl/1yYYumb

@tripgabriel: In which long-time Romney backer in Iowa disowns him for saying global warming is real, via @RealClearScott (kicker) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/01/26/2016_gop_kickoff_draws_colorful_cast_in_iowa.html …

@SenatorTimScott: As the #Senate sponsor of the #NationalSchoolChoiceWeek resolution, looking forward to an exciting week!