By MICHAEL FALCONE ( @michaelpfalcone )

NOTABLES

• WHY JOHN BOEHNER WILL (PROBABLY) WIN RE-ELECTION AS HOUSE SPEAKER TODAY: Despite the best efforts of rebellious conservatives attempting to drum up opposition to John Boehner in today's vote for House Speaker, the safe bet is that Boehner will comfortably keep his post for a third term, ABC's JOHN PARKINSON reports. So far, of the 246 House Republicans who will be sworn into office today, just 10 have publicly stated they will not vote for Boehner: Reps. Jim Bridenstine, Thomas Massie, Ted Yoho, Louie Gohmert, Dave Brat, Walter Jones, Paul Gosar, Steve King, Marlin Stutzman and Rep.-elect Gary Palmer. That means 18 other members would have to turn on Boehner to force a second ballot. But even then, it's unclear whether Boehner would drop out of the race or work to strike a deal with some of his disenchanted colleagues. http://abcn.ws/1tFuDHC

• FLASHBACK: In 2013, Boehner felt the heat when a dozen House Republicans opposed him, but he narrowly escaped, winning 220 votes for speaker (a simple majority of all members voting is required). While Boehner was not supported by Reps. Tim Huelskamp, Raul Labrador and Mick Mulvaney in 2013, all three have indicated they will not oppose him in today's vote.

• BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A DISTANT FEAR - even if the odds are slim - that perhaps a group of 20-25 others have been able to keep the secret to themselves and Boehner could be upset. Last night Rep. Steve King told reporters the number was growing and upsetting Boehner was possible. Nearly 30 will have to oppose Boehner to take the election to a second ballot, depending on how many members miss the vote. The vote begins at approximately 12:40 PM Eastern and should take about an hour.

THE ROUNDTABLE

ABC's JEFF ZELENY: The last six years only seemed like divided government in Washington. The era of true divided government begins at Noon today, when Mitch McConnell finally realizes his long-held dream of becoming the Senate Majority Leader. For the first time since 2006, Republicans will control both chambers of Congress. But can true divided government actually be more productive than the House-Senate-White House trinity of the last two years? The answer is almost certainly yes. The burden of governing starts now for Republicans and McConnell has signaled again and again that disagreeing with President Obama cannot be the default for failing to find common ground. There's no question that many fights and confrontations are ahead, starting with the Keystone Pipeline that could pass Congress as soon as next week. But there are also signs that at least a modest era of deal-making between the White House and Capitol Hill will soon begin. Their legacies, after all, depend on it.

ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: On this freezing day it may be hard to think of the dead of summer, but in August the heat of the presidential campaign will be on. One of the must-stop "cattle calls" for GOP presidential candidates is Erick Erickson's Red State Gathering. Last cycle it's where Rick Perry announced his candidacy. This year RedState gave ABC News a sneak peak at their event, which will be announced today, and held on August 6-9, 2015 in Atlanta. All of the potential 2016ers will be invited and in a statement Erickson said "Republicans running in 2016 need to spend less time blaming Barack Obama and more time telling the public how the country will look in 2020. They should avoid the platitudes and instead paint the picture." 2020 is, of course, the year any presidential candidate would need to run for another term. Erickson wants the speakers to describe their vision of their country after their first term, the theme of the conference. Erickson said, like last time, candidates will fly from his event "directly to Iowa" where the Straw Poll-if it is still on-will be held. He stressed the party needs to nominate a candidate that can "convey that he cares. We need to find that happy warrior." Mark your calendars.

ABC's RICK KLEIN: The first-day-of-school mentality of the new Congress is tinged by a harsh reality: The new kids in charge start the year on probation. It's a probation that's more behavioral than academic, though Tuesday's going-nowhere coup attempt aimed at ousting House Speaker John Boehner isn't the kind of behavior that's likely to get Republicans in trouble. Once again, the noise will come from the fringes - but the judgments that matter will emanate from the center. It's a lesson Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems to have internalized, at least judging from public comments where he speaks of helping build a "constructive" caucus of senators. One bright spot for Republicans: They really do start with a blank slate - relatively free of fiscal crises for the first time in forever, and with a White House harboring few realistic hopes of driving its agenda through Capitol Hill.

DISPATCH FROM CUBA

CUBA LIBRE: RUM, CIGARS AND A TRIP TO HAVANA. Nearly three weeks after President Obama announced that the U.S. will begin to thaw a half-century-long freeze in diplomatic relations with Cuba, what stands to change? Peter Kornbluh, the co-author of "Back Channel to Cuba" and the director of the Cuba Documentation Project at the National Security Archive in Washington, D.C., spoke to ABC's JIM AVILA during a recent trip to Havana and said that tourism will be the most immediate and obvious change. "The first change you're going to see is U.S. citizens who come to Cuba going back with a couple of bottles of rum and a box of cigars that they haven't been able to do for years now," Kornbluh said. WATCH: http://yhoo.it/1wRGnXt

THE BUZZ

with ABC's VERONICA STRACQUALURSI

POLITICIANS ROOT, ROOT, ROOT FOR THE ROAD TEAM - AT THEIR OWN RISK. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's three-person celebratory hug during Sunday's Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions game did not sit well with his constituents, who are mostly Eagles, Giants and Jets fans. ABC's ERIN DOOLEY notes, Christie's devotion to what has been called "America's Team" has caught him some flak over the years, but he's not the only politician whose athletic allegiances have made them the brunt of some serious trash talk. http://abcn.ws/1zOJdih

THE WOMEN TO WATCH IN THE 114TH CONGRESS. The new Republican Senate majority is not the only change the 114th Congress will see when it convenes today. There has also been a shift in the gender breakdown. A record 107 women will serve in the newest Congress, with several notable firsts. The Senate will have six Republican female senators more than ever before. ABC's ALANA ABRAMSON highlights some female members of Congress - both incumbents and freshman - worth watching in 2015. http://abcn.ws/1Dbivqm

MEET THE BROTHER WHO DEFENDS CHRIS CHRISTIE AT THE DROP OF AN INSULT. Chris Christie will probably never hear the end of his public adoration of the Dallas Cowboys. But he can count on his little brother's defense, no matter what. "Those non Cowboy fans who have their panties in a ringer because the Governor of NJ is a Cowboys fan-GET A LIFE !!!," Todd Christie wrote on Facebook. ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE reports, it's not out of the ordinary for a sibling to defend his or her brother or sister, but such a public defense of his possible 2016 candidate brother tends to lead to headlines and it's not the first time. http://abcn.ws/1DbwAUO

POLLING NOTE - AT THE END OF AFGHANISTAN WAR, MOST DOUBT ITS VALUE. Fewer than four in 10 Americans say the war in Afghanistan was worth fighting - up from its low but still a broadly negative judgment on the United States' longest conflict. Asked to consider its costs vs. benefits, 38 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say the war in Afghanistan was worth fighting; 56 percent say it was not. ABC's GARY LANGER notes while it's still a negative view, that's eased from 28-67 percent in July 2013, as U.S. forces gradually have disengaged. http://abcn.ws/1tEH9Hl

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

"80% WHITE, 80% MALE CONGRESS IS THE MOST DIVERSE EVER," by FUSION'S Bradley Blackburn: "It's a new year, and we've got a new Congress to go with it. And the good news is that the 114th Congress will include more women and minorities than ever before… There will be 104 women in the House and Senate, and 96 minority members. They're record numbers and a sign of growing diversity, but here's a reality check: 80 percent of members will be white, and 80 percent will be male." WATCH: http://fus.in/1xyFDM6

TAKE ME BACK TUESDAY

1/5/1992: FIRST AFRICAN AMERICAN WOMAN SENATOR. With GOP Rep.-elect Mia Love of Utah about to be the first black woman from the Republican Party sworn into office, here's a look back at the swearing-in ceremony of Sen. Carol Mosely Braun, D-Illinois, the first African American woman elected to the Senate. http://abcn.ws/1xMyUNr

WHO'S TWEETING?

@AlexPappas: One difference between the last speaker's vote and this one is how members are putting out press releases saying they won't support Boehner.

@samsteinhp: Also, @GlennThrush's profile of Boehner is one of those long form pieces you will read right through http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/01/john-boehner-profile-113874.html?hp=t2_r …

@mattklewis: A Congressional Rebel's Guide to 'Hating Leadership' http://opportunitylives.com/a-congressional-rebels-guide-to-hating-leadership/ …

@shiracenter: On McDonnell sentencing day, an interesting graphic of convicted electeds and time served http://roll.cl/1zQKTaY

@jgm41: Wishing @GeorgeHWBush and his beautiful bride a very happy 70th wedding anniversary today.