Shakespeare, Global Warming, Sunset, and You

(Tom And Steve/Getty Images)
How We Choose Experts on Matters That Matter
NATURE’S EDGE NOTEBOOK
Observation, Analysis, Reflection, New Questions
By Bill Blakemore
Imagine you’re reading Shakespeare on an unseasonably warm evening while sitting on a dune looking west across the sea at sunset.
Who really wrote that poetry, what caused that extra heat, and what’s really happening out on the horizon?
You’ll need experts for all that.
On sunset, scientists now have news this reporter finds it hard to keep a grip on.
You watch the reddening sun move down toward the horizon until the bottom edge of the bright disc drops behind the rim of the sea. The still visible portion of the sun morphs into various shapes as it moves inexorably down until it’s just a tiny point of light. Then, as you can plainly see, it is suddenly gone as the sun travels even further below the horizon.
Experts now tell us none of that is true. The sun isn’t moving down at all!
Instead, the earth beneath you is rolling backwards so that its rounded bulk is slowly rising up between you and the sun.
Incredible. You don’t sense this motion. The earth seems to be the steady one.
Of course, experts have long told us this — ever since Galileo’s trial in 1633 for concurring with astronomer Copernicus on the matter. And we believe them.
And yet, I still need to remind myself each time (if I think of it at all) when watching the sun set that it doesn’t.
You too?
We and our school teachers believe this counterintuitive news from scientists (and now from some rocket engineers and astronauts) because they’re clearly the best experts on this question.
They are open about it, willing to explain to us non-scientists until it makes sense to us, continually risk being tested by their peers, and have a record — which anyone can check — of changing their assertions when new evidence seems to require it.
But how do you decide which experts to credit in the so-called “Shakespeare Authorship Question,” now given new life by the film “Anonymous,” which depicts the Earl of Oxford as the real author.
Why not take the word of Mark Twain, Sigmund Freud and two living U.S. Supreme Court justices (conservative Antonin Scalia and liberal John Paul Stevens) that the commoner Shakespeare was a fraud?
Accomplished as they are, their CVs show little to suggest they’re the best experts on the voluminous and ever-increasing 400-year-old hard documentary evidence.
It’s painful to think that famous and “otherwise intelligent people say dumb things,” as professional Shakespeare scholar James Shapiro of Columbia University puts it. Yet many have.
In more than 35 years observing this authorship “debate”, this reporter has never found a credible professional scholar who says there’s anything to it. (See my ABC News.com piece, and our TV report on “World News.”)
Some people appear to let themselves run with Shakespeare authorship fantasies, not asking which experts may be more qualified, because they feel it doesn’t really matter (many professionals disagree) — and anyway, it was all in the past.
Manmade global warming isn’t.
According to all the apparently competent experts this reporter has found on the matter after more than seven years following the story across the United States and around the world, manmade global warming is well under way, already extremely destructive, and on track to grow steadily worse for at least the next three decades, even if humanity does manage to drastically cut carbon emissions. (This is due partly to lag-time factors such as new heat working its way through deep ocean currents before surfacing.)
Clearly, on this subject, it matters greatly which experts we listen to.
Virtually all the world’s roughly 3,000 professional climate scientists paint a psychologically daunting picture of the world in which today’s toddlers are growing up.
Estimates of people now dying who would not if there were no manmade warming are in the hundreds of thousands. The United Nations now estimates hundreds of millions of disruptive “climate refugees” in less than 40 years. Across the U.S., more frequent drought in southern regions and intensifying downpours and floods in the Midwest and Northeast fit patterns projected by climate experts 40 years ago. In the United States and worldwide, increasing food prices and insurance rates, and expanding species extinctions and ecological disruptions, are directly linked to the warming by climate scientists and other professionals who work closely with them.
Please note, that’s “climate scientists.” This and other reporters following the story have been surprised to see a few great scientists in other fields, including Nobel Prize winners, publish contrarian views that — by all appearances — climate scientists easily show to be simply wrong.
But which journalists should you believe on the experts?
That’s up to you, of course.
Constant skeptical assessment of the credibility, pertinence and intellectual independence of experts is at the core or our professional promise.
In the climate story, this currently includes assessing reports that describe confusion and intimidation campaigns funded by fossil fuel and ideological groups trying to delay regulation of greenhouse emissions.
Any restrictions on your freedom to choose which journalists — and climate experts — to listen to are obviously bad.
Of course, surprising new evidence about the climate — or the journalism — could always turn up.
So you need an open mind. It’s just important to keep it that way.

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I hate to tell you this but the sun does move. It orbits the center of the galaxy which is also moving through the universe.
As far as global warming goes it will take a Herculean effort to change anything. Assuming the climatologists are right, it took about <10% of the worlds population to cause the current situation. Now we have about another 50% of the world's population moving into their industrialize ages burning increased quantities of coal and starting to buy cars, refrigerators, air conditioners, TVs… Do the math to figure out how much of carbon footprint reduction is required per person just to maintain current emission levels.
It took millions of years for carbon to be captured into coal, oil, and gas fields. Once released the carbon isn't going to disappear for a very long time. So even switching to cleaner burning natural gas is not a good answer. Renewable sources of energy, energy efficiency and reduction, and/or nuclear power (which has its own issues) are the only real options.
Posted by: Reality | November 5, 2011, 3:44 pm 3:44 pm
REALITY: “I hate to tell you this but the sun does move. It orbits the center of the galaxy which is also moving through the universe.” – - – I hate to tell you this, but that petty point has absolutely NOTHING to do with the context of the article or the point it was trying to make. The sun’s own rotation and revolving around the galaxy has absolutely ZERO impact upon its apparent relative motion regarding sunrise and sunset from our perspective on the surface of the Earth. The kind of pickyness you showed seems rather petty. That kind of pettyness can easily cause people to totally discount any valid points you might have made after that.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 5, 2011, 6:09 pm 6:09 pm
Bill Blakemore aptly describes the intellectual climate that global warming alarmism has created. It shows that scientists are no more immune to peer pressure than middle school kids are. To them the global warming theory must be right if there already is a consensus, so why bother checking it? That is pure laziness, the same kind that makes you not do homework and copy someone else’s work who you think is smarter than you are. But if you do start checking the scientific basis for global warming you find huge gaps in it. Forgetting theory for a moment, it is elementary that warming means increase in global temperature. In 1988 James Hansen observed that global temperature had increased for ten years straight and told us that this global warming was caused by carbon dioxide we were putting into the air. His testimony to the Senate about it was the kickoff of the present day global warming scare and helped to establish IPCC. And IPCC reports today are the bible of the global warming movement. According to them, global warming today is still driven by the increasing amount of carbon dioxide we people are still putting into the air. But here is the problem: the globe is not warming any more. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature or BEST project just released data according to which there has not been any warming for the last thirteen years. And what is more, carbon dioxide has been increasing at the same rate it did in the eighties when Hansen said it was warming up the world. Is it possible that carbon dioxide has suddenly lost its magic powers? Believers in global warming just shrug it off as a statistcal freak. But consider that there has not been any warming at all for a longer period than the period of warming that Hansen needed in 1988 to call it global warming. Was that a statistical freak too?. Or, alternately, can it be that CO2 never caused warming and something else caused Hansen’s warming instead? This is a very vital scientific question that cannot be brushed off by talking about a consensus of 97 percent. It turns out that the warming in the eighties that Hansen spoke of appears only in ground-based temperature measurements and is missing in satellite temperature measurements. Satellite measurements in fact show that within the last 31 years. What there was began with the super El Nino of 1998, in four years raised global temperature by a third of a degree, and then simply stopped. It was oceanic, not greenhouse in origin. From that it follows that the establishment of the IPCC and start of the global warming movement in 1988 is based upon false premises. To check further I compared satellite temperature measurements for the eighties and nineties with NASA, NOAA, and Met Office (HadCRUT3) temperature curves and found evidence for data tampering in all of them. It is documented graphically in my book “What Warming?” available on Amazon. com. In my judgement none of these temperature curves can be trusted and all should be replaced by satellite temperatures starting with December 1978. Only then will we know what has happened to global temperature recently. And what this record says is that there is no greenhouse warming now and there has not been any since the start of the satellite temperature measurements in 1978.
Posted by: Arno Arrak | November 5, 2011, 6:59 pm 6:59 pm
Arno, you can go to all that trouble to try to convince people that global warming isn’t happening and CO2 isn’t a greenhouse gas, but why? If it was in a spirit of scientific inquiry then you should have learned by now how the scientists have answered most of your questions. But if you aren’t interested in answers, then maybe you have a vested interest in the denial?
Posted by: jock59801 | November 5, 2011, 7:45 pm 7:45 pm
Arno, you actually answer your own question in one case. Why were you careful to specify a time frame of 13 years for which it “hasn’t warmed” in the Berkeley data? Because that makes 1998 the benchmark for comparison; but since you later admit that 1998 was an anomalous year, using it as a benchmark is simply dishonest.
Posted by: jock59801 | November 5, 2011, 7:50 pm 7:50 pm
Jock59801, if you aren’t interested in a scientific debate on an issue, then maybe you have a vested interest in the myth? And as Arno said in his comment, scientists can come out with the same answers all the time, but if their data is false then their conclusions will be false. And the data has been falsified by research centers like the one that was in the news awhile ago with the hacked emails that showed they cut out parts that didn’t fit their climate model. And anyone that dared to question global warming was ridiculed by media and the global warming alarmists.
Posted by: bob201 | November 5, 2011, 9:09 pm 9:09 pm
It’s very easy to make any study come out the way you want it. Isn’t that the whole point of scientist experiments to come to the conclusion they expect. And wrong data in means wrong data out. And of course who wrote these compter models software man and man makes countless mistakes. Otherwise we would still think the world is flat.
Posted by: justabout | November 6, 2011, 11:12 am 11:12 am
Bob201: So, the fact the five separate investigative panels found that there was no truth whatsoever to the claims you make means nothing? The fact that those panels’ reports have been available to you for over two years means nothing? You still continue to make the same outlandish and disproven accusations, even though you should know that they are false? And Justabout: The fact that noted climate change skeptic Dr. Richard Muller recently completed a $600,000 study, largely funded by the Koch brothers, examining 1,6 billion data points and found that “Global Warming is real” (HIS conclusion), and that the claim by deniers that urban heat islands are to blame for the bad data is baseless, and that the claim that the earth is actually cooling is a joke – again with no basis in fact, and that climate scientists have been right for DECADES.. all those facts are just a conspiracy of “countless mistakes”? And the fact that every scientific society in the United Sates and every national science academy in the industrialized world has stated that Global Warming is real, man-made, and a threat to our continued existence – all of them wrong? The claims by you deniers become more ridiculous every day.
Posted by: WilliamDawesJr. | November 6, 2011, 11:28 am 11:28 am
ARNO ARRAK: “To them the global warming theory must be right if there already is a consensus, so why bother checking it?” – - – And exactly what reliable objective or subjective evidence do you have that conclusively demonstrates the scientists are not checking and rechecking the theory? Your self-fulfilling speculative presumption is laughably ludicrous. Your reliance upon circular reasoning is equally laughable. – - – ARNO ARRAK: But if you do start checking the scientific basis for global warming you find huge gaps in it.” – - – How about citing some examples of these huge gaps and then demonstrate some actual authentic understanding of the topic by CORRECTLY explaining how they are gaps and what their significance is. If you reliance on circular reasoning, cherry picking data, and the distorted and patently false assumptions you rely upon are any indication of your level of understanding then it is quite evident that you don’t understand this topic. Either that or you do really understand BUT in spite of that understanding you knowingly choose to present false and dishonest assumptions and explanations. Also, so what if there are gaps in the theory? There are gaps in the theory of gravity. We still don’t know what gravity is. We still don’t know how gravity works. Yet in spite of the huge gaps in the theory of gravity our understanding of gravity seems sufficient for our purposes, at least for now.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 6, 2011, 12:00 pm 12:00 pm
Now ARNO ARRAK, as for the rest of the cherry picked data you falsely present out of context and misrepresent, it is also quite evident that YOU are the one who is conveniently ignoring data. For example, around 1820 CO2 levels matched the highest levels ever seen naturally in the previous 650,000 years – AND THEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING EVER SINCE WITHOUT ANY PEAKS OR TROUGHS. Currently CO2 levels are about 28% higher than they ever got naturally in the previous 650,000 years. I suppose is merely a coincidence that has happened since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Furthermore, average global temperatures have been trending up since 1880, AND for the last 30 years all of the warmest years have been warmer than temperatures ever got naturally in the previous 650,000 years. I suppose is only another amazing coincidence how that has happened since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Glacial melt studies, ocean rise studies, ice cap shrinkage studies, weather records, coral growth studies, tree ring studies, lake sediment studies, ocean sediment studies, ice core sample studies, and other geological studies ALL INDICATE THE SAME TRENDS AND THE SAME UNPRECIDENTED CO2 LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES. They ALL support the same conclusion. Is it really only a coincidence that we have seen verifiable and unprecedented CO2 and temp trends and peaks that NEVER HAPPENED NATURALLY in the previous 650,000 years only since the undustrial revolution? My, we are just lucky lucky people.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 6, 2011, 12:37 pm 12:37 pm
JUSTABOUT: “It’s very easy to make any study come out the way you want it. Isn’t that the whole point of scientist experiments to come to the conclusion they expect.” – - – No, that is NOT the whole point of scientific experiments. You obviously have no authentic understanding of the scientific method. The whole point of repeatable and verifiable experiments are to TEST a hypothesis or a theory. The whole point of a valid repeatable and verifiable scientific experiment is to use a hypothesis or theory as the basis for making a prediction, and then to design a way to TEST the prediction. Then the results of the repeatable and verifiable TEST on the prediction either supports OR REFUTES the hypothesis or theory. Scientists have just as much incentive to REFUTE a hypothesis or theory as they do to support them. Indeed, they have MORE incentive to have their tests refute previous findings, they have MORE incentive to refute a hypothesis or theory because refuting previous findings is usually MORE noteworthy than verifying them. The whole point of the repeatable and verifiable requirement for ALL valid experiments is so people can repeat previous experiments to verity or refute those previous findings. New findings NECESSARILY mean they must modify a hypothesis or theory to accommodate the new findings. The ONLY way for a hypothesis in the natural sciences to “graduate” to the status of a full blown theory is for a large number of different tests to consistently generate similar results that consistently support similar conclusions. That is why we have the “theory of gravity” instead of the “hypothesis of gravity.” All tests and predictions made from the theory consistently support the theory.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 6, 2011, 1:12 pm 1:12 pm
ARNO ARRAK: “Forgetting theory for a moment, it is elementary that warming means increase in global temperature. In 1988 James Hansen observed that global temperature had increased for ten years straight and told us that this global warming was caused by carbon dioxide we were putting into the air. His testimony to the Senate about it was the kickoff of the present day global warming scare and helped to establish IPCC. And IPCC reports today are the bible of the global warming movement. According to them, global warming today is still driven by the increasing amount of carbon dioxide we people are still putting into the air. But here is the problem: the globe is not warming any more.” – - – WRONG! That is NOT a problem. Talk about cherry picking data. The ONLY problem there is how that comment is PATENTLY FALSE, and thus it is a DISHONEST PRESUMPTION!!! The warming part of global warming is supposed to occur as a LONG-TERM warming TREND. Find a dictionary and look up trend. NOTHING in global warming theory holds that warming is supposed to be continuous in the sense it is supposed to get warmer every year. That condition is a FALSE condition that deniers fabricate to reinforce their belief. That condition is essentially a pathetic effort to fabricate a straw man AND engage in circular reasoning by fabricating a false assumption. Loop up the word graph, and then find graphs of average global temperatures and five year average global temperatures to see examples of temperature TRENDS. Ditto for CO2. A peak in the warming trend around 98/99 and a minor short-term cooling trend since then is MEANINGLESS relative the TREND since 1880 because EXACTLY the same thing happened 11 or 12 times before. The average temperature varies for relatively short time frames. It trends up for a few years (i.e. warms) and then it trends down a few years (i.e. cools). But the OVERALL TREND since 1880 has been consistent long-term warming.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 6, 2011, 5:27 pm 5:27 pm
– – – WRONG! That is NOT a problem. Talk about cherry picking data. The ONLY problem there is how that comment is PATENTLY FALSE, and thus it is a DISHONEST PRESUMPTION!!! The warming part of global warming is supposed to occur as a LONG-TERM warming TREND. Find a dictionary and look up trend. NOTHING in global warming theory holds that warming is supposed to be continuous in the sense it is supposed to get warmer every year. That condition is a FALSE condition that deniers fabricate to reinforce their belief. That condition is essentially a pathetic effort to fabricate a straw man AND engage in circular reasoning by fabricating a false assumption. Loop up the word graph, and then find graphs of average global temperatures and five year average global temperatures to see examples of temperature TRENDS. Ditto for CO2. A peak in the warming trend around 98/99 and a minor short-term cooling trend since then is MEANINGLESS relative the TREND since 1880 because EXACTLY the same thing happened 11 or 12 times before. The average temperature varies for relatively short time frames. It trends up for a few years (i.e. warms) and then it trends down a few years (i.e. cools). But the OVERALL TREND since 1880 has been consistent long-term warming.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider
______________________
You fail to mention the hockey stick that the global arming “experts” put together. The “hockey stick” is that point on the graph when the average temperature of the earth rises at a very FAST pace to the high 70s melting the North Pole and putting just about every nation underwater. This is an apocalypse that was supposed to start years ago. Since global warming scientists can never be wrong it has to happen right?
We’re still waiting
Posted by: ivan | November 7, 2011, 3:28 am 3:28 am
IVAN: “You fail to mention the hockey stick that the global arming “experts” put together. The “hockey stick” is that point on the graph when the average temperature of the earth rises at a very FAST pace to the high 70s melting the North Pole and putting just about every nation underwater. This is an apocalypse that was supposed to start years ago. Since global warming scientists can never be wrong it has to happen right? We’re still waiting” – - – You are clueless. I did not fail to mention that graph. In fact I described it. Just because I did not mention by the same name you used it does not mean I did not mention it. The fact that you were not able to recognize that graphs from my description indicates how clueless you are about this topic. Oh, BTW, that graph DOES NOT say what you claim it says. Some people might use it to support that conclusion, but the graph itself says no such thing. Again, another indication you are clueless about this topic.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 7, 2011, 9:49 am 9:49 am
I’m not a climate scientist but if the majority of those specialized scientists see man-made global climate change as real, that is good enough for me.
As for those few flunkies that are being paid by those who are profiting by our current energy usage, or who directly profit by selling a book on the subject, who claim global climate change is not man-made or isn’t happening at all, I believe them as much as those ‘scientists’ who swore that smoking tobacco wasn’t a health risk decades ago.
Posted by: Lydia | November 7, 2011, 11:59 am 11:59 am
I’m not a climate scientist but if the majority of those specialized scientists see man-made global climate change as real, that is good enough for me.
As for those few flunkies that are being paid by those who are profiting by our current energy usage, or who directly profit by selling a book on the subject, who claim global climate change is not man-made or isn’t happening at all, I believe them as much as those ‘scientists’ who swore that smoking tobacco wasn’t a health risk decades ago.
Posted by: Lydia
_______________________
You’re not in the majority Lydia. The latest Rasmussen poll shows 69% of the public believe the “scientists” manipulated the data.
About 20 years ago, roughly 51% of the scientists believed man-made global warming was real. When Al Gore came along and it became a movement, particularly when all the grant money became available, all of a sudden nearly ALL the scientists agreed. That in and of itself seems rather fishy.
There have been scientists who have defected, though. The latest two consist of the head of NOAA and the latest was a Nobel Peace Prize winner and he explains how the science has now become a cult.
Posted by: ivan | November 7, 2011, 3:06 pm 3:06 pm
ou are clueless. I did not fail to mention that graph. In fact I described it. Just because I did not mention by the same name you used it does not mean I did not mention it. The fact that you were not able to recognize that graphs from my description indicates how clueless you are about this topic. Oh, BTW, that graph DOES NOT say what you claim it says. Some people might use it to support that conclusion, but the graph itself says no such thing. Again, another indication you are clueless about this topic.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider
________________
Quite a temper for a man of science!
I hate to break this to you but the hockey stick graph says EXACTLY what I indicated. The average temperature of the earth is supposed to rise FAST. Even Greenpeace itself says this. They are even building a Noah’s arc for the time when the earth his flooded out. Perhaps YOU can do a little research and “get a clue”
Posted by: ivan | November 7, 2011, 3:10 pm 3:10 pm
The “climatologists” have produced a multitude of models, and only a very few are chosen as “correct”, after the fact (commonly called “cooking the books”). It is therefore nonsense to say that any floods or droughts today were predicted by “climatologists” in the past, they predicted anything and everything. When there is drought, they wail “climate change will produce drought!”. In a year of flooding, they exclaim “climate change will produce floods”. And so the they also said of unusual snowstorms. Of course they can dig through their piles of failed models and come up with a particular one to fit a current weather situation. A “climatologist” (not a degree found in a college) is an agenda-driven paid shill who produces mostly meaningless models, of which a few can be cherry-picked at a future date. There are plenty of competent scientists in the real fields of meteorology and geophysics who point out the problems with the mainstream AGW theories. The fact is the Earth has been much colder, and much warmer, in the past than now. Sometimes it was colder with higher CO2 levels, and usually CO2 levels would rise in response to elevated temperatures, not before. But these facts are lost on the agenda-driven “climatologists”.
Posted by: Ralph Siegler | November 7, 2011, 3:10 pm 3:10 pm
People believe what they want to believe (usually what is in their immediate economic interests) as long as they can. They event invent mythologies and religions to support it, until the weight of evidence (and their economic losses) make that unfeasible.
Then they switch their views and blame the other party. Global Warming will be no different.
Posted by: Jim1348 | November 7, 2011, 4:57 pm 4:57 pm
Ivan: The “hockey stick graph” says absolutely nothing about the future. It is a plot of past mean global temperatures. Period. Yes, the deniers like to claim that it predicts “high 70s melting the North Pole and putting just about every nation underwater.” that is, to put it politely, garbage. The inflection in the global mean temperature occurred in the late 19th century at a temperature of around 57ºF. We will all be long gone before the Earth’s average temperature would reach 70! And the notion that just about every nation will be underwater is pure poppycock, raised by deniers in a futile attempt to make climatologists, who of course predict no such thing, look bad. By the way, several universities offer degree programs in Climatology, including the Ohio State University, the University of Nebraska, the University of North Carolina, Ball State University, and Marshall University to name a few. As for the public believing that scientists have manipulated the data, why do you suppose that might be? There have been five separate inquisitions into the most famous incident and every one of those inquiries found that the data was accurate, the analyses performed on it valid, and the conclusions correct. The reports from those five bodies have each been available for over two years. So why do people still ‘believe’ that the data was manipulated? Because deniers such as yourself continue to make fraudulent charges that you KNOW to be false. B-K Knightrider was correct, you don’t have a clue.
Posted by: WilliamDawesJr. | November 7, 2011, 5:19 pm 5:19 pm
Ralph: When Climatologists (yes, a real degree) started warning of the effects of Global Warming nearly thirty years ago, they predicted that it would cause radical changes to weather patterns. It would get colder in some areas as well as warmer overall. It would cause draughts as well as floods. as weather patterns changed. Storms would get worse as more and more energy was pumped into the system. And they were castigated for predicting such ‘nonsense’ as warm AND cold, flood AND draught. It did not make ‘common sense’ and so know-nothing skeptics such as yourself concluded that they obviously didn’t know what they were talking about. Now that those predictions are coming true, you turn around 180º and claim that they are now wrong for having been right. Amazing, but not, unfortunately, unbelievable from your ilk.
Posted by: WilliamDawesJr. | November 7, 2011, 5:41 pm 5:41 pm
RALPH SIEGLER: “The fact is the Earth has been much colder, and much warmer, in the past than now. Sometimes it was colder with higher CO2 levels,..” – - – WRONG. NEVER HAPPENED. At least not in the last 65,000,000 years. Yes, that is 65 MILLION years. During the entire age of dinosaurs there were NO ICE ages. BOTH CO2 and temperature were much higher back then. Ice Ages did not even begin until after the Pangea supercontinent broke up and CO2 levels got down to a certain point. So, BOTH CO2 and average temperature were higher then (i.e. before the first ice age) than they are now. And again, that only happened before the FIRST ice age. In the last 650,000 to 800,000 years CO2 levels NEVER got above 300 ppm naturally. But RISING CO2 levels passed that around 1820 and they have been steadily rising ever since. Currently CO2 levels are about 28% higher than they ever got naturally in the last 650,000 years before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Also, in the last 650,000 years the temperatures NEVER got higher than they got about 30 years ago. So, in the last 30 years the pattern of record setting high temperatures (the pattern that is part of the TREND that began around 1880) were HIGHER than the two hottest periods that occurred naturally in the last 650,000 years. I guess that is all just coincidence. Now, if you still want to claim there has ever been a time in the last 650,000 years that was both colder than now and had higher CO2 levels then please cite the time-frame and the graph you are using as your source.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 7, 2011, 6:15 pm 6:15 pm
Do I believe my eyes??? Did an alarmist just write that they knew this planet didn’t have any ice when the dinosaurs roamed? Wow.
Yet, that wasn’t “normal” for this planet to them. Normal is ice bergs and polar ice with wooley mammoths and glaciers. Dismiss all logic that says this planet would eventually return to the tropical state it was once in.
But I’d like to hear their answers to man fixing this planet. What would YOU do?
Tax gas so you need a loan to fill the tank?
Tax oil?
Tax electricity? (Obama said bankrupt them, but what would you do)
Posted by: double b | November 7, 2011, 6:57 pm 6:57 pm
Cynicism is the intellectual cripple’s substitute for intelligence. Russell Lynes
Posted by: WilliamDawesJr. | November 7, 2011, 7:15 pm 7:15 pm
Ivan: The “hockey stick graph” says absolutely nothing about the future. It is a plot of past mean global temperatures. Period. Yes, the deniers like to claim that it predicts “high 70s melting the North Pole and putting just about every nation underwater.” that is, to put it politely, garbage………
by WilliamDawesJr.
__________________________
It would not be called the “hockey stick” graph, if the line of he graph didn’t shoot almost straight up, which means the temperature will rise FAST. A graph that says the temperature rises SLOW is graph that is far more slanted.
I’m sure you and Greenpeace are on the same page. Even Greenpeace says so. They would not be building an arc if they did not believe the temperature is going to rise FAST. The notion that nations will be underwater is certainly not “garbage” to Greenpeace.
Al Gore is forever taking about how we are killing the polar bears. Just about everywhere I go there is another drive to save the poor polar bears because the North Pole will be melted. Al Gore and his campaign doesn’t believe the apocalypse is “garbage”.
The guiding principle of the entire global warming argument is that 1) there WILL be an apocalypse. 2) It will happen FAST, and MOST important #) WE are to blame.
YOU were the one who insisted the hockey stick graph was absolute fact.I remember one of your posts when someone tried to debunk it. Are you now willing to say the hockey stick graph is not true?
Posted by: ivan | November 8, 2011, 11:18 am 11:18 am
DOUBLE B: “Do I believe my eyes??? Did an alarmist just write that they knew this planet didn’t have any ice when the dinosaurs roamed? Wow. Yet, that wasn’t “normal” for this planet to them.” – - – What on earth are you babbling about? Who ever said anything about the climate during the age of the dinosaurs, or 50M years ago, or 10M years ago, or 1M years ago, or 100K years ago, or 10K years ago, or 1K years ago was not “normal” according to the conditions and circumstances of THAT TIME? The climate that was normal THEN would in fact NOT be normal for the current conditions. And the climate we have now would in fact NOT be normal for those past times. The past pattern – and presumably still the current pattern – of ice ages did NOT happen until AFTER the deep ocean currents had enough time to do their thing (made possible by Pangaea breaking up due to continental drift) AND both CO2 and temperatures getting low enough to allow the ice caps to form and ice ages to begin. I have NEVER said past climate was not normal for the conditions of the past, and I have NEVER seen any climatologist make that claim. That is only something you dreamed up.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 8, 2011, 3:25 pm 3:25 pm
DOUBLE B: “Dismiss all logic that says this planet would eventually return to the tropical state it was once in.” – - – Again, more meaningless babbling. What does that even mean? It has not been “normal” for the entire planet to be in a tropical state for millions of years. If continental drift eventually shuts down the deep ocean current patterns and that is sufficient to cause enough warming and consequent release of CO2 to reverse what created the ice caps and began the ice ages then why wouldn’t the planet return to the tropical state it was once in? If the conditions that caused that to happen once are able to return then it would be crazy to expect the results to be different – in MILLIONS of years. I have seen projections of continental drift but I don’t remember how long it might take for something like Pangaea to form again. Global warming theories don’t deal with what might happen in millions of years. As far as I know they only deal with what might happen in hundreds to thousands of years. According to the Milankovitch cycles and current continental drift rates and patterns we are supposed to be starting the next ice age soon – that is soon as in soon on the geological time scale of the next few hundred to next few thousand years depending upon which cycle dominates this time around. If I remember correctly there are 3-5 different cycles that effect our ice ages. There is absolutely no rational reason what-so-ever, at least no rational reason that I have heard of or read about, to think that the planet would naturally return to a planet wide tropical state within a few million years.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 8, 2011, 3:41 pm 3:41 pm
DOUBLE D: “But I’d like to hear their answers to man fixing this planet. What would YOU do?” – - – I would join together with the other major powers to do a joint Manhattan/Apollo project to perfect fusion technology as soon as possible. Developing commercially viable fusion power would benefit EVERYONE, so we need to get there ASAP. In the meantime I would also join with them to subsidize R & D of ALL possible viable green energy technologies and cleaner coal tech and build more nuke plants. I believe current estimates are that fusion power is still 50-75 years away. A large enough joint project might cut that time in half.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 8, 2011, 3:47 pm 3:47 pm
DOUBLE D: “Tax electricity? (Obama said bankrupt them, but what would you do).” – - – Bull hockey pucks. Great big stinking bull hockey pucks. PROVE IT! Quote any time when President Obama said he would bankrupt them or that we should bankrupt them. I don’t believe that for a second. And since I expect you are merely regurgitating a lie from some conservative propagandist I expect you cannot quote Obama making that statement and cite a reliable source.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 8, 2011, 3:52 pm 3:52 pm
Ivan: “It would not be called the “hockey stick” graph, if the line of he graph didn’t shoot almost straight up, which means the temperature will rise FAST. A graph that says the temperature rises SLOW is graph that is far more slanted.” – - – Good grief, you really are clueless and thus WRONG about this. It is called the hockey stick graph because the graph of PAST average world temperatures ALREADY looks like a hockey stick. What does a graph of average temperatures over the last 1,000 years look like? A friggin hockey stick. What does a graph of average temperatures over the 2,000 years look like? A friggin longer hockey stick. Go back thousands of years to the end of the last ice age and what does it look like? Yep, an even longer friggin hockey stick. Yeah, the handle is crooked in some places. But the END of the curve since 1880 shoots up relatively steep like one end of a friggin hockey stick. Extend the handle out to 650,000 years in the past and what do we see? Past temperatures NEVER got as high naturally as they have been in the record years of the last 30 years. The hockey stick graph is a graph of PAST temperatures, not projected temperatures. Now, is it reasonable for a rational person to project what it MIGHT look like on the basis of the trend over the last 100 years plus? Well sure, some people have done that. Some models have done that. Now want to take a guess at what a graph of Past CO2 levels looks like? Yep, a friggin hockey stick! And CO2 levels during the 650,000 years BEFORE about 1820 NEVER got higher than that naturally. CO2 levels have been steadily rising since 1820 and they are now about 28% higher than then. Which necessarily also means they are about 28% higher than it ever got naturally in the previous 650,000 years. So, for about 190 years now, CO2 levels have been HIGHER than the two highest levels ever seen naturally in the previous 650,000 years – and it is STILL rising steadily. And we are supposed to conclude that it is simply a coincidence that CO2 and temperature have done unprecedented things in 650,000 years ONLY since the Industrial Revolution? Yeah, right.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 8, 2011, 4:11 pm 4:11 pm
IVAN: “I’m sure you and Greenpeace are on the same page. Even Greenpeace says so. They would not be building an arc if they did not believe the temperature is going to rise FAST. The notion that nations will be underwater is certainly not “garbage” to Greenpeace.” – - – I don’t have a clue what Greenpeace does. Nor do I care. Now, if the Greenland ice sheet melts I do believe that will raise ocean levels by about ten feet. That is enough to put some nations under water. If all of the land ice in the northern ice cap melts that will raise levels about 20 feet. If the southern ice cap also melts that will add around another 200 feet I think. It has been a while since I looked up those figures, but I think they are still in the ballpark.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 8, 2011, 4:17 pm 4:17 pm
IVAN: “The guiding principle of the entire global warming argument is that 1) there WILL be an apocalypse. 2) It will happen FAST, and MOST important #) WE are to blame.” – - – As far as I know the FAST part of the theoretical projections is on the geological time scale, as in it will take hundreds of years for the worst of it too happen IF there is no natural feedback system capable of counteracting the impact of human activity. The biggest concern is that the tipping point – if there is one – might occur much sooner relative to how long it would take the ice caps to melt significantly. If there is a tipping point and if we do reach it then nothing we do would stop a runaway greenhouse effect even if we stopped ALL emissions of greenhouse gasses. Consequently, the real concern is NOT that we will cause the worst effects any time soon. The real concern is that we might reach a tipping point relatively soon (i.e. 75-150 years for example to hit a tipping point verses hundreds of years for significant melting/flooding). Here are some irrefutable facts for you to chew on above and beyond the others from my previous posts. CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and ALL greenhouse gasses cause a greenhouse gas effect on a planetary scale. Human activity is adding hundreds of millions of tons of EXTRA greenhouse gasses that would not NORMALLY/NATURALLY be in the atmosphere. Therefore, the EXTRA greenhouse gasses we add to the atmosphere MUST have some impact greater than zero. Consequently, the only rational, intellectually honest debate to have is over how much human activity impacts climate and what if anything should we do to mitigate the impact we cause ABOVE AND BEYOND what would happen normally/naturally.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 8, 2011, 4:33 pm 4:33 pm
IVAN: “YOU were the one who insisted the hockey stick graph was absolute fact.I remember one of your posts when someone tried to debunk it. Are you now willing to say the hockey stick graph is not true?” – - – Wrong. Asked and answered. The flaw lies in your misunderstanding of the graphs and how you and others try to mischaracterize what the two graphs actually represent.
Posted by: B-K KnightRider | November 8, 2011, 4:38 pm 4:38 pm
BK
“So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.” – Obama
Feel free to google it BK. Obama said it. Only thing is, you’re the first person I’ve ever heard not knowing this.
Posted by: ang | November 9, 2011, 7:18 pm 7:18 pm
Also worth considering on claims made by climate change sceptics and the uncritical coverage the media has given them:
Introduction
In 1994, heads of the major U.S. tobacco companies testified before Congress that the evidence that cigarette smoking caused diseases such as cancer and heart disease was inconclusive, that cigarettes were not addictive, and that they did not market to children. Less than 1 month after this testimony, a box containing confidential documents from the Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corporation was delivered to the University of California at San Francisco. What was revealed in these documents was evidence that the tobacco industry had for decades known and accepted the fact that cigarettes caused premature death, considered tobacco to be addictive, and that their programs to support scientific research on smoking and health had been a sham (1-6).
The release of these documents provided a roadmap for future document discovery, fueling a wave of litigation against the tobacco industry. In 1998, lawsuits filed on behalf of state governments resulted in the Master Settlement Agreement, which included as one of its key provisions the requirement to post over 30 million pages of industry documents online (7). In 1999, the federal government filed its own suit against the tobacco industry for violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act. In August 2006, U.S. District Judge Gladys Kessler concluded that “…the tobacco companies conspired to violate the substantive provisions of RICO…and…in fact violated those substantive provisions” (ref. 8, see page 2).
This study examines the history of the cigarette controversy using the tobacco documents as a roadmap to explore the following four questions: (a) What did tobacco companies know about the health risks of smoking and when did they know it? (b) What evidence is there that tobacco companies conspired to deliberately mislead the public about the health risks of smoking? (c) How were scientists involved in the cigarette controversy? (d) Have tobacco companies changed the way they do business since signing the 1998 Master Settlement Agreement?
Posted by: Matthew | November 10, 2011, 2:04 am 2:04 am
The world should be very grateful to Richard Muller and The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Group (and by extension to America), as their independent review has finally closed the climate change ‘debate’.
Richard Muller’s investigation and the six or so independent inquiries that have been held into allegations against The University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) have cleared the climate scientists involved and by imputation the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Now the public can see that the climate scientists were correct in their analysis that the world is indeed warming. There was no “fudging” of the data by CRU. As climate scientists were correct here, we can be confident that their analysis about the reasons and the results of global warming are accurate also, and start the much deferred action necessary to limit the damage of man-made climate change for our children and grandchildren.
There are increasing allegations that the major oil companies paid for the illegal hacking of the so-called “Climategate” emails and that they have been paying for others to spread misinformation and disinformation through the media – including professional reporters – and people posting in Forums such as these. The tobacco industry and asbestos companies used similar tactics to try and cover up the dangers of their product and slow down action against them. Powerful legal precedents have been set in the litigation against tobacco and asbestos companies. Billions of dollars in damages were awarded against them.
The actions of climate change sceptics (whoever funded them) – causing delays in action on climate change – has resulted in increasing property damage, loss of value in investment portfolios, increased pay outs by insurance companies, and most importantly, loss of life. Cases against climate change sceptics for libel, slander, defamation, scientific fraud and damages are already being discussed and should now begin.
Obviously this is not aimed at those who are genuinely sceptical – but rather those who deliberately seek to obfuscate for financial, religious or ideological reasons – knowing full well that people or property will suffer as a result. Future cases such as this – which show a clear public risk for delay – must not again allow vested interests to cause delays that will knowingly result in loss of property; investments and/or life. The recent cases against the tobacco and asbestos companies have provided a powerful precedent that will enable individuals, companies and even countries to be held to account in a court of law. If a link to the major oil companies can be established here the penalties will run into trillions of dollars. I fully expect countries that have delayed to be sued eventually as well. These cases move slowly but eventually catch up with the perpetrators.
Posted by: Matthew | November 10, 2011, 2:16 am 2:16 am
yes l believe that climate change and globel warming is happening and we need to see that it is real and to think about our children and our future
Posted by: maree | November 10, 2011, 9:45 am 9:45 am