Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

Welcome to Week 3 of tracking election results at 538! With some states still counting their ballots and other races heading for a recount, we're still tracking about a dozen races that don't yet have projected winners.

In the U.S. Senate, we still don't know who won Pennsylvania, although things are looking very good for Republican Dave McCormick. In the House, there are five remaining undecided races, but it looks like Republicans are going to wind up with a 221-214 or 220-215 majority. Over the weekend, Democrat Derek Tran took the barest of leads (36 votes!) over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in California's 45th District and seems likely to build on that lead as more ballots are counted. In Alaska's at-large district, Republican Nick Begich has a healthy lead over Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola that is expected to hold up when the state runs ranked-choice tabulations on Wednesday. In California's 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte currently has a 1-point lead, but Democrat Adam Gray could still catch up based on what's outstanding. Finally, Iowa's 1st District and Ohio's 9th District are going to recounts, but they are not expected to change who's leading in each of them (Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, respectively).

We're also keeping an eye on a handful of races even further down the ballot. We still don't know whether ballot measures have passed to repeal ranked-choice voting in Alaska, raise the minimum wage in California or legalize sports betting in Missouri. The race for a seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court is currently separated by a margin of 20 votes and is almost certainly going to a recount. And a pair of recounts later this month will determine whether Republicans have taken a majority in the Minnesota state House.

On Friday night, ABC News reported that Democrats are projected to win three more House seats.

In Maine's 2nd District, the secretary of state concluded four days of ranked-choice tabulations and announced that, once minor candidates' second and third choices had been allocated, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden had defeated Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault 50.35% to 49.65%.

Then, Democratic Rep. Jim Costa was projected the winner in California's 21st District. He defeated Republican Michael Maher just 52% to 48% in a district that everyone had thought was safely Democratic.

Finally, Democratic Rep. Josh Harder was projected the winner in California's 9th District. This district was expected to be a little more competitive, but Harder was still favored, and he ended up defeating Republican Kevin Lincoln 52% to 48% as well.

These victories bring Democrats up to at least 212 seats in the next House of Representatives. Republicans have won at least 218 seats. Five districts remain too close to call.

Ohio's 9th District in the state's northwest is another U.S. House race with a razor-thin margin that will head to a recount before a winner can be officially determined. There, longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur leads Republican Derek Merrin by about 0.3 points, 48.1% to 47.8%, putting the race's margin inside the state's 0.5-point threshold to precipitate an automatic recount.

Kaptur's lead in the raw vote tally is just 1,193 votes, but the race could get even closer before the formal recount process begins. That's because there are probably at least 12,000 absentee and provisional ballots that counties in the district still must tabulate before officially reporting their results to the secretary of state on Nov. 20. That said, those ballots might actually be decent for Kaptur because Democratic-leaning voters have shown a greater preference for voting absentee than GOP-leaning ones in recent years. But that may also depend on just how many votes are provisional and how many are absentee, as this is a district that Trump likely carried by 6-to-8 points this year, which could make any vote cast on Election Day (like a provisional ballot) potentially a more GOP-leaning one by comparison.

Biden carried this blue-leaning district by nearly 9 points in 2020, while Chavez-DeRemer won by around 2 points in 2022, becoming the first Republican to hold the seat in around 25 years. Democratic groups also spent heavily in the district's primary, with establishment forces looking to boost Bynum over Jamie McLeod Skinner, who lost to Chavez-DeRemer two years ago and was seen as a weaker general election candidate. It looks like that investment paid off for them.