Messina’s Map: Multiple Paths to 270 For Obama, Running Through Midwest
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ABC News’ Devin Dwyer and Michael Falcone report:
Ask the man overseeing President Obama’s bid for a second term about the most direct path to 270 electoral votes and he’ll tell you about the kids he doesn’t have.
Jim Messina described multiple state-by-state scenarios for recapturing the White House in 2012 during a recent interview with ABC News, likening them to would-be children among whom he “absolutely” would never pick a favorite.
“We’ve always said this year what we’ve got to do is stay on the ground, put as many states as we can into play, have as many paths to 270 electoral votes and then raise money. And that’s what we’re doing,” Messina said from his sixth floor Chicago office overlooking Millenium Park.
“We’re preparing for a close election no matter what,” he added. “We should assume anyone and everyone will be tough as a nominee, and given historical elections in this country and how divided the country is on politics, that’s probably where we’ll be.”
Messina, an avid college football fan, compared the electoral roadmap for Obama to a patch-work of collegiate athletic conferences: a “PAC 10 path” sweeping through Washington, California, Nevada and Colorado and an “ACC and SEC path” that cobbles together Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
But the political maven and former deputy White House chief of staff voiced the greatest optimism for Obama’s chances in the “Big Ten” states of the Midwest, where Democrats have been buoyed by pro-union organizing victories in Wisconsin and Ohio, robust volunteer recruitment in Iowa and a lingering popularity of the auto industry bailout in Michigan and across the region.
Messina credited a year of mobilizing that was inspired by Republican Gov. Scott Walker and his efforts to curtail collective bargaining rights in Wisconsin with boosting Obama’s chances in the polls.
Fifty-one percent of Wisconsin voters now say Obama deserves another four years, according to a Wisconsin Public Radio-St. Norbert College poll released last week. While Obama’s approval rating – 53 percent in the same poll – is up 10 points from a low last fall, just as Walker was swept into office.
“That is in part a story about enthusiasm and in part a story about the other side trying to do some policies that people don’t agree with,” Messina said, referring to Walker’s effort to curtail collective bargaining rights in the state.
In August, Democrats successfully ousted two Republican state senators in a recall vote sparked by the bargaining rights spat, but they fell short in a bid to win control of the state senate.
Still, Messina says the exercise taught Obama’s 2012 campaign a “valuable lesson.”
“We now have more neighborhood teams and more volunteers in Wisconsin than in any state in the country,” he said, “and that is something we can build on for the future and that is in part a story about local control of our campaigns.”
The unmarried 42-year-old — who jokes that he’s the “father” of an 82-pound Rottweiler named “Craig” — says he’s encouraged by similar grassroots Democratic engagement seen in Ohio and Florida, all prompted by Republican-spurred controversies over union or voting rights unforeseen just two years ago.
But it’s demographic changes – evident in new census data – that Messina says signal the greatest opportunities for Obama in states he lost in 2008.
Aides have talked up population shifts in purpling Georgia, home to a significant number of African-American voters, Latinos and transplants from blue states, while touting the prevalence of young voters in Pennsylvania and Virginia, though the latter remains a “toss-up,” Messina said.
And in Arizona, which Obama lost by 9 points four years ago, Team Obama sees the greatest chance for an electoral gain.
“We really look at Arizona and see a state where we can go and expand the electorate, register a whole bunch of young people and traditional Democrats and Latinos that have never been registered before,” Messina said.
Democrats have shown they are serious about making a push in the southwest border state, actively organizing around the recall of powerful Republican state senate president Russell Pearce (who authored SB 1070) and spending big money — the largest DNC advertising buy of the 2012 campaign — to blast Mitt Romney for his comments on the home mortgage crisis.
“Arizona’s probably the only state in the country that didn’t get a real campaign in ’08 because it was a McCain state,” Messina said. “We’re going to play in Arizona and I’m excited about it.”
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Posted by: deanbob | November 22, 2011, 8:31 am 8:31 am
We’re following Europe’s path. We see what difficulty they’re having – especially Greece, Italy and Spain (>21% unemployment!). In 2012, we have a chance to turn this boat away from the same outcome. Will we replace Obama and avert the European-like disaster?
Posted by: deanbob | November 22, 2011, 8:35 am 8:35 am
“Will we replace Obama and avert the European-like disaster?”
Republican-style cutbacks and taking austerity measures during a soft economy are a big part of the European disaster.
Posted by: numbers | November 22, 2011, 8:58 am 8:58 am
Obama will pull very few states this round. Only those which are heavily controlled by Democrats, who are brainless.
Posted by: Rick McDaniel | November 22, 2011, 9:08 am 9:08 am
Obama will win because the GOP is a failed and deceptive party that cares nothing about good policy, solutions or the people. On top of that, the GOP’s candidates are all over the map on foreign policy with flip flopping and nonsensical positions.
Posted by: Chloe_ Gobama '12!! | November 22, 2011, 9:53 am 9:53 am
Conservatism as a political power is on the way out . It’s a scheming lie that that is in direct opposition to and cuts at the very heart of what America is supposed to be at it’s best i.e. , intelligent , informed caring and empathetic and HONEST . Conservatives like Newt , John McCain , John Boehner , Paul Ryan , etc etc . are some of the most prolific unashamed liars I have ever seen , and they spew out so many outright bold faced lies because the truth to them is like DDT to a cockroach . They have nothing truthful or honest to add to the discussion , because the truth is that conservative economic , military and social policies since Reagan have been an abject and complete FAILURE , so they shamelessly and most disingenuously try to pin 35 years of Republican administration’s rampant stupidity and tom foolery on a man who has not even had a Congressional majority for more than 1 (one) year . I’ll NEVER EVER vote for a conservative , they lie whenever their lips move and unlike Democrats , their lies hurt the 99% and help the 1%. At least with the Democrats , it’s easy to see whose side they are on as they are the ones trying to raise taxes on the scumbag filthy rich and cut out tax subsidies to big businesses , while the conservatives are fighting to keep rich people and big corporations ( their puppet masters ) from paying their fair share of taxes. That’s all I need to know.
Posted by: davem | November 22, 2011, 11:12 am 11:12 am
“The subjects of every state ought to contribute toward the support of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities; that is, in proportion to the revenue which they respectively enjoy under the protection of the state ….[As Henry Home (Lord Kames) has written, a goal of taxation should be to] ‘remedy inequality of riches as much as possible, by relieving the poor and burdening the rich.’”
– Adam Smith, Wealth Of Nations
Posted by: davem | November 22, 2011, 11:19 am 11:19 am
“Our merchants and master-manufacturers complain much of the bad effects of high wages in raising the price, and thereby lessening the sale of their goods both at home and abroad. They say nothing concerning the bad effects of high profits. They (edit : Goldmann-Sachs , Bear Stearns execs et. al ) are silent with regard to the pernicious effects of their own gains. They complain only of those of other people.”
– Adam Smith, Wealth Of Nations
Posted by: davem | November 22, 2011, 11:45 am 11:45 am
“All for ourselves, and nothing for other people, seems, in every age of the world, to have been the vile maxim of the masters of mankind.”
– Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
Posted by: davem | November 22, 2011, 11:46 am 11:46 am
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. There would no longer be ‘battleground’ states where voters and policies are more important than those of other states.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes– 49% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
NationalPopularVote
Posted by: oldgulph | November 22, 2011, 12:57 pm 12:57 pm
POSTED BY: DEANBOB | NOVEMBER 22, 2011, 8:35 AM 8:35 AM
Ongoing deficits and mounting debit of the United States have everything to do with the massive economic collapse on Bush’s watch and very little to do with the current president. That economic collapse stripped away revenues, stripped away people’s wealth (except for the very rich), stripped away people’s homes and jobs and threw the country into a hideous economic piet.
Posted by: John | November 22, 2011, 1:47 pm 1:47 pm
“Democrats have been buoyed by pro-union organizing victories in Wisconsin and Ohio”
Ohio, maybe. But, I haven’t seen a victory in Wisconsin YET. What is he talking about? Blue collar workers are able to keep more of their OWN MONEY–it is no longer extorted automatically out of their paychecks by greedy union thugs. Teachers are getting raises, and municipal governments are running surpluses. Wisconsin is lost for the unions.
Posted by: Stella | November 22, 2011, 6:28 pm 6:28 pm
Americans want to vote Obama out of office but they don’t like any of the Republican alternatives. Going to be an interesting election.
Posted by: Indie | November 22, 2011, 11:18 pm 11:18 pm
This guy is clearly living in 2008… The Pac-10 doesn’t even exist anymore.
Posted by: GOP | November 23, 2011, 1:29 am 1:29 am
A laughably cheerful fantasy from an Obama flak – and the reporters simply let it all slide without inserting even a dram of reality. Here’s a message from planet Earth for the obviously untruthful Mr Messina: Az and Ga are lost. Please don’t patronize us with your spin. Va is lost. Obama has no chance there. None. You’re overestimating his Wi strength based on a phony NPR poll result. He’s maybe 50 50 there. Unions lost everything they tried in Wi. Oh was a victory not for labor but for scare tactics about public safety cuts. So let’s call that still in play for Obama. It comes down to 4 states. Pa Fl Oh and Va. If Obama loses those he’s done. He can win Nv Co and Ia and all Midwest northeastern and Pacific states and it won’t matter. The press is predictably carrying water for the Obama campaign’s comeback kid story, but it’s a crock. He’s an abysmal leader riding a horrible economy into an election, and that makes it tough for him – despite mindless drivel like this from a pull string doll like Messina.
Posted by: Dave in Detroit | November 23, 2011, 1:46 am 1:46 am
Is it the reefer that is making you delusional or are you paid to say this stuff? Mass, California, Illinois, RI, New York New Jersey and ? The bad news is like Bubba Clinton this guy is never going away and will always be out there for a possible reformation as he will have a term of eligibility left.
Posted by: Bobcat3 | November 23, 2011, 7:21 am 7:21 am
This guys nuts! I cant believe the Obama team is actually thinking the can win states that he lost in 2008. He is going to lose several that he barely won in 2008. you notice how they made no mention of Missourri? He is going to lose VA, FL, IN, NC, NV, , OH, and possibly Mi and PA. Do you really think that this guy is serious? Obama has a terrible record to defend this time around.The hope is gone!
Posted by: george | November 23, 2011, 3:34 pm 3:34 pm