Obama Campaign Strategists Expect Long GOP Primary, and Like It
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President Obama’s team of campaign strategists said today they expect a drawn out Republican primary that will play to Obama’s advantage, ceding more time to craft a general election narrative largely unchallenged while ultimately producing a weakened GOP challenger in 2012.
“This is an unusual year, the most unpredictable Republican race I’ve seen in my lifetime,” Obama’s chief campaign strategist David Axelrod told reporters at a briefing in Washington.
“Whether it’s [Mitt] Romney or [Newt] Gingrich, or if someone else were to surprise us, the debate is going to be largely the same because the economic theory on their side is largely the same,” he said. “The longer this race goes, the more you’re going to see these Republican candidates mortgage their general election campaigns to try and win the nomination.”
The Obama team believes the duel between Gingrich and Romney, which could play out through next June, will force both potential Obama challengers to shift far more to the right than any of the Democratic candidates had to move during their lengthy primary campaign four years ago.
“There’s this kind of reign of terror going on in the Republican Party where you’re not allowed to step out of line, where you have to genuflect at the altar of Grover Norquist and Rush [Limbaugh] and the others,” Axelrod said, indicating the “extreme” positions will hurt the party next fall.
The Democrats predict the former House speaker will dominate the Iowa caucuses and primaries in South Carolina and Florida, where he’s leading in the polls, while Romney will surge in February in the primary states he carried in 2008. They also see Gingrich doing well in the mostly southern “Super Tuesday” states in March, forcing a continuing battle for delegates into May or June.
Meanwhile, Obama’s campaign is expected to deploy “major field operations” in all the key battleground states early next year and prepare for aggressive, direct engagement with voters as soon as there’s a clear GOP nominee, aides said. Campaign manager Jim Messina said Obama’s grassroots organizing is already unmatched by any of the Republican candidates.
Obama volunteers have held more than 1 million conversations with potential voters, at least 90,000 one-on-one meetings about the campaign, and enlisted more than 1,000 young organizers to hit the road this fall.
“I think we have more staffers on the ground in Iowa than any of the other campaigns right now,” Messina said. “We have infrastructure on the ground in all the key states. I don’t think any of them [Republicans] do. And in the general election, that’s going to be an advantage for us in turning people out.”
As for the president’s message, Axelrod said Obama will hue closely to the themes laid out in his speech in Osawatomie, Kan., last week.
While Obama will stress a “pivotal moment in our economy” and his plan for “not just recovery but economic security,” the campaign will underscore contrasts with the Republican vision, which Axelrod called “social Darwinism, trickle-down economics,” that they say led to the recession.
When Mitt Romney says, “‘I understand the real economy,’ I think the American people understand that economy as well. And that aspect of the economy is one that they don’t appreciate and they don’t want to become the model for the future,” Axelrod said. “When he says, ‘I can fix the economy,’ their question is going to be for who? Who are you fixing the economy for?”
The president’s campaign team said the extended primary battle could also soften the blow from pro-Republican “super PACs” that might deplete some of their war chests during the in-fighting, before the general election.
“We’re not going to be able to combat it dollar for dollar,” Axelrod said. “We’re going to combat it person to person, door to door. And a lot of it [money] may be deployed before they get to us.”
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It is driving the Obama Campaign Strategists crazy! They don’t know who to try to slander! It makes them look silly when they keep changing the focus of their attacks!
Posted by: Common _ Sense | December 13, 2011, 2:24 pm 2:24 pm
I’m enjoying the whole carnival. Each week peels away one more leaf from the stinking GOP cabbage.
More money for the Rich! Attack Iran! Repeal child labor laws! Electric fence across the border! Unemployed Americans are lazy! Freeze wages and fire public employees! No voting for certain citizens! Privatize everything! Stop financial regulations!
By election time next year, we’ll have a great picture of the alternative Republican universe.
Posted by: green.goddess | December 13, 2011, 2:55 pm 2:55 pm
Cool. More time to review what America thinks of Obama’s Hope and Change. Good to see that even Democrats are waking up.
From Gallup:
Americans’ fear of big government – partly fueled by a sharp spike among Democrats since President Barack Obama took office – almost reached a record high this year and is far greater than people’s concerns about big business and big labor, a new Gallup poll Monday shows.
An overwhelming 64 percent of people surveyed said big government was the biggest threat to the country, compared to just 26 percent who said big business is their gravest concern and 8 percent who picked big labor.
The all-time high for percentage of people who said big government was the biggest threat to the country was in 1999 and 2000, when 65 percent named it the country’s biggest menace.
Republicans are most wary of the threat of big government than are Democrats or independents – 82 percent of GOPers said big government was the biggest threat to the nation, compared to 64 percent of independents and 48 percent of Democrats who said the same.
The percentage of Democrats who said big government was the most significant threat to the U.S., 48 percent, has seen a notable climb since 2009, when 32 percent of the political party said big government was the most dangerous to the country’s well-being.
Posted by: Mary | December 13, 2011, 2:58 pm 2:58 pm
Got to help. Maybe they can explain the solyndra scandal along with the small pocks mess where money, tax payers at that, went to pay back big obam money donors.
Posted by: specialty57 | December 13, 2011, 3:00 pm 3:00 pm
It is driving the Obama Campaign Strategists crazy! They don’t know who to try to slander! It makes them look silly when they keep changing the focus of their attacks!
POSTED BY: COMMON _ SENSE | DECEMBER 13, 2011, 2:24 PM 2:24 PM
No need to worry, the Republican candidates are very effectively slandering each other – over and over.
Posted by: Bill | December 13, 2011, 3:06 pm 3:06 pm
Also he may be able to get the high tech drone back if he says”purty please”. He is a master on foreign policy. Ask Israel.
Posted by: specialty57 | December 13, 2011, 3:11 pm 3:11 pm
The strange thing is, Mary, the Republicans are the ones who scream loudest about “Big Government”. THEY ARE ALSO THE ONES WHO GROW IT THE MOST. From Ronald Reagan to Bush 2 the Republicans have been the stewards over the largest growth in government since this country was born. Clinton shrank the size of Govt. during his tenure. There are less people working in Federal jobs now than there were when Bush 2 left office. If the Dems are the party of “Big Government”, how do you explain this paradox?
Posted by: Riderup | December 13, 2011, 3:14 pm 3:14 pm
Bill, just like Obam and the Clinton’s did. Clinton’s were racist according to Obam’s team and Obama was not qualified to run a car wash according to the Clinton’s.Looks like the Clinton’s were right. They hit the nail on the head.
Posted by: specialty57 | December 13, 2011, 3:15 pm 3:15 pm
It is driving the Obama Campaign Strategists crazy! They don’t know who to try to slander! It makes them look silly when they keep changing the focus of their attacks!
POSTED BY: COMMON _ SENSE | DECEMBER 13, 2011, 2:24 PM 2:24 PM
No need to worry, the Republican candidates are very effectively slandering each other – over and over.
POSTED BY: BILL | DECEMBER 13, 2011, 3:06 PM 3:06 PM
Isn’t it great to see Republican negative attack politics as they attack and reveal each others terrible and obvious flaws.
Posted by: Jerry | December 13, 2011, 3:18 pm 3:18 pm
nothing can be funnier than watching a bunch of one-legged Republicans having a kick fight.
Posted by: chuckles | December 13, 2011, 3:19 pm 3:19 pm
And poverty gets more and more widespread the longer Obama is in office. I remember his campaign speeches where he promised crippling poverty for millions. Mission accomplished. Hooray for Hope and Change!
Posted by: Zazu | December 13, 2011, 3:24 pm 3:24 pm
USA TODAY today:
One in 45 children in the USA — 1.6 million children — were living on the street, in homeless shelters or motels, or doubled up with other families last year, according to the National Center on Family Homelessness.
The numbers represent a 33% increase from 2007, when there were 1.2 million homeless children, according to a report the center is releasing Tuesday.
“This is an absurdly high number,” says Ellen Bassuk, president of the center. “What we have new in 2010 is the effects of a man-made disaster caused by the economic recession. … We are seeing extreme budget cuts, foreclosures and a lack of affordable housing.”
The report paints a bleaker picture than one by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which nonetheless reported a 28% increase in homeless families, from 131,000 in 2007 to 168,000 in 2010.
Posted by: Here's Your Change | December 13, 2011, 3:29 pm 3:29 pm
POSTED BY: ZAZU | DECEMBER 13, 2011, 3:24 PM 3:24 PM
Couldn’t have anything to do with the huge economic collapse on Bush’s watch? Oh heavens no, that was just a little ‘rough patch’ as Bush called it, nothing to be concerned about.
Posted by: Dan | December 13, 2011, 3:31 pm 3:31 pm
The numbers represent a 33% increase from 2007, when there were 1.2 million homeless children, according to a report the center is releasing Tuesday.
POSTED BY: HERE’S YOUR CHANGE | DECEMBER 13, 2011, 3:29 PM 3:29 PM
I see they have a base number based on BEFORE the huge economic collapse on Bush’s watch. That economic collapse after 12 years of Republican policy and 6 years with the presidency is the major reason for the statistics you cite.
Posted by: Dan | December 13, 2011, 3:36 pm 3:36 pm
I do not envy the choice Republican voters have to make. My Republican friends do not like any of the candidates. Bachmann, Perry, Santorum extremists. They’d put us closer to the 50′s in social areas. Gingrich to corrupt and the baggage that he carriers will cost him votes . Romney to out of touch. Paul and Huntsman not enough support which is too bad. The Republican candidates are their own worst enemies in the election. They have already alienated segments of American voters. Bachmann, Perry, ex-candidate Cain and extremist policies of Arizona, Alabama, Louisiana and my state of Georgia will cost them the Latino vote (larger turn out than folk think). Bachmann, Gingrich, Romney and ex-Candidate Cain calling the young protesters of OWS “Ignorant, Dangerous” , “Un-American” and to go get a job and take a bath has cost them young vote. Remember the Young got President Obama elected. I was at Occupy Atlanta and everyone I spoke to is going to vote and it is not going to be GOP. The policy of “No to Everything” that Congressional GOP has followed to the point of obstructionism will hurt the GOP in the general election. The reporters like Mr. Daly of CBS and Rush Limbaugh, Fox News(PR firm for the GOP) that are not impartial and put a large GOP slant on stories (why I read multiple new periodicals) will not help save the GOP in 2012.
Posted by: MTATL67 | December 13, 2011, 3:38 pm 3:38 pm
I see they have a base number based on BEFORE the huge economic collapse on Bush’s watch. That economic collapse after 12 years of Republican policy and 6 years with the presidency is the major reason for the statistics you cite. Posted by: Dan | December 13, 2011, 3:36 pm.
Oh no, Dan. Haven’t you heard? Prior to January 20th, 2009, the country was in great shape! Very low unemployment, economy growing and soaring, no wars, no housing bubble burst, and we were loved across the planet. It’s ONLY since Obama was sworn in that everything went to hell. That is the official Republican position, and they’re sticking to it……….
Posted by: Searambler | December 13, 2011, 4:12 pm 4:12 pm
“Couldn’t have anything to do with the huge economic collapse on Bush’s watch?”
Posted by: Dan | December 13, 2011, 3:31 pm 3:31 pm
There was no huge economic collapse. That’s still to come. Hope you’re ready.
Posted by: Zazu | December 13, 2011, 4:25 pm 4:25 pm
It’s ONLY since Obama was sworn in that everything went to hell.
Posted by: Searambler | December 13, 2011, 4:12 pm 4:12 pm
Nope, only since Democrats took over Congress in 2007. You know, the most ethical and fiscally responsible Congress in history.
Posted by: Zazu | December 13, 2011, 4:27 pm 4:27 pm
Posted by: MTATL67 | December 13, 2011, 3:38 pm 3:38 pm
Unhinged much? Left-wing extremists consider anyone who wants to balance a budget an extremist. Lefties sound nuts these days.
Posted by: Zazu | December 13, 2011, 4:30 pm 4:30 pm
Posted by: Dan | December 13, 2011, 3:36 pm 3:36 pm
Democrats took over Congress in 2007. Poverty has soared ever since. But at least you have Obamacare. That’ll feed kids.
Posted by: Zazu | December 13, 2011, 4:32 pm 4:32 pm
Democrats took over Congress in 2007
=========================
The housing bubble and all the ingredients for financial collapse were already well established by then.
Posted by: the buck stops yonder | December 13, 2011, 5:15 pm 5:15 pm
At least the Republican’s don’t have enough sense to nominate the one candidate that poses the greatest threat in a general election. (Hint: He’s the other Mormon.)
Posted by: Chris N. | December 13, 2011, 8:43 pm 8:43 pm
In today’s Iowa poll, Ron Paul is nearly tied with Gingrich!
Posted by: blind spot | December 14, 2011, 7:09 am 7:09 am