Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out
538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.
March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.
It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.
538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Uncommitted votes look pretty similar to Obama’s 2012 reelection bid
Some Democrats have been pushing for voters to choose uncommitted on ballots where it appears, primarily to protest Biden's stance on the conflict in Gaza. However, as of now, it doesn't look like there's much difference between voters choosing uncommitted now versus in Obama's 2012 reelection campaign.
In Massachusetts so far tonight, 10 percent of voters have selected "no preference". That's the same as the percentage of Massachusetts Democratic primary voters that voted no preference in 2012. In North Carolina, Biden is the only name on the ballot, and 11 percent have chosen no preference. But in 2012, when Obama was the only name on the ballot in the state, there were 21 percent that voted no preference.
Other states have even lower uncommitted vote numbers. In Colorado, uncommitted has 7 percent of the vote, and it has 5 percent in Alabama and just 3 percent in Tennessee.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
The more the votes come in, the more education levels predict them
North Carolina now has more than 25 counties reporting most of their vote, so let the analyses begin! As in other primaries this cycle, the percentage of residents with a college degree is a strong predictor of which North Carolina counties are more likely to be supportive of Haley over Trump. That won't surprise folks who have joined us for prior live-blogs this election cycle. In Jones County in the eastern part of the state, a relatively low 16 percent of residents over 25 have completed a four-year degree (compared to an average of 24 percent across all counties in the state), and Trump has amassed a whopping 90 percent of the vote so far. It also looks like Trump does better in counties that are less densely populated, but we'll need to see more results to be sure.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Tracking an anti-abortion group's candidates
I mentioned this earlier, but I'm tracking candidates endorsed by the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. So far, the group can claim two likely victories: North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore in North Carolina's 14th District and Rep. Mayra Flores in Texas's 34th District. Buckhout is leading in her race for the 1st District in North Carolina. The only Susan B. Anthony List endorsee we're tracking tonight who is trailing is state Rep. Grey Mills, who's in second place behind Rep. Pat Harrington. Harrington dropped a bid for the 14th District, where he would have faced Moore, to switch to the 10th. The 10th District's incumbent, Patrick McHenry, is not seeking reelection.
—Monica Potts, 538
How well do EMILY's List endorsees do?
In Texas's 32nd District, where ten Democrats were running in today's open primary, state Rep. Julie Johnson is leading with 33 percent of the vote reporting. Johnson has backing from EMILY's List, which was a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List's won their races.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Final thought: What will Haley do?
On the presidential side, tonight basically went as expected: Trump will win at least 12 out of 15 contests, while Haley has chalked up only one win so far — a narrow win in Vermont, which was demographically well suited for her as it is home to a lot of independent voters, a lot of college graduates and few evangelicals. Trump also now leads the delegate race 908 to 62, as of midnight.
The question is, what will Haley do now? She has said all along that she wanted to give the voters on Super Tuesday a chance to weigh in on the race, and they did so, roundly rejecting her. She's now so far behind in the delegate race that she can't credibly say she still has a path to the nomination. She has no more public events scheduled, so it seems quite possible that she will drop out of the race, but we haven't heard from her so far tonight. Might she sleep on it and announce her withdrawal from the race later on Wednesday? That's really the only suspense left in this presidential primary.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538