At Caucus Time, Obama Revs Iowa Campaign
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While a fractious Republican Party huddles at caucus sites across Iowa on Jan. 3, hundreds of state Democrats will be quietly plotting a path to bring down the eventual GOP presidential nominee.
The caucus-night effort, orchestrated by President Obama’s re-election campaign and the state Democratic Party, will take place at dozens of public schools and libraries, community centers and government offices in all 99 counties.
Organizers say state and local party officials and a designated Obama campaign surrogate will brief volunteers on the field of Democratic candidates and the strategy for winning in 2012.
President Obama will also deliver a live video message to each caucus gathering over the Internet, state Democratic officials said. The president’s campaign sent a text message to supporters today confirming the plan.
The exercise marks a new phase in the president’s campaign to win Iowa in 2012, four years after the state helped catapult him into the White House. This year’s caucuses, however, will be less about numbers and turnout, and more about building a sense of urgency and energy for the quickly escalating campaign.
“Our expectation is simple. We carried Iowa for President Obama in 2008 and we will use the caucus this year as another step in our ongoing effort to organize our volunteers and build a campaign,” said John Kraus, the Iowa communications director for Obama for America.
“No matter what happens on Jan. 3, one thing is for sure: On Jan. 4 we will have the strongest grassroots organization and campaign infrastructure in place of any candidate going forward,” he said.
The Obama campaign has already opened eight offices across Iowa – more than any other Republican candidate – in Cedar Rapids, Sioux City, Des Moines, Waterloo, Davenport, Iowa City, Dubuque and Council Bluffs. They’ve also enlisted hundreds of volunteers.
Since April, when Obama announced his bid for re-election, Democrats have held more than 1,000 events, including volunteer trainings, house parties and phone banks, a campaign official told ABC News.
Obama supporters have also placed more than a quarter million phone calls to potential voters and held at least 2,500 one-on-one conversations about the election, all aimed at rekindling the personal connections Obama used to great success in his Iowa campaign four years ago.
“Iowa, of course, is the place that we have a special relationship with because it’s the state which helped launch the campaign in ’08,” said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.
“We feel good about what we have on the ground in Iowa,” he said. “We have infrastructure on the ground in all the key states. I don’t think any [Republicans] do. And in the general election, that’s going to be an advantage for us in turning people out.”
Cary Covington, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, said the face-to-face contact through a robust volunteer force could give Obama an edge next fall.
But the president’s campaign still faces an uphill climb in the Hawkeye State given the resurgence of registered independent voters, Covington said.
More than 700,000 Iowans are registered independents, according to the Iowa Secretary of State. (Democrats number just over 640,000, while Republicans stand at 615,000.)
And Iowa independents aren’t happy with Obama, by a wide margin: only 35 percent of registered independents said they approved of the president in a recent Marist/NBC poll in Iowa – well below the statewide average of 43 percent. Forty-seven percent of Iowa independents said they disapprove of Obama.
“What matters for Obama is that these Iowans want to see a downward trending unemployment rate,” Covington said of Iowa independents. “It’s the change. Nobody knows what to make of the absolute [unemployment] number, but what they are looking for is a sense of improvement.”
With the national unemployment rate ticking down to 8.6 percent last month, Democrats believe that the trend line is in their favor, and that voter registration levels – and Obama approval ratings — will continue to rise in response.
“I don’t think these caucuses are necessarily strengthening the Republican Party for the general [election],” said chief Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod.
“We spent 83 days in Iowa in 2007. And there’s nothing like that going on there now,” he said. “I think in the state of Iowa you’ve got … a lot of focus on issues that are geared toward generating [Republican] base response … None of that is helpful to them. It’s defining the party in a negative way.”
Iowa Republicans strongly disagree.
“It’s wishful thinking for Team Obama to think they have any kind of advantage in Iowa,” said state GOP chairman Matt Strawn.
“The reality on the ground is that Iowa Republicans have had 33 straight months of voter registration gains over the Democrats due in no small measure to Obama’s policies of record spending and ballooning debts. This means that Iowa, the state that propelled Obama into the White House, could also be the state that retires him from the White House,” he said.
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“The Obama campaign has already opened eight offices across Iowa – more than any other Republican candidate ” Since the Republicans have NO nominee, why would a candiate open offices. This is the kind of stuff that legitimatizes stories. I
Posted by: mablanco | December 19, 2011, 6:33 am 6:33 am
THIS ARTICLE: “With the national unemployment rate ticking down to 8.6 percent last month, Democrats believe that the trend line is in their favor…”
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History has shown us that lower unemployment rates have always been in the Democrats favor. It’s just not going to happen overnight.
Going all the way back to 1953…every time we have had 8 or more consecutive years of Republican administrations in the White House, unemployment starts low with them, but then ends up ABOVE 6% after those 8 years are done.
Going all the way back to 1953…every time we have had 8 or more consecutive years of Democratic administrations in the White House, unemployment starts high (handed to them from Republicans), but then ends up BELOW 6% after those 8 years are done.
THE DATA:
DEMOCRAT – Harry Truman
January 1953, Democrat Harry Truman hands the White House over to Republican Dwight Eisenhower.
Unemployment Rate (January ’53) = 2.9%
REPUBICAN – Dwight Eisehower
January 1953, Takes White House….. Unemployment Rate that month = 2.9%
January 1961, Leaves White House… Unemployment Rate that month = 6.6%
NOTE: After 8 years, a Republican hands the White House back over to a Democrat with unemployment ABOVE 6%.
DEMOCRATS – John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson
January 1961, Kennedy Takes White House…. Unemployment Rate that month = 6.6%
January 1969, Johnson Leaves White House… Unemployment Rate that month = 3.4%
NOTE: After 8 years, a Democrat hands the White House back over to a Republican with unemployment BELOW 5%.
REPUBLICANS – Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford
January 1969, Nixon Takes White House…. Unemployment Rate that month = 3.4%
January 1977, Ford Leaves White House… Unemployment Rate that month = 7.5%
NOTE: After 8 years, a Republican (again) hands the White House back over to a Democrat with unemployment ABOVE 6%.
DEMOCRAT – Jimmy Carter
January 1977, Carter Takes White House…. Unemployment Rate that month = 7.5%
January 1981, Carter Leaves White House… Unemployment Rate that month = 7.5%
REPUBLICANS – Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush (Bush # 1)
January 1981, Reagan Takes White House…. Unemployment Rate that month = 7.5%
January 1993, Bush # 1 Leaves White House… Unemployment Rate that month = 7.3%
NOTE: After 12 years, a Republican (again) hands the White House back over to a Democrat with unemployment ABOVE 6%.
DEMOCRAT – Bill Clinton
January 1993, Clinton Takes White House…. Unemployment Rate that month = 7.3%
January 2001, Clinton Leaves White House… Unemployment Rate that month = 4.2%
NOTE: After 8 years, a Democrat (again) hands the White House back over to a Republican with unemployment BELOW 5%.
REPUBLICAN – George W. Bush (Bush # 2)
January 2001, Bush # 2 Takes White House…. Unemployment Rate that month = 4.2%
January 2009, Bush # 2 Leaves White House… Unemployment Rate that month = 7.8%
NOTE: After 12 years, a Republican (again) hands the White House back over to a Democrat with unemployment ABOVE 6%.
Posted by: Forrest Gump is DEFINITELY a Republican | December 19, 2011, 7:39 am 7:39 am
Obama’s people need to get to work on all those fake registrations, and paid registrations, getting all those people to vote who can’t even read a ballot.
Posted by: Oh Yeah | December 19, 2011, 8:03 am 8:03 am
Oh yeah, that isn’t funny but is scary. I distinctly remember interviews with people during the last election. The interviewee was asked if they supported Obama’s extreme pro-life stance and asked if they approve with Obama’s running mate Sarah Palin. These people actually said that is why they are voting for Obama.
Posted by: kate | December 19, 2011, 8:47 am 8:47 am
Obama and his administration. They deny that there is a BORDER WAR. They deny the thousands of MURDERS on both sides of the border. They send WEAPONs to the cartels. They are so EXTREME, they block states from protecting themselves.
We have a budget deficit and HUGE DEBT. So we can NOT afford the illegals. They need the incentive to deport themselves.
NObama 2012 – vote Obama and Holder out.
Posted by: Roy | December 19, 2011, 9:06 am 9:06 am
Kate (8:47 AM); ” The interviewee was asked if they supported Obama’s extreme pro-life stance and asked if they approve with Obama’s running mate Sarah Palin.” I remember that…Howard Sterns.
Posted by: newcountryman | December 19, 2011, 9:13 am 9:13 am
I just don’t understand why the GOP is not standing behind Ron Paul. Gingrich cannot beat Obama. Period. In fact, most Democrats will get off their lazy butts to make sure that does not happen. Ron Paul has the right message at the right time – cut our costs by a huge amount and let the market take care of itself. We are too broke to do anything else and that is the way it is going anyway. Might as well do it in a planned way. Hey, GOP, even Democrats are thinking of voting for Ron Paul. Can’t you see it? Nobody else can beat Obama. Nobody else even stands a chance.
Oh, and all those that are afraid that Ron Paul’s views are too radical, don’t worry, Congress will not allow too much to pass. However, he can get the education started for Americans – Back to the basics – save your money and don’t spend more than you have. Work hard and forget about the quick pleasure fix. Going back to the Constitution is a smart way to go and we can always add back all the spending when and if we recover. A wealthy nation can afford more welfare but a poor nation is destroyed by too much of it.
Posted by: Hello | December 19, 2011, 9:19 am 9:19 am
Pretty much all of the Republican candidates are Creationists and that fact alone makes them entirely unsuitable to lead the U. S. of A. in the 21st century. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty and Gary Johnson. All Creationists. The US would be taking a huge step backwards if any of these clowns made it to the White House. Only Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman reject Creationism while Newt Gingrich seems to believe in both evolution and Creationism simultaneously. Four more years for Obama, please.
Posted by: 2hundredthousand | December 19, 2011, 10:12 am 10:12 am
President Obama has out lot going for him going into next year election.
2011 highest yearly average gas price ever. And a pipeline that could bring us more oil
that would help stabilize gas prices, but he is against it.
2011 most people ever collecting food stamps.
2011 1 of two Americans living in poverty.
And being the President that signs into U.S. law indefinite detention without trial
even the ACLU and human rights watch were shocked about ndaa section 1031.
All this makes him look like the best candidate out there . Throw in how his EPA
department is trying to close down Portland cement, and damage the coal
industry now businesses will be lining up next with their support.
Posted by: deadwrestler | December 19, 2011, 10:26 am 10:26 am
LOL, I would much rather be Forrest Gump than Elmer Fudd. It seems many dems are not too bright.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd Is A Democrat | December 19, 2011, 11:27 am 11:27 am
I still think Obama should get a second term to try to do better. Bad record so far, granted, but room and will for impprovemnt.
Posted by: Searambler | December 19, 2011, 11:53 am 11:53 am
searambler wrote:”I still think Obama should get a second term to try to do better. ”
.
Corzine is hopeful you will give him a second chance. Kaiser is hopeful that Solyndra gets a second chance. They all want a second chance to try to do better.
.
“Bad record so far, granted, but room and will for impprovemnt.”
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Bad record indeed… Jimmy Carter says leave it alone…. he is thankful that oBama has surpassed him as the worst President in our lifetime. Room and will for improvement…. LOL…. improvement is easy when you are the absolute worst…. but even oBama can’t seem to pull off any type of improvement.
Posted by: Michelle Shu Jas | December 19, 2011, 12:27 pm 12:27 pm
Who are you trying to kid ABC? Obama has never stopped campaigning, he’s just campaigning on our taxpayer money now.
Posted by: Freedom | December 19, 2011, 12:46 pm 12:46 pm
Can you imagine the damage a lame duck Obama administration could do? Remember if the Dems maintain a majority in the Senate, Harry Reid would still be there. It would be an absolute nightmare.
Posted by: newcountryman | December 19, 2011, 1:19 pm 1:19 pm
Vote the Republicans out of Congress!
Posted by: Jane | December 19, 2011, 2:11 pm 2:11 pm
Vote Obama and his sycophantic Dems out of office!
Posted by: Jasmine | December 19, 2011, 2:20 pm 2:20 pm
I think we are all in for a rough year. So many Republicans on top are now on the bottom. Romney Refusal to Release his Tax Returns to the Public is beginning to resignate also. Romney Son Matt disrespecting the President in calling for his B.C when his own Grandfather was born in Mexico rings so unfair/two faced. They are an will continue to have trouble with Mitt flip flop, now his Tax Return mystery steaming up——If I was Romney I would be afraid of how fast Santorum is coming up behind him! Romney Ad campaign threw over all the rest of the Republicans an made a real mess of this whole thingy.
Posted by: jupitor | December 30, 2011, 3:59 pm 3:59 pm