FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast

FiveThirtyEight's Political Editor Sarah Frostenson breaks down the state of the race two weeks from the election.
3:15 | 10/20/20

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
Dirty politics editor Sarah frost and send joins us now for more on the state of the race and I wanted to abort Mary Alice just left us and that's in Pennsylvania Sarah. And that Supreme Court ruling that. I let stand the state supreme court of Pennsylvania saying. Up to three days after the votes can still be counted as long as they were postmarked or mailed before the election. And their houses ended and this could have a big impact. They talk about the kind of impact what does Pennsylvania look like right now and that case could come back. Because this was just letting it stand in a new case challenging counting votes after the election could come as well. So how big a battleground is Pennsylvania going to be there. Crates of great now in our forecast Pennsylvania as the tipping state. Meaning in its fight and wins Pennsylvania and he wins the Electoral College. And so that ruling that was just held by the Supreme Court is significant because one thing we know about mail ballots that are cast lead is they tend to be democratic leaning and so that could really help them Biden's. Overall vote count there particularly of Pennsylvania's closer is in play just. Sellers were pickup on our own poll lives in his news Washington Post poll shows North Carolina. In a virtual tie 49% of likely voters supporting Joseph Biden are 48% of president trump that's basically a tie. The thirty inch forecast a want to ask you about this. Joseph Biden's actually favored with a 67%. Chance of winning North Carolina soak. What is your mile take into consideration at the latest poll doesn't what's the difference there between the poll number. And you're now. Right the pulling average rate so that's the big thing that our forecast is pricing in to its projections. This is looking at all of the polls and taking an average from that and putting that into our forecast. And so bring now in North Carolina a you know that race earlier in September was more of a toss up between Biden and trump. But starting in early October and inserted to pull away and getting better margins in the polls but that San Dino Marc polls come out here in the last week that are like the EEC views in Washington Post one. I think you'll see if his odds of winning North Carolina. Go down that's to be clear and very competitive race that were watching and even though bite and currently has higher odds don't count trump out. His parents Diane I know you're also tracking early and mail in voting we were just talking and Mary Alice about a minute. Hesitation that voters have particularly when it comes to. Mail in voting but how overall is the process going so far. With early voting this year. So far you know we've seen it long lions and people on the first state that it they can early vote and their state otherwise there hasn't been a ton of reports indicating. That there are huge massive systemic issues. You know that could crop up here in the next weeks and great now enthusiasm is high we're hearing historic numbers of people are early voting it's hard to price into that is how many of these people would've voted on Election Day bright sunlight is this really you know historic turnout or people just voting earlier this year because of the pandemic. That's her to answer can. Lawrence. 538. Thanks so much for that.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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