JPMorgan is now predicting the economy it'll shrink by 1% next quarter due to the pandemic the bank warns this winter will be grand but it does expect a rally in the second and third quarters based on vaccine development. And prospects for a stimulus package Deirdre Bolton joins us now. To break this all down did you given week could have a vaccine approved as soon as next month. Why are the predictions so dire for the end of this year and the first quarter next year. Well I think it's about hiring and an even JPMorgan Chase included that as art and that overall calls so we have what we're dealing with currently which is the rising number of corona virus cases and of course behavioral changes and that means collective leaves for all of us a third point which was not mentioned in the JPMorgan call but was mentioned with Bank of America is that right is stacked against Jersey stimulus and vacuum we are all collectively waiting to see if another form of stimulus and their performance. Or will be cast for average Americans you know there's point one million Americans who are receiving some form of audience women insurance. So where that is the back try. It's just gonna take time now a bright side is on its side and the timing. Again a call mega America this morning saying good back half of the year will be much stronger and that is as everybody or everybody but the majority of people. Are vaccinated and then again that was seen girls since begin to change and in the in the hundreds so hard hit anything to do it. Leisure hospitality eat an entertainment. If people don't feel so scared for their personal house or their families how well then going to a concert becomes really viable option once those -- Connie do well. The arrests as outlandish and future we could also see more people start losing some benefits and Tennessee and it's really cares act expires. Little that look like. Well the clock is ticking and your point it's really seeking the loudly and there are a lot of soreness in the chairs act which have really holding up certain segments of the population. Hasn't mentioned when he one million marriage and in some form or another receding in some form of unemployment benefits a lot of that goes away as of December 30 church there's also been some support for student loan it hasn't there has been a lot of flexibility for people who own a mortgage you cannot pay their mortgages. Right now. You are not allowed as a bank teams were close on those properties if somebody has a mortgage that is backs right Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. That's about 75% of our population if you are a rancher it is illegal. From the federal sampling to be kicked out of your waist and these are all really serious support mechanisms that were put into place in the terrorist act in March and so there really is a lot of concern with the fact that this is ending in 39 days from now Diana and for Americans on the were really need these score points. There is another vigil was and you miss you see where we're excited is he saying. Another packaged in some form is necessary. Send your dream put these things together the expiration of some of these benefits the employment picture right now the overall economic take church but then kind of a brighter horizon ahead. What isn't all look like for the average American. The average American and my thinking you've done so much good reporting Garza's even with an injured people that you were asking about their holiday plans for most people without a sense of all personal CD and how they want to interact with their communities out receive friends and family person and a larger community. As soon as these vaccines become a little bit more widespread. And people are comfortable living our lives which looks a little bit more like the pre pandemic life's. Then you have a pretty strong chance for a great economic recovery and what we spend of course adds a bit we know consumer spending what you and I send collectively. Two thirds of our economy so once people feel comfortable traveling and going out. You have a completely different economic picture Diane but until then most people will tell you when you will how time your dribble and thank you should.