Transcript for One Year Countdown To Election Day 2016
K it's on an advise in New York with you it's Election Day in the US day. And that we are still one full year out from the national presidential race. Already there's been a lot happening over the last few months with a lot more to happen in the months to come. To hell let's make sense of at all and get a sense of what this all means one year away we decided. To tell by the office it ABC's political director Rick Klein in Washington DC. To help but get the lay of the land and figure out what this all means Rick thank you so much for joining. Welcomes it in my humble later here. Apply this is currently only a year away next time there's an Election Day it's going to be today one. Only hear you say but already so much has happened and there will be so much more. To happen in just the weeks and months ahead so let's just start trying to make sense of at all it start with the Democrats. Because it's up slightly more clean field to deal with at the moment with fewer candidates. What is the current lay of the land looking at one year out. Who's ahead who's behind what are we looking at right now with Democrats wreck. The Republicans disorganized chaos for the Democrats in his order and order has been restored which is the same Hillary Clinton is the runaway favorite right now the nomination he seemed to pull ahead. In early state polling pull ahead in national polling and what a couple weeks it has been you almost can't make up the script from a senate live appearance. To me first presidential debates and there that she did she. To clean the floor with their opponents on out when they got the hearing and neighbor Joseph hired to drop out Jim Webb and we eventually he'd drop out. Even Larry let's see dropping everything is coming up roses right now Hillary Clinton nothing in her campaign is that they know it's not all going to be like this he can't smooth sail well wants. He giddiness was like this for a couple of months through the primaries but right now the Democrats CD falling in line for Hillary Clinton. We'll hear that they minute as he mentioned. She's widened the gap against Bernie Sanders I mean it was a time when a lot of people worried about Sanders numbers creeping up on Aaron in certain early primary states in particular. And nowadays we need that she's got if this maintain ample I mean is that the pace she can keep up for twelve want to show week's accident pick ups along the route. Don't it was a poll came out the other day an era and 41 points and I'll hurry immediately. In touch to say she's not get only about 41 points. So there's going to be ups announced there passerby but right now the search that it appears to be over for a major credible challenger to it is it's Hillary Clinton and it seems like progressives liberals is that when Bernie Sanders and Bernie Sanders is. Is out there he's gonna have some good moments in the weeks and months the console you more democratic debates including one on ABC news. In December in New Hampshire so they'll be IndyCar points but right now is Hillary's race to lose it's always it's always been. It's just that there's been more clarity to that given it a couple weeks that she's had. Right and every hurdle she's come across it seems like she's surmounted with relative ease or at least with flying colors but let me ask you this not to get into too much speculation. What do you think it would tape in the twelve months ahead to unseat someone like her based on the campaign off balance we'll kind of things could come up. We'll also just said yeah unless he's indicted she's going to be the nominee that's one of pretzels and the keep in mind there's still is that department justice inquiry into Ernie Els and no one is suggesting that he's going to be indicted but I'm happy short of the health scare or leisure legal issuers scandal that is or seen. He's not kidnapped in the natural rhythms and this race right now are likely to disrupt our. If she wins Iowa she says she's heavily favored do rules junior captured the collar only gets easier or there she's equipped to do to have a national campaign on. Now it went one quirk is still Bernie Sanders that is he has a liberal base on his side if you get nationalism Warren horsing him. Progress is rallying to his cause that's probably got a majority party is trying to majority critical states but it's an act not enough to extend the process but in all likelihood. We're looking at Hillary Clinton wrapping this thing up. With royalties. RA now at come would be if you dare over to the Republican side. Let's try to make that the what's been going on has been a lot happening a lot of activities in new headline every other day now about some sort of chaotic when world. Just within the field of candidates. I give me keep and the most simple sort of explanation lay of the land where the Republican candidates right now. So Donald Trump was the story for a couple months and he is no longer the only story he thinking can't be beaten is the message the other Republican candidates spent Carson. Rising right now. But I think the story right now is really two tracks you've got outside her track which include Carson include strong eighty Carly Fiorina as well me he's elected officials. That it portrayed himself the outsider and the insider establishment and that's where you see Jeb Bush strong personally that's raising a lot of interest and rubio and intense crews these crossover appeal and it was on those but I think that's the battle is shaping up that he is who can be outsider who can be insider and is article inside of those laurels you're seeing enormous chaos and tall and the in this sense that people are getting right now is that dot com can be no Republican campaigns say they don't think it's that bad Karstens going to be don't want to be unnecessarily beating heart back in his poll numbers are so even as he's out -- able to command this enormous media attention these big rallies and meandering press conference is that he has all the time. He's still have the potential results it to disrupt that order its intent to try to consolidate the Republican Party. The party in the past on the has always seek the long line for the next person up. That would seem to be in his formulation Jenna Bush but there's just no energy for his campaign right now he said a year ago EU backed in the tax struggling to cracking this I candidates. I think most will say you're crazy or establishing the finalists. That's the story right now and Jeb Bush even gets the inning and voting and Hannity for error among these other candidates who were out there doing a lot of headlines by the death. I think that's exactly what's captured so many people's attention of the last few days is. Just wing air and Jeb Bush is now I mean twelve want to go as you mentioned. If someone had said this guy's gonna be all the way back in the packing wouldn't believe them if you it than that Donald Trump was going to be one of the front runners you probably wouldn't believe them. So what is. It's going on in the bush campaign right now I mean we know that. The whole after his relative report to bait performance the whole back firing up hash tag the jet can fix it. What's going on at his campaign right now and does it have enough time to possibly recover. They have design and A half the money to do it but they don't necessarily have as the messenger to messenger. And I thought to number of his donors who says similar things essentially you know we think this campaign is doing fine we're we're not a candidate and that's a really heart in the next. So I think there's always an argument that this was right that was right but the whole premise of this campaign would be that he would be overwhelming front runner and even goals wire wire in this campaign. No way that happens I think he's likely to take camp out New Hampshire essentially lead Tennessee for asthma uneasy and and to to just try to get as much dynasty and in that investing in public office they are no real chance of winning in Iowa and in hope that the others are killing each other off and he's while standing with the organization and money at the end is tough though he's out this week with the new e-book. Talking about just aren't as you say jet can fix it you wonder what it is is that the campaign is is that the messaging. Is it the whole Republican primary is seems to be. I'm not going formula and Whitney jet. Right yes I think that's been surprising a lot of people but let's talk about the whole idea being one year out because. They're still a lot of time before people actually head to the polls to decide who they want so. In that year I mean this is not her first radio let's look at elections past. When candidates and being in front a year out. What has that have been seen Republican candidate shift already in this field is that in the case in past elections as well to these poll numbers. Mean anything. The need only it is not just as donors and chattering class let me if if the question is does the polling today news any president a year from now the answer is definitely no. But you Michael things first the primaries actually start only in about three mosques so we're not. When asked for as you might think looking at the calendar beating that worries when the first primaries happen until March you've got an enormous number delegates awarded so. We're likely to know who the players are not in twelve months been six months or less than that. So that's one thing the other thing is that it would what matters now the pre game is is staying in the next I think it's like an NBA basketball game and that it was just say humor in in the last couple minutes that's all you need to tune in to see who's gonna win if you stick around outlaw but it's easy to get blown out of the first quarter you can get out of contention entirely we're very seasoned candidate struck out formidable candidates like Rick Perry and Scott Walker juveniles. Celebrated Republican governors in the country all of them gone months and months and months before I even begin so I think we could still have some enemy of the field a lot of the invisible primary donors going one way or the other operatives into and campaigns being set up that actually does matter in the longer all but for most people eating doesn't begin for for quite some time it is just as winnowing process that it is going to assess us over the next couple months. Rick I was waiting for your for sports and out east they keep getting mad and they're pretty soon but a bit. Tell me and they daily needs. I'm think that with an help me understand how a year out based on what is seen in elections past. What are some examples from from previous elections which he seeing people. Possibly its front runners or possibly it's as strong contenders. Who just kind of disappeared. After after a lot of little while we got closer and closer through the primaries and closer to election. Sure all four years ago you don't want to go any further back than that realized exactly it is time for years ago Herman Cain was his. Is going to be followed very quickly by the Newt Gingrich and came right after the Rick Perry moment Michelle optional none of those folks eating eggs came close to smelling the nomination it was never gonna happen for any of those folks and an eight year you know four years ago Rick Santorum was nowhere Iowa and he's he. Friends of the top peel the Keating that it probably was part makes the whole time he was never really count now. You can go back to that is the election for instance Joseph Lieberman was the front runner for the Democrats he ended up being. Nowhere to be seen Howard search late it was overtaken so this is a real dynamic process. The point is a year outlaw don't operate much I think most people in 2000 settlers and Hillary Clinton. Is going to be the nominee and probably next president she obviously. We knew we didn't know exactly strength that evening we bring to it so a lot of unexpected things can happen here he's away. Dry things out of people and testing people on the way and voters have a way of surprising expectations and because it is this dynamic process for state accuracy goes into reacting to the news and world events and political dirty tricks and adds an area happens there really is no way to accurately game plan other than to say that what happens what is happening today does not evil happier now nothing in the country cuisine certainly our politics and our polling right now it is here now. Now that's an excellent point that there are a ton of external forces as well as the on each of the campaign's control that we'll obviously. Contribute and an influence how people see the candidates the candidates themselves react. I'm gonna put your feet to the fire at what what is it that you are looking for next. Either at an event that's happening next or something action from one of the campaigns that you think. Could change particularly on the Republican side how the candidate field is currently laid out. I have my eyes are reviewing tankers there's these 244 year old Cuban American first term senators who bull potential robbery how to appeal what did he duties brought there it's what they do to be injuries other kinds of voters they have. A message that working right now. A little bit on the radio history but I think wanted to too then people that are poised to break outs before this is done and in other closer and that's how does Donald Trump responds to real accurate pressure he doesn't like losing. We know that he doesn't like losers so what happens if poll after poll has him down he starts taking on. Incoming fire from other campaigns respond as he left are already seeing him on the attack. What does that look like it Donald Trump. Doesn't think he's Indian army does he did say in a race I think there's a lot of balls equally between now and even the primaries. And I look into these breakout stars the potential for someone to do something unexpected and to begin to expand what they're demographic agenda and blur it was like. Well let me ask you about that we haven't had a candidate like Donald Trump in recent history come from the outside like this and maintain that kind of front runner status for so long so. What does that look like what do you think. Recent history is one way to put it ever in vanity universities like that. I had one really Smart pol only that not since Andrew Jackson. In the early nineteenth century you had someone who's not a threat to the establishment coming in kind of take it all over. And you may go back that are buying any kind of up celebrity. Politician Jackson's war hero was different that trauma so this is this is all uncharted territory and no one really took this candidacy seriously don't and one birthplace. Much less maintain his lead and show you start piling on ballots in. And be part of the daily political rise in custody but he's Polly console two playing a game he's. He has learned he's adjusted I think the scare. So I think the aging populations in. He's not gonna collapse under angle supporters that he has the 20/20 percent of the party. They're behind in Haiti act goes away a little. Zero worked to war if it is amended double digits that's enough to potentially win some states so is trump and is for real how audiences or less knows because there's really nothing we can look to. In our history books are any act of politicians it was say this is what this is what it is natural light is the fact is fox like nothing BRC. That is serious throwback Andrew Jackson and bring if anything near. Political director Rick Klein helping us understand what that is going on and eight sixteenths daily air out an exciting. Years ago. Stay with us as always for continuing campaign when he sixteen average thanks for watching are all but here at ABC. In the in the ER.
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