What to watch for on the final night of the 2020 DNC | FiveThirtyEight

Galen Druke speaks to Nate Silver about what to watch for on the fourth and final night of the 2020 DNC.
9:52 | 08/20/20

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Transcript for What to watch for on the final night of the 2020 DNC | FiveThirtyEight
And I. I. Hello and welcome to our fourth night coverage up the Democratic National Convention here at 538. Tonight the man of the hour former vice president and democratic nominee. This time around Joseph Biden is going to be giving this speech. Also tonight there's Cory Booker Tammy Duckworth Tammy all the way in. So let's get into right cured meats you preview the night is the one and only needs over Haney has a gallon. Hey Gayle and how are you. Don't pretty well overall a little tired after three late nights and now it's hardly got. The reach of this it's a lot it's a lot of long days for some reason. In the pandemic actually yet feel a bit more. Deliberate I found about like. Your work life balance trade name look at us we got so much to complain about. We're we're very privileged and spoil it should net. But like we've become when he got the conventions either way because they actually are not in this funding to go to because they are elected greatly by security anyway let's let's talk of asking. They're for the task at hand. Which is first of all Joseph Biden is speaking today what are we expect from the nominee party Brittany except the nominees and armed you generally get. Fairly. Safe and perfunctory speech that checks. A lot of boxes. And so in some ways. Unless you're speaker. You're nominee is historically. Radically different like Brack Obama our guest Donald Trump and its own way. Night for can often be used most boring night. Department has also they don't want it. Had a when upstaged the nominee right. So there are some prominent speakers tonight but there's no. Rocker Michelle Obama right there's no Clinton there's no. Keynote right and so therefore. It's. Going to be largely on Biden and I'm sure he'll give a fairly competent speech the like eight I I don't know I don't. Remember. A lot of nominees speeches as opposed speeches from. Other people in the campaign. Yeah for sure so. Essentially his job is do no harm appealed to different constituencies. In the party. I mean a lot of what some of the coverage of the convention has been so far the programming of the convention news talk to different parts of the party its outer up. I do want to point out that. Michael Bloomberg is speaking tonight do you remember way back when. When where and American Samoa that pundit talkers he was pretty. Empt up on the chances that Michael Bloomberg would be accepting the nomination or if not accept the nomination. Cause a contested convention. One of the other things. It's an extremely narrow and selfish Kobe gripe. Is I 38 was very. Berisha Bloomberg and that wound up looking Smart we get no time to brag about it because. Much more important things happened. In the were hurled like covad. But yeah Bloomberg. I mean somebody is candidates are fastening their own way you write imagine that we are contesting this primary and people who detach. We're took the nomination or Bernie Sanders. Andrew Yang I don't know right in a moment like this to be fascinating. Results and Covert American tacit convention would actually care and it just speculation. Like one of those calls were everyone's a little better tonight yeah LA and trying to make their voices aren't. I mean it's probably how can we deserved. Right now I mean actually I mean I think people don't realize like. Joseph Biden. Went from like the zero to sixty. In that nomination process not cirrus it's important he didn't come from zero right of like. 45 you know slowing down to sixty winning a nomination. Like faster literally than anybody has almost arm and light. But coincided with when they commit situation is getting much worse and would be in much more awkward to you have contested. And changing all these primary dates right if that happened in 2016 when Clinton was not that far ahead of Bernie Sanders can you imagine. Chaos would causal. When assessing. You know how this nomination process shook out ultimately gonna have to hold two things in your head at the same time one. Joseph Biden was leading in the polls essentially all of 2019. Which did RO. Put him in a strong position to win the nomination how ever once the actual voting process started he taped and then it wasn't until South Carolina the cute really. Now that I'm Eric. There's another view which is that Joseph Biden is not that popular like progressive young whites and progressive young whites have a lot of influence in. Iowa and New Hampshire. He does at least respectively well with almost every other group. In the party. And so I'm not sure I mean obviously when the donations are targets in early polls were wrong right. I'm rush there's anything that involved other than Iowa and New Hampshire. Going first rate also then like. I mean I don't know if it was obvious and we said this is someone if people who were also pretty skeptical of Bernie but not that skeptical specially done after Iowa New Hampshire right. I'm not sure it was obvious in advance of the Bernie thing had a ceiling this time in fact we would. Be very sensitive about saying actually let's not make any assumptions about ceilings does those can be faulty assumptions. But in the end. The Sanders did have it ceiling in the end. Mayor Pete had a ceiling for different reasons right and in the candy to maybe had the capacity build broad coalitions like Elizabeth Warren and Pamela Harris. Either make tactical errors poor frankly. Maybe suffered. Because of their gender in the first nomination after Hillary Clinton right in so like. A Biden was an underrated candidate but also like. You know if what if it was to connect if Cory Booker. Had somehow taken off right I'm not sure that Cory Booker would had been. So easy to dislodge if he had somehow gain momentum right in said he had these kind of pretty flawed Kane it's at the end right. Bloomberg is that really Democrat Bernie do we we know all the plus of minus a Bernie embittered Checchi had. No pulse with nonwhite voters right. In the end that's not that tough a set of opponents for for by. Take on. Yeah so. Badges that we moved on pretty quickly from the primary by interest and to look back and reflect on all of the candidates who are winning the nomination tonight. After you know historically diverse and parole terms of race and gender. Field. The Democrats overwhelmingly selected Joseph Biden answered tonight is as night we're gonna hear what he has to say. Before I let you go name I do wanna check in on the forecast model we haven't talked about it in a minute. So witty things stand and maybe a little early for the convention itself to shake things up. Also we know that. The convention. Is taken into account any convention bounce in the forecast but where everything stands. So I would say in action or nothing remotely interesting is happening with the model right now. As we tape the spines at 73 per there I think he's been doubts around sentiments of a 73. And has been in that range. For Rican half now since we launched there have been some national polls and in pretty good for Biden. There have been some state polls have been a bit less good but not very many polls but over all the model is. Pretty conservative anyway. During convinced that kind of hedges its any change that it sees in the polls to begin with. And so it would take. My word dramatic polling to really shifted around him it's. Yet we saw a somewhat good pull for trump in Pennsylvania today is there any sense that. There is a widening gap between where. Their popular vote national popular vote stands and where the Electoral College stands. I think that's making too much of thin data. Like okay what could make a case that like. Trump got a penalty because his handling of the protests and maybe now things are reverting back. A little bit maybe now Biden is like so you know maybe a Biden is gaining among like. The more traditional democratic coalition could some polls showed him not doing as well as Democrats often be among nonwhite voters rates went he could see is like. Maybe the coalition by its coalition. Transforms back from looking a little bit more like Obama's coalition a more like Clinton's coalition. And that appeared secret penalty and Electoral College that's a pretty speculative story that I think. We need would need a lot more data support you know and I mean. But he act you know like I said Biden's numbers happen like new bit with African Americans and Hispanics. Obviously. African Americans Hispanics Asian Americans. It Americans impact to our people who have been heavily focused upon after the conventions. And so Biden it's a balance it may be among those groups and that will be felt differently. In some states and others like Wisconsin say arm but that's began getting. Ahead of ourselves here. All right well we will talk about this more tonight and we will watch as the data comes in after the fact. Will be my blogging at 530 dot com will also be podcasting later in the night so thank you Nate and I'll see you later on this evening. Thank you can. At a reminder to everybody to subscribe. To the 538 YouTube channel where for the button is somewhere around here click it subscribed. And we'll see you.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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