FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast

FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley breaks down key differences in this year's election versus 2016.
3:06 | 08/12/20

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
Now with Biden's running mate now solidified in the national party conventions coming up later this month the presidential race. It's heating up by and is ahead of trump in the polls right now. There's still plenty of time for the races tighten before November 3 ABC news partner by 38 release their presidential election forecast today. And 538 elections analyst Jeffrey skelley joins us now Jeff explain what you mean when you say that right now Biden is favored. To win the election. I think we we looked at. What the polls show but we heard that word out. For a little over eight years away from the election and the election we're day Biden would be pretty Hadley senator dole land but it oxygen. Day. And so looking at the polls at this point but knowing how much they could shift to other recent tightened between now and Election Day. But his shaved her overwhelmingly. Way of thinking about age Donald Trump change reelection based cats. Slightly better can be changed his giddy at twice in a row and so but. There's enough uncertainty in the race president shot to death under her. There isn't general mistrust with polls because of the prediction that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016 and of course she did and so what's the difference. This time around. I ma Lexington job last time showing. The race. Track. And is it is. When election. Or. She so this time around or. Orders and the owners Wes Brown were. The race. Gary John. The show. Or other inch. Where. Like he actually lowers answer to race some accent. Courts have this other thing going on. Or. Use. All sorts of uncertainty and so yeah. Actually she utters. Also. Are reacting to what's gone I can't we don't know we're out acts. How much does a pandemic complicate things when you're trying to make these forecasts. Well one of the things we're sort of keeping in mind is that. The polls has generally been pretty good over the years. It's turnout is more uncertain and in the primaries are under. Current buyer's condition. Are all over the issue. Certain that in mind we want sure that were accounted for greater level of certainty. Turnout election. So eat were. Or error or. Seen or. An understandable 538 steps Kelly we appreciate it Jeffrey thank you.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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