FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the electorate will be different in 2020

The crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting in this election and how voters' preferences have changed or stayed the same since 2016.
51:45 | 10/28/20

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the electorate will be different in 2020
Hello and welcome to the 530 politics podcast I'm deal injury. There are six days until Election Day. An adverse sitting down to record this 73 million Americans have already vote it. That adds up to route 53%. Of all the votes cast in 2016. And today we're gonna take a closer look at who exactly is voting. And how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago. After the 2016. Election and major theme was the educational are. With non college educated white voters swinging ports trump and those with a college degree moving toward Clinton and we also saw sizable gender gap. We solved the worked for now amongst black Americans and young people compared with the 2008 and 2012 elections we also saw other trends according to geography. Class at Sutter. And so are those trends that we saw in the 2016. Election sticking and what are the new trends that are emerging in 20/20. That we can tell so far in May be focused on in the aftermath of this election so we're gonna try to dig through the data and give you a picture of what the electorate looks like. And here at me to do that our senior politics writer Perry bacon junior had pared it is you know. Utes are also are in us is senior writer Mary Thompson of an area. And elections analyst Jeffrey Skelly and hey Gayle. So before we begin issued draw comparisons we're at 2006 team will earlier elections. I want to try to paint a picture of what the overall electorate looks like Iain twenty Tories are Perry can kick us off just in terms of the rate down by age race education even party arrested leash and those are the facts. About our voters are are reticent Democrats about the urban as the Republicans and learner independence. But as you know independence often lean toward one party in the some new Kirkland cleaners. About 49%. Of voters and advise Democrats about 44. I didn't apply as a Republican then numbers pretty similar to sixteen actually suggesting. In sixteen at some amount of people who like didn't lean democratic generally voted for trial. We look at the electoral terms of race. Which you see is about 69%. Of voters register voters are nonhispanic white Americans about 11%. Are black about 11% are standing in about 80% are others who has mostly Asian you look at age. Doubts. 52%. Of voters are needs it to you are over. In about 48%. Our needs are younger than needs fifties and electric slightly leans older as opposed to younger. In in terms of degrees. About two thirds of voters. Either. Went to high school only are we into some colleagues but don't have any degree that's about. 65%. Of voters were hewn. 21%. Of voters or an acute heavy bachelor's degree in Lee and and then 15%. Voters have a post grad degree according to use and again most voters do not had a college degree. And then finally according to Q about 64%. Of voters are some kind of Christian. And about town and it's a Protestant Catholic gets across races. And about about 36% of voters are not Christians and most of those people are unaffiliated it also includes Muslims. Jewish people and other religious. And of course arguments in their Perry are registered voters and so. What the actual electorate looks like can depend somewhat on turnout and we are expecting. Higher turnout this year that we saw in 2016. We mention this previous week. Were expecting turnout according to our property forecast to be somewhere between a 14465. Million this year. And that compares with a 137 million in 2016. So Emilia. You know who are we seeing potentially turning out in 20/20. That we didn't see in 2016. So why group that I'd been watching pretty closely art young voters. And that's a group. We are traditionally. Turnout is quite well now. I am less than half. Young voters who were eligible to actually did it when he sixteen. I. Looks like so far that we are heading for higher turnout among young voters and meet with the caveat of course debt. You know just because we're seeing. And it surge of early voting among young people you know we don't know how many of those people would have voted on Election Day don't know what transit Klay in the next few days so. You know take all of this the degree assault it could change by. You know what I would say it's the year we are seeing this in the early vote and also it just in several surveys I've seen including Aaron. The survey that we recently published. Which it sows that was focusing on why Americans dealing don't vote just seeing really high levels. The easy ask them about voting from young people in a sense that. This election really matters. And that's important because one of the things that we found in answer day. Is that act you know it's not totally fair to think about Americans justice currently voters and non voters. Actually he. Most people sort of fall in between milk food and some like elections they won't bode and others. Young voters tend to fall more in the category of people who just don't vote very much at all but what our data indicated is that people are. More likely to. You know god cast a vote which for young people can can be quite typical out we found that there are much more likely to report experiencing barriers to voting might not get off work at. Stand and Ryan not. He an older folks so this is not necessarily I think it's easy for young people and I would expect those barriers to even more complicated in the middle of the pandemic. Out but. You know when people feel lake your vote really has a chance to matter and manipulate the election is really important. You know they're more likely seeing too. Kind of say okay you know yeah I am against yen in and I knew an outline this year because this really matters resins and other years in the name latency you know I've class I Actuant deepest this isn't worth it. So I'm that's a groups that I am definitely be keeping an eye on and I think we are seeing some signs that turnout could be. Higher. Books. One of the takeaways after her 2016. That we heard about was that. We didn't see black turnout at the same levels that Obama saw in 2008 and 2012. Now that may be obvious that the excitement surrounding the first black president would increase. Black turnout but we particularly saw it democratic strategist pointing to areas around Philadelphia Detroit Milwaukee as key. Q you know a path to Electoral College victory is there any indication that we're seeing higher black turnout this time around. In a state like Pennsylvania assume that Wisconsin. -- file does not have information regarding race you're talking about it C North Carolina Florida. Com because of the very rights act the seats you got to keep track of that stuff. Com but. Because we just don't know how many election Davis are gonna be. Trying to sort of Parse reveal the early voting on top of that I think. Doesn't really tell us all that much except I think just generally saying we can say that turnout looks like it's going to be decently high. I'm not just because we see all these early it's which we definitely do. But because we have polling that shows. People are very anxious in the election. Like a million mentioned they think the stakes are extremely high. In a pew poll earlier this year more than 80% of respondents said. Who wins really matters whereas back X 2000 election things were a lot more evenly split on whether or not the result even mattered that much. And you have galloped with a poll that found. 71% rate should voters were more enthusiastic about voting in this election. Dan Dan previous ones solicit the questions asked and that was the highest figure Gallup has ever found since they started asking us in the 1990s so I think we know from those polls. Plus overseeing enters the early voting. Returns that people are highly engaged and that turnout strikingly pretty high this election it could be record setting. One thing to note about the black turnout was in 2012. Particular. Black turnout was it's the same level as white turn up as early and usually exist only. White white voters voted for you know or Iverson hire them black voters do in terms of turn. Instantly when he 1826. When he it doesn't well black turnout was equal light turnout and sixty had that yet again. In 2018 we actually had that yet again you have white turnout was at a higher incidence and black dress and that's my expectation is that we. You know is did. It may be the case of both black turnout is higher for that matter youth turnout may be high hear into when he sixteen. But that yet may be the same because my guess is that older voters. And white voters may also tread even higher levels. And when he's sixteen and welcomes part of course is not. Just turn album with sort of differential. Turnout like Obama benefited a lot from. Black turnout without a lot while light turnout really didn't into doesn't agent well. Where were thinking about turn out it's sort of how to people vote out of the entire group. But if that group is making up a larger and larger percentage. The potential electorate and even if turnout. Doesn't go up this much they're gonna end at forming a larger share of the actual electors if you're thinking about voters of color. It is very likely more voters of color. Or may well a voter's political larger percentage of the overall electorate in this election and they didn't succeed and that has ramifications. Because those voters tend to lean more democratic than white voters so. That on its face right there there have been multiple analyses that sort of just took. What happened in 2016 and then projected for population change in found Hillary Clinton would've won if she was. Running under the current conditions because just because of demographic changes now it's a very simplistic analysis but nonetheless. It gets this or the point that if saying 72. To 74% of the electorate last time was white and this time it's seventy to 72%. Depending on what you're looking at exit polls other sorts of estimates mom. That that is a matter because more anomaly lenders in the electorate. All right so bats turn our and of course we can speculate a bit of art turner are based off road. Early voting and polls thus far but we won't come back to that once the ballots are counted and recover more complete data. But we do have a lot of polling about preferences and our preferences have shifted. Over the past four years. And Jeffrey you actually kind of took a deep dive into this and walk down a whole bunch of different data from two dollars and sixteen and this year and right to atropine abroad broader picture. How preferences have shifted so what do. You far while they look date data from the 2016. Cooperative congressional elections and he which runs every. Up every two years basically. And gives you a huge data say in a talk in an interview about 60000 people in and I took that data and I compared it to about a month. Weekly tracking surveys from. Democracy fund and easily nation's skate. Now anytime we compared to serve accepted the cautious about to take aways because. They have different methodologies. That day and want is invalidated voters it would succeed the others just of voters with a very high protect propensity or likelihood of voting so it's deathly not. Perfectly apples apples but I think some broad takeaways weakened we can say about the data also reflecting on data from other sources that looked at. Is that. Nonwhite voters may vote somewhat slightly more for trump than it did four years ago. Whereas white there's that a college degree made slightly. More for Biden and eat it for Clinton for years ago. I think dozer to major takeaways from from one I was looking at. But what you have to remember is that because wipers are gonna make up roughly seven in ten of every. Voter in the electorate. That net Schiffer Biden. Among white voters is broadly more tactful than the net shift among nonwhite voters for trop. Job just because white voters make a much larger share the electorate so what we want. Pat and shift amongst the white voters that you mention. Is it across. All different types of white voters is it just white voters without a college degree what are some of some of them further breakdowns amongst white voters. Sure what it probably one of the more interesting findings is. They came out of what I wrote was that cut. Basically the entire shift among white voters in the nation's skate game for for 20/20 eight compared twenty succeed. Came from white women shifting toward Biden. The margin among men who was was more or less the same as it and then in 26 he among white men so that. Is pretty notable and I think it it touches on somewhat mealy is done talking about gender gap in how how big news. Yeah back and mean that the gender gap is definitely something that I'd been watching and acts. You know I measured it tells you basically Howell didn't buy it men and women are over particular candidate. And one of the things that I'd been watching for latest to see. If that gender gap. Why which would be a sign as Jeff was saying that. You know people of one gender. Women in this case where we're getting more enthusiastic about I lessen the trop and men. We're not moving in that direction also because men are moving in an actor X two and women you know Mike you and trapped at really high levels but the gender gap might not be in its. I and sell out by what I've really been seeing as I've just been kind of keeping an eye on the polls is it eat it doesn't. Click the gender gap is quite large. And theories by racial group it varies by other demographics. And it of course theories according to the poll that you're looking at Aaron. I didn't analysis. White suburban voters. We have two of our political scientist contributors. Conn writing an errant SaaS. And me found. Really striking gender gap between men and women. White men and women in the suburbs. It's 57%. Of white suburban man supporting. Ant 54%. White suburban women supporting right. And so you know. That that's quite striking. Especially because strong has been making these appeals to voters in the suburbs. About burgers the suburbs this time around. With the caveat that we'll have to see how this all looks when the election is actually over. It does look like tram is managing to hang on this man. In a lot of places where he. We spoke estimates on holidays non college different areas so long that all important it looks to me based on. Of these stories is the white women of all demographics in all areas. In all. Education levels and so on. And moved against trump and when presidents we've seen this at this it is like white women not more than it is white college graduates for example I think it I think this ship that is. If buying wins it'll be like. Women particularly but you know most black majority vote against drop so really white women sifted against. Trump is I think the story in this book enough happening in rural areas. And among non college graduates as well and white Minnesota stuck with drug and I think debt the gender gap was already being detected that may be the reasons. I am curious about this. Educational gap I know this is something that you've written are as well Perry we know that prior to the 2016 election Republicans. Reliably won a majority. College educated whites. It looks like according to elect the past month of polling Biden is waiting back room like 21. Points. And even you know Hillary Clinton won them but didn't win them overwhelmingly. So is about 21 point margin cloning just like. Largely from college educated white women. Worried it you know is that something that we can look at it just across the board in needy suburban areas urban areas we've seen a big shift in education. Well some of that dated from sale pew research senator om and note that. White voters. With a college degree have shifted a bit. More toward the Democrats in terms eight dinner filers wait there's out of college degree have shifted in the other direction more toward Republicans. And I think the data is a whole was suggests that in particular white women with a college degree. Have definitely shifted toward the Democrats and so my educated guess based on that party identification data from key research. Senator would say that a lot of that shift among white women. Is probably college educated women. More than anything so. That would that would seem to be unlikeliest explanation but of course we we can't no certainty. In other words. I think the education gap is not dead he's somewhere between sixteen looks like looking at Q data from sixteen so Hughes seems yes it. Hillary won white college grads. By a seventeen points. And they had a huge recent pull hair. Biden here by 21 that the gap but that might purely be explained that women's apparel smog and then hue and sixteen handed. Hillary. White non college grads by looks like thirty. Six. And he's winning back 26 this year so again that college so lords Biden is doing better among white people. Period but there is still he's too big east bid the Democratic Party is now winning white college grads and losing. White non college reds and this not definitely is getting GAAP is net change that much from six in this one. Although not sound like a ten point improvement amongst actually not content yes I read I think that's being Linda it's he has a big improvement yes. Yeah I think this is. It's a gate moments it just remind listeners viewers that. Some of these estimates targeted area from source the source but there does seem to be agreement that. Among voters that are white don't have a college degree that Biden has eaten into you. Trump's advantage there to some extent so there's some I would say there's debate about what's happening with white voters with college degree whether it's sort of seeing the same may be shrinking slightly growing compared to a sixteen. But I do you think that there there's some broad agreement on what's happening with white voters without a college degree that at least to some extent. Biden has cut into traps advantage and that's important because that is going to be. The largest. Chunk of the electorate if you break down white voters by education and then have other Brinker spies race or ethnicity. White voters that accounts Greer going to be the plurality of the electric so Biden. He's eating into. Terms advantage with the largest part of the electorate. About 40% of voters will be soared upwards of supposedly white at least forty rescinded immoral be white voters not to officers. I'm gonna say that president not another demographic wrinkle into blight is going on with white voters one thing I've been following EU's out what's going on with white Christians. Which is a really important group for the Republicans. Because basically what you look at religious groups like you said it's the hour. Like Christians of color and non Christian groups affiliated bowl its strongly in the democratic. Column. And white evangelical Protestants obviously want the Republicans most loyal groups. And in other white Christian so. Why not evangelical Protestants and white Catholics also have been leading Republicans in the past ten years. And so the Republican Party just look at which in. So I'll I'll have a story coming out out this out later this week that looks check out our site they're interested by. What was happening with this groups Biden has be it. Basically going after more conservative moderate Christians many of them white Christians that are making its case that light. No I'm actually the candidate they moral ended it. Act does not. Really your religious person built Fuller. Answer trying to assess whether that's working. And what I found is basically that and it doesn't seem like Theres really been any religion Trump's support among evangelical Protestants which. It's not a surprise if you've been following out there approval of the president and the restaurants where the president over the past four years. They're just really really in his column in you know. No matter what happens endemic here you know the recession and there are any of these other things they're still it's a base with him but. He has lost support our kids hoopla support relative to sixteen among white cap ex and depending on the whole you look at I you know keys leaders he's either Arab League leading among white Catholics according to pew did I was looking hat. Biden with a very near the other polls that it's not exactly clear where art year. By trump. One white Catholics quite decisive. Sixteen to the fact that certainly tossup group is not good for him. And that is it's especially bad news because of weird beat until the are over represented. Ian upper midwestern Rust Belt states think Wisconsin. Michigan Pennsylvania Ohio. They give him really bad marks on act especially compared to white evangelical Protestants. And it probably doesn't hurt also that it. I don't his is himself the white Catholic absurdity this Alex. You know. Did they click what they're frightened him the extent to which he's probably got a blue collar background but the key sorted you can. I think people did not act crown kind of can connect with him culturally and religiously. In a way that they might not been able to you with Hillary Clinton who is also Cristian by Protestant. And you know whatever the actors it certainly don't think that we can chalk it shift among Catholics. Solely or even mostly to the fact that Biden is himself a Catholic but he does seem to be doing much better this group that Clinton did. App for years used. Added dimension and nearly as some of the reasons for the shifts that we're seeing and we've talked up how many different segments of white voters. Can we say generally wide that shift has happened. Is it the corona virus pandemic or their other things that we can attribute this to reporters into the mean just you know. Trump way over performed in 2016 and it's hard to keep those margins where they work. I think some of mrs. trump is unpopular in that was the case for the rotavirus to like he needs is approval rating dis. Was lower among whites like. Even before the corona virus. He was down by six to Joseph Biden in most polls in 2019. He was downed divided in most polls before the corona virus. He was I think he'd be dead against he believes users and their sort of a similar problem a Democrat with similar views to Biden. I think I mean. Mind you the electorate is this why people have sifted. Because the in some ways because the racial lines nature of politics needs last forty years hands. Need some of the things Hillary Clinton's at about trump seem correct I think that you racism factor in the race vector. About trump has meeting that lasted it is. Cannot argue dead because people don't tend to say. Well I get around that deplorable thing was maybe not totally rock and I don't think governments say that if you really get got to talk about it you find it. The concerns about trump about his manner is and so on have maybe were worked there in sixteen or people overlook them but now they're not. I think you could also just say simply at the current virus has to be at least some part of the discussion here. Because maybe it was sort of com. If people were concerned about the way the president case and some of the things he says. And then you latch on to that dates. Pandemic that is affected soon to people's lives and slipped the death of 101000 Americans. Yeah that's that's difficult and I think a offer for people to. Today to not maybe shift attitudes perhaps adds he's ARD had about trump. If days sort of soured on him after the 26 election. Maybe happen is that he's more hardened. Because if president troubles behind in the polls to begin with earlier this year. It made it more difficult for him to have a pat an obvious patent sort of comeback. Arm once he had terrible ratings on the most important issue affecting americans' lives in the U polling is showing this is the thing that Americans care. The most about and Beers basically 40% of them approve your handling of this serious problem that's affecting. Americans' lives and that's just kind of a fundamental problem for your electoral chances. Our I wanna dig a little deeper into the cross tabs Jeffrey you mentioned when you were. Doing your overview of some of the ships that you found in comparing data between two dollars and sixteen and 20/20. That we had seen it trump improve his lot where black and Hispanic burgers and I think we've seen. Perhaps more resounding evidence that trump has improved his lot with Hispanic voters. I know that there is a little bit more I did the about how much he's improved his standing with black voters. But I'm curious you know. To what extent we have seen that's happened to what except that data is conflicting. If it's happening in particular regions are amongst a particular subset of voters like younger or older voters. What's the breakdown there. Going through that process I think what we can say is that. Trump appears to be doing slightly better among younger black voters and among black man. Among black women it's pretty similar 2016. In among older African Americans. In its pretty similar to Tony sixteen so if you're trying to assert dissect where the shift. Again not that large but slight shift is coming from I think he sorting it sounded as she groups and and I know parents heard about this subs I definitely hand it to talk about this. But I do note that some of this may come down to you mom. Sort of black voters. Younger black voters not being and is tied in with the Democratic Party nod is committed to Democratic Party as older black voters in terms eight identify. Mom and black women of course are. Basically the most democratic part of the electorate in terms of their their partisan leanings and so to see them not really move very much compared 2016 is this really not surprise. Said that I think it's clear here may be why we're seeing some. Looks like. Will. Just looking at some Q did to me it looks like. We'll end up around 10% of black voters will vote for trump which is sort of we're reading in for a long time. And even sort of the Republican numbers in order around ten. The team and number I've seen some 28 in some 35 and I Baghdad. And when you get to like Florida does think it's worth noting that. Florida and Texas. Latinos in those days in the be more conservative than the bad. Even Indian in and save more in Florida than in. Like you know what Cubans are there more Cubans in Florida cubism or conservatives in within these groups at a gets worked. It's like a hard adding Gary simplistic discussion but I think so zone in terms of the black part we look at some data from some pollsters. Polls are all liquor called the African American research collaborative with Dave down was. Black voters over 45 to needy vary positive at the Democratic Party the Democrats in congress. Obama Joseph Biden really positive about the and black voters under forty I have more skeptical of the government were skeptical that the government's effective more sort of disaffected from politics. This habit of Democratic Party more open to the idea that anything of the questions were long lines. Do you you know people would read its Frontline your racist to still be open to the idea that they should before noon. Just try something different among incidentally younger Cray. Of black voters again we're talking up small numbers here are talking about he might win 12% under 45 and 6% over according. Among black new but it's amusing to note bullets he knows the raise interest in only because trump has been a lot of work and his campaign hands trying you. Can deal supports in terms of Latinos in Florida in particular if you think it is Cuba policy he's been very anti Castro regime. In the units and rolled back Obama's policies were more you know wars more positive vacuum software Cuba so. That's right and am really looking at these Florida Latino. Numbers and they can have bounced around eleven deaths in Biden isn't losing Florida. They'll be when democracy story but I wouldn't be shocked because acting. Chavez and a good job courting Latinos in the war. The board about Latinos to. This is a group where it's not just at tram has sort of meet active overtures to use specific parts the Latino population make. An enthusiastic about potentially voting for him this group where I just hasn't. Done a great job. Key aging you know even the Tina Democrats in the democratic primary. I was writing about this months ago. When the primary was moving through the primaries are winning western states at Bernie Sanders was the one. Who had. Really eat meat and investment units are organizing in communities outlast. And really made a big difference for him. And don't think Harry's reasoning really important clean that the Tito's are not a monolith. And then when you talk about Latino voters in places slate. Arizona or Nevada or California they tents to sort of the more democratically general. I'm more likely to be Mexican American man. I and that of course I'm Cubans and Puerto Ricans. On east coaster flirting particular Anthony if different. Ideological profile but in general I mean what I've seen in and the polls have bounced around a little bit on this is sort of similar from like Biden. And it underperforming Hillary Clinton a little bit among Latinos overall suit you know me be running around equal with Hillary Clinton at sixteen but that of course Hillary Clinton didn't do as well among Latinos and sixteen has acted and twelve. I. And in general I think this is just a group that he is he clean happens. You know maybe not invested as much time in reaching. I. It's just seems to EU you know especially. Specifically into communities out out west like he just he's not. Isn't connected with them. As well throughout this campaign. I act it's you know it does seem to be showing up as a potential weakness for him a on the other hand you know one thing net net. I wrote about it peace without injury case last month. Is that the gender gap that we've seen. It would tighten not a lot among white women. That. There has also been opening up among Latinos and I don't think there's anything lake. Released that sold its happening among Latinos in particular with the standard Catholic I don't think you know. They're sort of they're just like their rotors like everyone else we're seeing this gender gap everywhere else is seeing among Latinos. But what I've seen is. You know I think we could see that gender gap opened up to you and I you know many of these these people looking at that's recipe board trop. I might be more likely to man. End women leaning toward. One other complicating factor in trying to get a read on their voting preferences. Is not only the facts that. They are not a monolith. It's also that many of them speak Spanish is a first language and so one of the challenges from pollsters and four's survey organizations trying to get a read on their preferences that. If they don't have enough interviews in Spanish or any at all that may actually contribute to. May be getting a misreading or not a full reading of just what the attitudes are among Hispanic voters so that's another thing I think listeners should keep in mind. I'm is that that's just a major complication there and that exists for other groups like Asian Americans as well obviously not a monolith that all of not the black there's a monolith either I think Biden made a mistake basically saying that. Earlier in the campaign but I think in terms of language. It's particularly an area I think where you can concede problems if you don't have interviewers are speaking. The first language for many voters that pathetic group. I'm so for Asian Americans is also the case says that they don't form nearly as large. A chunk of the electorate say Hispanics and a lot of Hispanics speak Spanish is a first language. And are probably not going to talk to an English only interview. Yeah so I think someone the themes. That are taken away from why we've seen movement amongst voters of color is. That the trends that we've already seen exist in terms of gender animals even seen in terms of college education white. Maurer Latino women graduate from college were black women rhetoric from college as well. And so there is even just an educational divide as well as be gender divide that exists across the electorate. I'm curious if we have an answer as to why this is the case you know why a trump kind of exaggerates this educational divide across all you know. Segments of American life why the gender divide gap is exaggerated. You know we could talk a lot about the shifts and movements but I'd sure a lot of people are listening speaking walking wily wise a all of this happening and maybe sometimes it seems obvious but. We might as well try to spell out. And so the black so look at the Q did it in sixteen black community and 14%. Work for trump and Q has an asterisk for black woman to try suggesting the numbers close to zero. So in essence fourteen is began I think that I don't I'm not sure that there's been a sit there every maybe jet disagrees anti black. You black woman known corporate trumps and you luck and I don't think there's. Much of a sit there do you think I mean that's kind of where I would. State indeed is not totally clear to me and I would be a nap and I'm hesitant to say. Black canyon like trump because he does these three things as opposed saying black men are more conservative Edmund. Along. Now I agree with that. That sentiment in terms tried to figure out what what exactly is motivating. Voters. I think we've known for a long time that many general. Arm or right leaning in one. I'm and so something about truck may be exacerbating that divide. Which goes back to a number of different things that mean of course people think about the issue like abortion but that actually. Probably isn't really what's going on I think what's it comes down Tuesday. Issues that the Democratic Party tends to pull more favorably on. Such as health care Republicans and Republicans are more likely to pull utterly comes to security issues. Are more likely to affect attitudes of of women that's an issue is important and with Republicans. Me and maybe more since security issues Spanish initial order for the GOP so. You know it's it's hard to peg down exactly. What's the source of every single aspect of why some of these gaps in education gender. By those sorts there sort of the reasons why you see. Or you can at least see a few of those species speed be part of why it is axis. I mean what sense describing. Is part of the reason that we have a gender gap at all. I mean you know this is a trend that we've been seeing unfold in American politics over several caves we're men and women are increasingly voting differently from each other acting used to be the case. You can see you Lee clear turning point in the 1980 election when suddenly this thing called a gender gap yours. And it's because. You know wasn't that like. Men and women were thinking exactly the same way about politics prior to 1980 that the parties realigned. In ways that drew the women true women toward the Democrats and men toward the Republicans. Are going on there it's kind of realignment away from the Democratic Party especially white men generally. Complicated issue. One of the things that happen. I see teen act in covering the gender gap apple. Her past four years. Used it women in general and they're beat caveats to dance because partisanship. Really shapes the waved at people think about race gender issues. But sort of when you compare Republican and Republican. And democratic meant democratic and women tend to just be more progressive. Racial issues or way the year lake. They tend to be less racist according to that metrics that political scientists used as he scored lower in. Racial resentment I am and the same goes for sexes. So. When you have a candidate like trump. Who. Especially. You know with his immigration policy. We with so many other aspects of his presidency he's this kind of activated. People's. Prejudices. And then also people's reactions. To this prejudices. In so many different ways. I. You know obviously I can't say that is exactly why you're seeing gender app opening up even more. I have to believe it has to deal with especially. Seeing. Among. Tends TU. Earl of all those groups school were the lowest are measures plate. Gender and lower racial resentment. That those are the people. That more women are moving in to act. Space of identifying as Democrats in that they're the ones who work really. Rejecting. That that's an. It seems like you know it it's an explanation that that we see in the act and it also it just makes sense having lived through the passport yours. I think it well then racial edits these points you made. Is so important or seeing which I think knicks beat you might week up in. Seeded you know I bibles that he's gonna win sort of like us they like Wisconsin which is very heavily white. But east billions but it's gonna be heartened to win Georgia and Texas. North Carolina going to be our Florida's any clothes. In the differences those states in the midwest have very few white evangelicals want and that's an important seasons out of a lot of lightning has helped Seaway dock and out. White people with college degrees when you when they're also evangelical. That's a very conservative group in this Georgia and Texas. And if nothing is little that is all we have always racial attitudes scores and there's debate about how you call them what you asked basically. You know white people in this Al I would say the polite residents there they're skeptical of systemic racism and solutions to its. And so when you get to a place like Georgia is very suburban and has a lot of white college graduates but I don't but the Atlanta area's gonna be. Once again outside of Atlanta itself in these Atlanta suburbs. Our suburbs there were in some ways founded because of racial tension where white people moved away from the black center of an Atlanta proper so. Those suburbs of Atlanta are going to be very challenging place for binds that we in. With the with the white voters even the ones who have college degrees and so on because that did this sort of racial attitudes. Scores those people are going to be. Much different than a white voters outside of like Philadelphia. And so that's kind of what I'm watching as he has like this idea of the Democrats win Georgia and Texas particularly. And North Carolina requires. Him to sort of like. Run up the score with minorities and in acting community have to have some high number of white college graduates whom. Bode Republican and maybe attended evangelical church some numbers and we'll have to vote. For the democratic candidate and Ambrose skeptical. Yet I think that's borne out when you look at state by state polling is that Biden. Yes he's nationally he's improved somewhat with white voters we are more likely to see that. Across the industrial midwest and northeast and you are to see that the south. And even if Biden does manage when a state like Texas or Georgia. Com he will have to improve among white voters compared Clinton to do that but we're not gonna talk BC you know massive swings among white voters toward. Replied in the south I mean I don't eagerness has seen massive swings anywhere. But. I think you're more likely to see more substantial shifts among white voters. In a place like Wisconsin and you are in place Georgia so it's it's. Just about just how much do you small movements in the margins just help you or this small movements they'll still be small but. Just how small. Yet Biden's gaining in Texas. It is among white voters straw 62. Biden's third. Very similar in Georgia. White voters with college degrees trump 54. Item 38 white what does duck because reason Texas is accord is he in a poll. Trump 69. Biden 25 those numbers are much more an aero in Michigan and Wisconsin and so that's definitely in other words like we talk about white voters with degrees but those are. That's to here groups that are not you know not a monolith of white voters without degrees in mean. Michigan California. And Georgia might of them will be a different planets. Yeah I think that's important to keep in mind and so wrapping up here we've talked a little bit about what we might expects coming out of next Tuesday. Are there any other Peter. After 2000 succeed we talked so much about this educational divide. Do you have any includes about what sort of trends might be the lessons learned from from this election. Before it happens. So I think we talked about the racial part in. There hasn't been need to act last trump among men you know like trump did not have many black voters saloons but he sort of kept the group. The Latino voters he had was up 30% he's kept them so goes the point there. Is worth thinking about acting so the assumption is being that. Obviously if a person says controversial racial things that will turn our minority voters in particular. I would argue the last four years suggests that. Mean did there's a certain number of minorities who have more conservative views on race it was is in particular. And what trump is really that has turned white people with some of his relievers rich abuse not people of color Moriarty. What color are conservative I've not seen their views on the head. In part because they were there to. It looks like from all data I can see like a nice and changes when a guy was right about is this is not clear that. Homily again sort of competent story. I think the pick of Kabul Harris was more a game reward. To black voters. Further loyalty to the Democratic Party in the past into this helping Biden begin. There's not a lot of evidence that Pamela Harris is like. Improve being Biden's performance among. Black people looking part of his Biden was already very popular and was India's appointment. You can be a white politician and be very popular among black people and is now on this list is that he black Alderson will always be. More popular than named Michael is also a similar views. In terms of the college GAAP. It looks like it's me Dina I'm a little bit in Nittany go to a lot of bankers but it's still really really large it looks like this. White college white non college yep will meet with us for a while as. And is kind of this sort of I would argue bad for democracy. Yet this being where it's like you and you know where it's easy it's not clear to needed. Education should be this did fire in the leak it is sort of goes to. Cultural attitudes acting as opposed. Count policy I think it's a bad being that looks like dead yet is going. Continues. Ends. All the women and curious about as it looks like Georgia and Texas are closer. Now because of demographic trends like the number of black the number of non white and what are people of color in Georgia and Texas is going up. But the shift we're seeing right now is really white voters are moving against the Republicans like that you might we get and when he 22 were won between war. And the Republicans are in the favorites clearly in Georgia Texas because. It's not a demographic story happening in the Sunbelt writing a really is a the white majority of those electorates in his anti trumpet I don't know what their entire Republican yet. So it's hard to predict. Surprise by a week from now. By. Here but I think I mean anything I'm watching hazard that act he. Might use. Between. Looks eight. Why does. The board support. Because they think you talk that the gender gap there's this tendency. At that it's true that white women in particular. Tina's seem to their their movement. It has the big story. But the fact that men ours he. With two for the most part is also part story. It's good reporting on. Howl unit has this kind. You know are masculine and stick it appears appeals team. More traditionalist. And includes. Tina and that includes. Inland. Now I ain't so I think it's important to make sure that we're thinking ballot. Not just what's happening with women that actually gender part of the gender gap. It's triumph does manage to hang on TU. The significant weight. Kerry's ballot. That is also are really tele being politics going forward. It is used and that we're seeing it is men and women continuing to. Though increasingly differently for each other and to think about politics differently to air it out. Different issue priorities. That the parties to be doing different things. That's a big deal. And that's something that I think we could very well. It after next Tuesday it. T for. Comment from. And how much it is notes at this lower. General real. Party lines between. So I'm just curious end. And use. Of. Our ball as a million mansion we will have much much more data a week from now and we rule begins on packet for everyone. And it makes sense of this election and essentially is ongoing as we speak. But for now take you Perry Emilia and Jasper talked to him. Galen if they scale. My name is gallantry Tony child is in the virtual control room you can get in touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com. You can also of course treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show Vivus a rating or reviewed apple podcast store or tell someone about us. You can also subscribe doesn't YouTube. Thanks for listening and policies. And the.

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