FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: What’s driving Elizabeth Warren’s comeback?

The FiveThirtyEight team discusses Elizabeth Warren's electability and the conversation around mass shootings two weeks after the events in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio.
53:45 | 08/20/19

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: What’s driving Elizabeth Warren’s comeback?
Hello and welcome to the fight. On this edition we're gonna talk about. Elizabeth Warren's tension in the polls are staying power how she got there and what the path potentially towards the nomination or an eventual loss might look like. Were also gonna talk about the aftermath of the two mass shootings two weeks ago when an El Paso, Texas and the other in Dayton Ohio. And whether or not the conversation about guns and white nationalist terrorism. Has changed you're watching the 530 politics podcast on ABC news lie so Warren has been in second place in the real clear politics average national primary polls for a little over a week now. It's the first time that she's cleaned that spot apart from a one day blip back in July its overtook senator Bernie Sanders to death. Warren is now calling around 70% to Biden's thirty and Sanders 16%. In those national averages. And as some measure of the conventional wisdom a week ago Warren overtook Biden as the likely to win the nomination according to betting markets on predict it. It was just a temple months ago that Warren was polling fifth or sixth nationally with numbers in the mid single digits. And following the backlash to the release of her DNA test she seemed like a long shot so Hewlett me to talk about how Warren meet her comeback. And more are staying power of books like art senior politics writer climb on Perrier. And also winners as managing editor Mike equipment and the and joining us from local Kentucky is senior writer Perry bacon junior area. The likewise Antony is out tonight. Thumb but also later in this are we are going to take stock of how the conversations about mass shootings and white nationalist terrorism. Have developed in the two weeks since the shootings in L passer and but let's begin we have Warren and perhaps we can think of this as. An updated theory of the case like we did Wear and candidates a regionally got in the race so Claire for starters. How do you think about how war in need her comeback from fifth or sixth in the polls nationally. So all kind of crib from a very good piece by Walter Shapiro in the new republic did profile of Warren. And he basically is talking about this this old tired of the cursor to gradually taking up in the polls. And he's saying you know what changed you know in the movie version of this how would it play out. And is the answer is that nothing really changed she's sort of been doing the same exact thing the entire time and it sort of seems like. Slow and steady wins the race kind of kind of thing not literally but Sloan said he ticks up in the polls and overtakes the second. On the leaderboard at four polling average against the 530 parlance. I think two to insert more fulsome lean she is over. A period of several months basically since she launched. Kind of built an identity that is. Surrounded by a policy plans now did you know there's there's like this whole mean the school significant penis is sort of trying to use of that either planned for that she's teacher Thomas stopped. Now if you read some of the plans are more detailed and others. But they are all out there and you know 2000 to 2500 words on medium. NC can read them and so the idea is. She sort of presenting ourselves and herself as eminently prepared to govern I the vision of this all the stuff and she is caught on among. Like essentially Hillary Clinton voters I would say a democratic primary electorate like. A surprising number. Like. Professional urban nights Ehrlich college educated white people which. Immediately the readership of the New York Times and columnists and it's your time so there's a certain elect. I would call it word of mouth energy that the little bit of a trickle down from from the top. Is that it's got a good kick off and yet it is a good kick off an angry with all of it except I do you think. I do think. There is a distinction between warrants voters and Clinton voters and there's overlap that there but as you would expect with claims unit shoes pulling out like. Whatever 60% the poll some Warren has you know fifteen to 20%. Warrant support is much more limited to. Very liberal all YE. Educated. Urban and a religiously unaffiliated. Than Clinton's support was Clinton's support was a little more diverse. Sharon any guess I guess. Yes I mean in part a two person primary field verses are of course you have vapors in primary field and I guess I say. Clinton voters to warn voters because that's a prop because ward is so. Has so much in common policy licensee enters I think it's just notable to say that that she is as much as she is. The economic candidate she's an identity candidate for certain kind of Democrat that wants. That will white white person vision America to them she sort of yes she's a woman. But she's like they they ran away and Italy lately before you can either go with what she won the primary. Or Hugo as well she and and she won popular. You don't say popular college but Warren kind of combines like. All the populism of Bernie I don't know that there's a certain Lech statements I think that a lot of Democrats seem to. Be starting to feel with war and that to me feels a little bit like he's the kind of people who shunned Bernie Sanders but now a person who. Hold a lot of his politics is being embraced them. I I agree with that and actually it's notable weak we ran a piece last week that showed that Warren is actually from if you look at who people voted for in 26 team. Barn is actually drawn her support equally. From Bernie voters in 2016 Clinton voters and and 2016. Which I think is notable as you say a because she has so much policy similarity. With army it suggest this other thing going on with are drawn from Clinton voters. I think is interesting that you describe her as. Feeling safe to some bubonic we can get more into you know what doubts people may have or whether they really do think she is safe in out of a primary or the general Bob before gets about. Perry can you weigh in here on. How Elizabeth Warren has kind of risen steadily from fifth or sixth nationally now to second. She actually had a really. This campaign should his usual Lowell fire her legs so yeah to campaign for you know more than a year so hurt and you. I'm Angela use of the law as the law ended each week and roll out of student Willa client. Don't get America happens and thus the plan's ability it's really well into the campaign and he compared -- no I can't campaign basically I'm electable. You can only say that one definitive retains. Yeah if you see weighty campaign. Colin air campaign has I don't let it not let it that's sort. Of people not you. Do you think that this is somewhat of art were version to the mean in the sense that this is where we would have expected her to be all along without the negative coverage and backlash surrounding the DNA tasked. Or is this something totally different like this is a strong campaign. Working its way up through the polls and it's not when she was stripper sex it wasn't just about the DNA thing that's really where she was naturally and she's progressed cents. Oh I don't know I mean it. I thought an interesting thing that got Walters piece pointed out was that they see. And I kind of forgotten this with you we talk a lot about how she made this announcement about listen we're not gonna take big fundraising. At big donors dollars and her had a thought finance quit. And she really spent a lot in the first couple of months in early states kind of building up or like an organization. Them. And airline and that pieces well you can't or his linemen pieces like you can build up an organization and due to media after which she can't have. Months long organization. Whenever you need their some things that need to comment to place first so maybe it's a sense of like Elliott have kind of been. Plugging in chugging the whole time and how to a vision of what this is going to be idea thinks though. There. Their initial stumbles with the native American DNA test. Did ally a certain blind spot of the candidate and probably her inner circle witches. Not as dumb person not a public with it necessarily but they seem to course cracked pretty quickly that all think speaking at skip. Yeah I think that trade I think. I think a lot of it is just kind of refers into the mean I'm if you remember when she was languishing in the sink single most single digits in the polls we were all sitting here being like we have Eisen chief doing batter I'm. Even be dented the MS DNA tests controversy. The other part I do you think has what Perry said which issues and Emma Claire adjustment from which she is on a related campaign I'm. It's been substantive I think she's she's been Smart about organizing in early states having that infrastructure. The other thing though is. She's caught some breaks in terms of who else has struggled. So one Bernie I think has I think it's safe to say the campaign for Bernie. Hasn't gone as well as they probably hoped. Just in terms. He starts off really high name recognition and an item pre meaningful support in the Paul's. That's support that's a little bit. He's kind of feels a little bit I think like that re run of 26 team. Not a lot of new notes from warrant capitalizes on that data or work struggles tiles that thing happen. And it inherently good for warrant in the sense is the white college educated liberal yeah exactly served here if your if year. Trying to target. At least that's the first step the tennis super educated. Super liberal sect white segment of the Democratic Party. The other candidates going for that doing portly helps you right. You can't even put the judge the fact that the Buddha judge surge Tenet has tapered off a bed I think that's helped hurt him. The Monica thing the other candidates had underperformed I do think warrant. But it had a great must go period case warrant and a fumble and a seat could grow electability you know based collectibles is he's the bullet and Lucas should that you're running as the than. I collect video. Booker T and Harris are all trying to run the Obama campaign in 2008 and now I'm not sins are. I don't care and it earning an exciting and you think this. This strategy Vietnam war in appearance and open and he so why aren't an opening horror on the policy based. You know paying the tissues ready or people who were ten don't really not. The thing and invited. To the right. Yeah. I think that's that's that makes a lot of sense because there is that sort of Inco it like I'm gonna make a soaring speech and do things and then there's there's Biden who does to say like. I'm good friends with Barack. And also you know me and and she is simulate she has talked to warrants credit. Got into electoral politics very recently by her brand was always incredibly specific I mean think about her first kind of national viral moment. I think it was it was this video of her. Doing that Adam. Very small. In someone's house speech about. If you're wealthy in America like you used our roads you did all these things like you didn't get rich by yourself and I do think she has a little bit of that. God forbid I uses to describe politician but spoke cnet's rightly see there is and by the way she plays it up. To the nth degree on the trail. Her. Her stump speech is. A hoax. Yeah. Who perhaps. Any it's very folksy. Yet. I think that's kind of authentic to who she is I mean I've talked about this with with friends before about. The way she presents herself. Like she quite different from a lot of female politician let's just look at like Harris Gillibrand and Klobuchar all dress. In the that the confining tailoring of the of the professional one and right for lack of better words she dresses. Sharp suits curls in fact terrace sidebar. There's a certain public interest in little thing she has with like she always wears pearls because Simon and relative broader pearls back public relations wears pearls because pearls are what you Wear. When you're in public life you want to look pretty but you don't want to be distracting anyway. The war and wears. Blue sweaters and when she goes on the debate stage she kind of wears her own version of like a suit jacket that's not quite the suit jacket that other women who act. She's but she kind of looks like. Your mom's friend to wears either Eileen Fisher something more down market and at regional. Yeah and it's kind of this. That's probably how your grandma amount entrances and I think that's sort of to her strength and I would. Should also note that after we recorded our podcast last week a video of Warren went viral or running up onstage in New Hampshire and I saw several people come a country like a clear pointed that out last week that there. The older candidates are always trying to show themselves are running and being active in order to Sera the you know may think he's been there not too old to be president it does. As it Elizabeth Warren eight and older woman. Is proving like this is why women live longer than men because her sister just eyed and others that there is just like yes she is projecting like. I'm on your spry Graham. So we have described. Where Elizabeth Warren is right now but of course she is still. In second place and barely and second place kind of just got there. You know Biden is still more than ten it's out of her in the national polling averages. And when you look at war in support of your party described its very white. It's very college educated it's a very liberal it's very one part of the Democratic Party. So how does she get from here to there and that's kind of the question that we asked when a lot of these candidates got in the race which was. What's their theories for the case how do they win the nomination so Perry. What do you see what would have to happen from here for war and to become the democratic. Well to see it in terms states. And I could see very clearly does she could win Iowa because she there is dead white liberal base in Iowa exists for her to could win New Hampshire and other Weis base. There are educated and they're near receive lives IAE around. And then from there if she could windows or Bremer is not at all wholly or the leaks. Yeah I think it becomes questionable I don't think she didn't do well I think you struggles a lot of them more conservative voters and Americans are going to be more minor repair materials like. If you win those first two primaries that you filmed in common source grow our base in east endorsements. Today. Yet he quits courtesy Gruber based outside of what's described as he answers some early wins. Yes like potentially see the war in doing kind of well in Nevada. Likes like getting media biggie a big union endorsement because she speaks a language of unions. Her having an organized team on the grounds turning people out those caucuses back to be good and then you could get momentum I grew apparently there's a lot of votes in the south. And she probably are isn't gonna get those that she could win a few. Super choose one of the two super Tuesday's you know she could get some of those Midwestern State I can see her winning Michigan means standard won Michigan in. Adam 2016 who's not to say that she what she couldn't win at a thing like that you could see her. Making her way through Oklahoma arts and it you know just states where. Where we don't think about that their votes hiding and I actually think to her. Credit acts a lot of candidates credits the UR start you are seeing them say I'm campaigning here in. Mississippi or Alabama and Dominic come back right like the idea that touched they are. Warren as a as the candidate as a white candidate and the current can like white college educated people is Rhea is is cognizant of the fact that. She it would. Black support or outreach like that is an important part of the of the democratic collection. Why not just embarrassing but also perhaps not viable her dinner candidacy effort to win the nomination so. We talked about maybe a strategy in terms are just the sequence of primaries. But where does she actually have upside in terms of voters like who could she which other candidates could she gain support from if they faltered you know. Like his even where she is now she still wouldn't win candidate our caucus who gets hurt. Who whose cars does she get. My fault I mean so she. OK so one there is a share of buy it in supporters. Who are. Mostly with Biden now just because they think he's the most electable so if warrant wins Iowa New Hampshire. He would imagine. All of a sudden she seems a lot more electable is winning election ends. You know she picks up let's say a handful percentage points from from Biden right. Sanders. Has been sort of like. Hovering at around I don't know what what you're gonna like thirteen 14:15%. Am in national Paul's. You know if he is stuck there all the way up until Ohio what but what does he do. I mean do you think there's any circumstance in which. Elizabeth Warren could make the argument to use Sanders if you don't drop out Biden will Windsor view believing her claws turning yeah and what that be would that be convincing to Bernie Sanders. I don't think. Totally possible and as an endorsed large she. Yeah and pilotless. Yet cost it out that happens it's only. After. March. That's just read and that's more reading and select. The psychology of Bernie see Enders asses. A true believer in news. Cingular bought and earn an idol I mean they're all this week this is not collects the slack Bernie I don't know her well yeah believers in themselves and let her. But Carlo crates like we also have the template of 26. As some sort of indication of how. Bernie might. Make a decision which is to say it like he. Mean he was a little likely to the whistle kind of guy so I don't know I don't know what it. And here's another way to thing about it is what you know what demographic characteristics. Does Moran and up over index with right now and how could she. Could she improve her support among the opposite of that and other words. Right now. While our and it does disproportionately well with. Very liberal voters and when you go to somewhat liberal she does worse when you go to moderate conservative she's this way works. Could you see her doing a little bit better with somewhat liberal voters. Maybe but she's really liberal you know I don't so I think that'll be tough let alone moderate conservative sorry and then you know the look at rates right she does really well she does disproportional well with white voters. Worse with block voters. Where's with Hispanic voters. How could she reverse that. That's hard to see to honestly it's the same problem Bernie had the one area where right where I can imagine it happening mart. And am remember that these demographic groups all overlap rates of this actually is in a perfect way to think about it but. She over index as of right now whip. Very well educated voters. But you could imagine if she doesn't write her kind of populist. Structural change message resonating. Win it. Voters without a college education voters who just have a high school degree in the same way Trump's right am. Populist message did still that it it is a little bit of of the of the Bernie problem. The only other thing I'd say it is if you if you look at like how it this is this a result from really interest in pew report came out am. But right now the support I can and it is it's cheaper differentiated by gender. In other words it's not like there's not a cannon that's doing really map well among women arm and relative to one another. And I'm curious to see if that stays the same art org or changes depending on how the field to win atlas. I think I think the point about Warren. I don't. Frankly ever see her ex selling or competing with Geithner Harris. Like like parents are predicted with black voters in the south. But I do you think she has an opportunity to win over. Moderate white voters and to make. To make an argument that in the general election she could use something to appeal to more moderate people. And what I think is interest and interpret campaign hasn't hasn't done more. Is play up the fact that she used to be a Republican play up the fact that. She took a little bit of a winding road to get to her liberal positions. She in fact it almost like a full lifetime to get to those positions and I think that that's actually it's less of a neat narrative then. Single working mother which she is which is currently sort of the threat of her. Her stump speech grew up in you know household teetering on the edge of the middle class and poverty. But I think that idea that she was a Republican for much of her adult life is very compelling. If you wanna win over those more moderate voters and I think this is where some of the lake. The weird how. Women and men. Are perceived. When they when they try to do populism is really interesting because. While Warren grew up super middle class and spent most for life as an as a Republican she sort of reads as. Woman Harvard professor where's Joseph Biden who has been. Senator since he was thirty. Am you know has been in the national spotlight for a long time is still Scranton Joseph a lot of people's eyes middle class joke and so it is it's just a little bit of a different AM. Surveillance on those two things. On I wanna read a quote actually from. From caused Henry Olsen in the Washington Post and see where you're if you think this is right regarding U Perry. He wrote. Warren's tactics so far more in common with those of evangelical religious right Republican candidates then went eventual nominees the that was meant Mike Huckabee Rick Santorum and Ted crews used strong support from a large party faction twin early -- of other candidates with broader base support. But they each lost when the race winnowed down to the final stage because the factors that earned them support from the religious right alienated them from the parties silent. Majority Perry TU does that sound like war in and perhaps. On an argument for why she. Wouldn't go on to win the nomination. Room. I am not quite any name I don't. I don't take him. I guess the idea of using college student voters democratic part of your life evangelicals are important I don't totally see it away but it. I guess what I will say it is. On Buchanan people white. What we're Collins agrees limited and its third of the democratic voters Hillary I think when he took place warrant goes so go to our. Allen disputed people who are not white. The nets are Democratic Party Daniel alarm but that's one place. Of a connection is that at least the Abrams out and exceed outs Biden vs. Anwar and one of the endorsed. Lauren over and over 89 and wonder some more elected officials is an elected officials people who prominence endorse warrant down the line. Is we didn't let Lucille narrowly. JC MO yeah. Sanders Clinton yep so be in the war. We're narrow yet that's not. So it's usually seek yet so who. I think the others need talking about getting a prominent. Politicians and surrogates of color in certain states would be powerful her for her. She looked people have made a lot of sort of like in the inside B spouse baseball stuff about. Oh would she choose Castro as a running mate they seem kind of chummy seem kind public. Like the state complemented each other publicly so the idea that. She couldn't you know someone like that dropping out endorsing her you know like that if you're playing back kind of game are getting certain prominent. May years like conflict injured Gil that endorsement will will matter I think when it comes when it when it happens like they're people like that around the country. Who could can basically like lent her credibility sort of like. To be a little bit Adam. Frank about it kind of do you what Obama does for Biden which is sort of lends Elizabeth Warren like more. Reach in minority communities in more credibility. Yeah I agree with that I should also say in this to slightly correct what I said earlier. In that pew poll I'm and I think this goes to the Castro point you know guar and did best among white voters like I said. She got 20% first choice support. But she shouldn't do that much worse among Hispanic foreigners she got 14%. Of their first. First tree support she got 4% among them among black voters. So maybe maybe that suggest that Hispanic voters. Our our illogical sort of like Macs that for her. Which overlapped with what Perry said about college educated non white voters did thing though. And I think diskette that clearest point and it's it it's a key advantage warrant has over Bernie even know where Rick talk man I'd like. In some ways to apt this team. Problem terms of how they build out their coalition. I do you think it's more likely as Claire said that Warren can get at least. Endorsements. Dan Sanders. Has been able to or will be able to it for whatever reason she's just. I mean there are lot of reasons but she's just condom more part. Of the establishment. And that's RM I'm preminger but the lasting out say to that point about. Is the kind of very liberal college educated white section Democratic Party akin to the evangelical section. Republican Party and therefore is one of factional candidate in the and its inform us. I think diskette that accomplishment I think on the podcast last week I'm. About Iowa right. Iowa in both parties is defined by those factions right for her republic and evangelicals. For. Democrats. Very liberal white voters. And yeah that. I was been predicted in the Democratic Party and not predicted in the Republican Party and I think that's. And why is a complicated question both for what whatever the reason it does suggest that the relationship between those factions and the larger party. Is different. Between the two parties. Perry has Elizabeth Warren has gained steadily in the polls does it seem like concerns are a quarter core electability have subsided. At all. I don't see I mean I read these polls say more people and she's electable in the ago I agree on boats I don't consider dubious about them alive and I know we're here. Though that if you ask regular people and you go to sell out tomorrow and people that are Eduardo Herrera within me. Are you are you insane we just lots Hillary lose in rejecting the within he would win as a really healing among Democrats I think that's where I. Is more about her ideology or hurt and gender at that's. Questions I think it's much Apple's well as a big. People say or ideology. Because that state to study it and don't that is not eat that it few actual voters. And they don't know I don't know. I think we underestimate. The truly pessimistic streak running through the democratic primary electorate in general. Just the idea of people not. Voting and a silly for what they want in their heart of hearts. But what their brain tells them they should do because they're sort of trying to seek out what other people and yes I mean I think. Yeah there's dish just a lot of pessimism about who can win and where America is right now. After Hillary Clinton after. Obama's presidency what at this point can we as what do the numbers tell us about how. People view warns electability. They view RS as not as electable as as people like Biden are even. Or even Mike Byrne at Bernie's viewed as more electable memoirs yeah. And I think I mean we actually haven't talked is I think in part because there's. Lots of likely this summer has been that the summer of that racial lie extra mark wonder how realizing it like they've been a lot of talk about race Wright and Joseph Biden. And Harrison barker and how they're going after Joseph Biden's. And support the black community and we I think with the talked about sexism Carlisle. But to go that's the idea of electability like. Yes click. Member 2016 like a lot of people there was there was a lot of ever amount sexism and Mike. Odd not GM from all the dudes who follow us on Twitter I got public wars the numbers on the conflict while you can't see. You can't applied numbers to sexism everywhere some of the dislike lies deep in your hearts but. Also like but there is but this is not a crazy thing to think that like some of the electability tension surrounding. Elizabeth Warren have to do like she talks she talks kind of an online and she reminds him I teach the people do you. But people listen to as podcast that's sounds crazy but people sit at stopping people feel that stuff so. But just put some numbers about Gayle and asked am. A U good survey asked people to select each candidate they felt could be trump. And why are in was. Ranked second via. Behind Biden far behind by 661%. Of people picked Biden 46% picked Juarez and thank him Harrison Sanders. 43%. And it was a survey in which you could just mark whoever you thought I may you can pick as manager gets you off. And NA a Monmouth poll from June and asked people to assign a number now from zero to attend each candidates electability. And Warren place bird at six point four. Time. Behind -- in at seven point one and Sanders at six point five now. I think a lot of that Perry's point it's just site. Asked her support has grown in the polls first was support there's more people I think are inclined to. Answer positively. On warrants behalf in other poll questions such a disease. But look like. And this is such a tricky conversation but like we know that all else being a fall. On average. Candidates further from the ideological center to have more trouble and John are all elections. Am. That's just true you know will it apply to warrant if she's the nominee and to when he twining I don't know you know. We also know that. As Claire just said. There's a deep sexism within this country that manifests itself in a lot of ways now studies show that when women run. Day. Dave win. At at a rate equal with Matt Wright and similar conditions am. But all those studies are. Costs house races and senate races in gubernatorial races and I think there are reasons says. Ten suspect. That running for president is different. M. But it's very hard to predict how how that wolf play out in fact it's hard enough to predict how that we'll play out. That like I don't you know with the probably safest best is not to make a bunch of assumptions. About who is electable one and who is and I don't think we know. When you look at two dozen sixteen of course Hillary Clinton won that nomination relatively easily and came very very close to winning the presidency. Answer to take all of nine from and she was you know highly historically just like its or to take also that information and NC there's no way. Deals like kind of over emphasizing. One part of the data and oh allowing it to the data despite all know absolutely. I think this is so I and other issues which is that. There is a divided the Democratic Party between its so that Linda left in his left since. Michael Bloomberg does not want why aren't we and yeah does not agree or at least you. How old he stayed until. My guess is he makes you elect a little. Of these tyrants added isn't real war between the an audible Dell warranty. Don't want we have so it will lead to be some of them are very easily O. And editor. And in and knows her. She's. You know real problem she wins Iowa and the two that. There's a certain part of our do you endorse anybody else who standing there tenacious wind same way Dan acidity. And he's desperate. The Anwar but yet he problems in recent every black in America who's elected it is endorsed Hillary Clinton's day in. The does not light. And we are usually occur Harris. Can you can she win the democratic primary without. Making at least some emirates with black voters. Know right. Averages. And economics was older than I mean much further on what twenty by the electorate so yes this year is deceased yet due to us here and lose. Flights without degrees in black voters yeah this is what's doing ma'am. I think you're right Perry that like numerically sure she took the two together coalition that gets our borrow 50%. You know combining very liberal white voters educate college educated white voters but let's say some non college white voters lets it some Hispanic voters. I'm but voters are such an important part of the constituencies. That I did you know how. I do think as I said earlier one advantage one has ever over the brink campaign. Is I think she will be more acceptable to the party establishment. Will the party establishment be okay. With a cannon who who hasn't shown any appeal to with black. Voters. I mean historically no right when we look at Obama went to look at Kerry went electric Clinton gore they all had clear support from brokers. Yes buy it how much of that. Is sort of just like a coincidence. The kind of path of least resistance coalition being you know. Black voters and you know somewhat liberal white voters or something like that as opposed to. That power brokers and a party actually being like. Hey. If you eat in a one reason Hillary Clinton lost and 26 team was. Black turnout was down right am at a I don't know the answer to a sudden mysterious site. You know how much well officials demand hey if you want to be our nominee you gotta show an ability to win. Nonwhite voters generally am black voters in particular. That's a wrap for our conversation about Elizabeth Warren's dissension in the the polls we're going to be right back and we will talk about the fallout from the two mass shootings in transit taxes and Dayton Ohio just two weeks ago. We're back and it's been a little or. Since then pulling assured an increase in concerns over the threat of white nationalism. And support for stricter ground laws remains the majority opinion as a house for. A while. Can't resist on recess and won't be back until Labor Day but twenty point democratic candidates have continued to talk about the attacks on the trail. Pair what is a review two weeks out does it seem like the El Paso oh. And perhaps maybe Dayton to but of course a passer brings in the issue of white nationalist terrorism as well but does it seem like those Nash earnings were. A defining moment in American politics. There are over it they were then we can discuss how we buy American politics. I think if you look at how the New York Times and these are operating. White nationalism. Trumps speeches president let Fox News has been a lot of stories saying these shooters. Words and you know the words and messages. Were goat from I think there's been much more aggressive covers about him in the knee so you're seeing. Stories about people calling you and or your local law that arresting. People who could you know who have written about from either seen the incident. And from law on yeah yeah that nationals machines. Well I think that the media in Haiti institutions outside of government and are changing their approach Anderson and white and the yet BI might do more than I do the institutions are seeing it might be galvanizing in dead weight without changing and a Bos and Cox. It is up with something Uga. Well my actually my eight by a in this soul. Response Christmas can be no. But I think I think Perry's right it's like maybe answers something like. It it did produce them. Lasting change in terms of how as Perry said. People and institutions treat and think of white nationalism. But not with guns. Right pan am that's on guns. I've I'm I don't think we've seen as Germany. As many changes. And honestly you know white nationalism. I I think Perry's right that you will see some like. You know that BI will probably announce some. Effort to target and Bobble law. And I do you think we've seen some media outlets. The a little more explicit about the threat white nationalist. Wait national imposes now and has post historically. Will that last dying you know so. Just it I mean. We talked about guns before and this honest podcast and it's I was in the same framework of like is public opinion on gun control changing. And I see generally come to the conclusion that it has sort is steadily. Changed and gotten more in favor of of the gun control and I would guess pushed back a little bit in say. So the Republican governor of Ohio. Obviously on machines with Deaton whose Mike DeWine called for whoever were just a version of a red flag off so it's background checks things like that. And I think trump. You know wish you it is maybe initially wanted to supportive but then perhaps actually today I think he he made to know a.'s about it. Well remember we already have a lot of background checks and it's really about mental health silly comment. Via media but I I guess I would say. There is with ever the shooting there does seem to be. I think some nominal. Change as far as. The idea of. Talking about white nationalism. And talking about white supremacy. Which I actually think are interesting only now being defines like those definitions are being refined quite a bit so talking about. Right wing terrorists. And use that using a language of this is a white nationalist. People in the media drawing. Kind of comparisons to well Alexander an eighteen that was sort of an ice it's inspired. Terrorist attacks of this ash shooting in El Paso was a white nationalist inspired terrorist act they're essentially the same kind of thing we should talk about the same way. But I think a white supremacy idea use. The one you're seeing Tucker Carlson pushed back in this way where. He's saying white supremacy is old me the kkk and people who go to meetings and tacked to swastika is on their heads and and you Jack kind of thing whereas. I think a lot of institutions are so smartly and rightly talking about white supremacy as. The idea that systemic racism exists and that it promoted. In various ways cultural and political. Over hundreds of years but that's hard concept for people to get a hold up. And that I think has been more are difficult I think the idea of designating. White nationalist terrorists in the same category as Latin. Muslim terrorism. Is it isn't is it an easier job for the media to do you the white supremacy conversation much harder and it's tied into. Slavery. And everything came in America so it's like talking American history in the radically. Different way. Yet I team's right to me I do think the media has. Has is now. And with white Nationalists. Or white supremacist terror attacks. Use as much more the troops. And just the has had takes up much more the position and this similar position as they do I'll Qaeda terrorism as hasn't existed crisis terrorism. I mean sure. Are you are you're saying that. In a way the American conception of the threat of nationalism has changed a topic yes I I don't think that. I think he answered unequivocally yes that the much more serious and unwillingness to read that was ago and edit the media changed in the electorate and his solutions that matters even if there's no gun control bills are my guess is building. Not predicting any legislation I'm just saying that I think that these chemical changes do matter I think something happened to you think it'll last. I too like you thing that will see the net you know there'll be more Oracle is iron. Somebody wrote some weird clothes that are based patient out he's used that. They give you more likely to cops in this city will be like me do something. Or below market shot up not I think will be more aggression around these kinds of things. In the end in thinking it's like it real clear eight it is the united visited our. And yet there was there is a shooting that was. Supposedly stopped by law enforcement right that was. Similarly. In motivated like white nationalism out of it did. So but it's mean it's. I think it's probably been. The identification of that has probably like in American Media has probably been slightly. Slowed down by you know outlets like Fox News where. It's it's like if it so if it so right wing. Extremist. Became what we're now calling nationals because almost always. They they they talk about the mental illness thing and it's and it then that becomes a whole conversation ends so Mike it's very apropos the chiefs in the trap was saying. This morning it's all about mental illness like I'd think that. Personnel talking point has its. Severely retarded progress of talk of like how we talk about fat and it did find that in media. In terms of talking you know politics government we usually talk about I guess I'm so. It looks like that house Democrats are going to be combat and so close when they give reasons that a this bill on beating the magazines. And the red flag Stowe is now what day it is not. Bright either in the end. But there is that Iran is she in terms the crest is hanging what you see is the big idea that emerged last week is. I think for Google was that idea of a national gun licensing switches to something. Of the idea like usually done unlike you or properly he asked yet to climb these students who you were crazy and so with Clinton people and now Lauren veto Castro hits now I don't know means you might DN RE LEY in that it was a lot of and it's on the idea that that's what's. In the third way is. He's there is because. You think about candidates. I was kind of running a basically anti strong in front of the problem there you know warrants Sanders already and it is well alone I'm the big business the will the problem here. They is now moving pretty only to a candidate anti racism increases and the quality he seemed would you go to Mississippi to talk and ice you know to put this scenario yeah he's big he's done in Oklahoma today. Visiting India memorial. For the city. Sake why is he what or months of running. A solo Mike campaigns and every campaign looks. Yet and he was also and I mean. ET racism but also like doing the whole thing he's like but I'm willing to talk to other side like he was an Arkansas. Annie went to a gun show Antarctica and you like there is that kind of the real launch of his campaign after the El Paso shooting. Is. It interstate but I mean in his herd of three launch and wish this kind of address some people say I should run for senate. But I'm here to like fight the higher. Forces at work in America. IAE eight. In frankly a skeptical of it still. Because it seat I mean it could who's to say what works in this environment. But yet the idea of running. Not just an anti trump campaign but an anti like bad things in America and I'm here too like. Make its. See. To sound a signers notes in and feel your pain in some ways it I don't I don't know what that. It looks like it nick I think it. I gears either it'll be interesting to watch but it but it's not. It. I mean not speak to Senecal but is he re launching its campaign if he was at 18% in the polls now. Right you're saying that he wasn't working out and there is another. Technical try it and the chances are effective and already wasn't working out yet this won't work either Perry did outline some of the ways in which Democrats have. Well responded to the mass shooting in El Paso. Both you know in congress and on the 20/20 trail. However Republicans. Reacted I know you know clear you mentioned the governor of Ohio. Have we seen anything final act Greg Abbott of course the governor of Texas also watched. You know. Domestic terrorism task force were not trump what are other Republicans what is the response. I'm. It it you could describe it a bunch of different ways but I think there has not been much response from the report after the treatment is yes like look Democrats. I think if you look at them long history if guns as an issue in this country there really has been change on the democratic side M. Democrats are officials are are much more willing to come out forcefully for gun control now than they were ten years ago let among twenty years ago. Democratic. Politicians now. And you see this among the 21 candidates are are very willing to to come out forcefully for a gun control. Have we seen some Republican officials. Come out and never ever the red flag law or. You know that that. The trump administration signed trump signed at the pump stock thing down. They talk about meant in the united I think. The error of mass shootings if you can call it that. Has resulted in Republican officials being more willing to. Pay some lip service to gun control. I'm. And then to nibble around the edges a little bit policy wise but but are Republicans can. Get on board with an assault weapons ban or like Harry do you think there's any chance Republicans. In congress would get onboard wet. A ban on high capacity magazines. No miracles but I do so he is. It was definitely the seedy apartments who is initially. Shrunk enough Connell a call when needed and with the biggest sin let you know in the end. Hey I don't cynical and there's the running. Mouse are absolutely. Teenagers were prepared to real action the next immediately. And bias and congress are you knew this and if there isn't an easy to make and its meaty you know you're you're disingenuous you knew that will be down. And that number is not something in the executive branch or me or mormons will buy guns well. I don't think it well oh. Broke gun control bill. Trauma at upper does. All right well I think that's. Pretty good explanation of where things stand at this point so without watts wrapping up thank you Claire. Thank you Micah you're very welcome and thank you bearing. It for now my name is Gail injury attorney each now is in the control room are intern is Jake are allowed union touched by emailing us at podcast at 530 dot com. You can also of course treated us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show. Leave as a rating or review in the apple podcast or. Or tell someone of comments as people are getting back from vacation and heading back toward paying attention to the prime name and politics as girls under Anita back to work scroll through Twitter. Tubby with a check us out. Anyway. It.

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