Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: How does Trump's recent struggles affect the GOP?
I think we know of course over the past few cycles we've seen an increasingly strong relationship between the results on the presidential level on the results from the house and senate blocked off. Now that doesn't necessarily mean 2016 will bet that particular cycle that we've been seeing since it's been so you unique so far. But I wouldn't heck else haven't wacky wacky wacky crazy. But let's be real trump doing poorly does not bode well for Republicans to back. Somebody is an editor which is a little bit less technical but dumpster fire yes and we need a better way that's the best board ever how dare you results afraid. Anthony now now it's a where it now Oxford but it in. German word compound we're don't ratify it. But like this is not going well for Republicans and where the causes and effects are. Are a little bit hard to say but trump does now down 89. Or ten points to meet got so much about like from. About people like. Automatically saying well I can't vote for trump therefore in the right foot apart like it's more about the fact that first of all. If it's a blow applicants suppress turnout second of all. You have a lot of people who usually vote Republican who aren't impressed by crown his favorability ratings nationwide or about 35%. As bad clintons are that's much worse. You know I'm not sure I think it depends on the the police that the candidates running right there was there was a memo from our Republican strategist that was leaked last week to Politico that basically said. Hey at the end of the day you yet you know your district's particular texture and complexities and so kind of go with your gut right but that's a basic thing. Act there is no. There's no magic formula for this there's no one's telling you it's like. Sex should you stay with this person should you leave some I don't know right it's ultimately it's like at the personal decision. I think it's a little bit what the national Republican strategist percent which is sort of what we don't know what people what's gonna happen your particular district so we can't give you. A down a line for mile tunnel where I think you know it's part of some formula that there themselves trying to figure out. One what's the chance that by abandoned trump that'll be in trouble in a primary either this year and two years from now. To how much what really gain if I abandon trump. In the general election I think in elected district in West Virginia for example you're not gonna game very mock right but I would expect if you were to see some people leave trump behind it might be in states. When it's a high Latino. I'm black populations as or a high. Lee educated population would. Vote which lowers Mike coughed and in Colorado right once kind of ransom Tea Party here is now saying right you know what it. You better elected trying to check and balance or ever present yes. There are precedents border a party giving up on the top of its ticket and saying. Therefore elect us to ensure divided government 1996. Is the obvious example. We're Republicans to totally fine they held on to their. Their victory in the house they'd earned a 94 it was very hard earned. You know so so this can happen. Because of the lack of leadership. And central planning in the GOP it seemed like it might be more for a free for all. I think I think like is that the fall comes around and it's if he if trumps numbers state. Or as they are right now here that I think people are aspect sale at wal what's life like after trump loses the presidency right Angel say. We want to make people free kick that this ever happened under that we were ever. We were ever complicit in this. Moderates the coalition of people who would rather trump loses in a landslide. If he loses because. This is not everyone by the way right but as a certain type of Republican who would say. I would rather that trump is them is discredited it's not my cup of tea it's gonna eventually to problems stream one way the other side rather in these. By ten points and I think that they are allowed to give trump a little bit of his own. His emotions first felt that if I mean you know you knew it the convention could prove a so happy with himself out of his dad doing that national television so. There are people for whom trump has. Has not been helpful and be critical.
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