Transcript for Polls were off for the 2020 election, but not by much | FiveThirtyEight
Cater do you want to work here. Had to choose the 28 point election block like Republicans were poised to actually lose seats in the House of Representatives but it turns out the the eighteen seats Democrats did not happen act it they're looking for on November terror. And it looks like the Democratic Caucus and house has shrunk somewhere between six and he even nine members. Votes are still being talents we still don't know the exact number of losses. The hearing meet to talk about what exactly went down and what the new democratic and Republican caucuses will look like if elections analyst Jeffrey stout and death. Hey gallon so Jeff what happen to be no Wyatt patient calculated it. Well I'm I think where we're going to be investigating a lot of wives from the selection for awhile but I mean I think the easiest thing to say is that. The generic about environment. Does not seem just hand out their only ahead by maybe a couple points we'll see or ends up once action finished counting those in California York. And whatnot but it does seem dangerous word is democratic leaning as the polls suggested and we saw that in the presidential race as well and I began to connect atop the ticket. On to some of this too and that. Down from performed better than expected and so Republicans performed better than expected. And that's only because we know that people generally vote the same party. The top ticket. On down but it also does seem that there were some split ticket in maybe some of these districts that were competitive. Maybe some Republicans actually voted for Biden it's not take it but voting for Republican House candidates we'll have more to sell us out there later when we get more data but. That's he's be sort initial. And what kinds of protestors horror to our crafts. Losing it where these seats and they picked up in 2008. Team and how Republican. Leaning or. So they were mostly seats that Democrats won 2018. So far it looks like Republicans have flipped. Eight democratic seats and also the libertarian held seat just match is retiring so it seems open Republican machines that chip in picking up. While Democrats have flipped three Republican held seats says it's a net gain of six for the GOP. And if you look at the deceased we noted it flipped so far there are few outstanding races might even make further gains. I'm it looks to be sort of have seats that are relics of the Republican. And half that were much more competitive and I and a speaking based on them so the president Russell's 26 team. Com first is the one seat that they won it was not flip when he teams action in the Republican. Leaning seat held by Democrat. And I was the Minnesota seventh hole by Collin Peterson. I'm very Republican trump wanna buy more than thirty. In 2016. And Peterson is a blue dog Democrat moderate moderate concern Democrat held for a long time world. Minnesota. I'm a unit of getting dropped pretty badly in this election and I think that this goes back to the seat is speaking to Republican or Democrat even one as conservative as Petersen hold onto. But other seats. Our are ones that Democrats flipped and 2018. But word. Still pretty Republican at their base line thinking it seems like the Oklahoma. Fifth which is around Oakland city. South Carolina first. I'm around Charleston desert districts where where president trampled by double digits. And those districts in 2016. The Democrats managed float and very very narrowly and 2018 outs back that you. Handful of seats that closer. Or even that Clinton Hillary Clinton won in 2016. You mightn't think there to South Florida seats where it appears that president trapped in a lot better. 20:16. And evening carried DC's. Once Hillary Clinton carried. And the 26 27 seats in Florida. Both very Latino heavy districts in and around Miami I'm both wants Democrats 120180. One's where the GOP won back. I'm thinking back to 2018. And when we were doing analysis host of meet terms. And looking into whether Democrats may boast of their genes in quorum vote Obama from districts meeting. Excessively democratic areas that flip ports tropic sixteen. And then these rob Clinton districts that were accessed from the Republican districts and it flipped what's Democrats in 2016. And when we think about those two categories figure maybe Obama talked to experts as being. More rule white working class and we think about the Romney Clinton districts you think more super read a little more diverse well educated parts of the country around Houston Dallas Fort Worth Orange County etc. When we think of those choose kind of swing districts is it clear where Republicans. Did pass in terms of making up ground that they've lost in 2018. So I think Republicans were able to make ground back. In sort of in both areas would we be would be a fair way of putting it but I but I think that goat though. Romney Clinton or about the sort of suburban sea discussion is one that we can kind of hone in on here. On so Democrats the most part. Won the suburban seats that they 120 team. But he did lose a few of them and I think it inundated GOP's gains are mostly come from that territory. But at same time fact that Democrats didn't lose a lot of what they team on its partners might excellent chart itself. First is something about some districts and places like Southern California. On this large county district that we know Republicans flipped. Orange County used to be sort of the bedrock of the Republican Party in California by it has even flipped two democratic presidential candidates in recent times and Democrats swept. How seats for the most part in orange county and 2018 and so at least one of them has flipped back possibly another that is still. On the side also happens there. I'm certainly is an example of sort of the Romney Clinton example you're getting gotten weak that the two districts in South Florida that the Republicans flipped might have a little bit of that. Advised as well historically Republican and Clinton did while and then though between sixteen and flip democratic. House level in 2018 but now gone backed the GOP. Com but I think you can also point out to districts that. We're sort of low hanging fruit away for the GOP candidate a lot of their gains they'd come in the most Republican seats. That Democrats looked at 2018 Wheeler sees that would necessarily described as sort of that Romney Clinton esque seat. Now maybe some of them are are partly suburban. But there they're heavily Republican enough in terms of the presidential that I don't think. Night he would sort described in the same way as I liked that seat in Southern California that actually flip Clinton. In 2016 these are sees things that don't trumps the one pretty handily and 116 it will settle. Lot of this heat that you've described as what Pena for Republicans in 20/20 were actually won by women candidates and we've talked about a part thirty days that. The Republican caucus has fewer win and representatives that Democrats bias is significant degree. As are any sense of why so many women one in the Republican Party. They're so according to data from the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. About thirteen Republican women were in this current congress and house while down because from from previous congresses could between two elections actually. I'm pretty bad for Republican women just the way retirements and losses worked out. But it looks like that number's going to at least double in the next congress because 26 Republican women have won so far. Com there's still some house and races for the can add to that number answer that would be a record number of Republican women and the US have represented itself made out a strategic in some ways we know from. On academic studies that women are Simon's views liberal. And men and some in this case thinking about Republicans being assertive and that means they're viewed as moderate and Sony. More competitive districts maybe trump Kerry the democrats' 12018. Main act the woman candidate is just a better fit. For for appealing to the electorate. That's not the civilized woman and consider themselves conservatives but I again this is about perception. But thus far talk about nine seats that the GOP is picked up that were either public Democrats of the one libertarian. And of those seven Tom involved Republican women candidates so yes Republican woman so far had power mostly gains. GOP's. Art well nonetheless Democrats still control house mean 28 point one. But looking ahead Q what history pretends for that house majority. Should we it spat afternoon due. You know based not so much history it looks like the president incumbent president's party loses seats in the house it and and it turns right after their first election. Should we just expect that are certainly indicates Republicans will be the majority 20/20 three years I'm getting too far arts. It's a great great question I mean I think. If you just sort of look at it without any complications that issue is certainly bad for Democrats in terms that the chances of holding on house. In mid term elections since World War II the president's party's loss. About 27 seats on average and since Democrats are looking right now happening somewhere around he. 222. Killing 22625. Seat something like that. I'm losing 27 whip would put them while on the minority. So one of the main consequences of these sort of unexpected Republican gains that it really narrowed the margin for error here for Democrats. In the majority. But also make it tougher probably for the pass laws they senseless with children and some members mean danger in the mid term. Medium cooperative with leadership. So there there're some there to consequences here all this. In terms of whether or not this its upcoming mid term is going to follows sort of class pattern I think it's it's difficult saying whether or not. Conditions might prove to make this minute and almost one where the president is part hasn't heard much but people we do know is that it will take Joseph Biden. Being relatively popular I'll win the president's party has lost seats it's usually com. And the president is pretty popular. If the president is relatively unpopular that will probably lead to more significant losses so I think that's a really important aspect. Of things and of course the presence popularity could come down to you economic conditions what's going on the corona virus handling it. I mean a lot of unknowns. And we also haven't had maybe. At least in recent years is much of the situation where gonna hat here you know as a decent chance to be divided government Democrats have a tough time. Both of the run offs in Georgia. On to get the senate. And also a Supreme Court which could conceivably. Make rulings such as overturning the Affordable Care Act and we just don't know. How all that could affect whole campaign. Com so I think Democrats of plenty of reason to be scared about this mid term. Com and is sort of that the short of it but there could be complications that. Could changed that sucks. Are well why aren't getting out of ourselves that's a picture what the house. Cute one. So they separated for chatting with me sure you act against if you enjoyed this Padilla and you'll. Mortgage to subscribe to high activity on YouTube. That's it for now. Yeah.
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