Where the rest of the 2020 races stand | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the polling error in 2020 and offer reasons for why the error might’ve occurred.
50:49 | 11/12/20

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Transcript for Where the rest of the 2020 races stand | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Hello and welcome to the partnered politics podcast. I'm Dillinger. I think it's overt and demands. Gazans model. That knee. It's our first post election model talk. This may be our last model talk for awhile maybe we'll talk about Georgia and people have future model talked episodes to further unpack the polls once we get more data. But you know where you in the in the recovery process. You know yes they certainly feel more like. Coastal action until board yesterday but there rate would have rather have. During the election you really feel Gordon yes well look forward so. I don't expect that idea but I look forward to the point in time where art world few words. Nothing will make you were lured. There reading discussion news. What network trump will form an entity where it like meeting people you know be passive. Like literally just like previously. Pacific. All right well then let's get into something perhaps. More substantial or at least more relevant to what we came here do. As a arts keeping it blocks light. Republicans have fifty seats in the senate while Democrats have 48 seats meaning of that. The two towards or runoff elections will decide control of the senate. Of course Joseph Biden has won the election it looks like his national popular vote margin will be somewhere between four and five points. That's a bit off problem where of course the polling average tax and before the election were present eight and a half points. And then when it comes says the house won't hold reporting in the direction. Democrats picking up some seats it looks like no somewhere between six and nine seats but retain their majority overall in the chamber. So just we got a lot to talk back here about pulling me wrong modeling. And a lot of different people have shared their takes on polling so far in this cycles and is gonna ask you probably how do you think polls did point. Correct. If you and acquitted four words for your four point polling here for the presidency. And national polls in key swing states in meeting the simple fact is that polls in this on average by. Three points so retreat after forward and that's. Pretty normal. And it's kind. I mean there's your analysis right right. If the polling industry. Santa okay well. Trigger furcal is still big deal in let's just keep you we're doing right. The odds are that you had whatever problems they had this year also talk that your problems that pools like it really really far right so if our pollsters say we have. Look at what happened here right exactly the mark. I had someone new who analyzes polls. And models yet certainty. This was very normal it's kind of buried and it's not really like weren't even on the edge of the distribution so I got those outlets at every. Twenty years right now honestly period accident that part of the distribution. I know I mean I think part of went wrong. Pollsters do is they. And again if you read this story property means fears that it had difficulties of doing polling. Communication strategies sometimes like. It seem like. There instruments are more exact and really practice their many things in the polling typical and so. You just hope to get close in the usually you get close including this year for the most power something worse than others right but like. But I like we've got its purpose team now we've. We fixed it right. I could fix the problem education. Right now you the correct population. That's not how educated but there are problems that. Crop that you didn't necessarily has been at a time so which media purpose of which would be temporary that would relate to Colby or proper. Mail voting whatever else right the first of all obviously property the story right immigrants in this election. The polling aim was not that he is like that fifteenth most important. Story right right so the bottom like there's been thinking about polls and analysts syllable. Scott directional in the right. Asset light at some people just like to veto on polls and the pollsters think we're like ultimately. Pollsters were typical but. Fall there's sort of like oh woes be blows me you know it's like it now you know you can't let him. You can other people define. The questions right of the people like defying the turf. Yeah okay that's totally fine but I also think that. Well for small we're here to cover Paul again there's tons of other things regarding this election that will talk about our podcast. However he talked about and that other former. But I think the question here is. There was an underestimating. From support to sixteen there was probably an even bigger underestimation of Trump's support. In this election and so people are curious. If there is some thing. That have to do with the way that polls are conducted the wave that Trump's support structure. That means that polls are doing a very good job of capturing he has support. And I think that's what pollsters are trying to. Ducks the question closers are trying to answering now I would characterize it as people falling on swords are just say. People are curious because if they have a sense that there's something wrong with the methodology that they're using. Warren the instruments that they have to gauge public opinion they wanna get it right this immediately and honest and open and curious conversation. Do you right now have a sense of wide holes might be under estimating Trump's support. You know beyond just educational. I think there are lot of different theories first of all I think. A problem this year is that they actually under an estimated. Support for members of congress by more than truck right which might steer you away so what appeared at a news. Least persuasive. Is. One form of the Psycho voter theory where voters are reviewing her failing to express their preferences for their creative. It socially acceptable city's work right. You know what Susan Collins. Beecher falls well more than truck Bryant I don't think it's a cynic that we'll say that you. Supports using counts you know oh. This period moderate. Establishment Republicans. Pounds for a period I would say Pruitt who like. Business credit limit what you know when theory that I think is relatively persuasive is that like. It's just targets or perhaps people out of them victories social crosses used meaning people who. Trusted institutions less trusted media last rate because you are happy to ethical kind of freaks. Like. You know if only eight attempts and people intervals are kind of freak if you take fifty minutes at least you know. He's doing guessing you're out there reader. But like there's a correlation between you know lower social trust's ability for trying right and you're also answered it as much then. The could be hard to wait. Idiot yankees T your way. I think purples. Is there a counter balance their where. People were more likely to vote for Democrats are more likely to trust the media who were. Yes it was like to bring it right it's meeting about it. Shiite turn voter and a precarious. Excited by voters right. Weyers you know this appears to people are at home greeted identity had more time to answer polls. They're now out as much of the take a phone call or opt in right. Select in these states like South Carolina where it looks like Lindsey Graham to and is considered would be his polls right at state where like. Democrats were way more enthusiastic but likely just are Democrats. To elect a Democrat so airliner in most years the two groups that turn out right and so so it may just been a Democrat who very charged. And they were answering polls that usually high rates is a visit. The public that usually low rates and I think it's worth keeping in my. It didn't shoot it down or eight they've worked it didn't work trying to protect him. In my in that. In 28. The polls we're extremely good which aids and it probably can customize it only there would be. That was a year re kind of had by most measures equal these yes on both sides right. So maybe you know me being here like that. You don't have problem things like if this doesn't always like well you know into the polls say but besides war is at stake so they can better. You know actually the sets were enthusiastic often under performs its polls because those people answer polls you know. It would eat well there's whole debate about like the Rodney voters more enthusiastic. Than the amount of voters and guess what Obama because Bowles life here. It worked well so maybe you know maybe you want it. Hedge against this more enthusiastic. Supporters who who abroad and answer service. So that to be some issues is who is or is actually responding to polls and what's important we talk about reading Bryant accuser right. This is a little bit different in this sense that. ER than on college educated white people that you're reaching on the phone representative of the broader. You know population are college educated white people. And if they are you can read as much as you want but you're not or access fix the problem so that's what we're talking about there in terms of who responding to polls act. In terms of it matters who responsible. You did mention Covert. I'm not sure it can't. Fix the problem separately use. Financiers of cystic straight you have to like you know. Catchers. Seoul. I owed another unsolvable what weeding alone doesn't necessarily fix the problem right if the population of non college educated reporters that you're reaching at a poll he's more likely to support Biden. Then the non college educated. Farmers who were out in the public right because reading just knicks back sample that you reach on the phone. On larger chunk you know via the ultimately poll results. But you have to corporate and I'm curious. What actually but what you wanna go further into in terms of war kind of statistical methods you think might. Be able to address the problem. It's a little hard to describe it if you like. To me amputations and in particular week for different things right if it social trust. He could ask questions like it's voted yes in this new bit like how many. Friends you have right. And if you find of the population here surveying. Is morsels connections in the actual American population on the whole. And could wait for that right you can ask things like. You know how many rallies have begun to how much cheaper to speed by donating money rate and it turns out as most polls find people are way or participated in his first. How much to get America population and you can also wait for that suit right people who have looked as patient we've been heavily so I think there are ways. Around it requires creativity. And ask if you were questions seem before. Padilla. Meanest. Part of the problems are also just that if leadership within the Republican Party or trump in particular. Trashes polls then you know that candidate supporters. Just won't be interest added responding to polls period answer is part of the equation just. I guess tried to get the broader public to trust polls or care about holes. Seems like. Any given it any problems and 2018 returns right so I don't know. I mean idiocy to look at let you know deep holes that. Attribute it is also big news organization. ABC here to graduate if you date due worse in the polls it's worth testing suppose. Yeah and again we mentioned this whole time but we're still waiting for better exit poll data and be verified servers and getting us. Polls that are collected eighty exit polling. And as flexible it don't really it was a story and election which could be problem. Yet yet honest people who were like. On what little holes. Like oh well Williams crossed. Good equipment in Nebraska. Right. From an exit poll has a lot of issues that mean its. Purpose mystery is like. There are. What. In my special powers. Groups I can. Distinguish. Good faith vs bad acts and I think holes at 530 it's likely pulls her right. There are lot of bad faith actors that kind of display it was an opportunity to. To criticize poll right Europe where objective. That is wrong. You can tell us in the ethnic actors workers. Because they were there ones who were very quick on Wednesday morning. To get their stories about the polls pale light actually many states would interest you write that based leadership. We're rooting for corrupt. As of Wednesday morning it means that initially it was Georgia those work. So you know people that were. In quickly with their takes are usually candidates usually assigned. That day. So you know on the one hand like it's important are very curious about this right there is a degree you like. A like. Vieri and it. Impossible expectations Reuters you know people vehicles would be exactly right now its type in right. Enough to get better right yes you're exactly right to which it. There and a bright light. I didn't have more meaty. What people are reacting to more is that. Like yes we got the winter quarter quo right on the presidential level but doesn't seem to you necessarily on the senate or house. This apparently. Two upsets so far from. Those are pretty mild process right. You know Tillis is it to an underdog and we. Barely had getting favored me and that is when some fundamental principles rates Apple's app costs what we have here underdog. But we're not talking like necessarily are being. Major upsets just in a close election oftentimes that also break human direction. And that's kind of what happened. In the senate. Don't like electric in this. Her why didn't write him Galen is like one of these years. After you know hung up my pulling spikes in humans opinion Olson you know lets them. Exotic resort playing poker eating sushi you're something right hopefully after that went. Usually they'll fight but he team which you received earlier exotic resort then. I did that has yet what is it you're pretty to look at seven point oh yours right but we're kind of still winding up like. In I think part of global distribution and people like freaking out like public you know what article are those that also plus really normally slit like what normally happens at like. I don't know three or were crippled yours normal so if you think this is a if you think this year. There's an unacceptable degree of error in polling. The don't look at the polling because you could perhaps happen all the time that's happened all the time passed an accident as worse and better but like. You know if you think is unacceptable yet no information other polls immediately canceled using an election right. The game. And yet you know pupils and where Jessica because you know perhaps like you're not gonna fix problems where they're magically. Super precise every year they may have a pretty good year half the time right. Then a court it's happening this way what direction we're just yet illiterate recently is it between the light yet. Well it's part of. This may be false expectations of how accurate polls are beats on the arts and knit thoughts essentially like. The average polling error if you go back to the nineties I think we've walked act is somewhere for the national polling there is somewhere in the range of two to three points. Whereas if you include more data then it gets credited bigger and of course to polling error in this election. Now on the national level was somewhere in the range four points. And so that really there was a larger point Eric this year if you compare to recent data that's been here I guess. Open Lou you know there is here at 1612. Actually. Realized. Yes I can look all the way. Back to 1936. Which is can we do. And it's what it is like personal use only. Because you only have one pole but to which it only accurate because it is. Ridiculous numbers the years only. An average players like 3.2 points or something like that right as are asked him back this year repetitive added. Richard because it mail voting we thought it was going to be hires that we thought here Richard B. If the current mutual's that's what like four points basically and so wrong. Casinos which are just couldn't be buried in the fourth while you're right. Curtis it was like I feel like. Boy you know I didn't really good job it has been pulling your would be in weird ways in which it's kind of correlated to some degrees between different states right so it's like. If you're job is estimating here. They're not going to be a lot of decisions right decision being that we are now pretty well this longer history though polls wrong. And not to stop recent data and that's based on a wrong. My view that polling is typical in this epic. My view that response rates again and you could. More issues right. You know despite the atmosphere of confidence that might as you know we executed pretty big. Screw up by woods looking ahead right here you know you had a pretty big scuba. We actually distributed. Attached below did it's weird because like the statements that we've all happen quicker point. But there are several states where it will. It's just Wednesday right you have to like have lost. Three if these four states approximately. George terrorism an option it will. Super close these provisional increased by stating right. So weird kind of state like. Exactly how close election violence it was Apple's popular. Those Electoral College market it is close to frequencies and there's more than one. Steve to see you mentioned. Earlier on that the Covert pandemic some facts on the accuracy. The polls and if you think about it or what's different. In 20/20 compare 2018 whacked the polls were accurate. Of course the pandemic is one of those things. If you what gets you know once Steve today is in the midst. A really bad outbreak Wisconsin that's one of the states where polling was least accurate. Op off by somewhere in the range of secretary points. Each is there any credence to about it and what exactly about hope it would meet polling that's accurate. So there a couple of things in what could be dead cope it has. Chris differentials in who is physically at home. Or to position where they're able to respond to polls right so here's what stereotype prison like. Democrats are knowledge workers you can work from home. And Democrats are more careful about what activities that you under coded the airport is uterus Democrat on the phone that are Republicans who may be out. And into a restaurant rightly have a working class where they're not allowed to do it right back to be a big issue. An Irish picky with mail voting we're. You know eight some votes get. Spoiled or lost in the mail static huge amount but like if you have liked. Let's see what person ballot spoilage rate of 1% loss creative votes that are cast by mail an idiot issues. They can cost you know just for likely voter screens because maybe you kind of count all these people do. Voted earlier this had to go to which you shouldn't there be behind an exclusive it was gonna turn on Election Day elective literally get screwed right. So they're serious. They're various challenges with respected it is decoded. Yeah and I should say that pollsters did it CA that once Covert and McKay. They were having higher response rates or did seem like they were having it more while reaching people. Once people start working from home war spending less time doing. Whatever kind of recreational activities they might do you not over times so there is some evidence that actually you know lends credence to the idea that that Kobe did change the polls in some way. You mentioned to her now and colder babies blunt reasoned that turnout models could have been off by. You know Republican turnout was massive in this election just like democratic turnout wise. You don't what can we say at this point up now turnout models and how it compares an hour. Real turnout compares with what kind of expertise there were going into. So turnout is very. In line with like I think you know currently showing that turn has been avoided being. A 158 million immediately exactly remember that our final forecast predicted that when these seven or something right select. So you know. What issue he's like polls to be more explicit I think about it what they expect right. That you story expecting. 140 million a 16880. Million or what writes it's a little bit as transparent security I wonder about. Low order propensity meaning less poor history. Hispanic voters and maybe also black and Asian voters. Where we know that Hispanics that. Have turned out in the past few elections are. Mostly voting Democrat you know 70% or whatever our own. Excellent as is south Texas switcher 95% Hispanic you huge booms in turn out. And almost all those voters he could go to drop. It is supposed which security was not just better turn the light. So if you have a pool. Hispanic voters black voters Asian voters who was voted that aren't nearly as reliably democratic as it was it. You trouble reaching the opponent down right. They could have problems right as you might say okay well. Here's or Hispanics were targets Hispanics believe Hispanics and their like. You know there if you organist who are likely voters for example it would lower rate and the you can have your. Using this kind of an honor and a sample. Of Hispanics in pain. Black and Asian voters took to the entire population can be a problem and the fact that. Paulson so focused. The white working class right and not thinking hearing much about. Nonwhite voters voters of color you know. So there's often a source of fear in the direction we're polls underestimate how well Democrats do among voters of color accuracy Democrats alike but it appears as an alternative. Focus on the white working class and understands working class. Asian American class these districts in Los Angeles, California right that you might have problems. So as you mention we should expect Paul air but also you know. For pollsters it's important to be curious about what went wrong and look at some of these possibilities. To correct for going forward. Taking a step back for a minute. Warner kind of talk about the the polling picture more broadly doesn't seem like the polling error was correlated in this election we saw I mean. We saw white pull it was pretty accurate in Minnesota but then not very accurate cots and you Wear is very actor in Georgia and then not very accurate in Florida and so kind of when you're looking from region to region. Do your seem to find answers in just looking at you know. Act geography to explain polling there. Like are performed in. George for perform two pistols and one Georgia probably. Words or else you're wrong. It's actually pretty bull. And dialogue that discourse. By affiliates in August Ehrlich moment we're masters. Too weird race too weird even work by means Georgia. There's you know swing right. Kind of normally like several detectors were negative and bulls leaders meeting. When classes where retro eighties fabric that's workers. Maybe there are some who read that success it's either the prospective male audience and Stacy went with bucket. Patchwork where overall Apple's yours may try this year. Maybe sub regional actors like in the south west in general. Color exco barriers in the polls were fine now right. Into into the polls were mostly on accepting or. The other is different actors and it creates SE correlations but we're modeling works when you wind up with like. With weird maps sometime right along its wire model actually gave George elected IQ if work aptitude to be. It went stating that seem accurate to people so. So yeah I mean it's it's. It's all very durable and you again by. And patience year guessed right is they. The things that we student and kind. Looking. In the late nights with the Red Bull in early mornings where. Remodel its like so you. Filter here offers. Adam. Likeness and possible very prepared for now we saw. 68. And we were carjacked miles it is a the plausibly universities it can happen this is not that weird. One. And I have about all of this looking back is does this also means that you know the route the trump. Residency. Or at least this year when we were looking at polling data about. Trust approval rating or how Americans viewed social unrest in American cities over the summer or how. Americans viewed trumps response to cope ignores handling of the economy. Does that mean that that Poland was also likely off by some figure and under -- meeting trump in those metrics as well. Are. Actually sought until that pollsters. One thing I think is not persuasive you'll sometimes hear pollsters say. We role. Please polling have to hit estimate turnout and so big that you don't population right like. But Richard Belzer rock me baby right that's like one of what. Ten explanations that holiness I think in general. If the horses pulling it off as we are category could test of course has pulled its actual results right to holds off there that isn't. You gets a pass a local races please don't that are just not persuasive tool I walkers she Booker but there a couple of things keep in mind. Why is that trip actually begin uptick is recuperating where the injuries right. Which is a little weird. You know kind of new ways to get a grueling but deducted for any number three's secrecy is the -- it but please holder. Q is trump did appear. Two clues somewhat strongly. With undecided voters if you look at a people cast their exit poll or the and it's an exit poll. Trump one. Late insiders. By fairly healthy margin notes written people in my the only option electorate right that that is we're that you can act like. The point maybe point. Counterpoint to drop and so the areas. Three points right at least half a bit with undecided between truck Elliott report points to explain here's a little bit through Beatty wasn't. Bit of a shift. In the senate races I think he actually did not have as much polling in states like me in South Carolina and my. In the street from the campaign right to Minneapolis eighty holy spirit confrontation. There were some ships regulars and arguably be I think. We checks of costs by instant wins have been there were some shipped separately in the senate that might explain some of the gap there. And so I mean should we. I guess meaty. Served put it more pointedly. Reconsider. Our conclusions about the way that culminated shapes americans' views of tramps presidency or the ways that. Regional justice protests and some the on grass and American city shaped americans' views. Democrats and Republicans and so on. Which should we like and out. Britain so whether as a polling area after the kind of open minded about what happened why trump or Republicans were underestimated should we also harvesting open mindedness and looking act act earlier this year thinking about our power. How Americans viewed everything that's happened. Maybe. Part of that was vicious sheltered compared to what else right you know. Polling compared Alexa Bret Stephens column are certainly better right I would take home its financial sector that is a respected team was. I think more like bees still based off the data but thinking like oh okay like me be Americans. Law born not. Eager to you you know T Colbert precautions over stimulating the economy in which is what it originally seemed more immediate Americans are not. As you know supportive of the black lies matter movement or as opens you you know like. Biden's relatives hesitancy Q work condemned protesters rioters or whatever. Let's get a coo it right. People who are. Taking more precautions about code it. Are staying at home and therefore more reach for the phone connected definitely skew code loopholes rightly that skews troubles are not. Maybe less maybe song right but I can definitely skew quoted polls as committed. Social desirability bias right. If it's seen as virtuous. Which it is right because entered now in protecting yourself but also making us. Received technical it to others. I mean it's actually kind of a giant goal. Between. The people's preferences about moving in polls here and a pro lockdown. And there repeal preferences based in the air. Behavior greatly you know I mean it's wrong. You're kind of like all literally inner bubbles right elected figures like some gap between the way people are behaving. And that way that polls are capturing they see me. But the city's effort which can sort it. Don't circles here which mean actually completely hypocritical or could it could look at that that you're getting home bodies. Who heart block down. And knocking people who were. Are going in doing. Outdoor dining there. Could we say anything yet similar a bow. Support for the clockwise matter movement and americans' reaction cute things like do you from the police at center which is now becoming a debate within the Democratic Party over rather not backward and in this election. In quite put that Hussein. Bucket into the cove and there's there's desirability questions about that right that you wanted to see is that injuries sister. Incident a question like did you actually see more. Of an effect that you actually the top presidential race he sees sport truck. We get Watson's work prop. But I think Kobe's just in any category. Because it literally effects and availability. To take an interview right. Which you know I mean in theory if you're out protesting. You've got to crowd right you're not an additional Lithonia at a protest. But with Kobe Rick and it. Profoundly affects people's behavior. And so people are living life as quote unquote normal people are. Bought portable locking themselves in right like it's pretty profound potentially. Excellence. Survey research. Art while we're gonna get more data and as we got to roll talk more about it and share whereas our listeners before we don't do you want to get choose some listener questions. Are we got plenty of questions a lot of them about. Polling accuracy which we've talked about quite a day and we made out so I'm. Theories there nobody should take this conversation and ask the final word on any of this. Were also curious and other arguments and as we get more data will share it with you. But god answers our questions and not necessarily pertaining to the accuracy of point 0% more broader question some about the model etc. so the first question is. Which they ended up being the tipping points. We don't know yet because it's close enough alone. I think it'll be Wisconsin actually after all home. Pennsylvania probably get a exit. One point five ish when mr. Biden. There's an outside chance at whatever else anything else in Georgia are left couldn't make sure that state. But I think probably Wisconsin. No expression custom chassis its common aphorism in scientific modeling it is quote all models are wrong but some are useful. Up he goes on to say there has already been some discussion about whether fart thirty eight's election model what's right or wrong. And it seems clear that the marked the election was we'd be in the range of possibilities the model predicted. But is the model useful considering of the range of polling errors seen in recent elections and relatively large range of outcomes the model showed as plausible. Can the model be precise enough to provide. Meaningful conclusions. Questioning our rays on dacha. I think these models are more necessary than ever right like. The fact that I mean it's okay to there's polling here people started ignored period a couple of lucky years like in twenty meter worker read it like. It's absolutely necessary to measure quantify. How wrong holes to be be repulsed different outcomes right in the fact is a basic story of election process and time again is bite is a fairly at a favorite. And it cinch. But it fairly heavy favorite because you can withstand eight when it sees how well here or perhaps a bit larger. And he still comes out ahead that's exactly what happened so you know. So I think it's Gary Horton. To kind of quantify polling here in ways that are rigorous in ways that are empirical ways that are thoughtful about how. Poll here Ken Corley different states are not you know I think the worst thing we're would be like not just probability threats kind of cute college. Comes in that's a guy you get the models that that polls accurately right. Giving it would be useful polls even just listed agents out of an actual error as stupid now. I mean you know people to ease the fact that like I'm tired all of us. Gamesmanship around with an issue people mean when we hardly contextualize information Ingrid people can. So people in provincial stations learn from numbers Hitler through words right. You learn from stories and narratives and examples like with the various ways seem bright. But it simply liked and members of numbers which people look at numbers we just have to like. Understand where the prisoners in exact you know I mean. I think people could understand that their. Daily life nature. The most part lightly you know when you say oh well better Placer. Radiator out second possible few hundred bucks right. It and it was going to be like oh my gosh you know he does exactly cricket anymore and people acted like now be so. Numbers phobic and like again like a lot of hard work using an injury. Under which the justices polls are relatively more or less on certain we have complicated mathematical things like Electoral College. Have a robust candidates we might be such an obvious play. It's like. The black people are cynical might might have been played appropriate sushi but unfortunately I think like. That what you traditionally are pretty soon are pretty freaking important to the understanding of public opinion right understanding the uncertainty. And the models that others are not the only way. Even midway necessarily that we congress regardless if it is one of the ways right it's all part and parcel overall. Coverage plan right and like if you start acting like we competitive. Duchscherer the problem we're remodeled apartments segregation problems like personal it's just chicken right you know second of all like. That's actually the that you can difficulty understanding it's hard work to that understand. How public understands her abilities. It's hard work to convey in the right way but fundamentally like. That's the currency that we use to talk about uncertainty it is with probability he can't talk about that then the game. The discussion comes completely incoherent anti intellectual at some point. Yes and I will kind of reiterate what you said earlier which is when people question polling usefulness war. You know modeling usefulness and what we're trying to really cute here is understand what the broader American public six and that's a worthwhile call and so trying to make. Polling better is great. Saying that we should throw polling in the trash seems counter to you don't even democratic values which is that what people actually think matters. An alternative may be detergent and Neponset honey for. A week to talk for bunch of people everywhere and not actually gonna get any better of a sense of pennsylvanians were large think if we do that probably our view. Are our overall view of amusements will be much worse than ever just conducted a poll and so try to get it right awesome. Throughout it all the trash and saying that the scientific method and sampling here it is jobs. Seems counter 218. Curious open democratic societies and. Well this it was cooler. Powerful unit pundits write me don't want to be held accountable. They'll be held accountable for others corrective audiences that they would look at polling as soon because you can never be disproved. You know look I would say to light. Although counting wins and losses that. The best meeting papal if you look at the margin if you apples and coal. Quoted quote 48 and fifty states right. In case Alabama's physical that the calling it. Twelve and fourteen weeks it's correctly it's clearly quite useful. And very useful site is perfect no. Like to say that polls we're not useful selection is just an. Crazy hectic. And again what's the alternative visitors look at it I don't know and we built models based wrong. Fundamentals so called you know we had not looked at polling and Altman in order model would have said right it would have been better that in. You know probably feared it murders like that criminals are well thought that corruption. Wrong. Tie in the popular which means there fundamentals model probably it was the intro favored to an Electoral College right. So thank god for polling. To move us away from. Yeah and none of this negates the fact that as journalists we're large we should be covering. Policies and can it behaviors and ideas and old lot of other things have nothing to do with polls public opinion. Modeling but like as far as worthless carpenters we think this is the most accurate and we still think if that's accurate. Regardless of criticism park criticisms post. Yeah. There is so if you wanna get a little bit more deet you don't hear right. Presidential models created by the into the race like it pretty much accurate polls model released in the polls taken at face value and ideas certainty right. Our congressional models. Blatant holds Mor with other indicators. Of exit classic in deluxe versions that we usually work. And there are races we're like. For that congress those fundamentals help the La O was never very bullish on. Jeannie Harrison's here grows there were a little bit more a bullet near 50% right. So you know in terms of like model talking post. We have to submit your coming up first. For the mid term. We really liked the blame that we have a whole other indicators right. What question is a big you wanted. Heads should get more presidential orchestra your blending. Poles with other stuff what you do for congress that we have we have four years to think about that issue. But yet in that in the mr. congress circles we're seeing actually the polls they're open for Democrats that is an indicators are. Therefore there should have reason to hedge. Sets interest. Aren't we got a little sidetracked because Jesse such it date and relevant question to everything we do here but for a bit of a lighter question. Off from Euro the question is why did all the networks called Pennsylvania the same time after one or drop there was only a few thousand protests. And if that's lighter look what's an innocent like. Who was that the luster is like OK if you'll have to pick a time and a place to meet in New York right here communication to beat this person. Tomorrow right you do it right. 12 PM at Grand Central station is like a focal point right I think it became you know that's going oh point 5% recount marching and it became a focal point because I don't know I mean on the what and the network. As that recount margin was half a percent rates are basically that one's vote drop dot Pennsylvania you half a percent in Ivins fever and that's wild ox called. But senate north that would applause look. Here there is. The degree of public perception if you wanna call it politics here Chris Pennsylvania was Cole. 24 hours since. It was call. If not. It will. Write clearly we knew that these mail those are becoming very very heavily for Biden YouTube videos that were right. What's he pulled ahead in Pennsylvania the previous night. Then you know it was pretty cities that you exchange physically wrong. But you know your stretching into balance here the wind and trump is making these. They testicle incorrect claims. There and you don't want to look like years. It colt's future based on its fiscal projections and electoral votes be counted you can with a view for other states. These are even wondering. 1000 chance that you'll want to be wrong you know. So. You know I mean. Was Cole that was in the end the day was. It appropriate technical I would probably a little cedar irony decision and here's what Pennsylvania understates. Arizona agriculture early black box AP. I think you'll live. To talk about it right but like that was a picture sculpture. The entity ultimately elect me what. If you're seeing because like. The fourth wall between. Decision deaths in the rest of the media active status causes. Once was a leader recently as well exists because of 2000 when it was commuter race the networks to cull fla and there are for the election right. And they ms. Coakley pretty typical order twice and that's a colossal. Screw up race. Idiot getting deep decision just more independents than real which are doing. But as of Saturday morning probably were probably you know midday Friday the main story about election. Became why has the respect calls yet it came about the decision desks and the networks. And there's no way a dinner meeting. Twitter getting messages from their friends or emails. You know there's no way they're not. You're sitting out that the year. Timing when to call race is itself. A story right. You know I don't know if there was coordination between different shops right. I assume that's really record at some point. I can't deliberately. Do not contact with the decision to escape. ABC so it will offers news you could hear things through. That we were real or what matters through you know intermediaries like I'm trying to like. Respect their process spotlight. Yet I mean people need populate this. Pennsylvania is callable for a long time it appeared an excuse. To call it. As he's those fears political to it and we temperature was as good excuses as an. Our ball I'm just gonna ask a couple more questions here and we did get a lot more listener questions than this so maybe we can not retire or model talk courts are soon and continued us as we get to it and keep answering questions but. We did get several questions about incumbency. Advantage this one is a little more nuanced yet aspect question for the pot Baird's. Is all the talk talent usually this for incumbent presidents to lose reelection justified considering a rather small number of its target after this race and closer than some expected. You remember all wealth really hard to beat an incumbent anyway. So he gets asked is that. Good announced us. Sick her a question. We are on election to all the back to 1882. Look at. How fundamental incumbency is an equal to 88 and incumbency is meeting as powerful as it was. During parts that it creates a treaty it states that we assume that collected. Two point advantage of its ears like that. So yeah and also you know. Also on. In race for congress to conceive it has been on the decline because they're able working at ways to measure that is real policy used to be although the street a lot of habits you. Kind of charge back and one at the end zone. But yeah sure that incumbency is that powerful advantage. Anymore tickets means that Joseph Biden and can't sleep so easily get elected in 20/20 four. If he's right before. When Atlanta. You know. Both Obama and twelve intrepid twenty the last anti incumbent on the ballot. Beat their holes so you know could there be hip. True incompetent polling here. Maybe because people for the challenger party or more geared up and excited. Maybe that's a possibility. And bus Lee. Is there a way to prove worked his career of some of the voter fraud conspiracy theory is that we've seen using statistical analysis. Well I I I. And seen anything and it rise the level of being worth people's time due to disprove it that you know and I mean do are. I think Adam yeah just to reiterate a lot of the litigation is based on nothing. Britain's courts and six cents par. People are here. Have big believer in light. Be careful look at what. Battles you write you can dignify it strikes certificates and like look at distressing effect you know we're like you. So shortages of exhilaration he analyses were trying to do about them right so be careful with that. I didn't want to look by the way the appropriate polls and overall light. At what effects of mail voting work out details were rejected. Company belts were lost right could implications for what the parties. Tell their voters going forward right and it may explain. A little political here actually two so you know looking at the effects of meal I think is. It's worthwhile art wall. We regard for awhile so let's leave things there and we can figure out when we wanted to do this again. Maybe before too long but that's it for now so. State your name figures for entertaining and a lot of my question as our listeners questions and hopefully they hope answer a lot of what's been on people's minds in terms of polling in fort. Art think you are decent. Talk decision my name is Gayle hunter Toney each hours in the virtual control room Claire editor Curtis is on audio editing. You get a touch right emailing us at podcast at 530 dot com Charles of course greeted us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show beavis or reading or review apple part store or tells on about us thanks for listening and. Yeah yeah yeah. A.

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