What to watch for this week during the RNC | FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight on what to watch for during the 2020 Republican National Convention.
13:23 | 08/24/20

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Transcript for What to watch for this week during the RNC | FiveThirtyEight
Hello and welcome to our first night of coverage of the Republican National Convention here at 538. We've got a big night we also already had a peak day president trump and vice president Mike Pence. Already spoke from Charlotte during the roll call when trump was officially renominated. For president. This evening there's a long slate of speakers ranging from art and trump defenders to some of the more moderate politicians in the party. Anyway cured me to discuss what is epithet ten night and what's up a hat throughout the week at the Republican National Convention. Are managing editor Michael Collins you Micah Allen. And Dylan. Excited for another week about weeknight podcasts and live blogging. What could be more fun than staying up to 2 in the morning talking about politics. With your favorite colleagues on the also exercise is politics editors are Ross since and his Sarah. Did not sure I share Mike this enthusiasm. Tolerate so as I mentioned and it has a big today its last night and we in the press will only found out kind of or the weekend. What to expect over these coming days so my to kick us off what are you expecting. They expect the unexpected. Now this is like I probably the biggest question going into the Republican National Convention is will this be gigantic mass com. Meeting you know it seems like all the planning has been last minute. Even if you're not doing the planning last minute something like this is hard to pull law we we saw that what the Democrats last week right. Also being equal you actually might expect trumpet and the Republicans to to a better job. Planning and programming. At TD day specials like like a convention. But given the fact that everything has been up and me there. Very few details have come out and everything seems that the last minute decisions this whole week could just be a big. Big mess made it won't be but that's that's kind of peak. Big thing I'm looking forward thing. I mean well I guess if we set expectations low they have. Possibility of really making a comeback I mean after all more of the stuff is going to be live and with the crowd. Then during the democratic conventions are people are looking for. In Morton normal show. Maybe they'll get it specifically tonight Sarah where we get it here for. Rates it tonight it's a combination. Votes. Art it traps supporters that he has in congress that the likes someone like Matt gates and Jim Jordan. But it's also feature people like Nikki Haile me or our attempt Scott so trumped supporters but not quite as outright and royal has ski sir George and rate. But it'll also be a combination. Political allies those and his family his own son mall talk tonight and that's something we'll see throughout the week as well in addition to featuring more stories from regular Americans. Remember it with there's a lot of unknowns this evening whether or not they'll be glitches particularly if they do more live events but the RNC trump and his team are taking notes last week and they thought. That these snippets from live democratic voters were good and they're looking to replicate that this week. Yet I'm curious you don't. At the end of last week when we all watch the Democratic National Convention and what are the themes was certainly an appeal to. Swing voters all Americans people are not poetic clean gauged you know as part of the base of the Democratic Party. There was plenty of reaching out to you immediately traditional Republicans we saw that every night. What are we EX acting as a message from the RNC. Or why you know if we don't know what to expect do you think would be the most effective message from the. That's a great question gala and I mean one thing we do now is Jason Miller is a senior advisor on the campaign went on Meet the Press that Sunday and said last week it was a massive grievance fast. We didn't hear about the vision for the future how their policies would help people so in theory that's tipping our tipping their hand that we might see more. Either celebration of successes that the tramp administration wants to highlight from the last four years or more concrete path forward. There was something analysts had on last week as well and talking about the DNC you know did Biden and his attempt to pitch. And that's the candidate of hope and light miss an opportunity to talk more about economic policies and what Democrats are gonna do that was different than Republicans. So I think that. Republicans. Will beep it's unclear to what extent they're going to. Be broadening their base in their appeals are doubling down as we know trump often doubles down. But it does seem as if there's going to be may be a more hopeful tone than he would have struck and 2016. Yeah I would expect things to be wildly. Inconsistent. From speaker to speaker and from night tonight so I think your guy and that's the really. B time both wings of the Republican Party probably trump waiting. In all its glory I don't think will make a lot of appeals to center acting. S air mansion trump has his tendency to double and triple down on his days. But then you will see just from the kind of more normal traditional parts of the party. That. The more standard that appeals to the center. Did the question I have gala which you're kind of getting at in terms of like. Will they make hate you policy argument is the three big issues right now right. The pan Dem Matt. The fight for racial justice and protests and killing them George Floyd. And any economic fallout from the pandemic right. How much does the does. Aren't C meet an argument in each of those I need to this cases right. There's the aren't seem make any argument. That trump has done the president trump has done it a good job responding to the pandemic. I think I'll try to I think you'll see that. Whether or not that argument will be effective. I don't know. I think you'll you'll see them try to make it. I think you'll see them try to make an argument on the economy to. That before the pandemic there was a ton of growth and that was. And that the pandemic what's that site. Shot at the blue. The biggest question to me it's like what kind of message does RNC contained. On racial justice and racial and inequality. On the protests. Or due date just kind of skip that entirely. You know Mike it's interesting that you ask I think as far as the economy is concerned they're probably gonna spend you know needing more time talking about that that's the one area the three issues that you mentioned where trump is above water with voters right. Isn't positive approval is dealing with the economy where something like corona virus it's negative twenty. And on race relations at similar been negative but if you look at the speaker lineup. We're expecting to hear from people like Alice Johnson do trump or you know part and that is a relatively high profile pardon because it was promoted by people like art actually and as part of a criminal justice reform efforts that the White House made wants archer Kushner they get past that like somewhat small criminal justice reform bill I think it will make a pitch that they are. Something of the party have criminal justice reform. Let us into an attacking Democrats pitched a black voters tonight for example can cleats at. Who is running for congress in Baltimore a very Lucy she's not gonna win it but she made his video essentially saying that Democrats on race enters our. All talk and have not actually produced material gains for the black community in Baltimore and I think you know as much as. You know trumped up an average scores on this the Republican Party congress on this in general the got to dive into the issue for sheer. I have a question here kind of wrapping up which is that. After the 2016. Republican National Convention and you know the commentary and press was like that was a very dark show. What America looks light. The with the American Carter's style presentation from Republicans and the tomcats campaign especially when our speech however. Trump got a significant convention bounce and that was like the one moment during the whole campaign where in our forecast trump was favored to win. Over Clinton was heading into Philadelphia convention the Democratic Convention and right after the republicans' convention in Cleveland. How much are we watching for whether or not this can material be changed there the race you know is it. And what what will it take in a sense is that like American carnage is the way to win over. You know. Large swaths of the American public. Never protect polling movement. Rock wise words to live by that someone once told me. I think that. That type of rhetoric. Is less effective than it was in planning sixteen. But likely still effective with Brit. The groups of voters. And so. If the convention in the is. Produced well and and largely comes off without a hitch and if there are compel name. Speech is. Yeah right you would expect a convention counts I think historically. You'd see that this here's a little different because of coded. And the virtual convention. By. You know what it wouldn't be shocking if if trump that it sounds coming out of this convention particularly if that it fits again put together well now. Convention bounce is typically phase right. So the question is more I think what we can learn about. The truck campaign the party. And and its future from this convention both in that sense of like okay. What does this convention tell us about how the trump campaign will precede the rest of that. Rest of the election from here to them of them bear. And what does this tell us about the Republican Party writ large demographically politically ideologically. Grade something we look dad before the conventions year was whites. The polling books like for incumbent presidents and challenger's. And trump actually has the lowest polling numbers going into the convention. Any incumbent president. President since 1968. So he certainly needs accounts to Mike this point there's a lot more uncertainty this year brown what that bounce. We'll look like. And in terms of how he can most effectively make his case you're right Galen that after 26 teen hee-seop bounce in the people's spine convention. But the monkey cage actually ran an analysis back to 1972. Looking at convention speeches. And terms is one of the most negative and yet as you said pretty effective. His mount rush hour speech you know didn't strike quite the same negative tone over the fourth of July so I'm curious if people lean in to that as much as part of the cell as an incumbent president to issue have to look back on the accomplishments of your last administration. And an argument then for why voters should keep you four more years as I'm not sure negativity would work in the same way but it did pay off in twenty sixteenths at something to keep an eye on. Yeah I I have that that they're sending signals that it's going to be this site up be. Convention and I have this got very very hard time believing that now what that is I'll you know our compact time. I'm parents today musical I was wrong but it's is. It's just heart. To see trump order or the larger trump apparatus to Brett. I mean we saw with today's speech truck opened his whole pitch. His speech where Democrats are trying to rig the election. Yeah I think that will be a much more forceful take away that night you know morning is here again. You know the the big caveat to that is what's Airset. Trump is. Losing. Pretty decisively according to polls right now. That could change as plenty of time effort to change the trump does need something to change and so may the maybe there they're convinced to try something you know about the little panacea that aren't well we will see what happens anyway that you so much for taking the time to preview tonight's events this week's events thanks Mike and Sarah. Thank you think's canoe. And a reminder to everyone I'm YouTube to subscribe to 538 here button as part wherever it is subscribed. And also check out our wives like tonight at 530 dot com and subscribe to the podcast property politics pod cast those are all your clogs. Four. This preview anyway it will see more tonight.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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