Transcript for What election stories need to get more coverage | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Anybody else anything on the record before November. Just keep this in the can please Tony Galen. I am 100%. Confident that Joseph Biden just gonna win this election. Cut there. Oh I do want to get something on the record I am 100% confident that president trump is gonna win this election. Okay play play them on that's right after the election. I did not look at. Hello and welcome. Of the 530 politics podcast I'm Gayle injury there are five days until Election Day and close to eighty million ballots have already been cast as were sitting down to tape that's. That's more than half of the overall expected turnout this year. As of today it Thursday are forecast shows Biden. With the best odds he's had so far this year of winning the presidency. We have an 89% chance of court previously has highest or 88%. So not that big of a difference but people who are obsessively. We are refreshing that if you'll see that it got up to 89. Democrats have a 77%. Chance of winning that senate adding 98%. Chance of maintaining control. Fox so today we're gonna check in on the state of the race. But we're also gonna talk about the stories that we think are currently being under clobbered as we head into election. So maybe it's a particular race a court decision ballot measure a polling trend. We're gonna try to catch listeners call on what else they should be paying attention to you as things get out there. And here with me to do that our senior politics writer Perry bacon junior declared. It is the yellow. Likewise also thereabouts is you know politics writer Clare Maloney a cleric Ian. And managing editor market power and mica. Miguel and her on. So. Before we get started as we've said we are committed to wellness on the spot past five days out from election night. This is your visitor checked and house government Daryn. I'm Jason. Who very healthy egregious. Our viewers on YouTube earlier this year it clear and bright green tree and yes there's a lot extension. Who. And Claire Claire is doing Weiler at and I am. My eating habits happy tears that's the election has approached. Yeah I don't think I've conferencing or run this week it's arm and Connery reader Perry tightening in an act. And just ready to be over. It's a mess. Aren't so I mentioned before odds. In the intro what are people me that's Steve of the race at this point in time my morning. I mean like let me let me sort of be the third blunt here. The polling is pretty conclusive that Joseph Biden has a BB lead. Nationally. And he has decade significant lead in swing states I don't think there's. There's any way. I am to spin it otherwise the polls would have to be. Really really wrong. For our president trump to two in this election are in our forecast put. Puts the odds obstacles being that wrong about and about one in tan. Which isn't nothing but. But we definitely are in that territory now where where 2016 right it was. Trumpets his only in normal polling error behind. We are now in that. Trump need today Kate historically the military to witness which could happen but that's but he needs to happen. So a list database today Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer. You know the Biden campaign is in very much like this race is closer than the polls we we don't believe the polls and is suing him and by this much but. Pelosi and Hoyer lift abilities as a drop the act and sin we expect Joseph Biden to win probably on Tuesday. If not probably call on Tuesday if not on Wednesday morning your finally getting some signs. Units need Democrats. Moving away from the sort of the polls might be wrong we're very nervous to sort of saying. What the same thing Mike is saying which is dead either reading have massive polling error or Joseph Biden is in goods in a win pretty handle. It's not just polling right right. If president trump wins this election and again our forecast says there's about a one in ten chance he does. Then I think we. A ton of stuff about how we understand politics given the economic downturn give in the end iMac. That we would just have to basically go back to the drawing board and be like. OK our understanding of how the political system works is. Wildly. Off. What's going on here that's that's the territory where in now. You know exceed. Don't agree with anything global news and talk about the yeah since I was skeptical the economic numbers manner that much in this environment. I'm skeptical that the pandemic is really seems a lot of votes I mean lean toward the more. We have two. And a polarized you know chance and maybe were under counting one and that would assume would only a little changed my sins of light. We need to be better sounding Republicans damn. And not I. Ends I'm dubious the economy like Biden was leading by six or seven. Pretending that you leading 99 or ten now something it didn't matter it did that it's a big yet but it pets. I still being overall if we get up and throw one I would say okay we need to have been better accounting bit. He's not been that sort of knew that they knew the electorate is divided in this a really strong way. Now that's that's Stryker that and we can always be better act I guess I guess from me it's more at night. May be. Electoral coverage at least should not even. Concern itself at all with what is actually happening in the world you know if trump wins this election may be it should just be like. Literally. How many Republicans are there how many Democrats are there and and that's one question. I have given that our theme today it is under corporate stories which will agents here in a minute. Is it our forecasters that Biden a 30% chance of winning a landslide and trump has about 10% chance of winning the election period. A lot of coverage throughout. The past several months have focused a law on 10% chance rate you know trump could still win the polls could be wrong there could be a swing there could be big news event that. Changes things. Have we under clobbered the possibility of the Barton Lance line. So the ends and I think is like literally yes is that. Those possibilities are now being equally covered in an accusing him by a landslide as much more likely was the data says. But in reality like trump meaning would be sexy hugely. Important. Perhaps I'm changing America it seems gene international relations. Perhaps changing making America more autocratic. So in that sense I think a 10% chance of something. Vieri dramatic happening is worth covering in my view more than like. Biden won and he also won Georgian Texas is like interesting electorally. Existing public policy wise in some ways but. Biden winning more states than we thought to be not as important a story it's troubling sight being balances are but I think it's. Off correctly by and it's and cents. Director at that. You're Audrey creditor. They just an instinct that reporters have this human beings not wanna be in Paris strike has a lot of people had and smashed element Easton twenty sixteens I also think it's that Italy. There's certainly the highbrow high salute you. Explanation but also some patients like sheer human fear public. Resting on the Internet yeah I can I think we're gonna get into this more but it it there is a. Lost right to not cut earned. The 30% chance of a bite him landslide right like Adam. That that the landslide which probably means Democrats have to big majority in the senate and house. Looks very different policy wise then that. Dan biting eats it out. Democrats don't take this ad network apparently take that sent. So says they're there is a cost there but it but in general I agree it's like trump winning at such a different world that it is really deserves them. You know investigation and explanation. So you're meeting the argument that trump winning is not really the start score. Or you think that the status quo is dramatic enough that it should be covered over Barton Lance. I think trumpet a second terrorist screening must different in the status quo and I think that he is held back some of his more. You know like the idea of getting rid of birthright citizenship I think it's something you're talking about out there I think trump and a second term will be. Unrestrained. In terms of firing a lot of cabin members it is hard to imagine what you might do. Completely and restrain from electoral consequences. But I think it is up to me have pretty Beers. It's not just status quo my. Carries your week Ullah. I definitely does everyone agree 'cause I I think that is a question like don't the second term what like the status quo. And therefore maybe that's right. People are covering it as much or is it is it mattered. Now I think I think it does look different. And I think. What. And going back to some of the human reasons why people might not be might not as many journalists may be writing about the possibility of a second term term. Is that when you write things. Where you quote experts talking about the things that could potentially happen when trump is like on restricted by electoral consequences. You probably start to get to territory feels a little bit scary for you to reporter and the reader and you might be worried that people will think you're being. Histrionics or alarmist and I think there is legitimately some get trepidation to the two alarm us. But there are that mean we have seen for years of news I mean. What's that old phrase of someone. Shows you who they are then leave it right like I mean Tampa's been for four years we have a pretty good handle on his instincts. To make players point eight I a wrote a little sort keys for our live blog on Tuesday. About what would scrubbed due the second tower. You know at this event I was like oh dear that sounded commitment greatness of alarmist all the things were very realistic and I mean he's gonna fire you know he's going to fire Christopher raids Xena asked bill and other people. Anyone who's sort of like it's try to restrain him. Within the government he's been trying to fire immediately he might be very aggressive with protesters in trying to you know us in federal agents on them which he. Already did in Portland and much more aggressive resident this yelling I wrote a piece I was like I can see why this is this Reeves alarmist but everything. He seems pretty accurate as well yeah. But the and those firings that you're mentioning that's based opera reporting from inside the truck administration ought not just like speculation based off rookie fired a bunch of people in his first term this an actual reporting about what he puts you as a story about the so it's not to read them yes yeah. But the sorry to see the other reason a second trump term if it's trump wins would be different and status quotes remember like. All the evidence we have is that. The American a majority of the American public even though it's it's a somewhat evenly divided nation. And a polarized nation and all the evidence we have is that a majority of the American public does not like trump the precedent right. Trump loss a popular vote in 26 team won the Electoral College since then. Democrats had a very good mid term year and all the pulling we have chose there'd Democrats enter and very well end in two point one. So if instead. Trump. Wins in twenty to Miami then I think we have to reevaluate. Kind of like. What does the American public want what is their tolerance for our firm. Anti democratic action and and an all that kind of stuff are so. I think we have in a roundabout way here said that bull. The appropriate amount of attention is giving is being paid to the 10% chance that trump could win but also. It's been under clobbered what that second term would actually. Is that correct direct out I went right. Has not been a lot of stories and have been like here is trumps policy agenda and a second term I think we should do you can have more of those in less of this sort of I saw seven street signs in Pennsylvania. Into and an approach Robin airports from might win like those stories. We eat fewer of those sort of random speculation that was a large. We yours sorry that is the random speculation that throat might win more about okay trump might win what happens next in it yes. Line and to just to be somewhat of little generous to the media part of that is also. Trump campaign and president trump and south have have. A bit sad very much Adam outright about what they would do in that second term I mean you saw that in the last debate where. The moderator asked several questions that would light specifically. What would you do in your second term on X or Y. And presidents have typically have any answers on that stuff. Or so. We've established that I've also asked fuels here come up waves. You know stories that you think are being under covered. A second term for trump was one of them clear what are you thinking about in terms of other things that you think are being under covered this election cycle. I interested in some of these. Rulings that were seen trickle out from the Supreme Court and some. And state supreme courts in some of those the wording in these decisions from Supreme Court. Our interest slowly back up a Sackett I think this state that could potentially be. The sea route talking about on election night is Pennsylvania. And the Supreme Court I believe yesterday after news. I'm islands together. Basically. Punted a little bit. On a ruling about whether or not ballots. Could be received and counted. He counted when they were received by mail three days after the election which is the current rule in Pennsylvania. And the Republicans were asking the court to decide that question before the election the court said no we can't do that the timeline is too quick. But that kind of left things though it. We've corsets kind of said this this case is still before us you know week I eat because potentially still way and that's after Election Day. And I ties that decision to. The wording in eight brat happen op concurring. Decision in eight Wisconsin case where. Where cap I said. Said that he wants that that. Absentee ballots that flow in after Election Day he said that they could potentially flip. The results of an election which is. Interest in language to use but out. What was another of what people otherwise they got as valid absentee ballots and he also said and this is you know I think acting is. A bit detached from reality. Witches those states also want to be able to definitively announced the results of the election on election. Or as soon as possible there after. As dedicated listeners don't know. We aren't many of the people who media happens Anglican take longer to probably to know the results of the election this Aaron because it. So I think there some interesting signals being sent. From the court system and if we do see. Disputes and in a state like Pennsylvania witches it was simply. Enter what's the model states like that are likely to report. And so I think that that is a really. Interesting story that has. A little bit of the barrier to entry because as with all Supreme Court cases. It's it's shouted and in circuitous. Decisions that are all kind of coming together and there's lots of stuff to keep track of but I do you think it's a potentially. Com really big story. Yeah for sure and maybe it's supplied some more context year I think. In general leading up to this election Democrats have tried to extend the period of time. By which boards of election. Karen except now ballots because more people are voting by mail. And we also assault over the summer some mail processing times increase answer there was generally not worry. Democrats in states around the country tried to extend that deadline Republican sued choose not extend that deadline and so. And part of this is also the Democrats expect more their borders to broke my mail and these have been making Richard the state court's activist Supreme Court. You know I'm curious from Perry and Mike ask how much you guys see this ultimately. Prospecting this election or setting certain precedents for further down the line as to how much states. Control over a barrel rolls of persons vs courts the Republicans. On him and state supreme courts and the Republicans on the US supreme court's. And in the Republicans and federal courts seem to. Basically be taking the view that state legislators right election long and Danny cannot really be changed hands. In a lot of cases the choices. Can we meet voting unit in giving easier or harder. It is not clear to me why harder keeps being shows the president is now being said it. A state legislator. You know in Florida Texas that's right back to Republican state. Does a lot of it only seems immune lest they say. We are making it harder for a black and Latino people two votes. And they can only voted this one location. It'll be viewed as the legal limitation. Not an illegal when it is looks like we're moving toward phase in which these skepticism about. You know even in the 1960s wasn't as if states often said black people cannot vote. You know and so we're getting to the point where everything is legally seven and it looks like the quartz. Kavanagh opinion. Did Nazis yes he knows how elections work. Did John roberts' opinion from when he struck down parts of the voting rights act suggest that you know how race in America work. They're acting like reporter Republican partisans on not being you know history of voting in the country. And we should note here that. Those justices are products. The bush administration. And the Bush Administration. And did a lot I think to. Pioneer. Some of what we seen out Beasley modern. Is pervasive. And a real worry. I mean what's so interesting is that obviously we all know about the 2000 election and the sort of voting stuff that happened there but there was also and I believe Missouri. Aid. Election of John ashcroft's election. Which he lost which he tried to say. The Democrats committed voter fraud there so so and he obviously became Bush's attorney general. So so this is something that is the ground work had been laid for a lot of this stuff for a couple of decades. I think in each insure earnest but certainly claims of voter fraud democratic voter fraud have been linked to. You know democratic cities. Lack parts of the country you're black parts of states and cities and and it's obviously. Got ritualized. Overtones undertones towns would everyone say. So it's the yeah. Yeah I'm the only way to. Earth for elections to hold people power accountable is this day accurately reflect the will of the people in the well to people. It's responsive. To. Whatever's happened right now M. We we have this history and we cede more now. In some respects. Essentially the these years up democracy being. Ben dense viewed. In a way that the kind of raw input the American well is then. Twisted it in to something else although we should saying. I think overall Ian vessel accidentally 20/20. On average it has become easier to vote and we may well see what the results of that. Looks like once we start getting ballots that I mean I think we're expecting. Record breaking turnout and more people than ever before have been able to vote early and by absentee ballot by mail ballots. This election itself may well be an example of what Americans. Want the American broke looks like when more people have the opportunity to borrow. Yes and and we should be clear by. One potential story line coming out of this election and it is. That. Sort of them democracy clocked back right. That politics is so much a part of our pop culture now I mean and thinking a lot Alec. The ways yes that we tempest change politics is trying to change the Republican Party to sleep at trump has changed people's treatments. In with politics immediate really has permeated. Every part of the culture. And it's. Yeah the fat what's means that the turnout is projected to be how many millions more than 2016 which is art Ian incredibly high. It's or historically turnout election it's. The somewhere ups are reporting million more than when he sixteen or even more potentially just comments. Are so on the topic of undercover stories in the 20/20 election and Claire heard from you. About. Some of the litigation and opinions coming up from the Supreme Court Perry we talk a little bit about how policy trumps policy in his second term. Might be under covered. Michael what are you thinking in terms of war could be under covered this cycle. So. Mine is much mourned our then the health of our democracy atom. Writ large said let me just say that up front. Specifically minus just like. A pretty specific polling trend that I just fine in trusting. I'm. And that cuts against. A lot of the other polling data worse seeing. Namely the fact that many voters. From one. Do not really seemed to blame president trump for the economic. Downturn Adam. And still. Thinks the presence up as well equipped to handle the economy I'm. Those polls that asked likely to you think it's better two lead on the economy and show were roughly even race between Biden and trump. Sometimes. When you session today trumpets a few percentage points ahead. But one result that really really stood out to me kind of speaks to this and I'm quite sure what to make that announcement yeah I am. Is Gallup asked people you know would you say you in your family are better off now and you wore four years ago. Or are you worse off in mid September of this year 56%. Of registered voters sent they were better off. So this is in the midst day. And dynamic and economic downturn. That number is is. Pretty pretty stunning to me and an item item I'm not quite sure what to make that but it seems undercover. Will also. Isn't it surprising given the historical context too that. Every other time it now has asked that question. It's been below a majority like a minority of Americans have said they were off four years ago. Yes on its funny twelve. I'm. Seven twin prop after the election it was 45%. In 2004 before the election was 47%. In 1992. Before the election it was 38%. And and in the summer of 1984. Few months before it was 44%. So. I don't know I think there are few ways to read this right but one is. So one is just site. Partisanship. That some Republicans answering this question I think probably interpret it SA. As a referendum on top ants have probably. Pretty universally say there they're better off. Am then add in the people who genuinely think there are better off and yet 56%. And maybe that's like the simplest answers the answer is actually a really interesting number we're right. Via. It almost makes mean. Yet I mean. So if if president trump wins the election and people will. Go back and point that this number answer day. Point that this number and put that trumps approval ratings on the economy and is who do you think is better able to and the only time you point that those numbers and say see. Week week we should have now right now it seems like what Perry said earlier which is just that Adam. People's economic. Circumstances. And the economic reforms of the country over all the sort of becoming more and more divorced from. You know how they vote lecture and but if presidential winds tonight things. You know we'll look back at this number daylight. You know that's interesting is it also doesn't. Issue of granting I mean. When you talk to voters who like trump. Solemn Obama to trump voters in 2016 for example oftentimes they stress that he's a businessman. You know that they sought trump I was you know. A self made billionaire somebody who made themselves from a million or to a billionaire. Is it like trump branding. As a part of those I mean I'm just curious. I'm YA. Bidders. I'm I'm sure that maybe that is part of it but also it looked like. Before the ten dam act. V. Economy was doing really well now we can have a debate about how much credit. President trump deserves for that or how much credit any president deserves for any economy right. But from that perspective of the vote are the economy was doing really well for a lot of people not all people. The pandemic head. Truck there is so much to criticize in Trump's response that depend iMac. But I think maybe for a lot of voters state don't state frankly don't see that pandemic as Trump's faults of this the am. And so you know date day they look at all that thing oh yeah effect if I want some months. Yet the home of this economy. After the pandemic. President trumpet cents. So we'll see the election today and of them some scholars and writing about the Fed their view that. Economic performance is increasingly separate from electoral outcomes basically that's ten in my view is like. It would actually makes sense that voters don't blame the economic turn downturn from the pandemic Armstrong because I think the economy. Would decline if Biden Obama Mitt Romney. Like there was gonna there's and it went everywhere that that this should be that is of course and it happened like you can blame each truck I think that pandemic and the pandemic. Recession are related. But I think. Blaming strong pro life not encouraging mass swearing at the lot easier. In blaming trump for unemployment going up as a close lot of businesses and I think Joseph Biden or anybody else would have done so this is I think the voters are looking at this. What rational. Although the better off than you were four years ago I wonder if people's minds automatically coach you economics on that question because it doesn't explicitly say elect. Are you better off economically than you were four years ago is just overall at presumably people are. That's the part that that's a part that just I don't understand. But I guess I guess of people are thinking about economically or accidentally. Mead years. Lack eaten. Economic of the economic effects of the pandemic repeat that these peep. Who are registered voters like. Or I don't know it's just not it's not. Interpretation potentially the question the other path somewhat weird result from from back Gallup polling. It is. Not that many people mention the economy. As as a top one of the top most important issues time. At least relative to where that number has been historically witches witches really high now. There's there is an explanation for that right now I'm. There's and I met you know a lot of people in the polls cited the government port leadership of the people cited race relations racism. I'm. But it's it's the the economy is sort of like this. It's always the biggest issue and I am. And as Perrier was saying. Both for like structural reasons maybe to top economic performance is becoming more divorced from electoral outcomes but also to throw light. Going on in the country reasons maybe it's it's not at the top of voters' lists right now. Disciples questioned the question is. Would you say you and your family are better off now than you worked for years ago or worse now. I wonder you and your family does sort of primary on the economy mania wrong as industry. That had to read about the question however you know levels of resolute will to but I think. I I and mealy out of the economy to and I think most evolving economy has been decent an extra. A terrorism. And original so say event deuces. One poll from one firm and you know it is a notable was present when you compare historically which we often do you across the single poll but you know. There's other data that we can look tears Welch you explain our current political environment so. Let's get to you Terry what is your under covered story. So I'm so we talk of his or restart its oval. Deduct two things quickly but the first is California has all these ballot initiatives in this is not uncovered story. But I think California considering how much of the country lives in that state is will be undercover. So California has the read big propositions that I think we'll go to the question of like. You know California's tennis center of liberal America middle go to the question of like how left his California. So one of them is up proposition sixteen. We seeks to repeal. You know currently in California law in California and he six negated six being the operative accident college admissions. In the awarding of government contracts in 96 California have been an emperor of actions of the is now I was into until allow that to be used again. And that's basically divided in the polling evenly so it looks like you know Gary you know liberal Californian me. Reject affirmative action. Second ballot initiative which is propped 22. The state of California the legislator the governor. Enacted a law that would basically forced labor and lift and companies like dead. To treat the people who work for them as some of formal employees. With benefits. But who relived to training yet turn you referendum as to get rid of that law so again like. You know those of Maginnis Reza like. Will the California voters a line witness who were lifting those companies or with a more populist view. Of policy. And the third is proposition 22. And RS another Protestant fifty. And prop that he would basically make it easier to raise property taxes. For commercial properties in California so again it raises the issue of like California's pretty left a will there's an exit when a raise taxes are not so. That's Kennesaw elect Al leftist California that's in releasing subject in this these things on altering. Pair acting this is like. I think this is such interesting debate and also it's if people. You know one extrapolate the dynamic Patrick national level. You know if there is you know if the Democrats DT control government I think some of these same dynamic start to come into play I wrote a piece about Dianne Feinstein. Couple years ago. And a person who worked in California government tablet with Sinn. All of California politics are basically about lake. It's like renters verses owners dynamics right like you know they're sick there's a certain level public. Wealthy liberal generally like white people who maybe have socially liberal. But you know establishment socially liberal ideas but who are not populists who aren't not you know who are not down with blowing up the system. And I think that that's that's like if you you know people EU. You magnified and that's like the entire debate with in the Democratic Party now so that dynamic is super interest at. And in fact. Voters in 32 states will decide 120. Statewide ballot measures on November for it. According to recount from out. A lot of these things from you know legalizing one there's redistricting ballot measures there are other things relating Q. Elections like top to top four primaries. Campaign contribution limits. You know public grotto is considering whether or not Jordan that national popular vote interstate compact where the winner of the popular pro. Is who you're at a soccer electors to there's all kinds of things I can tell missiles are considering. Whether an excellent felons vote. So that there aren't and there are important issues on the ballot across the country. But again coming back to you this what we're seeing Ian California. Do you have a sense Perry oh waiter. The voters fair or are eating and in meeting some indication of where the Democratic Party heads as a result. So it looks like the if bringing back a permanent action is likely to news. It looks like that the property the tax bill is really close since and that's that's missing and and it looks like. The so deregulating. Mover and lists might texts so those are also these at all so wouldn't you might have that the read more. Conservative stances all weekend it's possible he's the polling an all these things is all fairly close so I think it's like hard to know yes. The deregulation stuff of Cooper analysts I actually and that's surprising. Knowing nothing about. Campaigns these ballot measure straight out in part because there's been such. Anti big tack a nineteen kind of put those companies under that umbrella because they are tech companies. There's been a real like. Bipartisan. We don't we think big tech is the new evil thing in America movement over the past couple of years and I kind of think it's going to be. They dynamic in. 20/20 one in Washington kind of no matter who who wins the election. So it's interesting like at surprises me a little bit that that the Nina potentially a more conservative position on that the real thing Linda prevail. And it also prism or context here this is the most expensive ballot initiative. In the history of the unit at its. Meaning of the two companies are putting out of money so one reason they might win is because they're spinning a lot of money to win this fight was like there yet and there in the polling is suing. The religious things you really are likely to win this that is one of the polling is the least close in the actually correct may elect her to win this. Yeah I think those companies like lift Hooper was meets its outer have contributed 200 million. And that overall ballot initiative spending in California according to out PDAs 700 million meaning like. We think of I guess we'll only four years ago we thought of like a presidential campaign ads costing about a billion dollars so just on ballot measures alone. California's quickly approaching them spending on these measures are you imagine you have one more tidbit that you wanted to Mets. At another apartment in on the deal and I talked about this were the podcasts the recipients over the go to our short list of things give these these are things that are undercover gonna make sure there are all mentioned. At least once I suppose so. We talked about redistricting and the overall in. And the overall state legislator elections are always under covered but that's a huge story for two reasons one redistricting. And two because you have the potential us states that are. Maybe maybe it's right that is now now being tracked that as army coming right that is the biggest area I would say is. These ladies the state legislator in Texas. Might flip to the Democrats Adobe big story that happened on Election Day. Yeah I absolutely Tara I think. A in 2000 and and the years afterwards a lot of Americans didn't realize how much control of political maps and their four congressional delegations. Were determined by the outcome of that you when he ten mid terms I think that people aren't little more aware now. Because of the gerrymandering battles that went to Supreme Court and all of these different ballot measure that calls or gone to the public over the past decade. But I bought I mean. Of course we do to census every ten years Africa sent the year after the census we you redistrict art state legislative and congressional boundaries right. And so after twenty tan. Republicans were in control of drawing did see expert 55%. Of congressional districts in America Democrats were in control ten. And to give people somewhat of a picture of what that. What things look like this year and how much of control of redistricting. Is acts state on right now when he 7% of house districts are likely to it be drawn by Republicans. 11% are likely to be drawn by Democrats. And then 30% by independent commission's work Democrats and Republicans worked right so that gives you were total you know. Roughly 70% that is another 30% of congressional districts who gets to draw them or whether or not the two parties actors you know Courtney. Is opt for the public to determine. In the 20/20 elections. So you know that's a lot of 30% out of congressional seats at sports but also state legislative seats. Is it lot of a lot of power that's on the ballot Tom Ian. This election and again we'll see I I personally am curious if you know when Democrats probably have more control over redistricting in this round if they choose to an act. These kind of bipartisan or nonpartisan independent redistricting commissions. War if today you know decided to gerrymandered themselves adds both parties have a long history gearing. In America that it received meat will do some some followup officer of the gerrymandered project as longtime listeners will remember for three years ago at this point. But I yes redistricting is update thing that we have not yet talked about the cycles are just wanted to to put. So. We didn't talk about what the digital Biden be elected a Republican says no obviously because then it becomes a question. How does his can't negate confirmed of the confirmed at all Kinney navy that is in court. Another relayed issue might be Biden's promised to name the first black woman of the stream court. I do think in a normal year with normal kid has never been a big thing where you're talking about. What black on my name. Is Stephen Breyer leaving that can I think that's an undercover story probably. The senate races in its Kansas Montana and Alaska have been pretty close. And navy probably deserve more coverage and maybe Jeannie Harrison's ultimately get and a little too much coverage. We have the first Asian American and vice presidential nominee or Brothers and I mean Pamela Harris. I think she's been covered a lot as a black woman nominee not as much as an Asian American that's a star is probably under covered. Lastly I would say is like the idea this. We have the governor Chris states. Was was there's a plot to kill her the end leader the other party had an event this sort of taunted her I just think. The idea that he did in Michigan as a debated over the you can bring guns to. Polling locations. I think the polarization. Has been covered a lot. Powell potentially. Dangerous I think we're getting has not been covered as much as I think it looking back it's like the the depths and the danger of it I think this may be a little under appreciated. Sit sit just echo a couple things Perry said I I could not agree more that night. Partisan polarization gets plenty of coverage. But much of that coverages site. Oh isn't it a shame how this has grind did everything to halt to weights of which parts impose polarization. Creates truly truly dangerous circumstances. And I am for preferred democracy but also for our. Just bad circumstances. Her shirt turned. Term. People you know. Do you you know the Michigan example of really really comes to the four year fight I really cannot agree with MR and then. Also I would I would also echoed what repairs had about coverage of Harris you know it it is somewhat typical far. Four vice presidential nominee you get like a rush of coverage when their first names and and that kind of state to the background but Harris as the first Asian American and a and a major party ticket as the first black woman on a major party ticket. And on a ticket with. With and eight presidential nominee who is really freaking old. I feel like Harris her background her views the historic nature of her nomination. Shouldn't balk on mark yeah I don't say we've also. Gotten messages from listeners asking us. To talk about power the Asian Americans are processing the election and a particular focus on the historic in nature Colin nurses nomination. This is a week I've written up some of the polling on. Asian Americans on the web site they may cover up four point 7% of the overall electorate. And it the breakdown is some I mean again it's kind of crazy to think of Asian Americans as an monolith because. The you know viewpoint diversity is truly massive raging from. Vietnamese Americans who were overwhelmingly Republican. Two you know South Asian Indian Japanese Americans who overwhelmingly democratic but overall if you look at some of the pulling that we have at our exits and our colleague throughout Massa wrote a piece on this on the website that the people to protect our. Roughly its two thirds democratic one for Republican. Depending on on the dias but again people should read more. Are we even going for a while but I just want to say. Before we jump off the line here does anybody else want to get anything on the record before you know we're now five days away from the election. It's kind of a speak now our rhetorical sorties kind of moment. Something that you're thinking about oh I do before it's just November. Just keep this in the canned please Tony Daylon. I am 100%. Confident. That Joseph Biden it's gonna win this election. Cut there. Oh I do wanna get something on the record I am 100% confident that president trump is gonna win this election. OK let's look at the if you look at that you could just say it but the I mean. Play play them one that's right after the election. We've been thinking that you think. School. All right thanks everybody I think you might cat Claire and Perry for parishioners and thinks he guys. And I should mention before we go. Listeners should get a check out the store property it sort and it's at 530. Slash store all kinds of Fides fox sweat shirts and bags then you know. I mean I don't know how much hogwarts going to be around I don't know fighting fox. Is around all year are just around the elections but people shouldn't we protect it out. At 530 dot com slash store. But anyway my name is Gayle hundred Tony chow is in the virtual control room. Claire editor Curtis is on audio editing you get in touch by emailing us at podcast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show beavis of Reading or review in the apple podcast or or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening panels and. Okay.
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